LongshotValue 40 bets 1 year

Nulty

I'm surprised your not pulling into Western Boy at 33s. Don't fancy it?

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

I'm surprised your not pulling into Western Boy at 33s. Don't fancy it?

I was away this weekend has decent chance but price missed.


5:15


Felix Mendersson has always been a bit of a disappointing horse but I saw a lot of promise in his 3rd at the Curragh in May and 3rd in what could be a very decent Maiden Hurdle 2 months ago. I think the step up on the flat could really suit him and wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was to improve here at a huge price. Ill have to go for a small saver on Western Boy, who is well capable here is on a going day. I was away this weekend so have missed the good EW price.


1 Point EW 50/1 Felix Mendersson 5 places generally
1 Point win 20/1 Western Boy

longshotvalue

Newmarket 3:35
I think Ryan Moore has got in wrong here as i really fancied September on decent ground here. With Happily gone I’m even more confident. September has been bogged down last twice on soft ground and if she can repeat the turn of foot in her first 2 runs she’ll be hard to stop. I make her a 3/1 shot here and 5/1 is far too big.
3 Points win 5/1 365/lads/coral/black

Slattsy

Awful ride

longshotvalue

Slattsy wrote: »

Awful ride

I think he was just unlucky. Any gap at all any time in the last 2 furlongs and she wins easy. Got blocked too many times to count..

The remote is lodged in the screen as we speak..:rolleyes:

by far the best horse. Gutted

Pinesky

Slattsy wrote: »

Awful ride

WIhen your luck is out its definitely out

razorhead

aidankkk wrote: »

Newmarket 3:35
I think Ryan Moore has got in wrong here as i really fancied September on decent ground here. With Happily gone I’m even more confident. September has been bogged down last twice on soft ground and if she can repeat the turn of foot in her first 2 runs she’ll be hard to stop. I make her a 3/1 shot here and 5/1 is far too big.
3 Points win 5/1 365/lads/coral/black

Unlucky Aidan,just needed one of them gaps to open up

longshotvalue

3:00 Newmarket
The easiest pick of the day is a hug price. Mendelssohn clearly didn’t enjoy it last time out and I think he will be far more at home here on fast ground. His previous win was decent despite being very green and I fully expect him to step up significantly here . 80/1 is just silly
1 Point EW 80/1 365 ¼ place paddy/betfair/888/vc 1/5 place
3:40 Newmarket
Star Rider likes this track, ran well in this last year despite being in the wrong position all the way and again ran well from a poor position at Ascot this year all off higher marks than today. If he were mine today would be the day with all those factors. He has been poor his last 2 starts but that was on softer ground and my guess is he has 1 target this year.66/1 is huge with 7 places. If it wasn’t for the draw in another county id be really letting loose here.
1.5 Points EW 66/1 7 places Paddy/Betfair 66/1 6 places generally
Digeanta ran a great race for us at Galway at a big price and is always competitive in these races. He has had a break since 2 poorer runs over shorter trips in August and im fairly sure he will be a fair bt better today.40/1 looks value
1 Point EW 40/1 8 places sky/hills 7 places paddy/betfair
York 3:15
Today could be the day for Growl, he has been as good as every this year on top class races and a a mark of 105 with a 5 lbs claimer on is going to put him right in the mix here. 20/1 is just huge for what looks one the most likely winners and a 10/1 shot.
2 Points win 20/1 generally

Peintre Celebre

I already backed three of those four

Justin10

Cmon Growl.. Today has to be the day.

elbyrneo

Great run from Mendelssohn. Great tip. Almost looked like challenging the winner for a second....

culline

elbyrneo wrote: »

Great run from Mendelssohn. Great tip. Almost looked like challenging the winner for a second....

A great shout. Was 8.2 on BF 4 places!

diomed

20 at 120s Rolling Maul in the Cesarewitch for an interest.

tryfix

elbyrneo wrote: »

Great run from Mendelssohn. Great tip. Almost looked like challenging the winner for a second....

Hah, I backed him the last day when he totally flopped behind Seahenge. Thought it'd be stretching things a bit too much to expect him to bounce back in a race as big as this.

longshotvalue

6:30 Caulfield Cup

I’ve been having a look at Sir Isaac Newtons runs down here and most of them have been over too short a trip. He looks to be improving all the time and ran well in this last year after pulling way to hard all the way. He was a better horse that the favourite here Johannes Vermeer and my gut is he will run a lot better here than his huge price indicates.


1 Point EW 50/1 5 places sky/fred

longshotvalue

1:25 Ascot
It appears to me that the 3yo’s in this might have the upper hand apart from the favourite. Mount Moriah caught the eye as a potential improver stepped up in trip in the Irish Ledger and he is a huge price here because he wasn’t suited by the drop back in trip last time in a race that turned into ta sprint. He has also performed on soft ground and on form there may not be much between him and Desert Skyline so an extra zero on the price is always welcome. A 3 figure price is the icing on the cake.
1 Point EW 100/1 ¼ 365 100/1 1/5th sporting/vc
2:00 Ascot
Washington Dc has been as good as ever this year and when I look at it he has performed on soft ground before. He is the sort of horse that needs thing to go his way but as this race will be run at a mental pace it should really suit him 100/1 is more than double his real price here.
2 Points EW 100/1 Generally
2:40 Ascot
The French have a strong hand here but I fancy the outsider of their runners here. The Juliet Rose has won on soft/heavy has had a very light season and wasn’t far behind Bateel on her first run this year. This end of season race on soft ground could well be a great opportunity for her at a big price.
2 Points win 20/1 365/sporting/betfair/paddy
3:15
I’m afraid I can’t resist old habits and despite the soft ground I just can’t resist a small EW bet on Lancaster Bomber here. The straight at Ascot is one of the best draining courses around and with high winds forecast, it’s worth a small risk just in case I’ve my head in my hands at the finish and am not on.
1 Point EW 80/1 ¼ Place 365 1/5th hills/betfair/paddy/stan

longshotvalue

3:50
Cliffs of Moher has been my pick for this all week and now he is a bigger price than I expected at 11/1. He will be suited by the stiffer test here and for me was the big eye catcher in the Irish Version.
2 Points win 11/1 365/lads/coral
4:30 Ascot
I’m going to go with a couple here at huge price that have form on soft. Gabriel has been running well this year and looks to have a very high chance of getting in the 5 here as he is super consistent and of a reasonable mark. In addition Eddystone Rock’s best ever run was on soft ground in Ireland when really hacking up giving a very good horse weight. He also was a bit of an eye catcher last time out in the Cambridgeshire when getting going far too late to finish well.
1 Point EW Gabriel 40/1 5 places ¼ 365/lads
1 Point EW Eddystone Rock 40/1 5 places ¼ 365 1/5th generally

longshotvalue

Deck I thought we had a real shot there . He'll never be 100/1 again :-(

longshotvalue

Dundalk 7:30
Pocketfullofdreams has been bogged down on soft ground all of the 2nd half of this year. I think she will get back to form on this surface and 33/1 is a big price for a horse with decent form. She could well go of in front and stay at this trip.
1P oint EW 33/1 4 places lads/coral 3 places elsewhere

longshotvalue

Doncaster 3:25
The Aidan O’Brien trio look to be in the complete wrong order to me. I think Seahenge is the best of these on this year’s form and he hasn’t had the run of the race in his last 2 runs but has still performed to a level above anything else here. My guess is he will improve again here and this mile will really suit him. AS I have him at a 4 – 6/1 shot the currently available 12/1 is a huge bargain and we won’t be missing that. When I look through the form Coat of Arms isn’t very far behind any of these and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him take a hand in the finish here at a 3 figure price. Don’t get me wrong he is probably a 50/1 shot but 100/1 he isn’t for steadily improving 2yo on good ground
3 Points win 12/1 Seahenge Generally
1 Point EW Coat of Arms 100/1 ¼ place 365 1/5th elsewhere

Newbury 2:15
Across the stars is a bit of a forgotten horse here. He has form on soft and is a big price here purely because of a poor run latest, which was probably too close to a very good run at Chester. He has the form in the book to go close here and that Chester run has worked out well. He should be staying on here and 22/1 is very big, I’d have him near half that.
2 Points win 22/1 365/lads/coral and others

longshotvalue

Doncaster 4:00

Orion’s Bow was in the process of improving again this year up to Ascot in the summer. He put in 3 poor runs and then showed a little bit more last time out. If that signals a return to form at all he will be right there of this mark. 25/1 is worth the risk

2 Points EW 25/1 ¼ place generally

robbiezero

What ya think of Astracad today in the 1.50 in Aintree. Think you picked him a few times in the past?

longshotvalue

1:50 Aintree
Cloudy too ran well enough in a couple of these races last year and I think we can be fairly sure that today has been the plan for early this year. HE had a spin over hurdles lately and should be competitive of this mark. 16/1 looks a bit of value for a classy horse that may not be finished yet. There is a negative in that most of his form is on soft ground
1 Point win 16/1 generally
2:45 Wincanton
Mosspark has a good record fresh is a certainty to stay the trip and looks a long way overpriced here at 25/1. He is a consistent horse with good form in the book.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally

longshotvalue

10:50 Delmar
Beckford’s best run was in the Phoenix Stakes on good/firm and I think he will be really suited by this race. He has a decent draw and 14/1 is big for a group 1 performer here.
1 Point win 14/1 lads/hills/coral

longshotvalue

3:00 Ascot
Clayton catches the eye here on a potentially god mark here. He is a 100 horse on the flat and poor jumping has him down on a mark of 122 over hurdles. He has a good record fresh and if his jumping has been improved over the summer he can get involved here. 25/1 is worth the risk
1 Point win 25/1 lads/hills 22/1 boyles/coral
Ascot 3:35
The Young Master looks a bit of a forgotten horse here. He has some decent runs fresh and is a course and distance winner of a higher mark here. Carrying less than 11 stone here he will be right in the firing line if he is back to form after the break. Last year wasn’t great hence both the mark and price but 25/1 is a big price for horse that had loads of potential and is still young.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally
Down Royal 2:30
Once again laziness has cost me one of the value bets of the year. Outlander was 25/1 yesterday for this and I really thought that was huge but I’m guilty of waiting for a w/o fav price this morning and now he is 16/1 at best. I’ll still have a small win bet at that price on the horse with the best form in this race. He was poor enough on his first run this year but if he improves for that today has surly been his target
1 Point win 16/1 365/sporting/fred/tote

Wetherby 3:15
Cue Card just wins this if he is anywhere near his best but for a value pick I like the look of Shantou Flyer. If the big 2 aren’t on top form here there isn’t much between him and the rest and he will improve for the step up in trip here. He likes soft ground and ran his best race ever first time out last year at Cheltenham. 33/1 is a huge price.
1 Point win 33/1 365/paddy 28/1 generally

pollocks

Well done Aidan some picking

sdoc13

Great Shout Aidan. Well done.

blindside88

Well done, I've done them in a lucky 15 and been greedy with a small accum

longshotvalue

Del Mar 7:37
Washington DC looks to be in the process of running a good race last time till he got sandwiched late on. This race could really suit him. He will need the luck in running but I think Lady Aurelia could setup the race for him to get involved. She seems impossible to beat here but its very short for a race that requires a silly amount of luck. I’m going to go for a couple of tiny tricasts here at huge prices as well
1 Point EW 25/1 betfair/paddy/boyles/fred
BET365 Tricast 1 Lady 2 Washington 3 Marsha ½ Point 74
BET365 Tricast 1 Lady 2 Marsha 3 Washington ½ Point 52

Del Mar 9:00
Nezwahh has had a nice light season could be a lot better on this ground and my guess is she will improve a huge amount for her last run. 20/1 is too big.
1 Point win 20/1 Paddy/Betfair
Del Mar 10:19
When In Rome and all that, I fancy Ribchester, Lancaster Bomber and Zelzal here so I’m going for a few tricasts at huge prices for fun. 1.5 points total
¼ Point win Tricast 365 Rib/Lanc/Zel 255
¼ Point win Tricast 365 Rib/Zel/Lan 234
¼ Point win Tricast 365 Zel/Lan/Zel 407
¼ Point win Tricast 365 zel/rib/lan 304
¼ Point win Tricast 265 Lan/Zel/Rib 437
¼ Point win Tricast 265 Lan/rib/zel 352

Del Mar 22/58
Us Navy Flag could well be out of sight here from stall 1 and 9/1 seems very big. He has had a busy season but has only improved with each run.
2 Points win 9/1 betfair/paddy/888

longshotvalue

3:15 Cork
Rogue Angel is always going to need him first run and as first runs go I’d be very happy with this year’s one in the Kerry National. He led turning in and just got tired which is understandable. This race doesn’t look as strong and he could be very difficult to get him out of the 4 here of a very workable mark.
2 Points EW 33/1 4 places paddy/fred/betfair/boyles