Fancies For Today III

zimmermania

The big betting race on Wednesday is the Galway Plate,as competitive a handicap chase as one will ever see.

Everything owned by J P Mcmanus has been laid out for this and must be considered regardless of recent form,Mullins and Elliot often have a dozen or more runners between them all trying to win the big pot.

I have always preferred youn horses and i am very interested in 7 year olds who have won 6 of the last 10 Plates.

Only a handful of 7 year olds run this year and the standout for me is ASH TREE MEADOW who looks to have been laid out for the race and was 4th behind Hewick last year when only a 6 year old and getting 11 lbs from the winner.

He receives 29 lbs from Hewick (inc jockeys claim) and must have a great chance,his mark was protected by a run over hurdles and on the flat this year, he will be fit and has plenty chase experience as the winner of 4 or 5 novice chases.

His trainer has 8 in the race but with young Gilligan on board he will take beating at around 9 to 1 ew 6 places.

In the 2.25 at Goodwood Oisin Murphy rides WHITE MOONLIGHT for Suroor in a 100 grand race and must have a very good chance in this group 3 over 7 furlongs,he will be suited by the course and can make the running if he wishes,has been running well here and in Meydan and can improve again imo.

Worth a decent ew bet at 8/1 4 places with most bookies.

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zimmermania

One more worth a small bet today is Dark Thirty in the 5.20 Goodwood.

Hannons have wone this a few times in recent years and have two entries today,Classic and Dark Thirty,Classiic is the shorter of the two in the betting but I think Dark Thirty who is drawn better is the more likely winner and might give a return ew for modest money and has the better draw.

ShamoBuc

Duke of Leggagh Galway 5.10 14/1 with 365 e/w 3 places

hudhastings

Galway 7.50 black bamboo. He's fancied worth an e/w bet.

CH3OH

Great ride on Ash Tree Meadow

And a Fantastic pick from the Zimmer!

zimmermania

Nice win in the Galway Plate,White Moonlight was disappointing and got the place money on Dark Thirty so another winning day.

I metioned in my Galway Plate post that 7 year olds had a very good record in the race.

There were 22 runners,five were 7 year olds yet 3 of the first 4 home were 7 year olds so we should be aware of trends in certain races and use the information to our advantage especially trends in recent years where we can see patterns changing.

zimmermania

The Guinness hurdle at 5.05 is competitive as usual¹ with a pile if horses laid out for the race Tudor City has won this twice already and I think he will go close again for Breslin his Irish American owner.

Tony Martin keeps his weight down for this and the hatrick may be on 6 places at 16 to 1 merits an ew bet.

Ella Perfecta is 50 to 1 to win the novice chase at 2.45,has form at Galway and is worth a very small ew punt and the betting without one or 2 interests me.

His trainer Colin Murphy is shrewd and Ella could outrun her price.

zimmermania

NELDA ran on well here a couple of days ago almost catching my fancy Livio Milo only going down by a neck.

Out again today at 3.55 in a tougher race and on form has it all to do.

Jessica would hardly risk the lightly raced maiden if she thought the filly had no chance and could be a bit of value at 8s or better for small money ew.

NELDA a non runner.

realdanbreen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120933622#Comment_120933622

I see Ado McGuinness has Celtic Crown in the same race, good value at 7s

zimmermania

Prep School 6.20 Epsom days best bet 13 to 2

zimmermania

Zoffman at 8 to1 is an ew bet in the 6.35 Galway following a very good 2nd a month ago over a mile and a half at the Curragh.

Acts well with give in the ground and might be able to beat the fav Teed Up who would prefer a longer trip,PP goes 5 places and the horse is drawn well.

In Goodwood at 1.50 Tritonic might be hard to beat over the two and a half mile trip at around 12 to 1,a few of these are closely matched but his last run in Ascot over this trip 6 weeks ago was very good and despite having plenty of weight he is a real stayer and with 5 places available he is a solid ew bet.

I looked at the Golden Mile at 3.oc but it is too difficult and the Books are giving nothing away with the skinny prices on some that I fancy.

If anyone is betting on the race low numbers are vital as it is years since anything in double figures won.

Anything drawn higher than 7 finds it hard to win and those drawn in the top 5 have a great record.

zimmermania

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120912747#Comment_120912747

Tacarib Bay runs in the mile and may well win from a good draw,sadly I can have him because he looks a7 furlong horse in high class races and I can see him fade at the end of the Mile race.

zimmermania

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120937453#Comment_120937453

Should read "cant have him" at a bigger price i probably would but the odds are too skinny but i will watch with interest.

zimmermania

Backing two in the big sprint at 3 .35 goodwood.

Main fancy is Mums Tipple at 20 to1 6 places,she has been running very well in all the big field 6 furlong handicapsand the fact that she stays further is a help as they go fast from the start.

Having a smaller bet on the classy 3 year old Mums Starq who gr as been running ok in group races.

Not many 3 year olds run in this but they gave a good record in recent years.

zimmermania

How could he do it to me!!

hayrabit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120948073#Comment_120948073

beaten on the nod bob an' all ! 😆

unlucky 🙂

crushproof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120948073#Comment_120948073

Jaysus Zimmo careful there now, I'd be deleting that photo!

zimmermania

Not my niece,dont know how the pic got there but it's not a problem.

realdanbreen

They're making some balls of the racing in Brighton today. Stall handlers stuck in traffic so the had a tape start for a 5furlong race ,in the fog! They're now delaying the racing until the stall handlers get to the track.

zimmermania

The Great St Wilfrid takes place at 3.15 Ripon tomorrow.

Always a very competitive race and bookmakers go 6 or even 7 places in the 6 furlongs cavalry charge.

Monsieur Kodi is fav after a good win lto at Goodwood,however Live In The Moment trained by Alice Haynes who was 4th in that race beaten a length and 3/4 from the wrong side of the draw offers better value at 16 to 1 on 4 lbs better terms.

Ridden by Mia Nicholls claiming 7 lbs and wearing a visor for the first time the gelding is worth a tenner ew off a mark of 85 (once rated 100).

An inexperienced jockey may be a disadvantage but on the wide Ripon track they will go off at a strong gallop and hopefully Live in the Moment will be close to the pace.

Has run well in big field handicaps in the past and may be worth an ew punt.

realdanbreen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120998438#Comment_120998438

Fair play to you Zim, I always look forward to your analysis and selection .

zimmermania

Makanah has an unbelievable record at York no worse than 5th in his last 7 or 8 runs at the track,placed in this race twice off Mark's of over 100 and excels here in very large fields finishing 4th,2nd,4th and 5th in fields with 20 or more runners.

Is a very good bet at 7 to 5 with PP to finish in the first 7 and 85 to 40 top 6.

PP is only paying 4 places online but is money back if 2nd 3rd or 4th but is top price at 18 to1 most others go14 to 1.So my bet is a straight win at 18s and two bets at 13 to 8 (already on at that price,now 7 to 5) top 7 and at 85 to 40 top 6 finish.

Makanah has regular rider,Paul Hanagan on board today and races off a very low mark of 96.

zimmermania

Paddington is a long odds on shot today in the 3.35 but could be worth taking on today with Mostahdaf at 11 to 4.

Mostahdaf is actually rated 3 lbs better than Paddington but my main reason for backing him Is the fact that he runs so well after a break.

Being off for two months would normally be a negative in a race such as this but Mostahdaf is almost unbeaten in 4 or 5 runs after a break and is the value for me today at 11 to 4 to beat the Obrien hotpot.

bladespin

That's one hell of a call Zimmer!

zimmermania

A good day,got the 2 main bets landed with Makanah placed and Mostahdaf winning at the very good price of 3 to1 .

Just 2 necks and a head beat Makanah fir the small win bet I did.

zimmermania

The Clipper stakes at York tomorrow is a mile handicap worth 150,000 with 20 runners.Its a safe bet we will get a true run race at a good pace with all 20 runners doing their level best.

Local trainer David Omeara has 4 runners and i think he may provide the winner,stable jockey Danny Tudhope rides last years winnner,the classy Blue For You who probably has too much weight now.

The 9 to 2 fav is Northern Express who is way too short in my opinion and very badly handicapped with my idea of the winner,Omearas ORBAAN who was 4th in this race last year,3 lengths ahead of Northern Express (who went off fav) giving 4 lbs to the fav.

Tomorrow ORBAAN receives 7 lbs which means he is 11 lbs better off.

ORBAAN is not the most consistent horse but can be very useful when the chips are down,it appears to me that he had his final gallop not in private like most horses but in a race at Sandown 4 days ago when staying on nicely having been out the back early.

That run could have got him spot on for this and at 10 to 1 six places is worth backing ew.

zimmermania

Orbaan was out the back before runnining on well just over a length out of the placings,the best of Omearas 4 runners all the same ,only reading the race report and have not seen the race yet but will watch a few runs later with the future in mind.

zimmermania

The Nunthorpe,a group 1 over 5 furlongs open to all ages is the race that interests me today.

Speed is essential here as they go off very fast from the stalls,horses drawn low are favoured but horses can win from any stall if they have enough speed.

Short fav Highfield Princess has proved herself to be be a very good mare who spent her early career winning over 7 furlongs before being re-invented as a sprinter by trainer John Quinn.

She won this last year but it was not the best field ever seen in the race and had only 13 runners and despite the short price could be vunerable today to a pure speedster.

The most likely winner for me is Bradsell who comes out as good as Highfield Princess at the weights after their recent clash when Bradsell came out on top,i do not know why Bradsell has not raced for 66 days (have not read the Racing Post yet)

A fully fit Bradsell may have too much speed for Highfield Princess and i can see Hollie Doyle hit the front after a furlong or so and hold off the rest of the field.

One worth a bet for small money is LIVE IN THE DREAM trained by Adam West,has good form at the track,drawn well and is improving.

I backed Live in the Dream EW at 40S and ew without Bradsell and Highland Princess at 16s with PP and i am hoping for a good run.

If coming from a top yard would not be 40 to 1.

bassy

Oh Zimmer it blew home, job at wish I done it to win at 40/1 I had it without the 2 favorites 14/1 but all good,cheers

Timberrrrrrrr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121024204#Comment_121024204

You beauty, just heading into Liverpool City center to celebrate my birthday and you have just turned a fogood night into a great night 😁