Share Picks 2018

q85dw7osi4lebg

Pussyhands wrote: »

Just so everyone is aware, I got into crypto at all time highs and we know what happened there.

I bought my first stock in August and bought more in September....

I think I have an effect. :P

What happened to MSFT? I bought at 112....down at 101 now. I have the worst timing.

Unlucky, similar boat to yourself.

See it as a sale unless you are day trading.

I'd be surprised if my current portfolio doesn't double in the next 7/8 years.

Trying to dollar / euro cost average it.

Skelet0n

Pussyhands wrote: »

What happened to MSFT? I bought at 112....down at 101 now. I have the worst timing.

Tech was over valued combined with weak market. Additionally chip makers are on the way down, wouldn’t be surprised if NVDA gets to double digits, which is further pulling down an already stressed sector.
I’d wait for a bottom before buying any more tech as this doesn’t look like it’s stopping.

EDIT: just looked at futures, they’re green, could it be the bottom? Be cautious.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Might go in on Boeing today. Once the recent Lion Air crash blows over I think we could be looking at a 20% gain.

Heiser

If Dalata goes a bit lower I'm gonna jump in.

Might buy some Nvidia too, seems good value at $147.

butrasgali

Me too for delata

Taylor365

Pussyhands wrote: »

Just so everyone is aware, I got into crypto at all time highs and we know what happened there.

I bought my first stock in August and bought more in September....

I think I have an effect. :P

What happened to MSFT? I bought at 112....down at 101 now. I have the worst timing.

I started last December.


Was up 15% for the year until October hit, and kept hitting.


Only barely up 2% at the mo. I expect to go red.

unkel

Started DeGiro account 08/17

Was a few cents in the red for a few moments yesterday :eek:

PAVM and VSTM the bad, bad articles. Back in the black a bit today.

drunkmonkey

If I can turn green this year with Hive dragging down all the year's gains it'll be a miracle, Gained 40cent on every euro last year and took profit before going in with fresh shares this year.
Going to make one last good shove into something this year, stuck between a 911, Mickey mouse, Pocophone and Cortana. I'll hold tight until black friday.

q85dw7osi4lebg

I'm down over 5 grand this year!

ballyharpat

11k down this month- I had been putting off putting in to the market for 6/7 months until a correction occurred, I got back in in october, then got the correction I am only down 1k for the year though.... but still sucks...

neris

Maybe not a 2018 pick but play on oil when the market turns back upward, ETFS 3X DAILY LONG WTI CRUDE OIL. Down at €8.42 from a high of €23.70. Lowest its been in 5 years was €5.55. Risk is if falls in price it falls alot so big swings in ups & downs

Bandana boy

If your looking for an Oil/energy stock
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP might be worth considering
Had a really tough two years but the fundamentals are strong

Gruffalo22

ballyharpat wrote: »

11k down this month- I had been putting off putting in to the market for 6/7 months until a correction occurred, I got back in in october, then got the correction I am only down 1k for the year though.... but still sucks...

I'm up 1.5k since I started in March. Lots of good lessons learned. Will be treading carefully from here on in with slowdown coming/in progress

With interest rates on the rise I am looking for strong balance sheet with little debt and keeping very close to book value

narwog81

Gruffalo22 wrote: »

I'm up 1.5k since I started in March. Lots of good lessons learned. Will be treading carefully from here on in with slowdown coming/in progress

With interest rates on the rise I am looking for strong balance sheet with little debt and keeping very close to book value

How much capital did you put in for that return out of interest? Starting out myself at the minute l, interesting times

Gruffalo22

narwog81 wrote: »

How much capital did you put in for that return out of interest? Starting out myself at the minute l, interesting times

50k in tranches over that period. That return is now gone by the way!

It will come back though and more. You need lots of patience to pick your entry point and wait for returns. Buying at high book values and trying to pick the bottom in this market is dangerous

q85dw7osi4lebg

Any small cap / growth tips? A gamble even. Not Bio / Shipping or mining related.

Long on enough stuff for now.

unkel

Gruffalo22 wrote: »

50k in tranches over that period. That return is now gone by the way!

Ah!

I've no doubt I wasn't the only one in here wondering how the hell you were still a few grand up

Saanvi Important Blank

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

Any small cap / growth tips? A gamble even. Not Bio / Shipping or mining related.

Long on enough stuff for now.

Versarian

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=108123517&postcount=976

£1.29 today ........value either long or short term IMO at that. I have a huge amount in

Gruffalo22

I tipped a company about a month ago at around USD 4.3 when it was at approx. 0.9 book value. I was averaging down but I bought a load of shares around this price.
They released excellent earnings again a few days and the SP rose 35%. This is settling down today. I think they will be a multibagger which you can now buy just above book value. For me it’s a safe investment with massive potential and a no brainer. I have done lots of research on the company, market etc.

They provide small credit in China. Market is 400m users. They have 70m registered users on their app. 29m of these are approved for credit and 5m of these are current active borrowers. They have huge demand but don’t have the funds to service all their borrowers. They use 1000 criteria to assess users for credit and this is done in seconds on the app with immediate funds drawdown. Their bad debt rate is 1.7%.

They are charging 36% interest on the loans and are currently making 33% net profit.
At just above book value they have limited long term downside but massive upside due to their growth, profitability etc. They are also currently buying back shares.

I'd expect some short term volatility due to trade war, chinese regulation etc but this is not hindering their growth. They are on track to earn around USD 1.20 per share this year.

Company is Qudian - QD

q85dw7osi4lebg

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

I'm up 30% here already. Anyone else jump on board ?

RGSE - Up 60% overall now in just over 2 weeks. Still a buy from me, reckon it has the legs to keep going.

littlevillage

Gruffalo22 wrote: »

I tipped a company about a month ago at around USD 4.3 when it was at approx. 0.9 book value. I was averaging down but I bought a load of shares around this price.
They released excellent earnings again a few days and the SP rose 35%. This is settling down today. I think they will be a multibagger which you can now buy just above book value. For me it’s a safe investment with massive potential and a no brainer. I have done lots of research on the company, market etc.

They provide small credit in China. Market is 400m users. They have 70m registered users on their app. 29m of these are approved for credit and 5m of these are current active borrowers. They have huge demand but don’t have the funds to service all their borrowers. They use 1000 criteria to assess users for credit and this is done in seconds on the app with immediate funds drawdown. Their bad debt rate is 1.7%.

They are charging 36% interest on the loans and are currently making 33% net profit.
At just above book value they have limited long term downside but massive upside due to their growth, profitability etc. They are also currently buying back shares.

I'd expect some short term volatility due to trade war, chinese regulation etc but this is not hindering their growth. They are on track to earn around USD 1.20 per share this year.

Company is Qudian - QD

Thanks for sharing the tip. Its down 17% today. Volitility is right :eek:

kaymin

littlevillage wrote: »

Thanks for sharing the tip. Its down 17% today. Volitility is right :eek:

Unsecured lending to people earning minimum wage run by a marketing guy - what could go wrong!

Headline delinquency rates of 1.7% despite the fact that 9% of the loan book was past due at 31 Dec 2017....

vargoo

Anything connected to p2p in china....that would be a no.

Gruffalo22

littlevillage wrote: »

Thanks for sharing the tip. Its down 17% today. Volitility is right :eek:

It was up 38% after earnings on Wednesday so -15% is fine with me. If I'm buying I'd like the SP to halve if possible. I'm more concerned with earnings and default rate volatility but there is no sign of that

Gruffalo22

kaymin wrote: »

Unsecured lending to people earning minimum wage run by a marketing guy - what could go wrong!

Headline delinquency rates of 1.7% despite the fact that 9% of the loan book was past due at 31 Dec 2017....

Good to see people doing their research!

In answer to your points

Unsecured lending to people earning minimum wage - We have a number of years of financial results to see how that turned out. With 33% net profit to sales very well I'd say

marketing guy - He has steered the company through new regulation, grown user numbers to 70m, developed excellent credit scoring and maintained excellent default rates so I think he's doing ok. Did Steve Jobs have an IT degree?
You haven't mentioned the qualifications of the other board members Chao Zhu, Li Du, Yi Cao etc

9% of the loan book was past due at 31 Dec 2017 - They facilitated 88.9B RMB in transactions in 2017. Breakdown as follows:

Collected 79.63B 90%
Current 8.5B 10%
within 30 days 0.4B 0.45%
Over 30 days 0.4B 0.45%

Of course the outstanding debt at 31/12 will have a higher % of past due loans! It is made up of past due loans plus new loans, not collected loans!!

Past due is 0.9% of the total facilitated loans, an excellent rate. They have also fully provided for the over 30 day loans and reduced profits accordingly

Gruffalo22

vargoo wrote: »

Anything connected to p2p in china....that would be a no.

They are not a PTP as they have institutional funding but they are in the same market. They will benefit from a smaller number of ptp competitors. Investment is your choice. Do your own research

kaymin

Gruffalo22 wrote: »

Good to see people doing their research!

In answer to your points

Unsecured lending to people earning minimum wage - We have a number of years of financial results to see how that turned out. With 33% net profit to sales very well I'd say

marketing guy - He has steered the company through new regulation, grown user numbers to 70m, developed excellent credit scoring and maintained excellent default rates so I think he's doing ok. Did Steve Jobs have an IT degree?
You haven't mentioned the qualifications of the other board members Chao Zhu, Li Du, Yi Cao etc

9% of the loan book was past due at 31 Dec 2017 - They facilitated 88.9B RMB in transactions in 2017. Breakdown as follows:

Collected 79.63B 90%
Current 8.5B 10%
within 30 days 0.4B 0.45%
Over 30 days 0.4B 0.45%

Of course the outstanding debt at 31/12 will have a higher % of past due loans! It is made up of past due loans plus new loans, not collected loans!!

Past due is 0.9% of the total facilitated loans, an excellent rate. They have also fully provided for the over 30 day loans and reduced profits accordingly

The company has been growing the loan book rapidly since it commenced operations in 2015 - so it's track record is still to be determined in my view. In the 2017 financial report I noted that they will expand lending to customers with an AI credit score of below 620 - up to that point they only lent to customers with a score above that level. So default rates should be expected to worsen.

The market doesn't like them or believe their profitability rightly or wrongly.

The other concern is the funding structure - 95% of debt is due within 1 year with most of it owed to 'trust beneficiaries' - couldn't find out who the trust beneficiaries are though?

Gruffalo22

kaymin wrote: »

The company has been growing the loan book rapidly since it commenced operations in 2015 - so it's track record is still to be determined in my view. In the 2017 financial report I noted that they will expand lending to customers with an AI credit score of below 620 - up to that point they only lent to customers with a score above that level. So default rates should be expected to worsen.

The market doesn't like them or believe their profitability rightly or wrongly.

The other concern is the funding structure - 95% of debt is due within 1 year with most of it owed to 'trust beneficiaries' - couldn't find out who the trust beneficiaries are though?

These are small loans of short duration, particularly for new customers so they are prudent. Credit ratings are very for important for customers in China. Repeat customers are over 90%. 2-3 years will probably be 5 credit cycles so I think it's enough of a history.

The market is irrational. People sell because its going down and buy because its going up. This creates opportunities. The intrinsic value is the present value of future cashflows.

They are funded by banks, institutions and some ptp platforms. They come to Qudian for customers due to their excellent credit ratings process

heffo500

Any one considering buying Canopy Growth or Aurora Cannabis now? Prices seem more reasonable now.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

RGSE - Up 60% overall now in just over 2 weeks. Still a buy from me, reckon it has the legs to keep going.

Won't get tired of this one. Up another 16% today.