LongshotValue 40 bets 1 year

longshotvalue

Melbourne Cup 4:00 am

I couldn't have a more confident pick here. Hartnell looks a huge price at 28/1. He was a very good 3rd in this last year when well clear of the rest of the field. He is 3k better off with the winner for a 4 length beating and the runner up isn't here. He has had a lower key season this year than last and today is surly the day for him to be at his peak. There are negatives for him, being top weight but he is always carrying this weight anyway. This year's race is not as strong as last years as far as I can see. Of the Irish challengers I fancy Max Dynamite bit he is too short for this race. Wicklow brave will run a lot better than least here but the huge price with 6 places is gone so I'm not sure what value he is now. The 6 places on offer is a big concession for a consistent horse and I actually make Hartnell near evens to be in the 6. That makes the 5/1 on offer just far too big to ignore. His win chance isn't as much value id have him more of a 16/1 or 18/1 shot but that is still plenty of margin. Time for an actual bet with the 25/1 and 6 places with paddy/betfair/sky

3 Points EW 25/1 6 places paddy/betfair/sky

mailburner

hartnell a little over 2/1 on betfair ten places

longshotvalue

12:40
As De Pique has been given a decent shot here by the handicapper. He has bettter form than most of these last year in very good Irish handicaps and has a top class rider on board which is vital in these races. Although he is 12 he is relatively lightly raced and 20/1 is very big.
1 Point win 20/1 Generally
3:00
Vicomte Du Seuil has been running well is small races in France this year. He has some very decent form in the past and looks to have been given a decent shot here of a very light weight.The trainer knows how to win these and 20./1 looks too big.
1 Point win 20/1 365/hill/betf/paddy

Niallers87

aidankkk wrote: »

12:40
As De Pique has been given a decent shot here by the handicapper. He has bettter form than most of these last year in very good Irish handicaps and has a top class rider on board which is vital in these races. Although he is 12 he is relatively lightly raced and 20/1 is very big.
1 Point win 20/1 Generally
3:00
Vicomte Du Seuil has been running well is small races in France this year. He has some very decent form in the past and looks to have been given a decent shot here of a very light weight.The trainer knows how to win these and 20./1 looks too big.
1 Point win 20/1 365/hill/betf/paddy

Vicomte du seuil ran a great race; some picking

FLOOPER

aidankkk wrote: »

12:40
As De Pique has been given a decent shot here by the handicapper. He has bettter form than most of these last year in very good Irish handicaps and has a top class rider on board which is vital in these races. Although he is 12 he is relatively lightly raced and 20/1 is very big.
1 Point win 20/1 Generally
3:00
Vicomte Du Seuil has been running well is small races in France this year. He has some very decent form in the past and looks to have been given a decent shot here of a very light weight.The trainer knows how to win these and 20./1 looks too big.
1 Point win 20/1 365/hill/betf/paddy

Great picking Aidan. So so close. Ran a terrific race.

FLOOPER

<Snip>

longshotvalue

2:25

Splash of Ginge is a horse that always looks capable of a big run around here . He has a few very good runs in these races of much higher marks and although he was poor enough first time out this season , I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improved dramatically here . 50/1 makes the risk worthwhile .

1 pt ew 50/1 5 places generally

stretchaq

aidankkk wrote: »

2:25

Splash of Ginge is a horse that always looks capable of a big run around here . He has a few very good runs in these races of much higher marks and although he was poor enough first time out this season , I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improved dramatically here . 50/1 makes the risk worthwhile .

1 pt ew 50/1 5 places generally

With you on this Aidan couldn't believe price last night

longshotvalue

stretchaq wrote: »

With you on this Aidan couldn't believe price last night

Im all ready for him to be nutted by old fav Guitar Pete

Father Hernandez

aidankkk wrote: »

2:25

Splash of Ginge is a horse that always looks capable of a big run around here . He has a few very good runs in these races of much higher marks and although he was poor enough first time out this season , I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improved dramatically here . 50/1 makes the risk worthwhile .

1 pt ew 50/1 5 places generally

WOW, what a shout

BumperD

aidankkk wrote: »

2:25

Splash of Ginge is a horse that always looks capable of a big run around here . He has a few very good runs in these races of much higher marks and although he was poor enough first time out this season , I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improved dramatically here . 50/1 makes the risk worthwhile .

1 pt ew 50/1 5 places generally

Well done

DANNY2014

That was intense well done...

Stheno

Well done and thanks Aidan

aidankkk

aidankkk wrote: »

2:25

Splash of Ginge is a horse that always looks capable of a big run around here . He has a few very good runs in these races of much higher marks and although he was poor enough first time out this season , I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improved dramatically here . 50/1 makes the risk worthwhile .

1 pt ew 50/1 5 places generally

Unbelievable Aidan.

Absolutely super shout!!

BrianBoru00

BOOM

In Aidan We Trust

FLOOPER

Great stuff Aidan. Thank you.

Chancer3001

Well done. I had the second. Almost nailed ya on the line

longshotvalue

3:30
Bottom weight Perfect Summer has form on soft is fit from some very decent runs on the flat and has been a consistent hurdler. He might be difficult to knock out of the 5 places on offer here with paddy and others. 33/1 seems big
1 Point EW 5 places Paddy/sky/betfair/fred

rtron

Cheers aidan

mickey1979

thanks Aidan had him EW at 50/1

redzerdrog

Only seeing this now fantastic shout

sdoc13

Cheers aidan. Superb stuff. Hope u backed it

gazza1

Busy all day and only looking on here now.
Huge well done aiden

longshotvalue

3:00
Old Guard has been on my mind for this for a while now. I think he needs a fast 2 miles like this and has won on soft ground around here before. He has been close for us a few times over a longer trip last year. He really looked good last time out and I find it difficult to knock him out of the places here at a good price. 25/1 with 5 places looks great value with paddy and betfair
2 Points EW 25/1 5 places paddy/betfair 20/1 6 places sky

sdoc13

aidankkk wrote:

3:00 Old Guard has been on my mind for this for a while now. I think he needs a fast 2 miles like this and has won on soft ground around here before. He has been close for us a few times over a longer trip last year. He really looked good last time out and I find it difficult to knock him out of the places here at a good price. 25/1 with 5 places looks great value with paddy and betfair 2 Points EW 25/1 5 places paddy/betfair 20/1 6 places sky

aidankkk wrote:

3:00 Old Guard has been on my mind for this for a while now. I think he needs a fast 2 miles like this and has won on soft ground around here before. He has been close for us a few times over a longer trip last year. He really looked good last time out and I find it difficult to knock him out of the places here at a good price. 25/1 with 5 places looks great value with paddy and betfair 2 Points EW 25/1 5 places paddy/betfair 20/1 6 places sky

Agree think old guard is real value

4068ac1elhodqr

Value @26 for OG just gone 5mins ago, but still @21 on Sky (6pl).
additionally now opting for Nietzsche @13 (pp) on the aul accumulator.

Also backed aidankkk's the day before @51 (pp, as part of a pending 6-fold! - see the after-timing page shortly)
but just checked Sky receipt and was only @25 (some sacrifice for an extra place) on the 17th.

Was some reassurance when seen it favoured here earlier today, backed one of his winning 100/1's previously.

madmoose

Old Guard and The New One are the ones worth backing ew, looks a terrible Greatwood with no upcoming stars, keep faith in the “old guards” ;-)

longshotvalue

2:15
Lets face it Faugheen wins this without a doubt if he is anywhere near fit, but I think Campeador is making a decent price for Jezki . The ground may well not be in his favour and he is getting on but I still think he is a fair way clear of Campeador and if Faugheen isn’t right he should win. 7/1 13/2 is silliness.
1 Point win 13/2 Generally

aidankkk

aidankkk wrote: »

3:00
Old Guard has been on my mind for this for a while now. I think he needs a fast 2 miles like this and has won on soft ground around here before. He has been close for us a few times over a longer trip last year. He really looked good last time out and I find it difficult to knock him out of the places here at a good price. 25/1 with 5 places looks great value with paddy and betfair
2 Points EW 25/1 5 places paddy/betfair 20/1 6 places sky

Aidan thanks again! Super picking.