FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

sryanbruen

Absolute monster of a Scandinavian High on the GFS 12z FI today!

P.S. George Sunsnow, I'll answer to your posts when I can.

BLIZZARD7

sryanbruen wrote: »

Absolute monster of a Scandinavian High on the GFS 12z FI today!

P.S. George Sunsnow, I'll answer to your posts when I can.

Thats the holy grail, block extending from Greenland to Russia across scandi.

Edit: looking through how it develops its not quite there yet with alignment but it is very close to perfection.

BLIZZARD7

Il take this...

Gaoth Laidir

George Sunsnow wrote: »

To say they can’t model from what isn’t there to be fed in as it hasn’t happened yet is right though and is what I was saying...
Sigh :rolleyes:

Not sure why you're so sarcastic after a comment like that. As others have since said, forecast models forecast what isn't there now, otherwise what's the point?

George Sunsnow

Not biting

Gaoth Laidir

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Not biting

What's this not biting lark every time someone makes a comment against you? At least acknowledge your mistake and move on and leave out the sarcasm.

Anyway, the rest of this month is looking the most interesting since December 2010. Hopefully we'll end up on the right side of any block that forms. I've enough of this northwesterly nothingness.

George Sunsnow

I’m going to continue posting and explaining my opinion here and asking questions despite contrarion views from others and that is as stated,that FI will be even more all over the shop until this SW plays out
What I’ll not be doing is rising to any bait however carefully laid

The model output should get better as we see more of that SW but by golly it’s already has some potential belters not least this effectively returning easterly at day 10 last night
It’s atlantic carriage at the end as it journeys in would be way less modifying than some of our northwesterly visits so far yet still have great shower fetch

Kermit.de.frog

ECM 240 warms the heart

BLIZZARD7

NH view is a beaut, split vortex on its last legs, Greeny High pumping up and the floodgates starting to open to our North east...

Donegal Storm

I know little of the physics behind strat warmings but its only forecast to get going in 2-3 days time yet the pattern change starts just a few days later so it's hard to believe the two are directly connected. The NH profile is already heavily amplified at the moment so that disruption to flow probably has more to do with it

ECMWF and GFS are actually broadly similar at 240z despite the big changes run to run so definitely seems to be a strong signal for something

Meteorite58

Worth keeping an eye on next Weds/ Thurs to see if this develops into a Windy/ stormy event. Looks like remaining quite cold next week for the most part.

nacho libre

Donegal Storm wrote: »

I know little of the physics behind strat warmings but its only forecast to get going in 2-3 days time yet the pattern change starts just a few days later so it's hard to believe the two are directly connected. The NH profile is already heavily amplified at the moment so that disruption to flow probably has more to do with it

ECMWF and GFS are actually broadly similar at 240z despite the big changes run to run so definitely seems to be a strong signal for something

What you could be seeing in the models is the effect of mjo going to phase 8- this is independent of the strat warming. Although strat warmings don't always have a lag effect of two weeks. We should still be cautious about it all, because even a severly weakened piece of vortex in the wrong place could ruin our chances. There is no guarantee the hudson bay piece of vortex gets obliterated.

nacho libre

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/961494079480778752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMJVentrice%2Fstatus%2F961494079480778752

https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2018_02/5a7ce9ba545df_ScreenShot2018-02-09at00_20_56.png.68516cea3a133f8b168da7e44ebfc9a5.png

so, hopefully it does go right for us and we get two weeks of dry snow nirvana!

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/961494079480778752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMJVentrice%2Fstatus%2F961494079480778752

https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2018_02/5a7ce9ba545df_ScreenShot2018-02-09at00_20_56.png.68516cea3a133f8b168da7e44ebfc9a5.png

so, hopefully it does go right for us and we get two weeks of dry snow nirvana!

As I’ve been saying, 1985 is the only example of such a PV split as the one here in February 2018 and that had a quick tropospheric response - in less than 2 weeks for Ireland and instantaneously for Europe.

You could be most likely correct to the model response being towards MJO but then again, I have little to no knowledge regarding that oscillation and I struggle to learn about it .

Imagine if the SSW after all this ruined our cold spell from being prolonged...... I’d say that’s an unlikely occurrence fortunately.

sryanbruen

ECM 00z for next Thursday.



Meanwhile, at the end of the run.....

patneve2

Looks like we'll have to deal with plenty more shots of PM air for at least another week. Starting to really hope for a pattern change now around the 18th/19th, these waves of PM air have to be incredibly potent (see 1984) to get anything significant here (+5cm) in the east.

BLIZZARD7

Today's best run goes to ensemble 15 from the 06z GFS - an easterly to rival any of the classics... If only

pad199207

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Today's best run goes to ensemble 15 from the 06z GFS - an easterly to rival any of the classics... If only

Can you just imagine if that was the +48 chart

BLIZZARD7

pad199207 wrote: »

Can you just imagine if that was the +48 chart

One can dream, the country would come to a standstill.

BLIZZARD7

Superb ensemble mean and a very strong signal for scandi blocking at such a long range on the 12z GFS -



Control run ~

BLIZZARD7

This evenings ECM

Meteorite58

Looking Tasty BLIZZARD7

Meteorite58

ECM still keeping that Depression close to our shores next Weds/ Thurs.

The GFS has it tracking it much further North , big change to earlier runs, might come back more in line with the ECM I reckon.

sdanseo

The JMA and ECM resolutions for Wednesday's storm event look potentially quite dangerous for the northwest. There's a gradient of 10mb there contained within Mayo alone.

NAGDEFI

The SSW and easterlies are hopeful for cold lovers. However i can't help look at the charts and note dates like 24th February. We're heading out of the 'core' of the winter. 3 hrs more daylight than late December and so on. Also we're encroaching on Spring and the growing season.

I know we've had memorable lasting snowfalls like 25/26 February 1947 and obviously more recently around 22/23 March 2013 in Northern Ireland. But i wish these synoptics were predicted 2 months ago...even a month.

Rougies

Large Funeral wrote: »

The SSW and easterlies are hopeful for cold lovers. However i can't help look at the charts and note dates like 24th February. We're heading out of the 'core' of the winter. 3 hrs more daylight than late December and so on. Also we're encroaching on Spring and the growing season.

I know we've had memorable lasting snowfalls like 25/26 February 1947 and obviously more recently around 22/23 March 2013 in Northern Ireland. But i wish these synoptics were predicted 2 months ago...even a month.

I think a decent cold easterly in late feb / early march would absolutely destroy any notions you have of a couple of extra daylight hours and sun strength being a major factor regarding temperatures and snow accumulations.

It is a factor of course, but we're usually so marginal that the heat from a bear sh1tting in the woods (if we had bears) upstream would make the difference between rain and snow even in the deepest depths of winter.

If a potent easterly flow from a cold russia/europe happens before St. Patricks Day we'll be good.

Kermit.de.frog

GFS has brought change forward somewhat to 192

sryanbruen

Can I order P07 please?

pad199207

sryanbruen wrote: »

Can I order P07 please?

Charts from the 17, then 19th and now the 26th? I think this is going down a very familiar route....

derekon

pad199207 wrote: »

Charts from the 17, then 19th and now the 26th? I think this is going down a very familiar route....

Whet route is that? The "always next week and then suddenly it's Spring" route? That's the road most travelled for us boardsies!!

D