LongshotValue 40 bets 1 year

longshotvalue

Fanny **** wrote: »

Hyperbole, when someone won't take 5/2 on a 4/6 shot

A lot of people (not aimed at Aidan) think you can only get value on a double figure price. They'd sneer at punting what should be 4/6 shots at evs while getting their "bit of value" by backing a 16/1 shot that starts double that betfair SP

I have put up a small number of very short priced horses over the years, and am a long way more profitable with those over an admittedly small sample size. At short prices when i'm staking small i'm not bothered unless its literally like finding money in the road.

Father Hernandez

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Fair play on the selection but come off it like you went on a tour to get your point e/w on.

Fair play once again Aidan, as mentioned before me one of the best threads on boards.ie having followed for quite some time.

Don't need the negativity from the above poster!

danganabu

Fanny **** wrote: »

Hyperbole, when someone won't take 5/2 on a 4/6 shot

A lot of people (not aimed at Aidan) think you can only get value on a double figure price. They'd sneer at punting what should be 4/6 shots at evs while getting their "bit of value" by backing a 16/1 shot that starts double that betfair SP

That horse was actually beaten so Aidan was correct in looking elsewhere!

I get what you are saying about value and prices, but that is not what this thread is about, the clue is actually in the title!

Feel free to start your own thread on value picks, at any price you consider value, and if its as successful as this thread I will be the first to apologise 100%.

Fanny Wank

danganabu wrote: »

That horse was actually beaten so Aidan was correct in looking elsewhere!

No he wasn't

danganabu

Fanny **** wrote: »

No he wasn't

I thought that arguement at the time was about The New One in the International? Was he not beat by MTOY or have I gotten the wrong horse?

longshotvalue

Fanny **** wrote: »

No he wasn't

Maybe im wrong but was it not The New One in December and my old fav MTOY beat him on soft ground.

Fanny Wank

danganabu wrote: »

I thought that arguement at the time was about The New One in the International? Was he not beat by MTOY or have I gotten the wrong horse?

He didn't know he'd be beaten before the race when he could get 5/2 about a 4/6 shot

40% of 4/6 shots will get beaten. Unless you know which ones will be beat before the race (in which case they'd be a million, not 4/6) you can't apply hindsight like you are

Put all 4/6 shots at prices > 4/6. You'll win some, you'll lose some but you'll make money long term

Fanny ****

Fanny **** wrote: »

He didn't know he'd be beaten before the race when he could get 5/2 about a 4/6 shot

Aidan explained at the time that he doesn't stake at amounts that make backing 5/2 shots worthwhile or interesting. That seems fair enough to me, no idea why you are returning to the argument.

Keep up the good work Aidan. But please tell me KKK doesn't mean what I think it does!

longshotvalue

Deleted User wrote: »

Aidan explained at the time that he doesn't stake at amounts that make backing 5/2 shots worthwhile or interesting. That seems fair enough to me, no idea why you are returning to the argument.

Keep up the good work Aidan. But please tell me KKK doesn't mean what I think it does!

My old username was aidankk and there was some boards.ie prblem a long time ago and iin had to change the name. Must see can i get it back. KK means kilkenny.

danganabu

aidankkk wrote: »

. KK means kilkenny.

Sh*t thats even worse than what Orinoco was suggesting

jimjamcos

aidankkk wrote:

Ha, there is only 2 shops in kilkenny and i had small enough EW bet on each in each shop.

Well done on picks Aidan (followed you on Thunder and Roses) but don't get why people are questioning PC's comment.

Given you've always been upfront on here that your stakes aren't massive and you sometimes don't even back your own selections, I thought it fair.

You also tipped up Wounded Warrior as a tentative win only bet so surprised to see you went to effort of going to shops to back ew?

No need to jump on this btw lads. Just I can see why PC queried the post.

sword1

jimjamcos wrote: »

Well done on picks Aidan (followed you on Thunder and Roses) but don't get why people are questioning PC's comment.

Given you've always been upfront on here that your stakes aren't massive and you sometimes don't even back your own selections, I thought it fair.

You also tipped up Wounded Warrior as a tentative win only bet so surprised to see you went to effort of going to shops to back ew?

No need to jump on this btw lads. Just I can see why PC queried the post.

What aidan puts up here as recommended bets and what he does himself are probably two separate things, have ever found yourself not following your own advice? I know I often do. Also as you can see from the thread title aiden can change his own approach, I remember aiden posting before that he bets little but I get the impression that he might have upped his stakes.
Either way I think he should be left a bit of leeway,too many are looking to find faults.

Thanks aidan I followed you with the point ew on thunder and rose's but went 1/2 point ew on wounded warrior rather than the win bet, I am sure there are others who might have taken that approach with the five places in pp that I was not aware of either till I read this thread

jimjamcos

sword1 wrote:

What aidan puts up here as recommended bets and what he does himself are probably two separate things, have ever found yourself not following your own advice? I know I often do. Also as you can see from the thread title aiden can change his own approach, I remember aiden posting before that he bets little but I get the impression that he might have upped his stakes. Either way I think he should be left a bit of leeway,too many are looking to find faults.

Thanks for not jumping to conclusions anyway...

As expected, questioning this results in instant accusations of negativity. Why is this thread so defensive though?

Yes Aidan, like the rest of us, may be open to a change of mind but to go from tentatively tipping a horse win only to a good ew bet in the space of a few hours would seem unlikely for someone as shrewd as Aidan who seems to choose, back and stake his bets very carefully.

Just my opinion, but why not ask a question if you have one eh? Nothing wrong with speaking your mind lads!

longshotvalue

As i said earlier the points were only low here because only 1 outfit had the 5 place offer and its not realistic for everyone to get 2 or 3pts EW on with only 1 bookie.

I had planned a small win bet on Betfair on Wounded Warrior but couldn't resist the ew bet when i went to back Thunder and Roses. There are only 2 shops in kk and i had a small enough EW bet on each . I think the max on these specials is probably small enough.

I haven't upped my stakes at all. I have in fact backed a few of the ones ive put up as win bets here EW just because when i'm in the shop it feels right.

All that said EW betting is for the most part a huge looser and everyone would be miles better betting everything win only. Unless there is a silly offer like this.


Now back to looking at Cheltenham for Antepost bets.

Shemale

Fair play Aidan, constantly on fire. I really should start backing these.

Hoboo

Shemale wrote: »

Fair play Aidan, constantly on fire. I really should start backing these.

Only started following since Mid Dec, and thats the first two places from around 20 tips. Not having a go, just not constant since I started following :eek::D

Bozo Skeleton

Hoboo wrote: »

Only started following since Mid Dec, and thats the first two places from around 20 tips. Not having a go, just not constant since I started following :eek::D

At the odds he picks them at there's always going to be long losing streaks. Have a look through his threads. Aidan is a legend.

Mr_Roger_Bongos

Hoboo wrote: »

Shemale wrote: »

Fair play Aidan, constantly on fire. I really should start backing these.

Only started following since Mid Dec, and thats the first two places from around 20 tips. Not having a go, just not constant since I started following :eek::D

Drawdown's are all part of the game here. I believe the worst run on the last thread had us down to -65 pts.
By my calcs on this thread the lowest was -35pts, but we're now at >80pts in profit. At €5 a point, that's €400 of profit if you'd been in from the start.
You've joined at a low point unfortunately, but past results would indicate you should stick with it.

Shemale

Hoboo wrote: »

Only started following since Mid Dec, and thats the first two places from around 20 tips. Not having a go, just not constant since I started following :eek::D

Some of us are around here a few years and have seen what he does, not having a go :eek::D

Hoboo

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

Drawdown's are all part of the game here. I believe the worst run on the last thread had us down to -65 pts.
By my calcs on this thread the lowest was -35pts, but we're now at >80pts in profit. At €5 a point, that's €400 of profit if you'd been in from the start.
You've joined at a low point unfortunately, but past results would indicate you should stick with it.

Im not into betting, just following out of interest. Reason I started following was the winning streak pre December. Fair play to Aidan, has picked some crazy results, with a super double pick yesterday. I was simply pointing out its not constant as someone suggested, peaks and troughs as you have said, with a positive result overall.

stretchaq

Why has this thread, which is a great read being derailed with 2 pages of criticism and stupid comments, what Aidan back doesn't back is up to Aidan, what I love is the write ups and big price winners, I love when I fancy a big price horse and then Aidan has tipped it aswell, you know your Saturday if off to the right note, I don't post often but I think Aidan is a top spec tipster and his threads are always fantastic, keep up the good work!!

handsfree2

stretchaq wrote: »

Why has this thread, which is a great read being derailed with 2 pages of criticism and stupid comments, what Aidan back doesn't back is up to Aidan, what I love is the write ups and big price winners, I love when I fancy a big price horse and then Aidan has tipped it aswell, you know your Saturday if off to the right note, I don't post often but I think Aidan is a top spec tipster and his threads are always fantastic, keep up the good work!!

Here here.

thesandeman

It's just jealousy. Attempts were made to derail Zimmers and the tips threads a well.

Guffy

thesandeman wrote: »

It's just jealousy. Attempts were made to derail Zimmers and the tips threads a well.

Seriously comparing aidan to zimmer?

mailburner

thesandeman wrote: »

It's just jealousy. Attempts were made to derail Zimmers and the tips threads a well.

Jealousy!!!
Really?
Sigh!

JenovaProject

Ah lads can yis not start a new thread or something yis are making a balls of this one.
Aidan answered the original query and this bollox is still going on.
Please.

abarkie

For me, he tipped Wounded Warrior win only and then said he gave 2nd and 4th and had Wounded Warrior each way

Hence PC's query

That is where it has gone pear shaped - Fer me anyway

longshotvalue

Hopefully we can draw a line under my huge gaff :rolleyes:

3:35 Cheltenham


I keep looking at this race coming to the same horse. Ex Patriot really has the look of a strong stayer, has some fairly eye-popping form already this year over shorter and will act on the ground. I think he will probably improve for the step up in trip. Even forgetting all that on actual ratings now he has very little to find with most of these. We also have to throw on a very good run last year in the Triumph Hurdle. 33/1 looks a fair few points too big. I normally wouldn’t go EW in this type of race but he is very consistent and will handle course and ground. He’s a 20/1 shot at most here.



2 Points EW 33/1 ¼ place 365 1/5th betfair/sun/paddy/boyles

longshotvalue

Cheltenham 1:50

Potters Legend strikes me as well handicapped horse. He ran superbly in the Hennessy but didn’t look to stay. Getting dropped 5lbs for that run is a big bonus. He is a big price here because he pulled up next time out on stupid ground at Newbury over too long a trip again. I think if he can bowl along in front here with a light weight he might be much harder to catch. His course form is very good as well. 20/1 is big and I’d be happy with 16/1 or over.


1 Point win 20/1 sky/coral/vc/betfair exch

longshotvalue

Cheltenham 4:10

The stepping up in trip experiment didn’t work for Dino Velvet. This is a much weaker race than the last couple he has competed in and of a lowly mark of 121 he surly has a great chance here. He has some solid course form and should be involved here. 14/1 is value


1 Point win 14/1 365/hills/vc