Spring 2018: General Discussion

NAGDEFI

Emmm. Where to start.

It's going to be an 'unseasonable' start to the season:)

nacho libre

If only all springs started off like this!

NAGDEFI

0.00am March 1st 2018 Met Station Temps

Rock Lesnar

Lads sorry to talk about a thaw after this snow, but after 2 days of constant heavy streamers and the potential of this storm later, im all snowed out now.

When do ye expect a thaw, and do ye think it'll be rapid or slow, im hoping slow, because i'd be worried about flooding here if its the other.

nacho libre

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Lads sorry to talk about a thaw after this snow, but after 2 days of constant heavy streamers and the potential of this storm later, im all snowed out now.

When do ye expect a thaw, and do ye think it'll be rapid or slow, im hoping slow, because i'd be worried about flooding here if its the other.

It will be a slow thaw. I'd love if we kept on to -12 uppers or below, but it's not going to happen. If there is a reload of cold we will still see a gradual thaw due to the stronger sun. We need exceptional cold- which we have currently - to prevent a widespread thaw, sadly, one way or the other, we will lose that through the weekend.

NAGDEFI

Has anyone a link to last night/this morning's minima temps?

sryanbruen

NAGDEFI wrote: »

Has anyone a link to last night/this morning's minima temps?

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/969117529770790912

Pandora!

Snow in Spring, what a beautiful thing!

Rock Lesnar

Its bucketing snow here nearly non stop since tuesday evening, had a brief respite yesterday morning for about 3 hours but since then its been snowing, have to admit, while i enjoy the snow, and the kids love it, i have had enough now, just want it to stop.

Clonmel1000

Is it ok to post here about a longing for nice dry bright mild weather that spring fills me with hope of delivery. This cold is miserable too cold to go out to dangerous to get to work country closed down and heating bill rising.

nacho libre

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

. This cold is miserable too cold to go out to dangerous to get to work country closed down and heating bill rising.

I have managed to get around it. I drove on untreated roads to and from work. If you wrap up well you can go out in it. Hopefully it continues well into March.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

I have managed to get around it. I drove on untreated roads to and from work. If you wrap up well you can go out in it. Hopefully it continues well into March.

If it means a good Summer then yes please. If not, then it can get lost.

OldRio

To be honest the last 2 weeks have been grand here in Leitrim. Cool but DRY and sunny(ish).
Spring bulbs in flower. Looking sad at the moment.

The land was drying out but God knows what will happen after the thaw.

Agree about the main general event thread. Ugly looking brute of a thing.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

If it means a good Summer then yes please. If not, then it can get lost.

Well it won't be very mild next week on current guidance. A gradual thaw, but more snow is possible later in the week. We will have our one day of Summer, don't worry:p

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Well it won't be very mild next week on current guidance. A gradual thaw, but more snow is possible later in the week. We will have our one day of Summer, don't worry:p

Like it doesn't even need to be fantastically warm for me to consider it a great Summer. The best of Summers to me are those with nice sunny days with pleasant temperatures around 20c like 2010 or 2014. However, I wouldn't complain about a July 2006 or 2013!

Artane2002

I would take an exceptionally cold and snowy winter over an exceptionally warm and sunny summer. I don't really ask much for here in summer. Just sunshine is enough for me. The long evenings are amazing when there are clear skies. An example of the weather I would take during summer is May 2017 or that late May/early June fine spell 2016. Plus I'm not in the country much during summer which means I ask for a lot more during winter than summer (except last summer where I went nowhere). Even the late June 2017 spell is good but a bit too hot for me.

sryanbruen

Since I've asked multiple times for my Spring 2018 forecast to be moved to this thread from the other thread and no response to doing so, I decided to repost it.

Due to the current events in the atmosphere, I think that many of us have forgotten that meteorological Spring begins in 2 days time from me writing this. However, that doesn't mean I have as I've been working away here on my Spring 2018 forecast for you guys. As usual with these long range forecasts, they're highly experimental and should not be relied upon, they're just for fun. In these forecasts, I give my predictions as well as explain where I get these predictions from and my methodology I use to forecast the season. Hopefully, Spring 2018 will be easier to forecast here than Winter 2017/18. Now let's get into this.

Firstly, I'm a talk about solar activity. The effects of solar activity on the Spring are much more complicated and less certain than Winter. In case nobody knows, it has been researched that the coldest of Winters or most blocked Winters occur before, during or after solar minimum. Solar minimum is the point where solar activity is at its lowest and there are lots of spotless days on the sun. Years of solar minimum of previous solar cycles include 2008/09, 1995/96, 1985/86, 1976/77 and 1964/65. The effects on Spring are much less clear. However, the reanalysis charts and data of the Springs directly before the solar minimum do show some interesting probabilities which go along very nicely with reanalysis charts of other factors on historical Springs to match the methodology we have here for Spring 2018. The overall Spring pattern looks rather blocked with high pressure in the Norwegian Sea from Greenland to Scandinavia. There is a trough to the south of Ireland and the UK. Normally when you'd look at this, you'd think easterly winds. However, the trough maybe a bit too deep and too north for easterly winds to take place. Then again, it's kind of a battle between the zonal westerlies and the easterlies against each other in the kind of setup the reanalysis shows. In terms of the monthly reanalysis charts, this is what they show:

- March; High pressure extends from Iceland down to the southeast of Europe with a trough centred just to the north of Spain. As there is high pressure over to the southeast of Europe all the way back to Iceland, it could only mean southeasterlies which cannot really be defined in March of what they'll bring. The temperature reanalysis shows rather below average temperatures across the board up to the north of Ireland, Scotland is around average close to that high pressure. Quite a bit surprised with the temperature anomalies given the setup, southeasterlies aren't exactly fantastic in March for warmth or cold.

- April; Low pressure builds to the north and west of Ireland and over Scotland with a weak ridge of high pressure to the south of England. Looks like a very typical April month and nothing out of the ordinary. Lots of April showers, rather unsettled, rather mild.

- May; There is a big block of high pressure to the north which extends through Ireland all the way down to the Azores. There is a trough way to the southeast of Europe and way out in the Atlantic. To me, this just looks very settled and warm. However, there are a few Mays in there that aren't exactly the best like May 1995 which was dull and rather unsettled with close to average temperatures for example. May 2008 in comparison was very warm and sunny.

Solar activity is a very mixed picture!

The stratosphere has been behaving very oddly recently with a major sudden stratospheric warming that occurred from the 11th-13th February. This brought record breaking reversed zonal winds dropping down to as low as -30 m/s. This meant that northern blocking was to take place and easterlies would form at some point - as they are now since it's been over 2 weeks since the event occurred. This had split the Polar Vortex into two. This major warming was succeeded by a Canadian Warming which occurred just a week later on the 18th/19th February. The temperatures of this warming were even higher than the sudden stratospheric warming of the previous week leading to again another plunge in zonal wind speeds breaking records again. According to some stratosphere experts, the impacts of the Canadian Warming won't be felt until the second half of March. Today, according to the JMA chart of 30hPa in the stratosphere, another warming event has occurred. This warming was slightly more intense than the major SSW but not the Canadian Warming. This is all incredibly interesting and will only lead to more research on the subject, it doesn't make my job any easier.... the impacts from the Canadian Warming do look likely personally for the second half of March as the ensembles are picking up on a downwards trend of the zonal winds through that period after a recovery around early to mid-month. The effects on this third warming have yet to be seen and we will have to see come closer to the time. Remember that the minimum time for a stratospheric warming to propogate down into the troposphere and have effects on the patterns is around 10 days.

The QBO for Spring 2018 is easterly. This in other words means that a negative NAO will be easier to take place as historically, negative NAO is normally easier with easterly QBO events than westerly QBO events. That's not to say we can't get positive NAO in easterly QBO though just like how it's not to say we can't get negative NAO in westerly QBO. The reanalysis charts of Springs following easterly QBO Winters show very similar results to the above on solar activity I've described. There is one key difference though and that is May which seems like a very poor month with a trough just over us and northern blocking bringing very wet, very cool, very unsettled, dire conditions.

ENSO is expected to go down to neutral during the Spring but it still currently stands within the weak La Nina threshold. Once again, ENSO produces similar results to QBO and solar activity on Spring 2018 historically although more in line with the QBO in regards to May.

It seems there is quite an agreement among the methodology for a very mixed Spring here in 2018, March being cold and blocked, April being typically mild and unsettled whilst May being dire OR very settled if you consider solar activity into the equation.

Due to the agreement, I have no chance but to agree with them. This is a far simpler season to forecast than Winter 2017-18 it seems due to less deviation in the methodology. That's not to say, it'll be right though because long range forecasting is very experimental and it's very RNG based for being correct.

To summarise:

March - Cold overall (cool start, cool end with a "milder" interlude mid-month) with perhaps rather dry and dull conditions.
April - Rather mild, close to average sunshine and unsettled.
May - Very wet and cool.

Like with May 2017 when I had a very similar prediction to May 2018 here, I hope I'm wrong about May! I hope it does not turn out like that, I dread a month like May 2015 again.

Dublinlady1513

sryanbruen wrote: »

Like it doesn't even need to be fantastically warm for me to consider it a great Summer. The best of Summers to me are those with nice sunny days with pleasant temperatures around 20c like 2010 or 2014. However, I wouldn't complain about a July 2006 or 2013!

I was 8 months pregnant in July 2013
I mostly stayed inside because it was colder in the house than outside.
It turned me off summer completely. I can now smell the sun on a nice morning and I hate it!
Due a baby in June this year, so hoping its not exceptionally hot this summer.

sryanbruen

February 2012....... :rolleyes:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/969607674085167104

sryanbruen

wakka12 wrote: »

No reason to believe this its just complete hope really but is climate change or anything possibly going to make events like (not as bad obviously ) this more common in ireland maybe? Solar minimums I heard somebody talking about..is sudden stratospheric warming becoming more common or is that an even that just randomly occurs with no pattern?

I'm replying to this comment here as I feel it's more appropriate to. Yes, I was that somebody you heard talking about solar minimum. Solar minimum is expected to take place at the end of 2018 or in 2019, it's just around the corner and our coldest Winters (all the fantastic ones you know of - 1990-91 is an exception to this showing that you don't need to be around this period of the solar cycle to get cold Winters with other teleconnections setup correctly) occur before, during or just after solar minimum. I've given lots of examples in previous posts before including the famous four (or infamous depending on your point of view) 1946-47, 1962-63, 1978-79 and 2010-11 (2009-10 can get overshadowed).

Sudden stratospheric warming as we know right now is a random occurrence, it has no patterns to it. It can have years after one another or it can take a few years before one happens again. The 2010s has been a limited decade for SSW events, they've taken place in February 2010, January 2013, March 2016 and February 2018. The 2000s had a higher frequency of SSW events though the 1990s were as poor as the 2010s for them.

Captain Snow

Lots of Great Photos of the big snow event coming in.

Feel free to add them in at the link below:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057845112

JCX BXC

First time a spring thread wasn't started until 1hr 30mins before spring?

Birdnuts

I love the idea of a nice May - I always take leave at the end of May and since at least 2010 its always been a solid week weatherwise

sdanseo

Reading MT's latest update, this winter may have a final ace up it's sleeve!

JCX BXC

Perhaps we could have a scenario like 2010 and get a second extreme snowy spell at the start of winter at the end of this year?

*Disclaimer: won't happen

hatrickpatrick

JCX BXC wrote: »

Perhaps we could have a scenario like 2010 and get a second extreme snowy spell at the start of winter at the end of this year?

*Disclaimer: won't happen

*Disclaimer: Feck off, it's already ramping time around here

Clonmel1000

Was hoping to wake up to a thaw today no such luck.Freezing cold snow everywhere. It’s actually started snowing lightly again.

Rock Lesnar

Well its finally stopped, doesnt seem to be a thaw here in north east meath, and really hope its slow when it comes, flooding could be an issue here, was out walking there and it feels bitter, i taught our road got it bad, but there are drifts on roads around us that are at least 6 to 7 feet deep, and stretch from anything from between 25-50 yards even longer, in places, met a farmer trying to clear some of them to get to his livestock, he says in his 67 years, hes never seen anything like this before.

Bring on some nice sunny spring weather now

Artane2002

Once this snow thaws, I'd love this to happen:

March: Very cold and sunny
April: Very cold and sunny
May: Warm and sunny

If I remember correctly, March and May 2012 had a warm, sunny spell but relatively cold nights. That would be fine too.

Surprisingly, I thought back and realised that I'm good at chasing nice spells of weather when I'm going on holidays. I managed to spend a week in central London in March 2013 with ice days and and snow. Our flight was delayed by a good few hours. There was an exceptionally warm March (warm spell) over there a few years ago and I was there at the time too. I even saw a few thunderstorms in August 2014 there. This sounds crazy but I remember some time in late March or early April it was snowing in Dublin but it was mild/warm and sunny in London a few years ago.

If I go to London later in March or early April (probably won't), some nice, warn, sunny weather would be great.

Clonmel1000

Could we not wish for a mild and sunny March and April and then a hot summerðŸ‘Don’t get the obsession with it being cold. Ok it’s obv better than the rain but this is a terrible start to spring for me. Trapped indoors effectively for 3 days now.

Artane2002

Cold weather is just nice for me. I struggle to sleep when it's warm. A cold room while I'm wrapped up in blankets just feels nice and cosy.

Clonmel1000

Ah yeah that’s fair enough but for me this a nuisance I love the warm weather great for gardening beach sports etc. I always think of spring here from mid March on weather wise.

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

Once this snow thaws, I'd love this to happen:

March: Very cold and sunny
April: Very cold and sunny
May: Warm and sunny

If I remember correctly, March and May 2012 had a warm, sunny spell but relatively cold nights. That would be fine too.

Surprisingly, I thought back and realised that I'm good at chasing nice spells of weather when I'm going on holidays. I managed to spend a week in central London in March 2013 with ice days and and snow. Our flight was delayed by a good few hours. There was an exceptionally warm March (warm spell) over there a few years ago and I was there at the time too. I even saw a few thunderstorms in August 2014 there. This sounds crazy but I remember some time in late March or early April it was snowing in Dublin but it was mild/warm and sunny in London a few years ago.

If I go to London later in March or early April (probably won't), some nice, warn, sunny weather would be great.

A Spring like 2010 would do me any day! Very sunny with rarely a day without sunshine, March and April being some of the sunniest on record, very cold nights that made for comfortable sleeping, long dry spells in both March and April followed by what was one of my favourite warm spells of all-time, near late May 2010. I reached 27c on 23 May 2010. It was up to 16 hours of sunshine. Absolutely fantastic!

This Spring and May then was followed by what was my favourite June! Again plenty of sunshine, very warm but not hot - lots of days around 20c. When it was raining, it was lashing out of the heavens, not boring uneventful crap.

Are you seeing a pattern here? I love sunny months which 2010 was notable for! Every month in 2010 was sunnier than average (for most parts) bar July and no other year can compete with that for Ireland, even the likes of the other sunniest years such as 1955 or 1975.

To this day, I still try to find the words to say how good and special 2010 was to me and that no year can beat it. It wasn't all about the snow and cold! It was also about nostalgia, the childhood memories, the sun, things I did etc.

Knock Airport has been having some unusually dull conditions since 2014 and I think it's overdue a sunnier than average year like come on, the totals it has been having are ridiculous.

You can call me weird all you like but I have a strange liking for Winter 2011-12..... I know right :pac:. Why the hell would I like this Winter? It was dull. It was mild. It was wet for some. Seems like the definition of a "bad" Winter to me yet I like it for some reason. I do not know why :P.

I did love March 2012 but..... would I want to repeat it and have a Summer like 2012? No thank you.

Donegal Storm

I love heat as well and far prefer summer to winter overall (or at least the idea of summer) and I'm usually well fed up with the cold by now but the past few days have probably been the most memorable weather event I've ever experienced so no complaints. Definitely in the mood for a bit of warmth now though, hoping for a gradual thaw this week to minimise flooding then some nice calm sunny weather to get growth going. Hopefully lots of thundery showers as well, I don't think I've heard a single rumble of thunder since moving back to Ireland last summer

Late spring into June is probably my favourite time of year, the long bright evenings that are still getting longer, deep blue skies, nice convective cloudscapes and still an air of naive hope that we might have a good summer around the corner.

sryanbruen

Seems that this recovery in zonal wind speeds (that I've been speaking about for around 2 weeks now) is going to be weaker than expected and very temporary.

sryanbruen

However, MJO is going back to phase 1.

Artane2002

Spring 2010 sound like what the doctor ordered then. In fact, if we can have 2010-style conditions for the rest of the year that would be great in terms of sunny/warm and cold/snowy weather!

Dull and mild winter weather... please no! A mild, sunny, dry winter would be a bit interesting if we can't get some sort of cold weather.

Birdnuts

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Ah yeah that’s fair enough but for me this a nuisance I love the warm weather great for gardening beach sports etc. I always think of spring here from mid March on weather wise.

I'd much prefer the cold now and for the rest of the month if it mean't a warm May and a solid Summer - I believe our weather has a "quota" system when it comes to warm/cold spells

JCX BXC

Looks like quite a few convective showers developing over the country today, currently lashing here in West Clare making a good job of melting the remaining snow.

sryanbruen

Think I might have the rather dry part of my March prediction completely wrong already . Record breaking wet start to March at Dublin Airport, even though it all fell as snow on the 1st, 2nd and overnight into the 3rd.

Clonmel1000

We’re starting to see the real cost of this springs “white gold” tonight. Water shortages farmers animals cut off schools closed no post roads in bits. What’s the medium term forecast?

Artane2002

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

We’re starting to see the real cost of this springs “white gold” tonight. Water shortages farmers animals cut off schools closed no post roads in bits. What’s the medium term forecast?

I hate to break this out to you but at the moment it looks wet and cold for the next two weeks. Further snow is a possibility at times too.

M.T. Cranium

Here's what I am expecting for the three months known as spring (maybe the astronomical timetable wasn't so bad after all ...)

This modified cold and damp regime will likely persist for the first three weeks of March, and will be followed by intervals of warmer weather with the risk of heavy rainfalls.

April will see at least one return to the blocking pattern and that may produce one more snowfall event in at least the western counties and Ulster. Later in April blocking will convert to a warmer southeasterly flow with some days reaching the low 20s. This will give a boost to agriculture likely to be weeks behind the normal schedule, and will help to dry out saturated ground.

May will bring some very warm weather at times, but this will break down to heavy rainfalls later in the month.

km79

^ that’s depressing

SleetAndSnow

Well, since we are now back to 'normal' and the weather thread has calmed down..

Today felt like the first Spring day in Cork (with some left over snowman balls). The sun was out and it was actually warm, the feeling of warmth on my face when walking around the place was so nice!

Ready for spring to come now, if its anything like today that would be great. (Lots of hurdles in the way though!)

Oscar Bravo

A beautiful spring afternoon here in Castlebar. Great drying in a moderate westerly wind. Nice spells of sunshine to.

sryanbruen

Stratosphere temperatures have gone up a bit again at 30hPa after a recent plunge in temperatures following Tuesday, February 27's warming spike. However, temperatures at 10hPa are bang on average right now.





I see that the atmosphere is in a huge mess at the moment with all the strange behaviour of the stratosphere. There is no Azores High. There is very weak blocking for us as it has retrogressed over to North America. Low pressure is all over the place. I think stratospheric effects on the troposphere are trying to come together but are struggling so with external factors impacting this solution like the west based negative NAO and some nor-easters taking place making the Polar Jet that bit more powerful regardless of it on a southerly track through Europe. I am trying to get my head around this incredible disorganised setup whilst at the same time trying to enjoy the current weather because it is a nice Spring day here!

For the model runs, there is no signs of any sort of stratospheric warming in the foreseeable future, in fact some cooling is expected to take place according to the GFS. See the below example for Thursday, March 15th on today's GFS 12z where there is a -60 isotherm appearing for the first time in weeks now.



What we know: The beast from the east was caused by the historical SSW event that occurred on 11th-13th February. This brought record breaking reversed zonal winds which propogated down into the troposphere and created a phenomenal easterly for late February and early March. This was the reason why I was so confident on an easterly taking place, the stratosphere. A week later after the initial major SSW splitting the Polar Vortex, a Canadian Warming occurred for the first time in February since stratospheric records began in 1950-51. This obliterated the Polar Vortex and stratosphere temperatures were well above average for quite a few days. This also caused the zonal winds to plunge again into reverse breaking records for the second time. However, it seemed too quick of a reaction from the troposphere to be showing the impacts of the Canadian Warming so some people believe that the effects of this warming event have yet to take place. According to the GFS ensembles (we have yet to see the ECM react to this), there is going to be a reverse of the zonal winds come the third week or so of March making me believe that another cold spell is around the corner except perhaps not what we classify as extreme. The zonal wind reversion is expected to be far less remarkable than the two reversions that have already taken place at the end of February.

What we don't know: We do not know the effects the Canadian Warming will have on the troposphere even with the reversed zonal winds expected due to this being the first ever Canadian Warming to take place in February since records began in 1950-51. We do not know when the effects will take place as ever with any stratospheric event.

NAGDEFI

Portlaoise was 9C today at 1pm but back home only 2C and very cold at 3pm. I think the amount of lying snow is causing the 7C differential. It's like a lot of latent heat is involved in the thaw, which is still slow. We usually have a 3C differential between home and Carlow town, Kilkenny city or Portlaoise.

Artane2002

Lovely early March day in Dublin 5. Unbroken sunshine and relatively chilly. Surprisingly, the sun had very little impact on the snow.

SleetAndSnow

Very strange weather in the Cork area according to netweather. Its showing rain, sleet, snow AND freezing rain (please no) apperaring over the city.

Rock Lesnar

Lovely day in the north east, sunny and slightly chilly most of the day, sky is clear now