Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

GhostyMcGhost

Malayalam wrote: »

Explosive Cyclogenesis!

Had that after a night out before. Wouldn’t wish it on my worst enemy

Lapse

Would flights be cancelled in a status orange alert??

pjohnson

kilns wrote: »

So what are the thoughts of everyone here, is this storm gradually getting worse and when it hits on Friday and Saturday it could be another big one?

It seems we are screwed

sjb25

Malayalam wrote: »

Explosive Cyclogenesis!

Sounds like something you'd get after a feed of beer and curry

chris2007

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Galway and Mayo

Northwest winds will reach mean speeds 65-80 km/h with gusts 110-130 km/h in coastal parts of Connacht with the risk of coastal flooding, as storm Brian tracks Eastwards across central and Southern parts of Ireland.
Issued:
Thursday 19 October 2017 13:39
Valid:
Saturday 21 October 2017 06:00 to Saturday 21 October 2017 18:00


STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Wexford, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

West to Southwest winds veering Northwest will reach mean speeds of 65-80 km/h with gusts 110-130 km/h in coastal parts of Munster and coastal parts of Wexford with the risk of coastal flooding, as storm Brian tracks Eastwards across central and Southern parts of Ireland.
Issued:
Thursday 19 October 2017 13:37
Valid:
Saturday 21 October 2017 00:01 to Saturday 21 October 2017 12:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland

West to Southwest winds in Southern parts becoming Northwest generally countrywide will reach mean speeds up to 65 km/h with gusts up to 110 km/h at times. (potentially higher for a period in coastal parts of the South and West, see orange warning for details)
Issued:
Thursday 19 October 2017 09:00
Valid:
Friday 20 October 2017 22:00 to Saturday 21 October 2017 22:00

Larbre34

Lapse wrote: »

Would flights be cancelled in a status orange alert??

Depends on the wind dynamics and the capability of the airport. I heard plenty of aircraft on Monday afternoon and evening out of Dublin Airport during Ophelia. I wouldnt fancy it myself, but they'll fly if at all possible.

pjohnson

This thing has my nerves in bits

Larbre34

sjb25 wrote: »

Sounds like something you'd get after a feed of beer and curry

That's a bomb of a different kind.

km79

Oh fk
This is nit good is it

Pintman Paddy Losty

km79 wrote: »

Oh fk
This is nit good is it

People here seem to be getting hyped up and excited anyway.

Colser

Just started howling wind here near Cork City.

redsteveireland

I've seen snow drag down the forum but now a bit of wind and rain, Ophelia frenzy really has some people loosing the run(no pun intended) of themselves.

Storm 10

Should boards not go orange as well

GhostyMcGhost

Colser wrote: »

Just started howling wind here near Cork City.

It’s not Brian.
When he howls you’ll know

Lapse

Larbre34 wrote: »

Depends on the wind dynamics and the capability of the airport. I heard plenty of aircraft on Monday afternoon and evening out of Dublin Airport during Ophelia. I wouldnt fancy it myself, but they'll fly if at all possible.

OK thanks for that.

spookwoman

Storm Brian

giveitholly

Will there be much rainfall from this system

gozunda

Storm 10 wrote: »

ME gone Amber warning now

ME - Met Eireann?

Afaik it's our cousins in the North / England / Scotland / Wales that use 'Amber where we use 'Orange'

Obviously no 'Orange' warning North of the border as that could have political connotations.... ; )

gozunda

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Wexford, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

West to Southwest winds veering Northwest will reach mean speeds of 65-80 km/h with gusts 110-130 km/h in coastal parts of Munster and coastal parts of Wexford with the risk of coastal flooding, as storm Brian tracks Eastwards across central and Southern parts of Ireland.
Issued:
Thursday 19 October 2017 13:37
Valid:
Saturday 21 October 2017 00:01 to Saturday 21 October 2017 12:00

I noticed once again that ME have omitted Co limerick from the Orange Alert despite being squarely sandwiched between Cork, Kerry & Clare

It's not like weather systems can decide arbitrarily to tiptoe around and not effect any of the county whatsoever ...

In Storm Darwin Co Limerick was omitted from the Red Alert - Only to be included at the last minute whilst the storm was raging. My postman narrowly avoided bring killed at the height of this storm as he made a call on the forecast given

Ditto Orphelia- Co Limerick was only upgraded shortly before the entire country went to Red

I'm getting a bit tired of looking at the forecast and having to second guess and having to ignore forecasts due to the narrow delimitation by rather arbitary county borders ...

JCX BXC

The wind doesn't meet the criteria basically, Limerick is not coastal (I don't count the river Shannon as coastal), and coast will get the worst winds. Notice Tipperary is also omitted?

ninebeanrows

Unless there are sig changes in the 12z suite this will not be more than a wet and windy event. The storm has occluded and matured by the time it reaches Ireland - windy , especially in the S and later blustery in most areas as winds veer W to NW. But there is no threat of intense inland winds going on latest guidance.

MJohnston

Yeah, people have this mental picture of Limerick as a coastal county, but it's basically as far inland as Roscommon!

gozunda

JCX BXC wrote: »

The wind doesn't meet the criteria basically, Limerick is not coastal (I don't count the river Shannon as coastal), and coast will get the worst winds. Notice Tipperary is also omitted?

MJohnston wrote: »

Yeah, people have this mental picture of Limerick as a coastal county, but it's basically as far inland as Roscommon!

Hilarious ... yes I've seen that one trotted out before - but yes Co Limerick is a coastal county. (Look at the map of Ireland for reference). There is approx 100 km of coast and it remains geographically sandwiched between North Co Cork / Kerry and Co Clare.

Here are some pictures of parts of the Limerick coastline in good weather

http://www.irelandinpicture.net/2015/02/limerick-coastline-foynes.html?m=1

The west of the county is very flat and the shannon estuary provides an open conduit for weather systems coming in from the Atlantic. Limerick city suffers from tidal flooding and is at high risk during wind events and high tides.

It remains County Limerick is set square in the middle of the listed counties. (Tipperary generally benefits from a more easterly location)

It doesn't help that the West of the county bordering on North Cork has a major mountain range that tends to exacerbate storm conditions

As said it's not like weather systems can pick up their skirts and dance around the coast between Kerry and Clare just because ...

As for the proof? Recent storm warnings have all been latterly upgraded to include County Limerick way too late...

JCX BXC

Now look at how far Clare, Galway and Kerry jut out as a comparison? Often in rainfall warnings Clare is omitted with Kerry and Galway included, and occasionally the same in wind warnings. Why? Because even Clare doesn't jut out as far as Kerry and Galway, and they are also much more mountainous. Limerick is a flat, inland county (not that near the mouth of the Shannon).

gozunda

JCX BXC wrote: »

Now look at how far Clare, Galway and Kerry jut out as a comparison? Often in rainfall warnings Clare is omitted with Kerry and Galway included, and occasionally the same in wind warnings. Why? Because even Clare doesn't jut out as far as Kerry and Galway, and they are also much more mountainous. Limerick is a flat, inland county (not that near the mouth of the Shannon).

I presume you don't visit the county too often?

But yes the east of the county is flat - absolutely no protection from westerly weather systems. It does not matter who sticks out where. The fact remains Co Limerick is geographically within the region that is frequently affected by Atlantic storm systems. The Shannon acts as conduit for bad weather in my experience.

The west of the county is far from flat- with a major mountain range that makes for some interesting weather

Though for some bizarre reason the county only gets the relevant warning from ME during or after the fact - how the heck does that make sense?

Nettle Soup

I don't really buy that trees are more likely to fall during storm Brian because the ground is saturated after recent rain.
I don't have the data to back it up but I felt August and September were wetter than previous years. The local Galway lakes and rivers were higher in September than I normally expect (I fish a lot). The ground was already saturated before Ophelia. Also Ophelia brought down a lot of leaves which means the trees have much less "sail effect" for future storms.
And finally we got a lot of winter storms in the past few years so I expect a lot of the weaker trees have fallen already especially after Ophelia.

pilly

gozunda wrote:

Though for some bizarre reason the county only gets the relevant warning from ME during or after the fact - how the heck does that make sense?

Totally agree. Limerick badly hit by Darwin and Ophelia.

Mr_A

gozunda wrote: »

Obviously no 'Orange' warning North of the border as that could have political connotations.... ; )

Yeah, and it would begin every year in April and go all the way through to the end of summer!

JCX BXC

gozunda wrote: »

Though for some bizarre reason the county only gets the relevant warning from ME during or after the fact - how the heck does that make sense?

Any other examples other than Darwin? Which Clare may I add was also omitted, and was destroyed.

Again, I point out that Clare is coastal, and you will almost certainly see stronger winds in locations like Kilbaha, Kilkee, Ennistymon, Lahinch etc than you would in Newcastle West, Limerick City or Rathkeale etc.

The way the system seems to work is that if a part of a county warrants a warning, all the county will be in the warning. I'd imagine Ennis/Killaloe would have conditions more similar to Limerick and Tipperary than the coastal fringes of Clare.

gozunda

JCX BXC wrote: »

Any other examples other than Darwin? Which Clare may I add was also omitted, and was destroyed.

Again, I point out that Clare is coastal, and you will almost certainly see stronger winds in locations like Kilbaha, Kilkee, Ennistymon, Lahinch etc than you would in Newcastle West, Limerick City or Rathkeale etc.

The way the system seems to work is that if a part of a county warrants a warning, all the county will be in the warning. I'd imagine Ennis/Killaloe would have conditions more similar to Limerick and Tipperary than the coastal fringes of Clare.

I have already gave detail on that - yes it was omitted during Darwin, Orphelia and only upgraded to Red shortly before the entire county was

If you wish to put the case forward for Co Clare - please do so - however it remains that as a county - Limerick is geographicaly sandwiched between Cork Kerry and Clare the county regularly experiences severe weather systems due to its location in the South West. That is a fact evidenced by warnings only latterly applied despite evident misconceptions / imaginings about what the weather may be like compared to other random spots on the map ...