Were Met E Correct to Extend the Red Warning Countrywide

Harry Palmr

The only thing they got wrong was that they waited too long before issuing it, it was clear enough that the eastern half of the country was not going to be let off Scott free by Ophilia and as long as yellow was in place there was an apparent reluctance to really ramp up the warnings. The NECC would have met 24 hours earlier I imagine and so we'd all have been that bit better prepared esp re schools, work and public transport and fewer people would have been going "Ah sure it'll only be a bit windy"

BoatMad

Rayden Purple Worm wrote: »

I had advised my son's school principal on Sunday afternoon to close with the orange warning having followed the threads here.

Red was the right call. A little to the east would have been a disaster.
More people on the roads would have been disastrous.

eastery track would have not resulted in much different damage profile. The strongest winds are well to the east of the centre anyway

The big advantage of a westerly track was the rain largely fell in the sea

donal.hunt

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The only thing they got wrong was that they waited too long before issuing it, it was clear enough that the eastern half of the country was not going to be let off Scott free by Ophilia and as long as yellow was in place there was an apparent reluctance to really ramp up the warnings. The NECC would have met 24 hours earlier I imagine and so we'd all have been that bit better prepared esp re schools, work and public transport and fewer people would have been going "Ah sure it'll only be a bit windy"

100% agree with this. The countrywide red alert was communicated on Sunday (anyone got an exact time?) without clear guidance of what that meant for businesses and transport. Issuing it on Saturday would have allowed time for consultation and clarification.

For the next countrywide / county-wide red alert, I expect that there will be a much more decisive approach taken. e.g. all public transport will end before the allotted period. All employees should have completed their journey home (or arrived in work if that makes sense). More clarity regarding what are essential services would also make sense.

Given some of the discussion around being out and about / pursuing pasttimes during an extreme weather events, clarity around expectations are worthwhile. No watersports even of you are very experienced personnel. No tree cutting until after the alert is lifted (exceptions allowed through consultantation with regional emergency committees). The fallen trees will still be there after the alert is lifted and the whole point is to minimise loss of life.

Harry Palmr

The RED was issued and the NECC press conference was just before lunchtime on Sunday.

endacl

I was about to respond to your poll, OP. Then I remembered I’m not in the least bit qualified to make that kind of decision.

I do bear in mind two facts, informed by hindsight. People died, who would otherwise be alive, as a direct result of yesterday’s storm. Therefore it was a storm with the potential to cause harm to anybody unlucky enough to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. The warning resulted in the vast majority of people being in th right place at the wrong time. So, my layman’s position is, they probably made the correct decision, which I won’t argue with.

M.T. Cranium

Well the thing is there are probably 20 or 30 people alive today who would not be alive today, but nobody knows which 20 or 30 they are so it's an abstract discussion.

If an angel appeared in your living room and said "in the alternate universe of limited warnings you were a dead man," then your attitude might be pretty positive about the extended red.

Your friends and family on the other hand ...

Hooter23

Yes they were correct...I think saving lives is more important than a little bit of inconvenience caused by the red alert...Better safe than sorry

Irish Steve

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well the thing is there are probably 20 or 30 people alive today who would not be alive today, but nobody knows which 20 or 30 they are so it's an abstract discussion.

If an angel appeared in your living room and said "in the alternate universe of limited warnings you were a dead man," then your attitude might be pretty positive about the extended red.

Your friends and family on the other hand ...

Wish I could have written/posted such a clear and definitive response!

As it doesn't show unless you go to page 1, I think the present poll result is worth mentioning, the vote at present is Right 423/ Wrong 18/ Other 11, and there's under 70 posts, so there's a whole lot of people who have feelings about this, but have not chosen to specifically comment. That's good enough for me.

elperello

TheAnalyst_ wrote: »

They should have it every day then just to be safe. And cars limited to 5mph just to be safe because a life trumps everything.

Analyse this.

Gmaximum

I’m not a weather expert and in hindsight they were correct.

I think the big problem people had was the short notice of school closures and then the decision to close all schools today.

The challenge for business is how they react to these situations, just like an insurance policy they need to invest in the technology to enable people to work from home. Extreme weather and travel disruption is becoming increasingly common.

BoatMad

Gmaximum wrote: »

I’m not a weather expert and in hindsight they were correct.

I think the big problem people had was the short notice of school closures and then the decision to close all schools today.

The challenge for business is how they react to these situations, just like an insurance policy they need to invest in the technology to enable people to work from home. Extreme weather and travel disruption is becoming increasingly common.

The decision to close schools today could only be taken in the light of the storms progression yesterday.

Estrellita

Voted 'yes' the Met were correct to issue red. It really is a case of 'damned if you do, and damned if you don't' with some people. I also think it was necessary to have schools closed for the second day. Of course damage assessment would have to be done. If parents were told to send their children into potentially damaged buildings and something happened then of course heads would roll.

Prevention is better than the alternative, I don't know why it's so hard for some to comprehend that.

Sleeper12

If they saved a single life then they did the right thing.

The need to lay out what a red warning means. Should people go to work or stay at home.

StripedBoxers

In my opinion they were absolutely 100% correct and if we were ever in such a situation again I would hope they would again issue such a warning.

There is no doubt in my mind that had they not issued it there would have been many more deaths and injuries.

I included this in a post last night, and I will include in this one too.

People seem to forget that rescue workers, guards, paramedics etc are people too and also have families, yet they don't give a rats backside about that, no, they only care when they themselves get into bother.

The emergency services were under enough pressure yesterday without it being added to unnecessarily.

Anyone who does it unnecessarily should be arrested and fined and if they are minors, then their parents should be held accountable. There is no excuse for it, none whatsoever. It's entirely selfish.

nuac

froog wrote: »

let's be honest here. the people whingeing are most likely business owners who care about losing some money than the safety of their staff.

Very unfair and ignorant remark about business owners

Neamhshuntasach

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

And what if the storm hadn't taken that slight turn westwards, that couldn't be forecast in advance?

What about all the trees and slates that fell and roofs that lifted in the eastern counties that would have fallen on busy roads/locations had everyone not been on "Red Alert" and mostly stayed indoors?

The fact that your teatowel stayed on the line is neither here nor there, to be honest.

What do you mean, hadn't taken the turn westwards? It did take a turn westwards. And well in advance of even the slightest of breezes in Dublin. I read on here that much of the east wouldn't be impacted the way the rest of the south would be. A red warning could have been rescinded for the counties it wasn't warranted in.

Of course the towel example is relevant. There will be many people that will have a similar marker of how bad it was. And if thats what a red warning was for them. They may not react when it actually is necessary and it really is a red warning for them. I've seen it time and time again from living in, Louisiana and Texas.

Gaoth Laidir

I voted No, but also wish there was another option for extending the original red to more counties.

The countrywide warning was completely over the top and unwarranted imo. Certainly the original warning was warranted in some counties of the south and southeast, and based on the latest models overnight Saturday/Sunday morning, maybe should have been extended to include more counties through the midlands, while having the rest under Orange.

This is how we fared with gusts.



[/hindsight]

We're still waiting on the Sherkin data, which I'm sure will top the list. However, the criterion for a Red warning is

- Mean speeds >80 kph, and/or
- Gusts >130 kph

There was no indication that these thresholds would be met in the area more or less east of the Shannon or indeed in much of the north midlands and north Leinster. About 2/3 of the country always looked to be safe from such winds. As it happened, around 80% of the country was safe (see above).

Loss of life is tragic, however storms have killed before and there was never an outcry of "Why didn't they put the country on alert and tell everyone to stay indoors!?". The decision of Sunday was appropriate for the likes of Barbuda, BVI, Puerto Rico, etc., where we're talking real winds over the whole area of a country. These countries must be looking at us and scratching their heads, in between searching for more victims and rebuilding their lives.

I have a question. Why were the airports not also put on shut-down? How come the likes of bus, rail, etc. got to stay at home, yet Dublin and Shannon airports remained open? Cork, Kerry, etc. were closed. Why were the employees of Dublin and Shannon forced to come to work while others got to "sit it out" at home? Is it because of the international consequences of closing an international airport? Better to contain the consequences to a national level? It's either a national Red Alert or it isn't. It's either hazardous or it isn't. If it's not safe for a bus driver to go to work, how is it safe for an airport worker?

I'm a big fan of Met Éireann and support them 100%, however I do think they made a rash decision, no doubt under profound pressure from all angles. The data were telling them no, just like the rest of us, but they went with Red. I wonder how they privately refect on that decision now the (Saharan) dust has settled.

Having said all that, the families of the three victims must be remembered first. The rest is all irrelevant.

TheAnalyst_

Exactly. If you cry wolf then you put people at greater risk for future storms.

We were told this was a once in a lifetime event yet I knew people who landed in Dublin during the height of it.

hatrickpatrick

They absolutely were. Even in Dun Laoghaire where I live, we had fallen trees, tree branches, and shop signs, for sale signs, other such weakly affixed heavy objects having been blown around. Some of these things became loose and got carried away by the wind in the blink of an eye without any warning at all. Would have only taken a second of bad luck for somebody to be seriously injured or worse by such projectiles - if Dun Laoghaire town had been as busy with pedestrians as it usually is, I'd state with almost 100% certainty that we'd have been hearing of very serious injuries in the area this morning.

donal.hunt

TheAnalyst_ wrote: »

Exactly. If you cry wolf then you put people at greater risk for future storms.

We were told this was a once in a lifetime event yet I knew people who landed in Dublin during the height of it.

I'm interested to hear the opinion of pilots regarding operating flights in these conditions. From another thread, there appeared to be a good few diversions, go-arounds, etc in Dublin airport. My sense from Ryanair was that unless the airport was closed, they were going to fly while other airlines decided it was simpler to just cancel and accommodate passengers once the weather settled today.

BrianD3

ME was both incorrect and correct. Based on ME's own wind speed criteria for red and orange warnings and the projected wind speeds, it was not a red warning for much of the country.

IMO the warning system is undermined by this. It would be different if the wind speeds were a projected "red" but with hindsight turned out to be "orange".

However, perhaps the criteria need to be looked at with a weighting/multiplier applied depending on whether a storm is forecast to occur at nighttime on Christmas Eve (as happened in 1997) or during a normal school and work day.

In this case a national red warning was issued and there was a lot of media coverage. Had it been an orange warning with less media coverage there would almost certainly have been more deaths. The red warning was needed because
a) People are idiots
b) People are litigious
c) In the current jobs market employers have power to force people into doing things that they don't want to do e.g. long commutes, coming in to work during a storm

The authorities reacted to this by issuing a blanket red warning when technically an orange warning should have been issued.

The storm wasn't "unprecedented" and it's very debatable whether it was the "worst in over 50 years". Was there a need to keep repeating the word "hurricane" every few seconds. Did Joanna Donnelly really need to be teaching people the basics of driving "now if you're driving around a bend go slowly as you may come across a fallen tree".

Well based on point a) above maybe she was right!

hatrickpatrick

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

What do you mean, hadn't taken the turn westwards? It did take a turn westwards.

The projected westward turn came very late in the day, and that close range, the NHC can and does make mistakes - storms of that strength are unpredictable. The same thing happened with Hurricane Irma when it swung westward and missed most of the Florida peninsula at the last minute - certainly not a call anyone with responsibility for ensuring safety is going to make, IMO. If that westward wobble had been forecast a full day in advance, then maybe.

Gaoth Laidir

BrianD3 wrote: »

c) In the current jobs market employers have power to force people into doing things that they don't want to do e.g. long commutes, coming in to work during a storm

Forcing people to do long commutes? If you don't like the commute, either move house or move job.

George Sunsnow

I’m in Wicklow which wouldn’t have been red but today I saw a 4span cattle shed whose roof was torn clean off and in Arklow town a mobile home in a caravan park upturned moved and wrecked on top of another

So yeah that’s a red right there,more people might have been killed

donal.hunt

BrianD3 wrote: »

In this case a national red warning was issued and there was a lot of media coverage. Had it been an orange warning with less media coverage there would almost certainly have been more deaths. The red warning was needed because
a) People are idiots
b) People are litigious
c) In the current jobs market employers have power to force people into doing things that they don't want to do e.g. long commutes, coming in to work during a storm

The authorities reacted to this by issuing a blanket red warning when technically an orange warning should have been issued.

I suspect that discussion between NECC and ME resulted in the red warning being issued. i.e ME would not have issued a countrywide alert but the ability for a substantial number of people to heed the warning in their area (covering 35-50% of the country) was key. A nationwide red alert is very black and white and hard for people to justify ignoring.

It was pretty clear to me that there was a clear line between ME forecasting / providing data and the NECC who needed to make decisions that affected ~ 4.7 million people over the weekend. I think that's a good protocol to use and something that I've seen work well in other organisations before.

donal.hunt

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Forcing people to do long commutes? If you don't like the commute, either move house or move job.

With less than 24hours notice? I think not.

The reality is that they need to account for some percentage of people doing this. I'm sure why all know people who are doing 1-2 hours commutes into major urban areas (it's not just Dublin sadly) due to lifestyle choice / housing affordability.

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I'm a big fan of Met Éireann and support them 100%, however I do think they made a rash decision, no doubt under profound pressure from all angles. The data were telling them no, just like the rest of us, but they went with Red. I wonder how they privately refect on that decision now the (Saharan) dust has settled.

I think it's wrong to think that Met Eireann should be looking at the warning level system from an exclusively meteorological POV, which is what you seem to be suggesting in your post.

And I don't agree even from that meteorological POV - the data wasn't telling anyone 'no', there was absolutely nothing definitive about the predicted tracks of this storm, and without that, no definitive way of knowing where exactly the storm would go. There was massive uncertainty on Sunday morning in particular, which was when they made that key nationwide Red call.

As for people talking about the 'cry wolf' factor, I think that's a statement without foundation, I think there's more than enough people who will have seen that 3 people died, 2 of whom were doing nothing more 'dangerous' than driving a car. More than enough people will have seen the massive amounts of damage done to the southwest. I've chatted to my neighbours, some of whom were sceptical about the storm beforehand, and today they were mostly grateful that they missed the worst of it, because they can see the worst of it right on their TV screens.

People will remember those news reports, and those deaths, when the next warning comes around.

TheRiverman

Yes Met Eireann were correct.

flazio

nuac wrote: »

Very unfair and ignorant remark about business owners

Agree about tarring everyone with the same brush, however I have seen in another thread someone suggest they would not pay an employee who didn't turn up for work and split the owed wages to those who did turn up as a bonus. :rolleyes:
Absolutly the right call. It has been remarked over in the UK how it's 30 years since poor Michael Fish told the British public there was no hurricane coming and that cost many lives. A hurricane/Tropical Storm/Storm whatever you want to call it has never approached Ireland like this one did, there are no comparible conditions over in the Carribean or Asia in which we could make an accurate prediction as to what would happen. People say that some Czech site got it spot on by predicting it wouldn't be so bad up north. Big deal, if a camera shows me no traffic on the M50 at all, I'm not going to speed up there without a seatbelt.

Even if the next red alert, and the next turn out to be damp squibs in my area, I'm still going to take them seriously, just as I would any fire alarm even if I can't see any fire or smoke near me.
Life is too precoius to take chances on.

Oneiric 3

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Forcing people to do long commutes? If you don't like the commute, either move house or move job.

Most people don't have the opportunity to do that F. Jobs, despite the rhetoric spewed out by the establishment, are not easy to come by. Add to this the unprecedented levels of job insecurity, personal debt etc, and you are pretty much tied down.