LongshotValue 40 bets 1 year

longshotvalue

3:40 Cheltenham
I’m surprised at the price of Rons Dream here. Although she is top weight she has a good 5lbs claimer on here and isn’t giving a lot of weight to a few less proven horses. I think she has performed as well as could be expected so far this year and this trip and ground might well be in her favour. She looks one of the more likely winners at 16/1 is a fair bit too big given she has dropped to a mark that it well within her grasp.
1 Point win 16/1 Generally

longshotvalue

1:55 Cheltenham
I had another look at the Paddy Power here a few weeks ago and what struck me there is Romain De Senam actually went the inside line for the last mile of that race after cruising up to get near the front. Every other race that day any horse that went the shortest way around died on their feet so that makes his performance to finish 5th there a lot better than it initially seemed. He is also getting a few pounds from those ahead of him. I think he is a solid 7/1 or 8/1 shot here so the 14/1 on offer is far too big.
I was looking all week at Guitar Pete but decided to hold fire and I’m paying for it now as the 20/1 is long gone and I’m not sure how much value he is at 11/1 is this race. I’ll have a saver just to dull the pain if he does win. He is well treated and I’ve always had a decent chase handicap in mind for him.
2 Points win 14/1 Romain De Senam
1 Point win 11/1 Guitar Pete

1:20 Cheltenham
Sire De Grugy is far too big a price to ignore here in this race. He was very poor last time out but was pretty decent in his first run this year over hurdles. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this place woke him up a bit. He has been dropped 6lbs from that Ascot run and that mark could make it difficult for this field.
1 Point win 10/1 Generally

Fanny Wank

No sign of The New One who you make 4/6?

Probably the biggest edge bet you'll have this year, possibly any other year too

mailburner

backed sdg last time, can't have him after that run myself
ure some man if you can get a few quid out of him today

longshotvalue

Fanny **** wrote: »

No sign of The New One who you make 4/6?

Probably the biggest edge bet you'll have this year, possibly any other year too

I have a price in mind if he gets to it I'll go for.

00benski

Thanks Aidan

goldenboots

Just came across this thread recently. Great shout with Guitar Pete.Thanks.

Fanny Wank

aidankkk wrote: »

I have a price in mind if he gets to it I'll go for.

5/2 not good enough on a 4/6 shot???

4068ac1elhodqr

^ And at 3pl (3:05) The New One@3.25, what's the worst that could happen*
(*well then again, I did back Starchitect in the 1:55).

longshotvalue

Fanny **** wrote: »

5/2 not good enough on a 4/6 shot???

I would never back enough to care about winning with a 5/2 shot. And in general at that price I'm looking for near certainties as i don't put up many short ones. Also id prefer if Melon won this and also am tethering on the edge of a price for Old Guard. My Market would be

TNO 4/5
Melon 5/2
Tent 5/1
Ch-it 12/1
Old G 16/1
John C 33/1
DEl 100/1

Stheno

aidankkk wrote: »

I would never back enough to care about winning with a 5/2 shot. And in general at that price I'm looking for near certainties as i don't put up many short ones. Also id prefer if Melon won this and also am tethering on the edge of a price for Old Guard. My Market would be

TNO 4/5
Melon 5/2
Tent 5/1
Ch-it 12/1
Old G 16/1
John C 33/1
DEl 100/1

Who is dei aidan?

Father Hernandez

Stheno wrote: »

Who is dei aidan?

Dell'Arca

longshotvalue

There goes my Annual 50/1 EW bet on MTOY for the Champion. Wont be getting that now.

JustJoe7240

goldenboots wrote: »

Just came across this thread recently. Great shout with Guitar Pete.Thanks.

A very hollow victory with that one, Had him backed and wasn't cheering when he won.

abarkie

aidankkk wrote: »

There goes my Annual 50/1 EW bet on MTOY for the Champion. Wont be getting that now.

You will assuming the Faugheen hype machine kicks in

Not forgetting the :

What did it beat

Look at the time

Look at the ground

Look at the race

etc

longshotvalue

joecass123 wrote: »

A very hollow victory with that one, Had him backed and wasn't cheering when he won.

Neither was i despite the fact that i've been following him for a long time at this stage.

Startitect was in the process of taking the field apart being ridden more positively and is was just desperate to see

longshotvalue

abarkie wrote: »

You will assuming the Faugheen hype machine kicks in

Not forgetting the :

What did it beat

Look at the time

Look at the ground

Look at the race

etc

Not sure what you mean here. I just mentioned i wont get the 50/1 EW that i got last 2 years on MTOY. And i wouldn't be backing him at 25/1 ew this year.

abarkie

I mean that MTOY will be 50/1 on the day as the hype around the favourite will mean price will be bigger on MTOY

longshotvalue

abarkie wrote: »

I mean that MTOY will be 50/1 on the day as the hype around the favourite will mean price will be bigger on MTOY

Not a hope of being that price on the day. He comes in in price every year. and on good ground will still be placed probably.

If he is 50/1 on the day, i will be emptying the wallet all over the ring..

longshotvalue

Navan 1:20
Kauto Grand Mogol looks on a very good mark here after showing up well last time out. He got tired which is understandable after such a long layoff and it was only his 2nd run back. If he strips fitter here he should get involved. He has Cheltenham festival form of a higher mark that nothing else in this race would be able to achieve.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally

diomed

Killahara Castle, Thurles 14:10, 200/1 :eek:

Highest priced winner in Ireland this century.
There was £1,247 matched on the 200-1 winner at 1,000 on Betfair.

the whole year inn

diomed wrote: »

Killahara Castle, Thurles 14:10, 200/1 :eek:

Highest priced winner in Ireland this century.

One time please just one time.

sword1

diomed wrote: »

Killahara Castle, Thurles 14:10, 200/1 :eek:

Highest priced winner in Ireland this century.
There was £1,247 matched on the 200-1 winner at 1,000 on Betfair.

Is that 1 person bet 1247 or the total by a number of people?

Itziger

abarkie wrote: »

I mean that MTOY will be 50/1 on the day as the hype around the favourite will mean price will be bigger on MTOY

No, he won't. Any horse with a Cheltenham Group win in the same season, even if he's an 11 year old....... He'll be nearer 25 for sure.

diomed

diomed wrote: »

Killahara Castle, Thurles 14:10, 200/1 :eek:

The race was on heavy.
The dam ran on heavy in seven of her eight races.
On my one visit to Doncaster for the St Leger I backed the sire Vertical Speed (2nd good/firm), who only ran four times, three on soft or very soft..

diomed

sword1 wrote: »

Is that 1 person bet 1247 or the total by a number of people?

No idea. When those odds are taken the horse is usually out the back struggling and clever people are laying it to win 1 pound for their 1000 pounds.
In running comments in a field of six (one pulled up)
"Raced in rear, closer 3 out in 4th, went 3rd 2 out, stayed on well between horses to lead approaching last, pushed clear run-in"
That suggests nobody considered the horse had a chance in running.

But I see the Tote in Ireland paid 41.10 which suggests that there was some interest in the horse on course, probably the connections.

byronbay2

diomed wrote: »

But I see the Tote in Ireland paid 41.10 which suggests that there was some interest in the horse on course, probably the connections.

With the cut The Tote takes now, 41.10 is probably about the maximum you will ever get on a horse in a six-horse race, especially with an 8/13 favourite!

Luckily for me, I got a late word from the stable and had a sneaky €20 e/w @ SP. Didn't get a chance to write it up but made up for all the losing tips I posted yesterday and today! :)

Realalemadrid

byronbay2 wrote: »

Luckily for me, I got a late word from the stable and had a sneaky €20 e/w @ SP. Didn't get a chance to write it up but made up for all the losing tips I posted yesterday and today! :)

This person should be banned from Betting fora - for life.

Peintre Celebre

byronbay2 wrote: »

With the cut The Tote takes now, 41.10 is probably about the maximum you will ever get on a horse in a six-horse race, especially with an 8/13 favourite!

Luckily for me, I got a late word from the stable and had a sneaky €20 e/w @ SP. Didn't get a chance to write it up but made up for all the losing tips I posted yesterday and today! :)

Absolute filth

byronbay2

byronbay2 wrote: »

Luckily for me, I got a late word from the stable and had a sneaky €20 e/w @ SP. Didn't get a chance to write it up but made up for all the losing tips I posted yesterday and today! :)

Realalemadrid wrote: »

This person should be banned from Betting fora - for life.

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Absolute filth

I thought that my post was a pretty obvious joke but I guess my humour is too subtle for the internet.

To set the record straight: I have fallen completely out of betting on horses. Haven't had a horse bet since Royal Ascot and probably won't have another until Cheltenham, even though I follow horse racing all the time and have been racing all my life. The betting ring is basically dead and the bookies don't even seem to want to take a bet any more.