Were Met E Correct to Extend the Red Warning Countrywide

Hooks Golf Handicap

Matter of some debate in the main chat thread.

Some posters (including myself) believe Met E overstepped the mark by extending Fridays Red Warning Countrywide.

Many believe that Met E were correct & this decision saved many lives.

I've stuck up a poll to gauge the public support for this decision, feel free to contribute.

Also, I'm aware I'm posting this poll in the Lions Den so to speak as the prevailing opinion is in favour of Met E.
I am prepared to reconsider my position should the perceived prevailing opinion rule me incorrect.

spurious

No children were killed on their way to school.
Good enough for me.

Kristopherus

Yes, Met Eireann were correct.

Where's the poll? Not showing for me.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

I don't post on the weather forum and I'm not a MÉ fanboy.

I think they were right to extend the red warning. Based on the available info they had, it suggested that it would be the worst storm in 56 years. That's enough for me.

3 people sadly died yesterday. The toll would almost certainly have been higher had the warning not been extended.

RocketRaccoon

What is the issue here? They issued it and most people listened so stayed indoors. How dare they try to save lives?

Sephiroth_dude

Of course they did the right, better too be safe than sorry, how can you not see that ?

Cee-Jay-Cee

They were correct. They were better to err on the side of caution. We have never had a storm like this in recorded history, so no one coyld have foretold, despite all the technology how severe it would be.
The schools closed for a second day may have been a bit OTT but certainly not for Monday.

They made a call and I respect them for it.

mloc123

Three people were killed even after being advised not to go outside etc... How many might have been killed if everyone went about their day as normal?

Reckless Abandonment

100% right. Trees down everywhere even in Dublin which escaped the worst of it. A normal working day this would of killed and injured many more.

Hooks Golf Handicap

Poll should now be visible.
Dis should read Did.

fryup

damned if they do damned if they don't

yes they did the right thing..well done ME and well done Joanna Donnelly

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

The schools closed for a second day may have been a bit OTT but certainly not for Monday.

That's solely a heath and safety issue, they have to allow for staff to go in and assess any damage and to make repairs as necessary lest a child be injured.

Comhrá

Judging by the empty roads and very quiet town centres around the country Status Red worked and probably prevented a lot of potential accidents/tragedies, so yes, I think Red countrywide was the correct call.

Snotty

And if it wasn't a Red Alert and people died, you'd be first on complaining that they didn't do enough. Very easy for people sitting behind their comfortable computer never having to make an important decision in their lives, giving out about the people who have to make the hard decisions.

froog

let's be honest here. the people whingeing are most likely business owners who care about losing some money than the safety of their staff.

daheff

froog wrote: »

let's be honest here. the people whingeing are most likely business owners who care about losing some money than the safety of their staff.

Yesterday should show a lot of workers exactly how much their company thinks of them. Some companies pay lip-service to saying staff are key to their business...but still wouldn't heed official warnings to stay indoors/only make journeys if absolutely required.

I reckon we'll see a lot of people looking at moving jobs in the near future cos they now realise the company doesn't give a damn about them.

Silverbling

yes they did, I am in Dublin and did not think it was that bad until I went out to put the bag in the wheelie bin, I ended up flat on my back, it blew me over like a paper doll

Hooks Golf Handicap

Currently getting my ass handed to me 50:1

coolisin

100% Correct.

Not one ounce of me believes they where incorrect. The conditions in some locations where horrendous.
At the time that could have extended to the entire country.

But Dublin didn't get hit so Met Eireann where wrong?!

Imagine they didn't, schools ran no damage was done to any of the schools, but then parents couldn't pick the kids.
Or a family killed by a tree falling.

I was stuck attempting to return home at 11am after I was told I had to get into work.
I believe this was a massive mistake to issue this order to employees, as I had to get back to safety when things appeared to be at their worst for me.

Edit: Until Sunday I was not in the RED Zone either.

Akrasia

There was a sting jet which hit just off the south coast. If that hit over land, we would have seen major hurricane strength winds over populated areas

Sting jets are a 'now cast' situation, it's not currently possible to predict if or where they will form with any precision using existing technology

The National red alert was absolutely the right call given the danger associated with this storm. A lot of people were severely impacted up to and including the tragic loss of life, and places that were not severely affected could easily have been if the track had shifted by even a small amount, well within the margin of error of the 24 hour outlook from Friday into Saturday.

GritBiscuit

Given the unpredictability of weather generally and the fact there was no way to isolate specific areas so that any warning would be clear and precise - a national warning was the only alternative.

The only ones complaining appear to be those from areas that were not badly affected. Lucky them. As a house-holder who has a damaged roof and is surrounded by downed trees, lost power and closed roads in an area that was never originally a red alert, I think they made the right call.

Lumi

Looks like a resounding YES in the poll so far

Hooks Golf Handicap

Lumi wrote: »

Looks like a resounding YES in the poll so far

Tastes so good

RicketyCricket

Of course it was the right call. If it hadn't been issued countrywide and people died or places got destroyed in an area that didn't have a red warning there would be uproar. Some people are never happy.

expectationlost

I want to ask about the time period of the warning, they about the east coast in the afternoon so anyone doing anything there in the morning would be fine https://twitter.com/MetAlertIreland/status/919647014899605504/photo/1

one could say that resources from a calm area of the country could be needed in a storm affected area, but it would it not be better to use whatever predictions you have and be a bit more specific and then people were believe you more.

scarepanda

100% correct.

We live in an area that got away with the storm very very lightly. However, my partner works in Galway so he would have been driving into one of the original red warning areas. He drives the M6 which is quite exposed in a few areas with a couple of very strong cross winds at the best of times. I think a lot of people would have been in this situation, having to commute into or out of red warning areas. I think having to commute out of one would have been worse as your employer may not have had any regards for your local situation or the dangers posed.

Thankfully in our situation my OH works for a company that are very understanding and an email was sent out by his boss Sunday morning for their team to work from home yesterday.

jasper100

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

Matter of some debate in the main chat thread.

Some posters (including myself) believe Met E overstepped the mark by extending Fridays Red Warning Countrywide.

Many believe that Met E were correct & this decision saved many lives.

I've stuck up a poll to gauge the public support for this decision, feel free to contribute.

Also, I'm aware I'm posting this poll in the Lions Den so to speak as the prevailing opinion is in favour of Met E.
I am prepared to reconsider my position should the perceived prevailing opinion rule me incorrect.

Some bellends in Co. Louth went kite surfing. Rescue services were called out, including a helicopter, which may have been required elsewhere for example to airlift somebody to hospital if local roads were blocked by trees.

Another bellend went for a swim in Salthill. Despite his macho interview afterwards, he could have been crushed against the handrail as he walked out the steps. More emergency services would have been required.

Had there not been a nationwide alert there would have been many more bellends doing more stupid things, putting further strain on emergency services who had better things to be doing yesterday.

Rubberchikken

I would vote the wishy washy one on the poll for the smile it raised.

But I agree with the decision they made.
It kept a lot of people in, which considering the three deaths attributed to the storm , was a blessing.
I work in what's considered an essential job but last night was my night off and I was very grateful that I didn't have to leave the house.
I certainly didn't envy anyone who had to.

So to recap - yes good decision met eireann

Three people died, had the red warning not been announced for the entire country the figure could have been much higher. If it saves a single life then the red warning is worth it, so what if people miss a day of work or their swim. I do think that in future if a red warning is made that anyone who decides to go swimming or kite surfing should be left to it. Wasting emergency services when they could be needed elsewhere. And the twat who wants to make a complaint about not being allowed kite surf should be forced to pay for the cast of the call out.

_Dara_

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

I am prepared to reconsider my position should the perceived prevailing opinion rule me incorrect.

Don't know about anyone else but I'm on the edge of my seat here waiting to see if OP changes his/her opinion!

Anyhoo, yes from me. Two people died in counties that were originally orange.

mosstin

jasper100 wrote: »

Some bellends in Co. Louth went kite surfing. Rescue services were called out, including a helicopter, which may have been required elsewhere for example to airlift somebody to hospital if local roads were blocked by trees.

Another bellend went for a swim in Salthill. Despite his macho interview afterwards, he could have been crushed against the handrail as he walked out the steps. More emergency services would have been required.

Had there not been a nationwide alert there would have been many more bellends doing more stupid things, putting further strain on emergency services who had better things to be doing yesterday.

I'm 100% convinced that we've become such attention seeking whores as human beings that some folk decided yesterday morning to go out, do something stupid in the storm just to see what attention it would get. That then puts other people's lives in danger when they've got to go out and rescue them.

Hooks Golf Handicap

_Dara_ wrote: »

Don't know about anyone else but I'm on the edge of my seat here waiting to see if OP changes his/her opinion!

I am open to persuasion on this topic as I'm not a qualified meteorologist nor a disaster relief planner.

I went with my gut on this one as I often do.
I thought Met E had been pressured into making a wrong decision.

My gut looks as though it was incorrect.

_Dara_

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

I thought Met E had been pressured into making a wrong decision.

Why would you think that?

People died in areas that were originally orange. The alert needed to be upgraded to red and that proves it.

FrancieBrady

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

I am open to persuasion on this topic as I'm not a qualified meteorologist nor a disaster relief planner.

I went with my gut on this one as I often do.
I thought Met E had been pressured into making a wrong decision.

My gut looks as though it was incorrect.

All I ask is that reasonable informed decisions are made. And in this case it was reasonable and as informed as it could be.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

If it saves a single life then the red warning is worth it

I have no issue with the decision - weather is unpredictable and it was a large and powerful storm heading our way.

But the logic of 'well if it saves one life then it was worth it' really doesn't stack up. Why not have a red warning every windy day just in case someone gets hit by a flying branch?

The argument is that a red warning should be used very, very rarely and if over-used you are just teaching people to ignore it. I totally get that in this event it was simpler and more direct to make it for the whole country for the whole day, but the truth is in Dublin up until 1pm the wind wasn't even particularly strong - but the county had been under a red warning for 7 hours by then.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

I have no issue with the decision - weather is unpredictable and it was a large and powerful storm heading our way.

But the logic of 'well if it saves one life then it was worth it' really doesn't stack up. Why not have a red warning every windy day just in case someone gets hit by a flying branch?

The argument is that a red warning should be used very, very rarely and if over-used you are just teaching people to ignore it. I totally get that in this event it was simpler and more direct to make it for the whole country for the whole day, but the truth is in Dublin up until 1pm the wind wasn't even particularly strong - but the county had been under a red warning for 7 hours by then.

The problem for the met was 'should they allow children go to school or people to work. They had to take - a whole day, whole evolving storm - view.

sryanbruen

Is this even a question? Like it has a pretty obvious - and common sensible - answer. Of course, they were right to extend the red warning countrywide and having a red warning in the first place. Better to be safe than sorry!

As posters have said, if Met Éireann didn't take the action they did, the death toll would be higher than just 3 people. Now, any death is tragic obviously but it could have been so much worse.

In my area, the warning could have been considered overhyped as I had no damage whatsoever BUT I, and neither does any other individual area/region etc, stand for the whole of Ireland. I think that it was a huge well done to Met Éireann on Ophelia.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I have no issue with the decision - weather is unpredictable and it was a large and powerful storm heading our way.

But the logic of 'well if it saves one life then it was worth it' really doesn't stack up. Why not have a red warning every windy day just in case someone gets hit by a flying branch?

The argument is that a red warning should be used very, very rarely and if over-used you are just teaching people to ignore it. I totally get that in this event it was simpler and more direct to make it for the whole country for the whole day, but the truth is in Dublin up until 1pm the wind wasn't even particularly strong - but the county had been under a red warning for 7 hours by then.

It's not overused though, it's rare that we see them. Having a red warning only come into effect in Dublin at 1 pm yesterday could have resulted in large numbers of people leaving their place of work and heading home as the worst hits. The warning is there to protect lives and sometimes they have to be a little broad with it and no harm.

expectationlost

jasper100 wrote: »

Some bellends in Co. Louth went kite surfing. Rescue services were called out, including a helicopter, which may have been required elsewhere for example to airlift somebody to hospital if local roads were blocked by trees.

Another bellend went for a swim in Salthill. Despite his macho interview afterwards, he could have been crushed against the handrail as he walked out the steps. More emergency services would have been required.

Had there not been a nationwide alert there would have been many more bellends doing more stupid things, putting further strain on emergency services who had better things to be doing yesterday.

it was windsurfers who didn't need help https://www.facebook.com/HelicopterRescue116/posts/1979371872342168

crushed against the handrail? was it really that rough at that time in the morning?

Larbre34

By Met Éireann's own admission, the Orange / Red conditions away from the South and West coasts were marginal. Joanna Donnelly dealt with this head on on Claire Byrne's show last night - she said herself and senior forecaster Evelyn Cusack had precisely that discussion with Eoin Moran, the Director of MÉ and on the balance of risk to life and limb by upper Orange level conditions in some areas, the Red Level alert was agreed to give the Emergency Co-ordination team certainty for their decisions.

As an example of why I think it was absolutely right, I am aware of 3 separate trees down on busy main roads near where I work. They caused no injuries, but they fell and took down live power lines at normally busy times close to suburban schools but because of the Red alert, there was practically nobody moving around at the time. There is no question that saved injuries and deaths and I'm sure that was replicated around the Country.

1-0 to Met É as far as Im concerned.

expectationlost

OSI wrote: »

All 3 of the people that died were in counties that were outside the original red alert issued, no?

is all that tells you is people can die in orange criteria alerts zones too?

Daffodil.d

I follow this thread all the time but rarely post. I think they were right in their decision. They gave a red warning and there were still people out putting their lives, and potentially the lives of the rescue services at risk by swimming in the sea etc. Most people did take the advice. I think if they had a lower warning a lot more people would have taken it casually. I'm in Waterford and it was pretty scary here yesterday afternoon. I was nervous. Not my normal style at all. This had never happened before so being cautious was the right approach. 3 people lost their lives. There could have been more.

Caranica

The hole in my roof (in Dublin) says it was absolutely the right thing to do. The force at which the flying slates hit the front path scared the life out of me. They would have caused serious injury or worse had someone been hit by them.

Looking at the damage around the estate the wind was coming from some funny angles!

NeonCookies

Long post that has been building all day listening to people moaning in work.

Absolutely the right decision to go red.

We were lucky. This storm was huge, as big as our island. If it tracked a little to the east, the eye could have travelled up the centre of the country with dangerous winds to the east and heavy rain to the west (if my reading of the technical forum was correct over the last few days - I'm not an expert, just have an interest!). Met Eireann could not know the exact track so went on the basis of predictions and probabilities. If the storm was due to hit during the night, maybe they could have gotten away with holding off on red alerts but that wasn't the case.

If the storm as it was yesterday hit during a typical Monday there would have been chaos and more lives would have been lost. If a storm as bad as the one Met Eireann believed could be coming had hit during a typical Monday then we would have been in serious serious danger.

A nationwide red alert was a decision that made sense based on the best available information.

I myself didn't think it was "that bad" yesterday as I was curled up on my sofa safe in my house, occasionally muting the tv to listen to the wind or peer out the window. Then I heard a poor man had died 3 miles from my house when a tree fell on his car. It was that bad.

We (for the most part) were lucky and should be thankful of that instead of finding something else to moan about.

Well done Met Eireann.

weisses

Yes, valid decision .. it didn't even warranted a yellow warning where I live in w Kerry IMO ...

So many places got impacted that usually doesn't see these high winds

goat2

Yes they were right to do so, schools closed kept children safe, first and foremost , safety

munsterlegend

NeonCookies wrote: »

Long post that has been building all day listening to people moaning in work.

Absolutely the right decision to go red.

We were lucky. This storm was huge, as big as our island. If it tracked a little to the east, the eye could have travelled up the centre of the country with dangerous winds to the east and heavy rain to the west (if my reading of the technical forum was correct over the last few days - I'm not an expert, just have an interest!). Met Eireann could not know the exact track so went on the basis of predictions and probabilities. If the storm was due to hit during the night, maybe they could have gotten away with holding off on red alerts but that wasn't the case.

If the storm as it was yesterday hit during a typical Monday there would have been chaos and more lives would have been lost. If a storm as bad as the one Met Eireann believed could be coming had hit during a typical Monday then we would have been in serious serious danger.

A nationwide red alert was a decision that made sense based on the best available information.

I myself didn't think it was "that bad" yesterday as I was curled up on my sofa safe in my house, occasionally muting the tv to listen to the wind or peer out the window. Then I heard a poor man had died 3 miles from my house when a tree fell on his car. It was that bad.

We (for the most part) were lucky and should be thankful of that instead of finding something else to moan about.

Well done Met Eireann.

That was an awful tragedy near you. A baby less than 2 months old losing his father as well as other child and wife. While technically based on forecast it was not red for certain counties Ireland is really too small to differentiate between counties for a storm as big as this crossing the country. Cork was always red so surely parts of nearby limerick and tipp were also the same.

MJohnston

This has all been said already, but I'd like to write my thoughts down as I think the context for these decisions is easily forgotten and already was being lost yesterday, never mind a couple of months down the line.

The important thing when judging this decision is to try and rid your mind of all hindsight, because nobody at ME is psychic, so far as I know. Then you have to consider the context:

First thing to remember is that on Saturday and Sunday, multiple models were giving slightly different tracks that altered the course of the storm by the most marginal of degrees. However, in an Irish context, those marginal degrees were the difference between the more westerly track the storm did take, and one that was maybe 50 miles more easterly. Had the track been more easterly, it would have more significantly affected the east coast than the strong effects it did have.

The second piece of context is that the judgement call for warning levels made on Sunday morning was inarguably going to be the one that had the most impact. Issue a nationwide Orange warning, with Red warnings for the southwest, and then change that on Sunday evening, and you would have had complete chaos. People in the newly affected Red Warning areas would be caught completely unprepared, never mind the local authorities that relied on those warnings to get ready.

Put those 2 things together, and the result is this - Met Eireann had to make a call on Sunday morning at the latest as to what they thought the worst conditions Ophelia could bring might be. They had to do this with the benefit of a lot of meteorological insight that was just imprecise enough to not be able to narrow the potential effects to a specific area of the country.

Now you can start thinking about all the other things that are relevant to this judgement call in hindsight:

1. I don't think anybody at all is arguing that the Red warnings for the southwest counties weren't warranted, that is being widely accepted as the right call and an extremely necessary one.
2. People outside of the track of the modelled worst effects of the storm died (particularly the poor fellow in Ravensdale who was out long before the storm was due to truly impact that part of the country).
3. Belfast, Dublin and many other cities that were 'less affected' had countless amounts of trees that collapsed onto roads. As we sadly saw with 2 of the deaths, that is extremely dangerous.

Now throw that hindsight together with the original context that I wrote about:

If you think that the red warnings for the Southwest were justified, and you accept that Met Eireann had to make their call by Sunday morning at the latest, and you understand that at that point the forecast models were showing small differences in track that would have resulted in more easterly effects, you have to come to the conclusion that the red warnings were justified for the entire country.

There's one other thing to consider, and I posted this in another thread, and I'll just use the metaphor I did there:

Think about how in the lead up to the year 2000, there was a lot of hype and anxiety about the Y2K bug. Perhaps you didn't live through that, but it was a huge story, which was that a core, date-based flaw to computer systems could cause widespread system failures, or even just a ****load of software bugs that would be annoying as hell. So, in 1999 there was an absolutely huge global effort to upgrade affected systems and software to be "Y2K Compliant". For the most part a vast majority of people took the advice and everyone rushed to have their devices and their apps ready and prepared. Certainly nearly all the vital systems like Air Traffic Control or power station automation were 'fixed'. People though were still very anxious about what would happen come the new year.

Fast forward to January 1st 2000, and lo-and-behold, airplanes didn't fall out of the sky, and nuclear power stations didn't explode.

Yet, the response wasn't "Great, we avoided this huge catastrophe (or this huge pain in the ass at the very least) by preparing for it and being ready". No, the response was "That Y2K thing was a whole load of bull****, nothing happened!".

Can you see the flaw in the logical thinking there?

To bring it back to the topic, we had a Red Warning countrywide, and as a result lots of people prepared for the storm, and made arrangements to be able to stay indoors and safe at home. Businesses stayed closed, public transport operators kept their vehicles and drivers off the streets. And as a result of that, the response should be "Great, we avoided further widespread deaths and injuries by preparing for it and being ready", and people who don't want to respond that way should consider what might have been the alternative.

DOCARCH

@MJohnston. Great post. Thanks for taking the time to write down your thoughts.

HurlingBoy

100% the correct decision to issue a red warning. Certainly the majority of people stayed indoors and headed the warning. In my opinion a red warning should mean all schools, businesses, factories shut down. It seems for the private sector there was no real guideline and particularly on a weekend it may have been difficult for some employers contact there employee and many went to work but but were told to go home. Should legislation come into effect to remove the any ambiguity for private sector workers i.e Red Warning = Do Not Come to Work.

joujoujou

Sadly poll gives no option "they should've amended Red Alert regions" or the likes - I'd vote for.

Early forecasts showed highest dangers for S, W and NW later. Late forecasts showed them for S, SE and E. Correct me if I'm wrong.

The fact is, storm Doris (23 Feb 2017) made significantly more destruction in the region I waste my life in (SO/MO/RN).

Highest yesterday's wind gust = 88.2 km/h (mean = 75.7 km/h), Doris = 100 km/h (83 km/h) respectively.