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Were Met E Correct to Extend the Red Warning Countrywide

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Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 233 ✭✭Hooks Golf Handicap


    _Dara_ wrote: »
    Don't know about anyone else but I'm on the edge of my seat here waiting to see if OP changes his/her opinion!

    I am open to persuasion on this topic as I'm not a qualified meteorologist nor a disaster relief planner.

    I went with my gut on this one as I often do.
    I thought Met E had been pressured into making a wrong decision.

    My gut looks as though it was incorrect.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,971 ✭✭✭_Dara_


    I thought Met E had been pressured into making a wrong decision.

    Why would you think that?

    People died in areas that were originally orange. The alert needed to be upgraded to red and that proves it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 66,600 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I am open to persuasion on this topic as I'm not a qualified meteorologist nor a disaster relief planner.

    I went with my gut on this one as I often do.
    I thought Met E had been pressured into making a wrong decision.

    My gut looks as though it was incorrect.

    All I ask is that reasonable informed decisions are made. And in this case it was reasonable and as informed as it could be.




  • If it saves a single life then the red warning is worth it

    I have no issue with the decision - weather is unpredictable and it was a large and powerful storm heading our way.

    But the logic of 'well if it saves one life then it was worth it' really doesn't stack up. Why not have a red warning every windy day just in case someone gets hit by a flying branch?

    The argument is that a red warning should be used very, very rarely and if over-used you are just teaching people to ignore it. I totally get that in this event it was simpler and more direct to make it for the whole country for the whole day, but the truth is in Dublin up until 1pm the wind wasn't even particularly strong - but the county had been under a red warning for 7 hours by then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 66,600 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I have no issue with the decision - weather is unpredictable and it was a large and powerful storm heading our way.

    But the logic of 'well if it saves one life then it was worth it' really doesn't stack up. Why not have a red warning every windy day just in case someone gets hit by a flying branch?

    The argument is that a red warning should be used very, very rarely and if over-used you are just teaching people to ignore it. I totally get that in this event it was simpler and more direct to make it for the whole country for the whole day, but the truth is in Dublin up until 1pm the wind wasn't even particularly strong - but the county had been under a red warning for 7 hours by then.

    The problem for the met was 'should they allow children go to school or people to work. They had to take - a whole day, whole evolving storm - view.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,486 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Is this even a question? Like it has a pretty obvious - and common sensible - answer. Of course, they were right to extend the red warning countrywide and having a red warning in the first place. Better to be safe than sorry!

    As posters have said, if Met Éireann didn't take the action they did, the death toll would be higher than just 3 people. Now, any death is tragic obviously but it could have been so much worse.

    In my area, the warning could have been considered overhyped as I had no damage whatsoever BUT I, and neither does any other individual area/region etc, stand for the whole of Ireland. I think that it was a huge well done to Met Éireann on Ophelia.


  • Posts: 15,814 ✭✭✭✭ Alistair Polite Wasp


    I have no issue with the decision - weather is unpredictable and it was a large and powerful storm heading our way.

    But the logic of 'well if it saves one life then it was worth it' really doesn't stack up. Why not have a red warning every windy day just in case someone gets hit by a flying branch?

    The argument is that a red warning should be used very, very rarely and if over-used you are just teaching people to ignore it. I totally get that in this event it was simpler and more direct to make it for the whole country for the whole day, but the truth is in Dublin up until 1pm the wind wasn't even particularly strong - but the county had been under a red warning for 7 hours by then.

    It's not overused though, it's rare that we see them. Having a red warning only come into effect in Dublin at 1 pm yesterday could have resulted in large numbers of people leaving their place of work and heading home as the worst hits. The warning is there to protect lives and sometimes they have to be a little broad with it and no harm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,748 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    jasper100 wrote: »
    Some bellends in Co. Louth went kite surfing. Rescue services were called out, including a helicopter, which may have been required elsewhere for example to airlift somebody to hospital if local roads were blocked by trees.

    Another bellend went for a swim in Salthill. Despite his macho interview afterwards, he could have been crushed against the handrail as he walked out the steps. More emergency services would have been required.

    Had there not been a nationwide alert there would have been many more bellends doing more stupid things, putting further strain on emergency services who had better things to be doing yesterday.

    it was windsurfers who didn't need help https://www.facebook.com/HelicopterRescue116/posts/1979371872342168

    crushed against the handrail? was it really that rough at that time in the morning?


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,766 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    By Met Éireann's own admission, the Orange / Red conditions away from the South and West coasts were marginal. Joanna Donnelly dealt with this head on on Claire Byrne's show last night - she said herself and senior forecaster Evelyn Cusack had precisely that discussion with Eoin Moran, the Director of MÉ and on the balance of risk to life and limb by upper Orange level conditions in some areas, the Red Level alert was agreed to give the Emergency Co-ordination team certainty for their decisions.

    As an example of why I think it was absolutely right, I am aware of 3 separate trees down on busy main roads near where I work. They caused no injuries, but they fell and took down live power lines at normally busy times close to suburban schools but because of the Red alert, there was practically nobody moving around at the time. There is no question that saved injuries and deaths and I'm sure that was replicated around the Country.

    1-0 to Met É as far as Im concerned.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,748 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    OSI wrote: »
    All 3 of the people that died were in counties that were outside the original red alert issued, no?
    is all that tells you is people can die in orange criteria alerts zones too?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭Daffodil.d


    I follow this thread all the time but rarely post. I think they were right in their decision. They gave a red warning and there were still people out putting their lives, and potentially the lives of the rescue services at risk by swimming in the sea etc. Most people did take the advice. I think if they had a lower warning a lot more people would have taken it casually. I'm in Waterford and it was pretty scary here yesterday afternoon. I was nervous. Not my normal style at all. This had never happened before so being cautious was the right approach. 3 people lost their lives. There could have been more.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,994 ✭✭✭Caranica


    The hole in my roof (in Dublin) says it was absolutely the right thing to do. The force at which the flying slates hit the front path scared the life out of me. They would have caused serious injury or worse had someone been hit by them.

    Looking at the damage around the estate the wind was coming from some funny angles!


  • Registered Users Posts: 509 ✭✭✭NeonCookies


    Long post that has been building all day listening to people moaning in work.

    Absolutely the right decision to go red.

    We were lucky. This storm was huge, as big as our island. If it tracked a little to the east, the eye could have travelled up the centre of the country with dangerous winds to the east and heavy rain to the west (if my reading of the technical forum was correct over the last few days - I'm not an expert, just have an interest!). Met Eireann could not know the exact track so went on the basis of predictions and probabilities. If the storm was due to hit during the night, maybe they could have gotten away with holding off on red alerts but that wasn't the case.

    If the storm as it was yesterday hit during a typical Monday there would have been chaos and more lives would have been lost. If a storm as bad as the one Met Eireann believed could be coming had hit during a typical Monday then we would have been in serious serious danger.

    A nationwide red alert was a decision that made sense based on the best available information.

    I myself didn't think it was "that bad" yesterday as I was curled up on my sofa safe in my house, occasionally muting the tv to listen to the wind or peer out the window. Then I heard a poor man had died 3 miles from my house when a tree fell on his car. It was that bad.

    We (for the most part) were lucky and should be thankful of that instead of finding something else to moan about.

    Well done Met Eireann.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,423 ✭✭✭weisses


    Yes, valid decision .. it didn't even warranted a yellow warning where I live in w Kerry IMO ...

    So many places got impacted that usually doesn't see these high winds


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭goat2


    Yes they were right to do so, schools closed kept children safe, first and foremost , safety


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,138 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Long post that has been building all day listening to people moaning in work.

    Absolutely the right decision to go red.

    We were lucky. This storm was huge, as big as our island. If it tracked a little to the east, the eye could have travelled up the centre of the country with dangerous winds to the east and heavy rain to the west (if my reading of the technical forum was correct over the last few days - I'm not an expert, just have an interest!). Met Eireann could not know the exact track so went on the basis of predictions and probabilities. If the storm was due to hit during the night, maybe they could have gotten away with holding off on red alerts but that wasn't the case.

    If the storm as it was yesterday hit during a typical Monday there would have been chaos and more lives would have been lost. If a storm as bad as the one Met Eireann believed could be coming had hit during a typical Monday then we would have been in serious serious danger.

    A nationwide red alert was a decision that made sense based on the best available information.

    I myself didn't think it was "that bad" yesterday as I was curled up on my sofa safe in my house, occasionally muting the tv to listen to the wind or peer out the window. Then I heard a poor man had died 3 miles from my house when a tree fell on his car. It was that bad.

    We (for the most part) were lucky and should be thankful of that instead of finding something else to moan about.

    Well done Met Eireann.

    That was an awful tragedy near you. A baby less than 2 months old losing his father as well as other child and wife. While technically based on forecast it was not red for certain counties Ireland is really too small to differentiate between counties for a storm as big as this crossing the country. Cork was always red so surely parts of nearby limerick and tipp were also the same.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,466 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    This has all been said already, but I'd like to write my thoughts down as I think the context for these decisions is easily forgotten and already was being lost yesterday, never mind a couple of months down the line.

    The important thing when judging this decision is to try and rid your mind of all hindsight, because nobody at ME is psychic, so far as I know. Then you have to consider the context:

    First thing to remember is that on Saturday and Sunday, multiple models were giving slightly different tracks that altered the course of the storm by the most marginal of degrees. However, in an Irish context, those marginal degrees were the difference between the more westerly track the storm did take, and one that was maybe 50 miles more easterly. Had the track been more easterly, it would have more significantly affected the east coast than the strong effects it did have.

    The second piece of context is that the judgement call for warning levels made on Sunday morning was inarguably going to be the one that had the most impact. Issue a nationwide Orange warning, with Red warnings for the southwest, and then change that on Sunday evening, and you would have had complete chaos. People in the newly affected Red Warning areas would be caught completely unprepared, never mind the local authorities that relied on those warnings to get ready.

    Put those 2 things together, and the result is this - Met Eireann had to make a call on Sunday morning at the latest as to what they thought the worst conditions Ophelia could bring might be. They had to do this with the benefit of a lot of meteorological insight that was just imprecise enough to not be able to narrow the potential effects to a specific area of the country.

    Now you can start thinking about all the other things that are relevant to this judgement call in hindsight:

    1. I don't think anybody at all is arguing that the Red warnings for the southwest counties weren't warranted, that is being widely accepted as the right call and an extremely necessary one.
    2. People outside of the track of the modelled worst effects of the storm died (particularly the poor fellow in Ravensdale who was out long before the storm was due to truly impact that part of the country).
    3. Belfast, Dublin and many other cities that were 'less affected' had countless amounts of trees that collapsed onto roads. As we sadly saw with 2 of the deaths, that is extremely dangerous.

    Now throw that hindsight together with the original context that I wrote about:

    If you think that the red warnings for the Southwest were justified, and you accept that Met Eireann had to make their call by Sunday morning at the latest, and you understand that at that point the forecast models were showing small differences in track that would have resulted in more easterly effects, you have to come to the conclusion that the red warnings were justified for the entire country.

    There's one other thing to consider, and I posted this in another thread, and I'll just use the metaphor I did there:

    Think about how in the lead up to the year 2000, there was a lot of hype and anxiety about the Y2K bug. Perhaps you didn't live through that, but it was a huge story, which was that a core, date-based flaw to computer systems could cause widespread system failures, or even just a ****load of software bugs that would be annoying as hell. So, in 1999 there was an absolutely huge global effort to upgrade affected systems and software to be "Y2K Compliant". For the most part a vast majority of people took the advice and everyone rushed to have their devices and their apps ready and prepared. Certainly nearly all the vital systems like Air Traffic Control or power station automation were 'fixed'. People though were still very anxious about what would happen come the new year.

    Fast forward to January 1st 2000, and lo-and-behold, airplanes didn't fall out of the sky, and nuclear power stations didn't explode.

    Yet, the response wasn't "Great, we avoided this huge catastrophe (or this huge pain in the ass at the very least) by preparing for it and being ready". No, the response was "That Y2K thing was a whole load of bull****, nothing happened!".

    Can you see the flaw in the logical thinking there?

    To bring it back to the topic, we had a Red Warning countrywide, and as a result lots of people prepared for the storm, and made arrangements to be able to stay indoors and safe at home. Businesses stayed closed, public transport operators kept their vehicles and drivers off the streets. And as a result of that, the response should be "Great, we avoided further widespread deaths and injuries by preparing for it and being ready", and people who don't want to respond that way should consider what might have been the alternative.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,664 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    @MJohnston. Great post. Thanks for taking the time to write down your thoughts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 44 HurlingBoy


    100% the correct decision to issue a red warning. Certainly the majority of people stayed indoors and headed the warning. In my opinion a red warning should mean all schools, businesses, factories shut down. It seems for the private sector there was no real guideline and particularly on a weekend it may have been difficult for some employers contact there employee and many went to work but but were told to go home. Should legislation come into effect to remove the any ambiguity for private sector workers i.e Red Warning = Do Not Come to Work.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,485 ✭✭✭✭joujoujou
    Unregistered Users


    Sadly poll gives no option "they should've amended Red Alert regions" or the likes - I'd vote for.

    Early forecasts showed highest dangers for S, W and NW later. Late forecasts showed them for S, SE and E. Correct me if I'm wrong.

    The fact is, storm Doris (23 Feb 2017) made significantly more destruction in the region I waste my life in (SO/MO/RN).

    Highest yesterday's wind gust = 88.2 km/h (mean = 75.7 km/h), Doris = 100 km/h (83 km/h) respectively.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 33,519 ✭✭✭✭dudara


    They made the right call. In such situations you have to warn early and warn often (and even then, some people still won't hear it). By doing so on Sunday they gave everyone time to prepare.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,725 ✭✭✭✭HeidiHeidi


    MJohnston wrote: »
    This has all been said already, but I'd like to write my thoughts down as I think the context for these decisions is easily forgotten and already was being lost yesterday, never mind a couple of months down the line.

    The important thing when judging this decision is to try and rid your mind of all hindsight, because nobody at ME is psychic, so far as I know. Then you have to consider the context:

    First thing to remember is that on Saturday and Sunday, multiple models were giving slightly different tracks that altered the course of the storm by the most marginal of degrees. However, in an Irish context, those marginal degrees were the difference between the more westerly track the storm did take, and one that was maybe 50 miles more easterly. Had the track been more easterly, it would have more significantly affected the east coast than the strong effects it did have.

    The second piece of context is that the judgement call for warning levels made on Sunday morning was inarguably going to be the one that had the most impact. Issue a nationwide Orange warning, with Red warnings for the southwest, and then change that on Sunday evening, and you would have had complete chaos. People in the newly affected Red Warning areas would be caught completely unprepared, never mind the local authorities that relied on those warnings to get ready.

    Put those 2 things together, and the result is this - Met Eireann had to make a call on Sunday morning at the latest as to what they thought the worst conditions Ophelia could bring might be. They had to do this with the benefit of a lot of meteorological insight that was just imprecise enough to not be able to narrow the potential effects to a specific area of the country.

    Now you can start thinking about all the other things that are relevant to this judgement call in hindsight:

    1. I don't think anybody at all is arguing that the Red warnings for the southwest counties weren't warranted, that is being widely accepted as the right call and an extremely necessary one.
    2. People outside of the track of the modelled worst effects of the storm died (particularly the poor fellow in Ravensdale who was out long before the storm was due to truly impact that part of the country).
    3. Belfast, Dublin and many other cities that were 'less affected' had countless amounts of trees that collapsed onto roads. As we sadly saw with 2 of the deaths, that is extremely dangerous.

    Now throw that hindsight together with the original context that I wrote about:

    If you think that the red warnings for the Southwest were justified, and you accept that Met Eireann had to make their call by Sunday morning at the latest, and you understand that at that point the forecast models were showing small differences in track that would have resulted in more easterly effects, you have to come to the conclusion that the red warnings were justified for the entire country.

    There's one other thing to consider, and I posted this in another thread, and I'll just use the metaphor I did there:

    Think about how in the lead up to the year 2000, there was a lot of hype and anxiety about the Y2K bug. Perhaps you didn't live through that, but it was a huge story, which was that a core, date-based flaw to computer systems could cause widespread system failures, or even just a ****load of software bugs that would be annoying as hell. So, in 1999 there was an absolutely huge global effort to upgrade affected systems and software to be "Y2K Compliant". For the most part a vast majority of people took the advice and everyone rushed to have their devices and their apps ready and prepared. Certainly nearly all the vital systems like Air Traffic Control or power station automation were 'fixed'. People though were still very anxious about what would happen come the new year.

    Fast forward to January 1st 2000, and lo-and-behold, airplanes didn't fall out of the sky, and nuclear power stations didn't explode.

    Yet, the response wasn't "Great, we avoided this huge catastrophe (or this huge pain in the ass at the very least) by preparing for it and being ready". No, the response was "That Y2K thing was a whole load of bull****, nothing happened!".

    Can you see the flaw in the logical thinking there?

    To bring it back to the topic, we had a Red Warning countrywide, and as a result lots of people prepared for the storm, and made arrangements to be able to stay indoors and safe at home. Businesses stayed closed, public transport operators kept their vehicles and drivers off the streets. And as a result of that, the response should be "Great, we avoided further widespread deaths and injuries by preparing for it and being ready", and people who don't want to respond that way should consider what might have been the alternative.

    I'd like to see this printed in all the national newspapers/websites, for maximum exposure.

    The amount of "pah, what was all the fuss about" I'm hearing around the place has me sickened.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,305 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The poll is somewhat skewed by the wording of option (c) which is what I just voted for.

    The "other position" would have been to extend Friday's original red warnings to a larger group of counties. IIRC the original warnings were for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Kerry, and Cork. There was quite a bit of discussion here about adding Limerick, Waterford, Wexford and then some other counties.

    Perhaps if the warning had been extended to all counties except Ulster, Mayo and Sligo that might have come closer to being meteorologically valid. But then most of the criticism of the nationwide designation seems to originate in Dublin and probably they would have been in this somewhat less comprehensive almost everywhere red warning and we'd be having this discussion anyway.

    So really what it boils down to is, should a red warning have included Dublin. As the system is county oriented, if the forecasters think a condition red would apply somewhere in the county, they have to include it. Probably at no time did anyone there or here or in any forecast group think that everywhere in Dublin county (which I understand is an outdated concept in political terms but not relevant to this warning system) was going to see red criteria met, but perhaps coastal locations and a scattering of inland locations. Also it was becoming more possible with later model runs that there could have been a more eastward track shift at the last minute (which did not happen) and that might have produced more widespread red conditions in Dublin. And another relevant point was that Kildare was looking more likely to see widespread damaging gusts as part of the inland surge from the south coast so with a lot of people routinely travelling from Kildare to Dublin that would have been a consideration.

    The perfect compromise might have been to leave some other counties out, but given that they were well into orange warning potential and the already widespread nature of the red warnings, it made sense administratively to go with the entire country.

    So I was torn between voting for the nationwide option or this third option, depending on whether you think the question is mainly a public safety question or a meteorological question (this storm illustrated how the two things are not necessarily exactly the same).


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,164 ✭✭✭Neamhshuntasach


    No. Early Sunday, just from even looking at the technical thread on here and reading comments from some of the more reliable posters. It could be told that most of the east coast would not be too bad. And certainly not warrant a red warning. So it's not all hindsight. I had been telling friends and relatives all up to Saturday night to take it seriously and not dismiss it. But by Sunday i was telling them that it won't be as bad for the east.

    I've lived in both hurricane and tornado prone areas and when a highest level warning is issued and something doesn't materialize. The rational thought of many isn't, oh well at least the precaution was taken. It erodes confidence in future warnings. That's what happened me after evacuations and hitting the storm cellar over the years. You begin to take them less seriously as hindsight beings to influence one each time.

    I had bins out that didn't fall and i also stuck an old towel on the line with 2 pegs and it stayed there. That was in Malahide. Just to give an indication of how "bad" it was out here. I just hope that if a storm does track this way in the future and legitimately warrants a red alert in now cast, that people don't refer back to Ophelia and say, well sure that wasn't bad despite all the hype.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,725 ✭✭✭✭HeidiHeidi


    No. Early Sunday, just from even looking at the technical thread on here and reading comments from some of the more reliable posters. It could be told that most of the east coast would not be too bad. And certainly not warrant a red warning. So it's not all hindsight. I had been telling friends and relatives all up to Saturday night to take it seriously and not dismiss it. But by Sunday i was telling them that it won't be as bad for the east.

    I've lived in both hurricane and tornado prone areas and when a highest level warning is issued and something doesn't materialize. The rational thought of many isn't, oh well at least the precaution was taken. It erodes confidence in future warnings. That's what happened me after evacuations and hitting the storm cellar over the years. You begin to take them less seriously as hindsight beings to influence one each time.

    I had bins out that didn't fall and i also stuck an old towel on the line with 2 pegs and it stayed there. That was in Malahide. Just to give an indication of how "bad" it was out here. I just hope that if a storm does track this way in the future and legitimately warrants a red alert in now cast, that people don't refer back to Ophelia and say, well sure that wasn't bad despite all the hype.

    And what if the storm hadn't taken that slight turn westwards, that couldn't be forecast in advance?

    What about all the trees and slates that fell and roofs that lifted in the eastern counties that would have fallen on busy roads/locations had everyone not been on "Red Alert" and mostly stayed indoors?

    The fact that your teatowel stayed on the line is neither here nor there, to be honest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,373 ✭✭✭sjb25


    Yes better to over react than under react and you are left scrambling.

    I work in the emergency services and we have a saying when thinking do you need extra resources at an incident which some people may see as an over reaction its "better to be looking at them than looking for them"
    Same principal here do it instead of wishing you had
    over react have everything you may need in place if you don't then happy days it wasn't that bad.

    So they wer absolutely correct mostly everyone is safe unfortunately 3 people lost their lives but mostly everyone is safe who cars bout a day of production or business lost.

    In some places yes it was an over reaction in some places it was not it was a dynamic situation nobody could tell for sure so a red alert everywhere was reasonable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    I saw a picture of a tree down earlier in Dublin which would more than likely have landed on a car if it was rush hour traffic.

    There is an unfortunate balancing act here, you can't shut down the entire country even if lives are at risk. However I think it was reasonable to project that with a large "unknown" hanging over an unprecedented weather event, which would almost certainly lead to lots of fallen trees, downed power lines and flooding, the death toll would have run into double figures if a strong warning was not given.

    In the end I think most "essential" staff stayed working which is probably the right balance. I don't think the HQ of any foreign multinational is going to be put off investing in Ireland because of our reaction to a one-off weather event - they'll be more surprised the place isn't in bits after what was said in the media to be our first experience of a hurricane.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,134 ✭✭✭✭elperello


    There are people walking around today who would be in hospital or even worse without the warning.
    So yes they did the right thing.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭ Rayden Purple Worm


    I had advised my son's school principal on Sunday afternoon to close with the orange warning having followed the threads here.

    Red was the right call. A little to the east would have been a disaster.
    More people on the roads would have been disastrous.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,371 ✭✭✭TheAnalyst_


    spurious wrote: »
    No children were killed on their way to school.
    Good enough for me.
    They should have it every day then just to be safe. And cars limited to 5mph just to be safe because a life trumps everything.


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