LongshotValue 40 bets 1 year

Ascot 3:00
Its not often in a race like y=this you would see last years winner in the form of his life, of a mark he can perform of at 14/1. That said Regal Encore is about as inconsistent as you could see. His run when we put him up EW in the Hennessy was the best run of his life and he was a nice bit clear of the rest of the field behind two real prospects. 14/1 is worth the risk
1 Point win 14/1 365/coral/stan
 
Ascot 3:35
Going with the fairly obvious big priced outsider here is Fergall. He ran well here last year a couple of times and again caught the eye in the much stronger Galway Hurdle this year. He is very lightly raced but can perform of this mark. 28/1 is definitely value here. Some at the top of the market don’t appeal at all and to me it looks as if Elgin should be favourite. He has gone up a lot in the weights, but I fancied him for the Supreme last year so I think he is still capable of improvement.
1 Point win Fergall 28/1 365 25/1 Generally
1 Point win Elgin 9/1 365 8/1 generally
Haydock 2:45
No Planning really catches my eye here on a light weight. He is proven of much higher marks in very soft ground. He has been dropped a fair way this year for a few admittedly poor runs but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he improves here with a lot in his favour. 16/1 on the face of it seems the right price but my gut is saying its going to look very big later.
2 Points win 16/1 Paddy 14/1 Generally

King George
There is so much racing on today but to be honest none of it is the type of big weekend handicap that I normally have a good look at. I’ve been looking at the King George all week knowing who I was going to pick but trying to convince myself that there was other options. When I look at the actual form of the contenders, I’m not sure of the strengths of some of the favourites here.
I’m a big fan of Might Byte, but on the face of it he wasn’t that impressive on his seasonal reappearance and beat Whisper twice last year, but wasn’t that hugely impressive the second time and Aintree.. There is no guarantee yet that he is the second coming that his price here indicates.
Whisper looks improved this year and its possible he may be better than Might Byte of form now, but I think he would want to be winning that poor Hennessy to be a true grade 1 horse.
Similarly, Fox Norton would have to win that Tingle Creek to be of interest here even though it is over a much shorter trip, it was a very poor renewal.
Bristol De Mai is a Grade 1 horse now but its unlikely he will get his favoured conditions here and this race is completely different than a heavy Betfair.
Tea for Three, Double Shuffle and Traffic Fluide shouldn’t be good enough although I wouldn’t be surprised if Traffic Fluide outran his odds here.
That leaves the only horse I’d be pricking anyway after all that waffle. Thistlecrack’s win last year actually reads a lot better than some give it credit as Cue Card and Tea for Three both won Grade 1s after. I had a good laugh at all the giving out about his reappearance as he would only have 1 real target and that is today.  He ran the type of race that I often look for in a horse that needed the run in that he travelled well and just blew up 2 out. He loves a fence and this is his perfect trip and course. His price keeps going out and the 8/1 available now is plenty big enough to take account of the risk that he may never be the same horse as he was.
2 Points win 8/1 365/hills/betfair/powers

Leopardstown 3:00
Apache Stronghold really sticks out for me here at a huge price. He was a near top class novice and id be happy enough with his run last time out behind the fav here Polidam. He had been off for a long time and it was only his second run back. He also has a big turnaround in the weights and will be suited by the step up in trip. I was really surprised by his price of 50/1 with 6 places. I think the extra value of the 6 places also warrants a decent EW bet.
Ill also give Road to Riches one more chance of a decent mark with a  7lbs claimer on. The slightly better ground here will suit and I think he still has a decent performance in him as a 10 yo.
2 Points EW Apache Stronghold 50/1 6 places betfair/Paddy
1 Point EW Road to Riches 50/1 6 places betfair.paddy

2:05 Chepstow
I’ve had Firebird Flyer in mind for this for what seems a long time now. He is a horse that I’ve followed with success in the past and he will relish both the trip and ground here. He travelled really well into this race last year when the savage pace from the start probably cost him with the additional 11lbs that he had to carry as well. He has also been 2^nd in this before of a higher mark and won the Midlands National of 8lbs higher. I’m pretty sure that he needed to drop a good few pounds to get fully competitive here again and managed that last year with a number of poor performances. His seasonal opener over hurdles was eye catching when running on in 3^rd, behind 2 decent horses, consider all the P’s in his for before that. He just has to have been prepared for a tilt at today’s race and should get competitive. 40/1 with 5 places is certainly value here.
2 Points EW 40/1 5 places paddy/betfair 33/1 6 places sky.

Wincanton 2:40

its not often I will fancy 2 in a 6 horse race but I think the 2 outsiders here from V Williams yard can get very close in ideal conditions . The rest are either too high in the weights or won't go on the ground .I think they will both shorten .

1 point win Uhlan Bute 10/1

1 point win Pressurise 12/1

2:10 Punchestown
Every Horse has its price and I think there may be a bit of value in the outsider of the field here .Makitorix pulled too hard last time out and then had a jarring jump 4 out that knocked the stuffing out of him. I think he travelled well in that Grade 1 and wouldn’t be surprised if he performed a lot better here. 100/1 is easily worth a shot.
1 Point EW 100/1 352/hils/boyles/betfair

3:35 Warwick
I’ve been looking at this race all week without really coming down on the side of anything. I’m now getting interested in Cogry here at a half decent price. He has a superb record around here and although he jumped poor enough in the Hennessey this race is far more his level. His win at Cheltenham was really good and any repeat of that form even with the extra few pounds would put him right in the firing line. We’ll have a small go at 11/1
1 Point win 11/1 Generally

3:00 Gowran
I’m afraid I can’t resist the 5 place special with Paddy Power for this race. Thunder and Roses is the ideal horse to exploit this offer. He is on nice mark here is proven over the trip and ground and ran a reasonable race in this last year, in what looked a stronger race. Carrying 10:04 in this after a relatively light season so far should really put him in the mix here and a repeat of his very decent performance in the Paddy Power Chase should be enough.
1 Point EW 5 places Paddy 28/1

I’m also going with a win bet just in case on Wounded Warrior. I had a fair amount of confidence in him last year and he ran a decent race. He is down a huge amount in the weight after a poor run of form, but has ever so slightly improved in his last couple of races. 33/1 is worth a dart carrying only 9:06 around here.

1 Point win 33/1 Generally Wounded Warrior.

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Fair play on the selection but come off it like you went on a tour to get your point e/w on.

Ha, there is only 2 shops in kilkenny and i had small enough EW bet on each in each shop.

I only put up 1 point because as the price is only available with 1 bookmaker i cant put up 3 points EW or anything else as not everyone could get on a bigger bet when its only available in 1 place.. You can read from my explanation that i was fairly confident in Thunder but i wont go putting up bigger bets when its not generally available.