Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

Storm 10

So the warnings may be upgraded for this storm according to ME on the forecast after the news

jumpjack

why is this possible storm named "Brian"? Hurricanes names follow alphabetical order, so it should have a name starting by P.

fraxinus1

pauldry wrote: »

Looks bad on latest run in same places as Ophelia but not as strong

120kph likely in many places on coastal south.

A very late developing storm which is Hugely Dangerous

E.g people might look at charts Thursday n see f all and carry on Friday n Friday night

120kmph gusts is stronger than the vast majority of Ireland, including the south, witnessed during Ophelia.

JCX BXC

jumpjack wrote: »

why is this possible storm named "Brian"? Hurricanes names follow alphabetical order, so it should have a name starting by P.

Because Ophelia wasn't named by ME/UKMO.

There's only been one named storm (by ME/UKMO) and that was Aileen, the next one will be named Brian, and then C, D, etc.

pjohnson

fraxinus1 wrote: »

120kmph gusts is stronger than the vast majority of Ireland, including the south, witnessed during Ophelia.

So this will be worse?

JCX BXC

pjohnson wrote: »

So this will be worse?

Go up 5 posts and you have your answer!

sdanseo

ICON (which was the most pessimistic with Ophelia) max gusts accumulated to Saturday night.

Shows gusts of up to 150km/h in fringes of Kerry and portions of Wales.

This would give red warnings in several counties in a worst case scenario. There are more caveats with this than there are pixels, please don't freak out.

nagdefy

ECM looks similar enough to the GFS. I find it harder to really see the stregth of it's projection with the 24 hour jump in frames.

On the GFS the strongest winds are to the south of the country but if the system projections nudge as far north as they have in the last 24 hours it'll be a serious storm. Again all we can do is monitor it.

As it is 120km gusts on weakened trees will have the effect of stronger gusts. Added to that is the amount of rainfall coming tomorrow.

Meteorite58

The ARPEGE keeping the center further S than the WRF, GFS , GEM, ECM and ICON at the moment. IMO the ARPEGE probably shows close to the average wind speeds . Conditions for thundery rain also on Sat, so some big squally showers and will be watching for straight line winds as upper troughs pass down over the country introducing cold mid and upper temperatures and showing sufficient lapse rates and cape over the sea to produce some sparks overland perhaps.

Will be interesting to see when the models align if they do. At the moment expecting stronger winds on Sat morning and afternoon than were experienced on the 16th here in North Kerry. Close to an Orange Warning for Kerry I would think and possibly another couple of counties. We will see in the next few runs.




Mean





Gust




ECMWF 12Z 850 hPa ( just rolling out )

pjohnson

JCX BXC wrote: »

Go up 5 posts and you have your answer!

Sorry. I thought newer posts signify updated information.

__..__

are the times on those maps irish time?

Are flights expected to get cancelled in Dublin on Friday?

JCX BXC

Looks like 120km/h gusts from the North West at my location by that chart! I'd have concerns for some trees that have been weakened by Ophelia. If those charts are accurate then we will have Storm Brian.

froog

so in comparison to ophelia, looking at an average from the various models, what are we talking here? about the same, worse or not as bad?

sdanseo

Storm 10 wrote: »

So the warnings may be upgraded for this storm according to ME on the forecast after the news

I love the way Gerry at around 1:30 sums up the weekend as "unsettled in general" with a low of 949mb behind his head :rolleyes:

(won't be that low if and when it gets to us - and that's next week's problem)

__..__ wrote: »

are the times on those maps irish time?

Yes

__..__ wrote: »

Are flights expected to get cancelled in Dublin on Friday?

No. Maybe in Kerry.

JCX BXC

__..__ wrote: »

are the times on those maps irish time?

Are flights expected to get cancelled in Dublin on Friday?

Friday? No!

As I've said already, no need to panic, we often get similar wind. Saturday is the main wind event and even then I see minimal disruption, however we can never truly be sure until TAF's are issued.

goat2

sdanseo wrote: »

ICON (which was the most pessimistic with Ophelia) max gusts accumulated to Saturday night.

Shows gusts of up to 150km/h in fringes of Kerry and portions of Wales.

This would give red warnings in several counties in a worst case scenario. There are more caveats with this than there are pixels, please don't freak out.

Not again, and I have to work Friday evening, hoping for a bit of calm, but this,

Autochange

froog wrote: »

so in comparison to ophelia, looking at an average from the various models, what are we talking here? about the same, worse or not as bad?

Its in the projected images above. Same page.

sdanseo

I wonder if Danny Healy-Rae will believe in global warming if Kerry gets battered twice in a week?

goat2

if the eye stays on the course the above graphs are showing, Kerry are in for a hard hit

Akrasia

Even if the wind gusts don't match the peak Ophelia speeds, this could feel more dramatic if its accompanied by driving rain and thunder.
Tomorrow is going to be very wet which could lead to an increased risk if flooding on Friday and Saturday

MJohnston

For the experts here - any clues as to why a system like Ophelia's gusts didn't penetrate far inland on model forecasts, while Hypothetical-Brian looks to be hitting much further inland with stronger gusts? Is it purely a matter of the speed of the system moving west-east rather than south-north as Ophelia did?

sillysocks

If things stay as expected now would you expect to see warnings re 'unnecessary journeys' and driving in the conditions or would it need to be worse for people to be told to avoid travel?

MJohnston

sillysocks wrote: »

If things stay as expected now would you expect to see warnings re 'unnecessary journeys' and driving in the conditions or would it need to be worse for people to be told to avoid travel?

It's going to be a really difficult one for ME to call tbh. Purely on forecast models, there's no real reason to go further than Orange level in more than a handful of counties.

But there's got to be real consideration paid to the fact that Ophelia will have done some invisible damage that this storm could compound.

Meteorite58

I think I will leave up the fence supports here in Kerry until after the weekend

JanuarySnowstor

I personally don't particularly buy the argument that after a severe storm trees are weakened.
You could also use the argument that so many trees have fallen that not many more can so less damage!?

Back to the here and now this next storm is certainly an orange warning for the southwest

Lackey

sillysocks wrote: »

If things stay as expected now would you expect to see warnings re 'unnecessary journeys' and driving in the conditions or would it need to be worse for people to be told to avoid travel?

There are some brilliant people here who do a great job of predicting the weather.....
After driving for four hours across the country today and seeing the damage caused by last week....trees and poles leaning precariously over the roads I would be watching this thread before making any travel plans.

MJohnston

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I personally don't particularly buy the argument that after a severe storm trees are weakened.
You could also use the argument that so many trees have fallen that not many more can so less damage!?

Back to the here and now this next storm is certainly an orange warning for the southwest

Well, the weakened trees argument is also about the fact that the wind direction could be different, so trees that were resilient for one direction are now more susceptible for a different direction.

However, there's also this heavy rainfall we're due to have tomorrow - Ophelia occurred after a relatively dry period in a lot of the country, but the soil is going to be very saturated when this new storm rolls through, and that can cause a weaker root foundation.

gozunda

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I personally don't particularly buy the argument that after a severe storm trees are weakened.
You could also use the argument that so many trees have fallen that not many more can so less damage!?

Back to the here and now this next storm is certainly an orange warning for the southwest

Well Orphelia managed to loosen / weaken two shed roofs here - didn't lose them but without immediate DIY- the next significant wind event would have taken them out for sure.

The problem with trees is that storm damage is variable depending on a number of contributing factors. In storm Darwin many trees were at risk as soils were super-saturated due to weeks of high rainfall prior to the event. In Orphelia many trees were still in full leaf - increasing the surface area to the winds force. What is called the 'sail' effect. These contributing factors increase the chance of a tree being weakened and coming down in the next big wind event

But yes IME (horticulturist) trees and especially older trees may suffer progressive damage from one wind event to the next. Where a tree loses one or more limbs - they often become unbalanced especially where remedial work is not carried out to rebalance the tree. Changes in wind direction from one strong wind event to another may also push trees over.

It may not take much to topple a weakened tree. Though I always think it is sad to see venerable old trees succumb when many have survived decades of previous bad weather and storms.

MIKEKC

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I personally don't particularly buy the argument that after a severe storm trees are weakened.
You could also use the argument that so many trees have fallen that not many more can so less damage!?

Back to the here and now this next storm is certainly an orange warning for the southwest

Yesterday morning a big tree fell here, I presume it weakened during storm

Gaoth Laidir

jumpjack wrote: »

why is this possible storm named "Brian"? Hurricanes names follow alphabetical order, so it should have a name starting by P.

It was never a named tropical system.