Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

hatrickpatrick

Didn't want to post this in either of the Ophelia threads given how serious the situation is and the need to focus on current conditions, but the ECM has picked up on a currently developing tropical cyclone off the US coast, currently designated as Invest 92-L, which it develops into a system with hurricane force winds and then takes straight into Ireland:





Animated loop of the ECM from 48H onwards:





What do people make of this? This is more of a "classic" post tropical storm in that it will traverse the Atlantic from the American coast, around the circulation of the Azores high and then approach us - assuming it does develop, which is not yet a given, what kinds of impacts do people see from this?

Creative83

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.8;1.3;5&l=gust&t=20171020/21

This looks like another storm similar to todays... :eek:

sdanseo

Funny how 50 kt was halfway mark on the scale yesterday, now it's at the top.
Scary to think we'd get two in a week. There is surely no way a post-tropical transiting the North Atlantic could come anywhere near what we've just experienced.

Akrasia

sdanseo wrote: »

Funny how 50 kt was halfway mark on the scale yesterday, now it's at the top.
Scary to think we'd get two in a week. There is surely no way a post-tropical transiting the North Atlantic could come anywhere near what we've just experienced.

The water temperatures are significantly above average which could allow it to keep much of its strength as it crosses the atlantic

munsterlegend

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Didn't want to post this in either of the Ophelia threads given how serious the situation is and the need to focus on current conditions, but the ECM has picked up on a currently developing tropical cyclone off the US coast, currently designated as Invest 92-L, which it develops into a system with hurricane force winds and then takes straight into Ireland:





Animated loop of the ECM from 48H onwards:





What do people make of this? This is more of a "classic" post tropical storm in that it will traverse the Atlantic from the American coast, around the circulation of the Azores high and then approach us - assuming it does develop, which is not yet a given, what kinds of impacts do people see from this?

Surely can't be that unlucky again! Usually these storms miss us to the north west?

sdanseo

Ah here leave it out.

+120hrs

ECM


GFS


WRF


NAVGEM

pjohnson

sdanseo wrote: »

Ah here leave it out.

+120hrs

ECM


GFS


WRF


NAVGEM

Oh. Is it a certainty to hit?

Mod Edit

jArgHA

pjohnson wrote: »

Fuck. Is it a certainty to hit?

No

pjohnson

jArgHA wrote: »

No

Thank god. I'm a weather idiot so find these graphs hard to follow. Appreciate the help.

hatrickpatrick

pjohnson wrote: »

Fuck. Is it a certainty to hit?

This far out, absolutely not. It's not even a certainty to develop a closed circulation before the wind shear rips it apart - NHC give it a 40% chance. One to watch, but not one to panic about just yet.

Akrasia

Those models show it zipping across the atlantic at ludicrous speed

Must be averaging 30kts the whole way

sdanseo

No such thing as a certainty with the weather. There was a 180km/h wind indication 24hrs ago for where I am - honestly I'd be surprised if we got 120.

The fact that there's consensus between a few different models shows "something is up". Not possible to be any more definitive than that 120hrs out.

tayto lover

Ah feck.
Back into the bunker.

RobbingBandit

Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in.

pjohnson

For goodness sake. Thats the family holiday done then.

Mod Edit:

Monkeynut

pjohnson wrote: »

Fuck. Is it a certainty to hit?

Most definitely it will hit, somewhere, where eh who knows.

the weather can change at any given time.

Pwindedd

Okay I'm going entirely from memory now but in the great storm ( I was in SE england 87') I'm sure i remember about a few days or week later we got another storm - first one was at night and massive power cuts etc, but second one was during day and we were all in school when the windows started smashing and we were sent home. I'm merely suggesting that when the conditions are right maybe these conditions repeat themselves for a short while - like a mini-season over a week or so

Akrasia

Monkeynut wrote: »

Most definitely it will hit, somewhere, where eh who knows.

the weather can change at any given time.

It hasn't formed yet, its more likely to dissipate and get swallowed up by another weather system

Chris_5339762

Thats interesting that they are predicting a second, almost identical looking storm. But the funny thing is they progress completely differently across the Atlantic.

These ones usually (in my experience) head a bit further north with each model run and I think I would prefer that than the current runs.

allthedoyles

yr.no have us down for heavy rain Friday evening / Saturday morning in the SE.
Supposed to bit breezy too , but hopefully not gale.

Snowc

pjohnson wrote: »

For fuck sake. Thats the family holiday done then.

Too far out yet to know but travel buses should still be running so you should be ok for your day trip .

JCX BXC

Snowc wrote: »

Too far out yet to know but travel buses should still be running so you should be ok for your day trip .

If it's too far out to know, how do you know buses should be running? What winds are expected if it goes to forecast?

sryanbruen

Going by the current synoptics, I'd say something along the lines of 50-60mph but not ruling out 70mph. It could all change as posters have highlighted however.

Donegal Storm

Pretty good consensus across the models that it will form and will head towards us, no real agreement on track and intensity though

Already in view on the hi res Arpege model which did a pretty good job of todays event, not as strong and well to the south but it'll be worth a watch over the next few days

pad199207

sdanseo wrote: »

Ah here leave it out.

+120hrs

ECM


GFS


WRF


NAVGEM

Are ya havin a giraffe?

sryanbruen

Snowc wrote: »

Wow a lot of anger in your post just looking at what the charts are showing now, of course I don't know what it will be like in 5 days.Maybe go out and get some fresh air from Ophelia

Fresh air from Ophelia? :eek: you're crazy.

Anyway, getting off topic here.

pjohnson

Snowc wrote: »

Too far out yet to know but travel buses should still be running so you should be ok for your day trip .

Maybe my first impressions of this forum being helpful was mistaken. A few more AH style posters.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

Going by the current synoptics, I'd say something along the lines of 50-60mph but not ruling out 70mph. It could all change as posters have highlighted however.

Although, with this from Windy.com and the ECMWF, I'd expect stronger winds than what I said above:

sryanbruen

pjohnson wrote: »

Maybe my first impressions of this forum being helpful was mistaken.

What?

Storm 10

Joanna after the news she went as far as Wednesday then said "We will leave the rest for another day" sounds like she knows something

Snowc

sryanbruen wrote: »

Although, with this from Windy.com and the ECMWF, I'd expect stronger winds than what I said above:

[IMGimg[/IMG]

I keep getting an error when I try to load windy today.What web browser are you using ?

Mental Mickey

Another one on the way....??? Phook.

sryanbruen

Snowc wrote: »

I keep getting an error when I try to load windy today.What web browser are you using ?

Safari but that was on an iPad.

I tried windy.com here on my PC. I'm using Google Chrome and it works fine for me.

JCX BXC

Snowc wrote: »

Wow a lot of anger in your post ,just looking at what the charts are showing now, of course I don't know what it will be like in 5 days.Maybe go out and get some fresh air from Ophelia

I'm not in any way angry, however there's not much point in telling someone buses are okay when your original point says you've no idea yet!

No anger intended.

Elmer Blooker

It would wise to keep an eye on the tides as there is a new moon towards the weekend.

Samaris

Doubt there's much point even thinking about this storm system for another couple of days. Something might come of it, but it's less than 50:50 at the moment, and even if it does and -if- it comes at us, there'll be no predicting its track with any accuracy for a while yet.

Akrasia

This is Fantasy Island territory here guys. If the system is still viable this time tomorrow, we might have something to work with.

JCX BXC

Large chance of this doing anything that will cause it to miss Ireland, however I'd like to point out that Ophelia was flagged from this many days out!

Hopefully Ophelia will have caused any damage that was possible, and even if this storm arrives damage will be minimal. Joanna may be getting overtime again soon though!

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

Large chance of this doing anything that will cause it to miss Ireland, however I'd like to point out that Ophelia was flagged from this many days out!

Hopefully Ophelia will have caused any damage that was possible, and even if this storm arrives damage will be minimal. Joanna may be getting overtime again soon though!

Yep, I was about to say that. I had huge doubts in Ophelia and said for it to be typical Autumn weather but I was wrong.

Samaris

Actually, if you are on the site on that image at the top and you hover over the marker, it does comment "Conditions are expected to become unfavourable for further development by Wednesday, when the disturbance merges with a frontal system over the western Atlantic".

Mind you, met.ie at 5days out is showing a storm.

Meteorite58

pjohnson wrote: »

Maybe my first impressions of this forum being helpful was mistaken. A few more AH style posters.

Mod Note: Warning for being uncivil.

dsmythy

Hasn't even thought about forming as a tropical system never mind anything else. Belongs in fantasy island thread for now.

Snowc

pjohnson wrote: »

Maybe my first impressions of this forum being helpful was mistaken. A few more AH style posters.

It is still five days out so too early to know for definite yet but odds are that buses will be running .Not sure what the rest of your post means but keep an eye on this thread for more info .

speedy00

so what day roughly?

sryanbruen

speedy00 wrote: »

so what day roughly?

Saturday.

Xenji

Joanna alluded to something at the weekend again.

mirrorwall14

Xenji wrote: »

Joanna alluded to something at the weekend again.

Yeah I noticed. Very obvious

Storm 10

Xenji wrote: »

Joanna alluded to something at the weekend again.

Looks like she dont want to add any more bad news after today, no doubt we will hear soon enough

nc6000

Here's how Joanna signed off the forecast after the Nine O'Clock News.

"That's it for now, we'll worry about the rest of the weekend after we get through this."

Mental Mickey

Another one coming next weekend?

JCX BXC

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Another one coming next weekend?

Actually, this thread is a secret thread by the pear loving association of Ireland. (PLAI)



Joking, yes there is, but confidence is low