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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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M.T. Cranium

nacho libre wrote: »

.

Point taken. :pac:

dacogawa

ECM heading back a bit north...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018021912/ECM0-192.GIF?19-0

BLIZZARD7

Stunning ECM when it gets going - more depth to the cold pool pouring in from the north east...

NAGDEFI

Much improved 12z ECM. Cold pool shifted significantly north. We still have skin in the game:)

-8 850s hitting the eastern third of the country by 1pm this day week..

nacho libre

LEIN

boards is breaking in anticipation of an epic run.

JCX BXC

Better at 168hrs though

BLIZZARD7

JCX BXC wrote: »

Don't see much of a change compared to the 00Z so far.

It's a good bit better - cold pool further north and shape of high better, but cold air is a day behind the GFS, point is it's still game on...

ECH1-144.GIF?19-0

JCX BXC

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Okay cold won't be in as fast as the other models but importantly here it's taken good steps towards the GFS.

Don't see much of a change compared to the 00Z so far.

BLIZZARD7

We're starting off well guys...

Okay cold won't be in as fast as the other models but importantly here it's taken good steps towards the GFS.

BLIZZARD7

+180 MEAN 850 temps from the 12z GFS - Stunning

Then have a look at these wind chill temps as a Blizzard moves in from the south -

222-290UK.GIF?19-12

nacho libre

12_204_ukthickness.png.7f08ac71780e026b5bcdd7026419a8f9.png

12_195_ukwbt.png.012979166171eb9717ca31019feea779.png

I think there will no debate about what kind of precipitation falls if these parameters are correct! You don't often see 508 dam thickness over Ireland!

Rebelbrowser

Yeah, all turns on tonight's ECM I think. If its like the GFS and both are the same in the morning you can start whispering about this to friends and family......

JCX BXC

And finally, after the low moves up towards Norway and weakens, a light northerly flow becomes established bringing down lower uppers. The big low pressure in the Atlantic that ruined the fun on the 06Z has disappeared completely. If we could lock in this run and get it I'd be very happy.

JCX BXC

And finally, a beautiful frontal snow band moving up Wednesday Night/Thursday

Several feet of snow anyone?

JCX BXC

Not a bad 12Z GFS run, sticking to its guns mostly with a few adjustments, looks more plausible if anything.

Monday 26th

Daytime Temperatures on Tuesday....brrr....

Wednesday night.....

GFS going for frequent snow showers from Monday onwards

Also, please don't quote pics.

JCX BXC

Latest GFS delaying the arrival of the coldest uppers slightly, nothing surprising considering they have been brought forward in time several times.

Currently forecasting a nice band of snow crossing the country in a week, not too bad 7 days out. My confidence is growing slightly. If we see a good ECM I will finally allow myself to gain a slight bit of optimism

TheMilkyPirate

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Icon is very good, -12c 850s flooding in this time next week - All the 12z runs looking better so far...

UKMO on board at +144 as well. Also looking like another good GFS run

ECM will be interesting later

BLIZZARD7

Icon is very good, -12c 850s flooding in this time next week - All the 12z runs looking better so far...

George Sunsnow

That was a very positive forecast from Aiden as Regards confidence towards what’s coming
All that warm air advection up the center of the Atlantic can only mean one thing, a high out there near Iceland

He was definitely suggesting or at least not denying that the super cold he’s pointing to in the attached screen grab would be making inroads next week

Can’t post the screen grab because boards has imposed an arbitrary 1Mb attachment size again
Seriously boards?
The screen grab is 1.45 mb.,,

Elmer Blooker

Pangea wrote: »

Here's the latest from the Met Office
https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155592656239209/

Interesting bit at the end of that forecast.

" ..... snow flurries next weekend, nothing too heavy at this stage .."

Pangea

Here's the latest from the Met Office
https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155592656239209/

Calibos

The pessimist in me thinks that in 10 days we'll be crying looking at photo's of 2ft of snow in Wales, the Balearic Islands, Morocco and Algeria

BLIZZARD7

These charts are something you very very rarely get to see, I hope the GFS has a better handle on things and I do remember it was the better model in 2010 - I feel a halfway house with ECM might be the reality though, which will still be interesting...

Ensemble MEANS

Will this winter go down as a little colder and more interesting than normal or as one of the classics?

patneve2

We may very well end up with an ECM like solution, although maybe not as bad as what the 0z run is showing. More like a half way house between GFS and ECM, but a bit closer to the ECM route - high pressure and not much precip over Ireland. Would be a real real pity as the GFS ensembles are still very very good. Missing 2010 a lot, the model consistency for that cold spell was amazing, was always going to be bulls eye that year.

KingdomRushed

The amazing thing about this is the consistency across all the models to form this huge block, with us either slap bang in the mother of all easterlies or just a tad too far north of the beast.

What is not so amazing, is, even though there is great consistency in the model output it is still this day next week that the real hard cold is shown to arrive on. A lot of water to flow under the bridge so

BLIZZARD7

Typically now the ECM will hop on board and the GFS will drop it south...

Darwin

12Z ECM rolls out between 6pm and 7pm

pauldry

Today's 12Z ECM could be the most important run of the winter

At what time is this out?

JCX BXC

Easterly continuing on the GFS, no southwesterly.