Were Met E Correct to Extend the Red Warning Countrywide

Irish Steve

When all the analysis post event is done, there will be a number of factors about this hurricane that are determined to be "different", and many of them are unique, and have not been seen before. The manner of formation, the route, the evolution, all were mentioned at various times as not seen before. ME were drawing in experience from a number of sources that they would not normally have to rely on, because there was no modelling that could give them the depth of detail that they needed to give clarity to the people who depend on them for reliable information. In NHC terms, Ophelia was only just on their scale, most of the time, they are dealing with much more violent and dangerous systems that cover much wider areas, and do even more damage to infrastructure, and move in different ways.

ME had to call it with enough time for the other agencies to respond, and prepare, and on balance, it was the right call. We've seen a post earlier from one responder who was urging the central system to go Red for the whole country, we don't know how many other organisations were making the same call, clearly enough were that the decision was made. That's good enough for me, and there can be no doubt that it did save lives.

I've been in Ireland for nearly 30 years, I can't remember a similar call in that time, and yes, I know the system is relatively new, but in that 30 years, I don't recall weather of similar magnitude, or the national transport system closing down in the way it did on Monday. Once every couple of generations I can cope with.

Donegal Storm

kippy wrote: »

Where is this evidence presented before the event you are talking about that suggested Donegal would only experience "breezy" conditions?
Does the evidence presented since the event suggest that Donegal "only" had breezy conditions?

I followed the event since it was first flagged last Wednesday and posted updated charts multiple times every day, at no point in the reliable timeframe was the NW forecast to see anything more than a stiff breeze. In fact when the red warning was extended, the track was all but nailed on, travelling across Kerry to Connemara and up across Donegal, keeping conditions largely calm throughout.

Max sustained wind at Malin Head which is an exposed coastal headland with wind readings at 18 metres, was 68kph so it briefly touched gale force. Max gust was 104kph, something that will be repeated on a weekly basis in the coming months

Gaoth Laidir

Donegal Storm wrote: »

I followed the event since it was first flagged last Wednesday and posted updated charts multiple times every day, at no point in the reliable timeframe was the NW forecast to see anything more than a stiff breeze. In fact when the red warning was extended, the track was all but nailed on, travelling across Kerry to Connemara and up across Donegal, keeping conditions largely calm throughout.

Max sustained wind at Malin Head which is an exposed coastal headland with wind readings at 18 metres, was 68kph so it briefly touched gale force. Max gust was 104kph, something that will be repeated on a weekly basis in the coming months

Donegal Airport, right on the coast. Max gust 45 knots (83 kph) all day.
Sligo Airport, also right on the coast, 46 knots (85 kph).
Finner (near the coast) 54 knots (100 kph).

http://www.dawn-it.com/met/

METAR EIDL 161930Z AUTO 24030G45KT 8000 BKN010 OVC016 13/11 Q0984=
SPECI EISG 161531Z 13024G46KT 110V170 5000 -RA BKN015 OVC021 13/11 Q0972=

Kermit.de.frog

I would disagree about the widespread nature of the red warning.

But I think the whole management of the situation was actually superb by the emergency coordination group.

piuswal

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

I am open to persuasion on this topic as I'm not a qualified meteorologist nor a disaster relief planner.

I went with my gut on this one as I often do.
I thought Met E had been pressured into making a wrong decision.

My gut looks as though it was incorrect.

who do you think might have pressured ME into making a wrong decision?

piuswal

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The problem for the met was 'should they allow children go to school or people to work. They had to take - a whole day, whole evolving storm - view.

Met Eireann present the developing weather situation to the National Emergency Committee.
The Committee make the decisions as to what actions are then taken.
Met Eireann simply provide the best meteorological advise possible.

see

http://www.housing.gov.ie/local-government/fire-and-emergency-management/statement-national-emergency-coordination-group

for some insight as to how the system works

Gaoth Laidir

I'll just leave this here for reference.

DOCARCH

One thing the warning criteria for wind does not take account of is time of year.

I see above, for Ophelia, max. gust at Casement was 117kmh. For Darwin, max. gust at Casement was 122kmh (I think?).

In this/my part of Dublin Ophelia downed significantly more trees than Darwin did as trees are pretty much in full leaf (whereas Darwin occurred in February when the trees are bare). So, a lesser wind, depending on the time of year, can result in more risk/damage.

While trees falling are not the only risk to be considered, they are one of the more significant risks to life during any wind event (as we saw on Monday).

Maybe if Ophelia had occurred in January/February, Leinster may have just had an orange warning?

PukkaStukka

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

Matter of some debate in the main chat thread.

Some posters (including myself) believe Met E overstepped the mark by extending Fridays Red Warning Countrywide.

Many believe that Met E were correct & this decision saved many lives.

I've stuck up a poll to gauge the public support for this decision, feel free to contribute.

Also, I'm aware I'm posting this poll in the Lions Den so to speak as the prevailing opinion is in favour of Met E.
I am prepared to reconsider my position should the perceived prevailing opinion rule me incorrect.

3 people dead. Thousands without power, phone and water. Widespread storm damage to the tune of around € 800m.

And despite that, there are some who question whether going for the full national RED was the right thing to do?

For a start, I'd wager that full RED saved lives...

Roger_007

The use of the code RED warning should be very restricted because it is essential that people have confidence in the integrity of the warning system. If warnings are issued too frequently for events which turn out to be less severe than anticipated, then confidence will be lost and future warnings will be ignored. The 'boy-who-cried-wolf' effect will apply.
Instead of a country-wide code RED being issued for fixed times, it should be zoned, showing where conditions are likely to be more or less severe and at what times.
My own experience of Ophelia was that it was not an unusually severe storm in my area.
People should be given accurate information and then they can make informed decisions and they will have more confidence in the warnings that are issued in future.

George Sunsnow

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I'll just leave this here for reference.

An awful lot of the east coast from rosslare to Dublin (100's of km's) not covered there aswell as kerry to Galway with nothing at all on the Clare coast
All of these areas with serious gusts
The fairly new shed roof and mobile home I saw tossed yesterday (4 bay cattle shed) didn't have leaves to blame

So conceivably there were a lot of significant gusts possibly a lot faster than those stations ,totally unrecorded

FrancieBrady

Roger_007 wrote: »

The use of the code RED warning should be very restricted because it is essential that people have confidence in the integrity of the warning system. If warnings are issued too frequently for events which turn out to be less severe than anticipated, then confidence will be lost and future warnings will be ignored. The 'boy-who-cried-wolf' effect will apply.
Instead of a country-wide code RED being issued for fixed times, it should be zoned, showing where conditions are likely to be more or less severe and at what times.
My own experience of Ophelia was that it was not an unusually severe storm in my area.
People should be given accurate and then they can make informed decisions and they will have more confidence in the warnings that are issued in future.

How many times has a code RED for the entire country been used?
How many times have we been faced with a novel event like this in modern times?

Why would intelligent people lose confidence? The poll suggests that an overwhelming amount of people understand the position they were in.
A similar ratio, I would suggest, to those who choose to heed the warning and those who choose to go swimming in a red warning.

Hooks Golf Handicap

piuswal wrote: »

who do you think might have pressured ME into making a wrong decision?

There appeared to me to be a frenzy post Fridays warning.
We had 2 schools in Newbridge who were then Orange announce they would not be opening.
There seemed to be a "someone think of the children" race for the higher ground.
I can gaurantee you that politicians were getting hundreds of calls, texts & queries from people looking for certainity.
After LK/WD/WX got added it became a nonsense & they had to capitulate.

Met E had it 100% right but they bent over for the parish pump, that much is clear to me.

flaneur

Some people will just never be happy.

Met Éireann, given all the information they had and probably in consultation with other agencies called a status red warning.

I actually thought they were quite cautious about moving to a full red alert, and had initially held off until it became clear that this was definitely going to have very widespread impact. They have been proven to be absolutely correct on this. If you were lucky enough to have been in a sheltered area, you just don’t appreciate how bad this weather system was.

It may well have saved lives and it also gave emergency services less difficulties to deal with so they could concentrate on unavoidable emergencies as opposed to commuters getting caught out and needing rescuing.

The schools being off an extra 24 hours gave time for things to be cleared up. Having fewer cars on the roads on Tuesday for example meant that councils and the ESB could get on with emergency clean up.

Big weather events occasionally happen. They will disrupt your life. If your business is so badly upset by this kind of thing happening once in 60 years, I would strongly suggest you may need to look at your business model as it is clearly not robust enough to survive a 24h, once in a few decades disturbance.

Storms and major weather disruptions are part of living life on Planet Earth.
You have to accept that in the natural scheme of things, your daily routine doesn’t even feature. If a storm is going to blow, human activity is going to get blown away. Moaning about the weather forecasters and state bodies trying to prevent you getting killed or injured is just absolute nonsense.

It’s was a big storm. You suffered mild inconvenience if the status red didn’t cover the exact conditions at your house / office, but it did cover the general conditions in almost every part of Ireland.

I’m sorry if this is a bit rude but I get fed up with this kind of nasty, petty, moaning, high horse brigade stuff. A lot of people did a hell of a lot of work and pulled out all the stops to mitigate the impact of this event. So please just - get over it!

PukkaStukka

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

piuswal wrote: »

who do you think might have pressured ME into making a wrong decision?

There appeared to me to be a frenzy post Fridays warning.
We had 2 schools in Newbridge who were then Orange announce they would not be opening.
There seemed to be a "someone think of the children" race for the higher ground.
I can gaurantee you that politicians were getting hundreds of calls, texts & queries from people looking for certainity.
After LK/WD/WX got added it became a nonsense & they had to capitulate.

Met E had it 100% right but they bent over for the parish pump, that much is clear to me.

How ridiculous is that?

FrancieBrady

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

There appeared to me to be a frenzy post Fridays warning.
We had 2 schools in Newbridge who were then Orange announce they would not be opening.
There seemed to be a "someone think of the children" race for the higher ground.
I can gaurantee you that politicians were getting hundreds of calls, texts & queries from people looking for certainity.
After LK/WD/WX got added it became a nonsense & they had to capitulate.

Met E had it 100% right but they bent over for the parish pump, that much is clear to me.

If it is 'clear' to you that this was a parish pump decision you will be able to show us concrete evidence of it.
Otherwise it is just unfounded conspiracy theory guesswork tbh.

flaneur

The decision was taken based on weather information (science) and practical information from emergency services, ESB Networks, local government and other agencies’ risk assessment (facts).

The group making those decisions are looking at a bigger picture - minimizing the impact of a very nasty weather event, avoiding risk to life and property and doing all of that with finite resources in terms of personnel, time and equipment.

You can only get so much granularity. The system was moving rapidly and right up to the very end the models were only really able to predict roughly where it was going to hit. There was uncertainty as to whether it was going to head significantly westwards or whether there was a risk of sting jets and all sorts of other factors.

You’re also talking about a built environment and a population that is not very prepared for this kind of event in the way that somewhere like Florida or Texas might be. Roofing materials, signage, trees that do not cope well with strong winds, loose materials (natural and human) all over the place etc etc and people don’t have roller shutters or anything like that as these events are thankfully rare here.

On top of that you’ve a population that is not used to this kind of weather and may not be able to assess risks in the way someone in the Caribbean or southern Texas might be. That’s where you get someone blown off the road in a truck etc etc

The status red almost certainly dramatically reduced the number of people who were potentially at risk of being caught up in this.

NeonSquares

Fully support their decision.

kippy

flaneur wrote: »

Some people will just never be happy.

This is pretty much what it boils down to. They will never be happy and once they reach a conclusions there is no way to convince them otherwise.

Hammer Archer

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

There appeared to me to be a frenzy post Fridays warning.
We had 2 schools in Newbridge who were then Orange announce they would not be opening.
There seemed to be a "someone think of the children" race for the higher ground.
I can gaurantee you that politicians were getting hundreds of calls, texts & queries from people looking for certainity.
After LK/WD/WX got added it became a nonsense & they had to capitulate.

Met E had it 100% right but they bent over for the parish pump, that much is clear to me.

Can you explain why you feel a red warning for the initial counties would have been sufficient given that 2 of the 3 deaths occurred in initial orange warning areas?

It's all well and good using the exact scientific limits for warnings in theory, but you're not the one that's dealing with people's lives when you're issuing these warnings. I'm sure MÉ considered the forecasted wind strengths but they also had to weigh up other factors that would definitely have increased the impact of the storm.
As mentioned, trees still have most of their leaves which definitely caused more of them to be brought down than if Ophelia hit during the middle of January. Also, the time that the peak winds were due to hit I think definitely affected MÉ's decision. The storm hit at rush hour around Cork and was due to hit the greater Dublin area in or around the school rush meaning tens of thousands of cars/busses packed with children on the roads with the very real danger of hundreds of falling trees.
Had the storm been due to hit 12 hours earlier, chances are the initial red warnings would have been sufficient given that the worst winds would have hit the majority of the country in the dead of night when the amount of people outside would have been minimal.

I think Met Éireann played a blinder during all of this. The first advisory was mentioned on Thursday (IIRC) while stating that it was something to keep an eye on further into the weekend. The initial red warning was issued early on Saturday. It was extended the following day, initially to Waterford, Wexford and Limerick shortly before extending it to the entire country. Unless you were living under a rock, you knew about the incoming storm.

When you take the weather event as a whole, I feel the nationwide red warning was 100% justified. Even though the max sustained winds/gusts did not meet the exact criteria in certain counties, seeing the sheer number of trees down in highly populated areas (not to mention the three tragic deaths), I don't think anyone can seriously try to claim that there wouldn't have been more fatalities had everyone gone about their daily business as normal on Monday.

Drumpot

kippy wrote: »

This is pretty much what it boils down to. They will never be happy and once they reach a conclusions there is no way to convince them otherwise.

I think its important to discuss the decisions made and try and see what could be done better in future so that we learn from this situation.... I feel the correct decision was made under the circumstances, but I do feel that part of the reason the red warning had to be issued by our meteorological services was because there was no other organised way of communicating it.

When it became clear that this could be a nationwide issue, I feel that we should of had some sort of emergency group take over. It seems ridiculous that meteorologists are being tasked with warning people and communicating the dangers of the storm. Should we not have a specific emergency response take over to prevent ridiculous arguments on the technical inaccuracy of red warning from a weather perspective?

Heres a question, where should I go for shelter if a really bad storm is coming ? Where will emergency services be based in event of a tragedy (storm, flood, some godly event that causes havoc)? What do i do if electricity goes out for weeks? How do I communicate or get messages from government ? There is no coordinated information available and no foresight. I don't even know how to turn off my gas . . Why don't we educate people with even a basic surivival guidance/plan?

In terms of people stating that the wrong call was made, my instinct is to ignore them or tell them to shut up. But this is the wrong response. I do feel people stating that things could of been handled better should be engaged and their views discussed/respected. But I also think they need to understand that when millions of people are relying on your advice and response, its a more difficult decision to make then coming on the internet and making a call that affects just you. Given the fact this was an unprecedented storm, I don't see how anybody could be so angry with the safe call.

This kind of discussion can go one of two ways. The normal Joe show horsesh*t where people just argue the same points to "win" the argument or where we have an informed, respectable discussion acknowledging all views and trying to actually learn something from the experience.

Gaoth Laidir

Hammer Archer wrote: »

When you take the weather event as a whole, I feel the nationwide red warning was 100% justified. Even though the max sustained winds/gusts did not meet the exact criteria in certain counties, seeing the sheer number of trees down in highly populated areas (not to mention the three tragic deaths), I don't think anyone can seriously try to claim that there wouldn't have been more fatalities had everyone gone about their daily business as normal on Monday.

Certain counties? It was actually in about 29 of the 32 counties, give or take. That's around 90% of the country that was not red, many just barely orange and some yellow. A lot of the damage in these counties was due to limbs of trees, not actual trees, coming down. One downed limb on an ESB cable can take out thousands of homes. The major damage to structures that I've seen all occurred in the initial red alert areas, especially Cork.

I note that nobody has been able to give a reason why the two major airports remained open, meaning that these employees and passengers were out in the "worst" of it.

George Sunsnow

There’s a lot of pedantry on this thread regarding the red warning

DOCARCH

George Sunsnow wrote: »

There’s a lot of pedantry on this thread regarding the red warning

Agreed, and no matter what people say, hindsight.

Gaoth Laidir

George Sunsnow wrote: »

An awful lot of the east coast from rosslare to Dublin (100's of km's) not covered

100s of km? It's about 130 km.

It seems exaggeration and disregard for facts has become the norm in this thread.

George Sunsnow

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

100s of km? It's about 130 km.

It seems exaggeration and disregard for facts has become the norm in this thread.

As I was saying pedantry...

Gaoth Laidir

George Sunsnow wrote: »

As I was saying pedantry...

As a matter of interest, what was your max gust?

DOCARCH

On Sunday morning the advisory issued by the NHC (in Miami)....the hurricane experts....was:

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

---

WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to completion by this afternoon.

The above would have been considered by the National Emergency Coordination Group, and they also consulted directly with the NHC and UKMO.

Given the above, I would say the deliberation did not take long to make the decision to issue a countrywide red warning!

Also bear in mind that they did not have the benefit of hindsight!!!

We have lots of storms every year and every few years a severe one....Met Eireann are well used to those. Met Eireann are not used to approaching hurricanes (albeit by Sunday morning a weakening one)!

George Sunsnow

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

As a matter of interest, what was your max gust?

Can’t answer that as the weather station blew down

Regarding my previous comment on 100’s of km’s
Despite where I placed the brackets the distance between Tralee and Galway with Dublin to Rosslare by road is. 350kms combined

Gl I’ve absolutely no interest in what I regard as this kind of pedantry and am saying so
The shed roof,mobile home and car in ravensdale were all not in the previous red areas,one killed a man and the others could easily have killed people

The sooner people get it,that things were serious and definitively so in terms of being a threat to life,the safer we all are next time

I’ve the height of respect for your input by the way

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

On Sunday morning the advisory issued by the NHC (in Miami)....the hurricane experts....was:

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

---

WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to completion by this afternoon.

The above would have been considered by the National Emergency Coordination Group, and they also consulted directly with the NHC and UKMO.

Given the above, I would say the deliberation did not take long to make the decision to issue a countrywide red warning!

Also bear in mind that they did not have the benefit of hindsight!!!

We have lots of storms every year and every few years a severe one....Met Eireann are well used to those. Met Eireann are not used to approaching hurricanes (albeit by Sunday morning a weakening one)!

What I will add to the above....

Some of the models (it turns out) handled the actual outcome really well, but again, that's hindsight!

Met Eireann often get criticised (in here) for over reliance on models!

I think Met Eireann definitely made the right call.