FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

Incredible to see the jet stream behaving like this!

sparrowcar

nacho libre wrote: »

Incredible to see the jet stream behaving like this!

I imagine transatlantic airlines will be running out of sick bags.. decent bit of turbulence while passing at a 90 degree angle through that.

nacho libre

Someone mentioned dewpoints earlier. They are just about on the right side of marginal:D

gabeeg

The ICON is looking good for a chance at a snowy Monday morning in Dublin

BLIZZARD7

That ICON run is a nice upgrade - colder air on a higher trajectory coming in from europe, severe week incoming.

BLIZZARD7

Some uncertainty on how close the high will be to us early in the week - pretty good consistency across the models this morning though.

GEM has the extreme option nicely lined up for day 7 - huge pool of sub -20c 850s over Northern europe.

BLIZZARD7

06z GFS turns very snowy after starting off the week dry enough -

gabeeg

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

06z GFS turns very snowy after starting off the week dry enough -

This is an amazing run. Prolonged and imminent severe cold about to push in from the looks of things.

BLIZZARD7

Incredible snowstorm in FI- 24 hours of heavy dry snow for the east coast, uppers of -10 to -13c - insane! Then followed up by streamers, precip charts have more than 36 hours of continuous Snow in some parts of the east in -12c uppers...

bnt

Meteociel's snow forecast has it moving from the east and hitting Ireland late next week, with up to 5cm in the Wicklow area:



PS those figures for central UK look alarming. It's lambing season in Yorkshire, Cumbria etc.

snowstorm445

I don’t think those models take into account streamers and the lake snow effect, so the actual figure could be much higher.

Storm 10

bnt wrote: »

Meteociel's snow forecast has it moving from the east and hitting Ireland late next week, with up to 5cm in the Wicklow area:



PS those figures for central UK look alarming. It's lambing season in Yorkshire, Cumbria etc.

Are those figures for the West in yellow correct it looks like a lot of snow if I am reading it correctly

Timistry

Storm 10 wrote: »

bnt wrote: »

Meteociel's snow forecast has it moving from the east and hitting Ireland late next week, with up to 5cm in the Wicklow area:



PS those figures for central UK look alarming. It's lambing season in Yorkshire, Cumbria etc.

Are those figures for the West in yellow correct it looks like a lot of snow if I am reading it correctly

No, yellow = 0

Rebelbrowser

Screen shot from UK Met website for next Tuesday. Not bad....

highdef

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Screen shot from UK Met website for next Tuesday. Not bad....

Looks great as I don't see anything....must be a complete white-out so :D:D

john mayo 10

GEM 0Z. looks good for next week

patneve2

GFS ensembles are good, showing a window of 5 days for potential snowfall. Also, I like the OP run that has a low forming in the flow and eventually sitting over Wales. Don't like the ECM at all. Overall still a lot of positives in the models, but it has to be said that they don't look as good as 1-2 days ago. The saga continues...

munsterlegend

highdef wrote: »

Looks great as I don't see anything....must be a complete white-out so :D:D

Rebel currently being sued for breach of copyright!

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

Rebel currently being sued for breach of copyright!

Didn't realise my post went up! Thought I had abandoned post when boards.ie wouldn't let me attach due to size of file. Anyway, it was nothing, just showed -15c (ground) temps for everyone and blizzards with a guaranteed 40cm for all. Don't think it was of interest to anyone really.

patneve2

GFS at 114 hrs. Crazy cold pool. Some parts of Europe on the cusp of a once in a 30 year event.

patneve2

FI threshold well below the 120 hr mark. Crucial runs coming up, especially on Friday/Saturday.

Rebelbrowser

patneve2 wrote: »

FI threshold well below the 120 hr mark. Crucial runs coming up, especially on Friday/Saturday.

Agree. The GFS and the UKMO quite different to previous runs and, and especially, to each other. Whilst it is cold here either way, for mid France we can confidently say that by the middle of next week they will have uppers of somewhere between -14 and +6!

Kermit.de.frog

A proper blizzard on the GFS control run. A whole myriad of possible outcomes across the models for next week. Some extreme, some benign.

BLIZZARD7

GEFS with some beautiful means at days 6/7/8- the Coldest pulse of air has us in its sights, not pushed south.

Kermit.de.frog

168 is awesome.

patneve2

I like the northerly trend on the GFS. Also I like the means posted above. A smoother evolution of the 12z with a cleaner high could really send us into the freezer. In addition, features popping up that somewhat deflect the colder uppers away from us aren't necessarily detrimental, sometimes these features can increase the likelihood of heavy precipitation. Have to say that this model watching is starting to get a bit exhausting, I hope the models reach an agreement soon.

nacho libre

UKMO looks good to me in the long run- the high is heading to Greenland. It should help to prolong the cold spell by opening up the door to a northeasterly airflow.

nacho libre

Let's hope the ECM tonight backs the GFS not the other way around!

Darwin

Looks like a week long event only on GFS though, but lets get the cold in first and worry about the details after!

ninebeanrows

Good trend on the GEFS....

Now for the EC.... time for a strong drink !