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Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

  • 16-10-2017 5:27pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    Didn't want to post this in either of the Ophelia threads given how serious the situation is and the need to focus on current conditions, but the ECM has picked up on a currently developing tropical cyclone off the US coast, currently designated as Invest 92-L, which it develops into a system with hurricane force winds and then takes straight into Ireland:



    v6vxzvT.png

    Animated loop of the ECM from 48H onwards:

    xVn5Ys5.gif



    What do people make of this? This is more of a "classic" post tropical storm in that it will traverse the Atlantic from the American coast, around the circulation of the Azores high and then approach us - assuming it does develop, which is not yet a given, what kinds of impacts do people see from this?


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 353 ✭✭ Creative83


    https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.8;1.3;5&l=gust&t=20171020/21

    This looks like another storm similar to todays... :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    Funny how 50 kt was halfway mark on the scale yesterday, now it's at the top.
    Scary to think we'd get two in a week. There is surely no way a post-tropical transiting the North Atlantic could come anywhere near what we've just experienced.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,142 ✭✭✭✭ Akrasia


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Funny how 50 kt was halfway mark on the scale yesterday, now it's at the top.
    Scary to think we'd get two in a week. There is surely no way a post-tropical transiting the North Atlantic could come anywhere near what we've just experienced.

    The water temperatures are significantly above average which could allow it to keep much of its strength as it crosses the atlantic

    anomw.10.12.2017.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    Didn't want to post this in either of the Ophelia threads given how serious the situation is and the need to focus on current conditions, but the ECM has picked up on a currently developing tropical cyclone off the US coast, currently designated as Invest 92-L, which it develops into a system with hurricane force winds and then takes straight into Ireland:



    v6vxzvT.png

    Animated loop of the ECM from 48H onwards:

    xVn5Ys5.gif



    What do people make of this? This is more of a "classic" post tropical storm in that it will traverse the Atlantic from the American coast, around the circulation of the Azores high and then approach us - assuming it does develop, which is not yet a given, what kinds of impacts do people see from this?

    Surely can't be that unlucky again! Usually these storms miss us to the north west?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    Ah here leave it out.

    +120hrs

    ECM
    ECU1-120.GIF

    GFS
    01a5f73d8f74f7c22c474dfbb0a2a822.png

    WRF
    1fb8cd5830ef7edb4e81441cbc492ed3.png

    NAVGEM
    759b084e3838404b0016a3cc671bae58.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,582 ✭✭✭✭ pjohnson


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Ah here leave it out.

    +120hrs

    ECM
    ECU1-120.GIF

    GFS
    01a5f73d8f74f7c22c474dfbb0a2a822.png

    WRF
    1fb8cd5830ef7edb4e81441cbc492ed3.png

    NAVGEM
    759b084e3838404b0016a3cc671bae58.png

    Oh. Is it a certainty to hit?

    Mod Edit


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭ jArgHA


    pjohnson wrote: »
    Fuck. Is it a certainty to hit?

    No


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,582 ✭✭✭✭ pjohnson


    jArgHA wrote: »
    No

    Thank god. I'm a weather idiot so find these graphs hard to follow. Appreciate the help.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,796 ✭✭✭✭ hatrickpatrick


    pjohnson wrote: »
    Fuck. Is it a certainty to hit?

    This far out, absolutely not. It's not even a certainty to develop a closed circulation before the wind shear rips it apart - NHC give it a 40% chance. One to watch, but not one to panic about just yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,142 ✭✭✭✭ Akrasia


    Those models show it zipping across the atlantic at ludicrous speed

    Must be averaging 30kts the whole way


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    No such thing as a certainty with the weather. There was a 180km/h wind indication 24hrs ago for where I am - honestly I'd be surprised if we got 120.

    The fact that there's consensus between a few different models shows "something is up". Not possible to be any more definitive than that 120hrs out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 47,070 ✭✭✭✭ tayto lover


    Ah feck.
    Back into the bunker.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,475 ✭✭✭✭ RobbingBandit


    Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,582 ✭✭✭✭ pjohnson


    For goodness sake. Thats the family holiday done then.

    Mod Edit:


  • Registered Users Posts: 576 ✭✭✭ Monkeynut


    pjohnson wrote: »
    Fuck. Is it a certainty to hit?

    Most definitely it will hit, somewhere, where eh who knows.

    the weather can change at any given time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,062 ✭✭✭ Pwindedd


    Okay I'm going entirely from memory now but in the great storm ( I was in SE england 87') I'm sure i remember about a few days or week later we got another storm - first one was at night and massive power cuts etc, but second one was during day and we were all in school when the windows started smashing and we were sent home. I'm merely suggesting that when the conditions are right maybe these conditions repeat themselves for a short while - like a mini-season over a week or so


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,142 ✭✭✭✭ Akrasia


    Monkeynut wrote: »
    Most definitely it will hit, somewhere, where eh who knows.

    the weather can change at any given time.

    It hasn't formed yet, its more likely to dissipate and get swallowed up by another weather system


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,974 ✭✭✭ Chris_5339762


    Thats interesting that they are predicting a second, almost identical looking storm. But the funny thing is they progress completely differently across the Atlantic.

    These ones usually (in my experience) head a bit further north with each model run and I think I would prefer that than the current runs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,893 ✭✭✭ allthedoyles


    yr.no have us down for heavy rain Friday evening / Saturday morning in the SE.
    Supposed to bit breezy too , but hopefully not gale.


  • Registered Users Posts: 612 ✭✭✭ Snowc


    pjohnson wrote: »
    For fuck sake. Thats the family holiday done then.

    Too far out yet to know but travel buses should still be running so you should be ok for your day trip .


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Snowc wrote: »
    Too far out yet to know but travel buses should still be running so you should be ok for your day trip .

    If it's too far out to know, how do you know buses should be running? What winds are expected if it goes to forecast?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Going by the current synoptics, I'd say something along the lines of 50-60mph but not ruling out 70mph. It could all change as posters have highlighted however.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    Pretty good consensus across the models that it will form and will head towards us, no real agreement on track and intensity though

    Already in view on the hi res Arpege model which did a pretty good job of todays event, not as strong and well to the south but it'll be worth a watch over the next few days

    arpegeeur-0-114_eca2.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,446 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Ah here leave it out.

    +120hrs

    ECM
    ECU1-120.GIF

    GFS
    01a5f73d8f74f7c22c474dfbb0a2a822.png

    WRF
    1fb8cd5830ef7edb4e81441cbc492ed3.png

    NAVGEM
    759b084e3838404b0016a3cc671bae58.png

    Are ya havin a giraffe?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Snowc wrote: »
    Wow a lot of anger in your post just looking at what the charts are showing now, of course I don't know what it will be like in 5 days.Maybe go out and get some fresh air from Ophelia :p

    Fresh air from Ophelia? :eek: you're crazy.

    Anyway, getting off topic here.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,582 ✭✭✭✭ pjohnson


    Snowc wrote: »
    Too far out yet to know but travel buses should still be running so you should be ok for your day trip .

    Maybe my first impressions of this forum being helpful was mistaken. A few more AH style posters.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Going by the current synoptics, I'd say something along the lines of 50-60mph but not ruling out 70mph. It could all change as posters have highlighted however.

    Although, with this from Windy.com and the ECMWF, I'd expect stronger winds than what I said above:

    05iRILx.png

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    pjohnson wrote: »
    Maybe my first impressions of this forum being helpful was mistaken.

    What?

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Joanna after the news she went as far as Wednesday then said "We will leave the rest for another day" sounds like she knows something


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  • Registered Users Posts: 612 ✭✭✭ Snowc


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Although, with this from Windy.com and the ECMWF, I'd expect stronger winds than what I said above:

    [IMGimg[/IMG]

    I keep getting an error when I try to load windy today.What web browser are you using ?


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