LongshotValue 40 bets 1 year

longshotvalue

I'm going to try and be far more selective for about a year to see what happens. Its hard for anyone to follow 3-400 a year, which i have been doing for years at a decent ROI. Hopefully being more selective will work just as well, with the advantage that ill have an actual bet on all of these.

longshotvalue

York 2:25

I can’t get my eyes of Sheikzayedroad here. He looks to have a superb chance at what looks a big price. He meets nothing here that is of Group1 class and although he wasn’t as good this year in his 2 runs after Mayden, as he was last year, he tried to do too much too soon in following Big Orange last time out. The fav look a fair bit overrated to me and almost everything else has fairly big question marks. St Michel could improve but he is in here on level weights and was fairly soundly beaten by my selection last year getting a stone.

In Meyden Sheikzayedroad ran a superb race in the Gold Cup not really getting any luck. I’d be as sure as I can be that he will improve here as he really kicked on last year towards the end of the year with 2 very good Group 2 wins.

He actually seems the most likely winner and 8/1 is huge.

3 Points win 8/1 365/fred/paddy/tote/betfair

longshotvalue

York 3:00

I’ve been looking at Aeolus for this and dithering about putting him up, with my new found idea of putting up far less horses than before. He just looks like a horse that is in top form at the moment and although on the face of it he looks to have to make up about 7lbs to get seriously involved, he has in the past been of a mark that would be very competitive here. He was superb in the Stewards Cup and that race is close enough to this level to make it a strong possibility that he can find the improvement. He was also a big eye catcher on his previous run. 33/1 with 4 places looks great value . Bet365 are the best as they has 4 places and ¼ odds.

1.5 Points EW 33/1 4 places 365/paddy/betfair

Peintre Celebre

Would you say Dartmouth has fairly big question marks?

vandriver

Subscribed,and a fresh new betting account opened just for you !

longshotvalue

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Would you say Dartmouth has fairly big question marks?

Not as many as some of the others. but i suppose i think he might be overrated and has to give 3lbs to the others. He also hasn't run over this trip before, and was carried over the line on his first run this year which may not have been that great in retrospect. He is also 4/1 giving 3lbs and rated the same.. If i was pricing it up i would have Sheik around the same price as Dartmouth ahead of Dal Harraild and Thomas Hobson, but i'm a lot more wrong that right so here's hoping.

longshotvalue

Curragh 4:20
Dunkum Diamond is a horse I was following for a while earlier this year thinking he would pop up at a big price at some stage this year. He has shown improved form on his last 2 runs and I’d have to think he will run his best race in Ireland this year today. He is a stone below his very consistent uk form and has been travelling much better in his last few races. In Galway he was outside the whole way around and did well to get anywhere near there. He travelled well here last time out to be second in a decent race without a 5lbs claimer on and that run with a bit of improvement will put him close enough here to make 40/1 enticing.
1 Point EW 40/1 5 places Ladbrokes / Coral 33/1 6 places Sky

longshotvalue

2:25 Haydock Sprint Cup

This is as easy a pick as I’ve had in a while. The Tin Man is a dual Group 1 winner over 6 furlongs, has form on soft and was 2nd in this last year when he was slow away. He is a better horse than Brando and is more than twice the price. He does have a poor run last time out to forgive but that is always the way in sprints. 8/1 is huge he is a 9/2 shot here. The fav could struggle on this ground

3 Points win 8/1 Fred/Paddy/VC/tote/boyles/betfair

aidankkk

aidankkk wrote: »

2:25 Haydock Sprint Cup

This is as easy a pick as I’ve had in a while. The Tin Man is a dual Group 1 winner over 6 furlongs, has form on soft and was 2nd in this last year when he was slow away. He is a better horse than Brando and is more than twice the price. He does have a poor run last time out to forgive but that is always the way in sprints. 8/1 is huge he is a 9/2 shot here. The fav could struggle on this ground

3 Points win 8/1 Fred/Paddy/VC/tote/boyles/betfair

Alex Hammond has put the mockers on this one

longshotvalue

TheTorment wrote: »

Alex Hammond has put the mockers on this one

Well even she can pick a winner today

longshotvalue

6:45 Leopardstown


The Grey Gatsby moved to Dermot Weld and has been caught up in a stable hugely out of form since. I thought he traveled well last time until he ran out of puff over 12 furlongs. This has always been his trip and he has landed here with decent ground and at a huge price in the worst edition of this race ever run. 66/1 is easily worth the risk , especially now the stable has come back to form.


1.5 Points EW 66/1 Bet365 1/4 Place 66/1 1/5th elsewhere

James Bond Junior

Nice one Aidan, thanks.

longshotvalue

4:50 Irish Ledger
I don’t think there is much between Torcedor/Wicklow Brave and Twilight Pavement and with that in mind the 40/1 about Twilight Pavement looks a good 25% too big. He also appears better on softer ground and earlier this year he lost by 5lengths to Torcedor giving him 6 lbs when he got away a bit too easy turning for home. That run puts them very close on form 40/1 is too big

1 Point EW 40/1 ¼ Bet365 40/1 1/5th elsewhere.

3:05 Leop

I just can’t resist a 3 figure price that has any shout at all and I’m going to go with a small bet here on Pious Alexander. She should have no chance here on ratings but has caught the eye twice without any luck in decent races and if she gets a rune here I think she can get involved at an outrageous price.

1 Point EW 150/1 Stars/unibet/32/888 100/1 Elsewhere

longshotvalue

So much for reducing my bets.

3:35 Doncaster
When the ground was drying out I felt that Douglas MacArthur was one of the bets of the year at 50/1. I’m afraid the softer ground has tempered that confidence a fair bit. He is still a decent bet at that price but on good ground he looked a certainty to be in the first 4 here. He has better form and is certainly a far better horse than some that are less than half his price. He has also looked a possible stayer on a few occasions once he is not haring off in front. 50/1 with 4 places on paddy/betfair is still massive as I have him near a 20/1 shot at most
3 Points EW 50/1 4 Places Paddy/Betfair 40/1 4 Places Sky
3:00 Doncaster
Seahenge looked like a horse that had no idea he was supposed to speed up and the end last time out behind Eagle Eye. He wasn’t really forced to in a reasonably tender looking ride and I think he may well have learned from that and 16/1 is just too big.
1 Point win 16/1 vc/paddy/boyle/betfair
2:25
Peace Envoy is a horse I’ve liked from last year and despite 2 poor runs in top class races lately on firm ground I think he could well be better here on softer ground. He has plenty of form in the book that makes him interesting and if he is ready to rune here after a break he is a classy horse to be up to 28/1
1 Point win 25/1 Generally 28/1 sporting/betfair
Doncaster 1:30
Eastern Impact is on a decent mark here and I’m always willing to forgive sprinters a bad run or two. He could well be the classiest runner in this race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a resurgence here at a big looking 25/1
1 Point win 25/1 vc/uni/32/black/888/betfair

Stheno

Seahenge won thanks Aidan

longshotvalue

Newbury 3:25

First Flight is just far too consistent over this trip and conditions to be a 40/1 shot here. He is cast iron to be involved in the finish and looks about a 3/1 shot to be placed at best. Mosse is one of the best jockeys around and was 2nd on his earlier on this year. He will give us a run for our money. I think given his profile the extra place is worth a drop in win price.


1 Point EW 40/1 5 places Hills 33/1 5 places sky/paddy/lads and others

longshotvalue

Newmarket 3:10

Agent Murphy is taking a step up in trip which is what he needs judging by his form a few years ago. If he gets held up here and can improve again here as he has been doing in his runs this year he can get involved. There is a slight risk that he may be getting ready for a big run in the main race is a few weeks’ time but at 25/1 he is worth the risk as the class horse of the race of a workable mark.


1 Point win 25/1 Generally

Newbury 4:00

Muthmir is a Group 1 performer and when I look at this race he just wins most of the time. There will be a mad pace with multiple front runners and that should set it up perfectly for him here. Apart from his last run he has been on top form this year and is really about a 3/1 shot here so 6/1 is great value.


I’m just going to have a small just in case bet on Just Glamorous at a huge price. He has not been staying in his races this year and should be getting fitter with each race. One of these days he will stay out there and cause a shock. 80/1 is worth the risk


2 Points win 6/1 Muthmir Generally
½ Point win 80/1 Just Glamorous Generally

longshotvalue

Newbury 2:15

There is nothing between My Dream Boat and the fav Desert Encounter on form and my guess is todays trip will be right up My Dream Boats’ alley. Even on this year’s form he is one of the most likely winners here and he has some top class form on good ground. He should be certainly 3rd fav here and 12/1 is way too big he will go of around 7/1. If he settles at all he can pick of most of these.


2 Points win 12/1 365/hill/lads/coral

longshotvalue

3:35 Newmarket
Ive had Battle of Marathon in mind for this at a huge price for a while and with the ground now soft he really has everything in his favor. Considering he was 5th in last years Royal Hunt Cup of a mark of 110 on soft ground and if effectively 20 lbs lower now with the aid of a 7lbs claimer with a good record for this trainer, 66/1 with 6 places looks very big. The trainer is in decent form of late. He was also 3rd in last years Lincoln of 5 lbs lower again on soft ground. In fairness a lot of luck in needed here but 66/1 is just massive.
2.5 Points EW 66/1 6 places Paddy/Betfair

sword1

Paddy are back to 50/1, they must be following.

TotalReality

W.Hill offering 8 places 1/5 odds at 40/1

longshotvalue

New 2:55
Declarationofpeace is getting another shot from me here after an improved performance last time out. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him give his best performance of the season here and that makes the 66/1 great value. He had a bit too much to do last time out but it’s possible that was a cautious run after him bombing out at Ascot.
1 Point EW 66/1 365 ¼ place 1/5th elsewhere

longshotvalue

3:15 Haydock
Going through this field its possible Rene Mathis has the best soft ground form on offer. He will certainly be staying on at the finish here having won a big handicap on soft over 7 furlongs in the past. His last run was impressive and although he has been on a break since he is running of a workable mark here. He could be very difficult to kick out of the 5 here
2 Points EW 28/1 5 places paddy/Betfair

longshotvalue

Ripon 3:45
Right Touch disappointed last time out after being backed. He has a very good record around here and is now on a very nice mark. He won’t the far away in the finish here. 20/1 is great value
1 Point win 20/1 Generally

finglashoop

Put the 4 in a small e/w L15

longshotvalue

finglashoop wrote: »

Put the 4 in a small e/w L15

That's what I ended up doing myself . Paddy with the extra places and 3 x 1 winner is great value . They only have to win now

longshotvalue

Haydock 2:40
Kinglami’s record on soft/heavy ground is exceptional. He has never done anything really when it hasn’t been soft and of bottom weight here with plenty of bookies going 4 places the 14 runners 28/1 is starting to look very big. His second last run was very good really. We have his last run to forgive but there would have to be some negative for a horse of that price.
1.5 Points EW 28/1 4 places lads/paddy//betfair/coral

longshotvalue

3:05 Arc
Not a lot of time for explanations but Silverwave has a good record around here and there is nothing between any of these French horses. This race needs a huge amount of luck on the ground and around here and I’d prefer to be on a 200/1 shot that is a 66/1 shot than any of the lower priced horses. He actually appears to be better than ever this year and his last run can be ignored and he will be prepared for today. My gut feeling is Enable and Order of saint George and Capri will fight out the finish. Im also going to go for a small win saver on Satono Diamond as he still has prospected of beign a top class horse and 50/1 is value
2 Points EW Silverwave 4 places 365 200/1 ¼ Place
1 Point win 50/1 Satono Diamond Generally

longshotvalue

4:35 Chantilly
Duke of Firenze goes on any ground but won’t be at all inconvenienced with the soft ground here. He was great in this race last year in 6th without getting a decent run through and I think he is capable of outrunning his odds here. 100/1 with 4 places is worth a shot.
1 Point EW 100/1 4 places Paddy/Betfair 80/1 4 places sky/boyles

longshotvalue

Ascot 3:00

I'm not convinced at all by the Sprint cup form and altough the favs form stands out he looks too short here at the weights . Magical Memory was poor in that race but if we ignore that he really should go close here . 8/1 looks really big for a group 1 class horse here.

2 points win 8/1 generally

longshotvalue

Newmarket 2:40

Qemah looks the best in this race. Things haven't really worked out fir her this year but I think she can come good today at a decent price. 7/1 is certainly value and I expect her to go off around 9/2 .

2 points win 7/1 generally

Nulty

I'm surprised your not pulling into Western Boy at 33s. Don't fancy it?

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

I'm surprised your not pulling into Western Boy at 33s. Don't fancy it?

I was away this weekend has decent chance but price missed.


5:15


Felix Mendersson has always been a bit of a disappointing horse but I saw a lot of promise in his 3rd at the Curragh in May and 3rd in what could be a very decent Maiden Hurdle 2 months ago. I think the step up on the flat could really suit him and wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was to improve here at a huge price. Ill have to go for a small saver on Western Boy, who is well capable here is on a going day. I was away this weekend so have missed the good EW price.


1 Point EW 50/1 Felix Mendersson 5 places generally
1 Point win 20/1 Western Boy

longshotvalue

Newmarket 3:35
I think Ryan Moore has got in wrong here as i really fancied September on decent ground here. With Happily gone I’m even more confident. September has been bogged down last twice on soft ground and if she can repeat the turn of foot in her first 2 runs she’ll be hard to stop. I make her a 3/1 shot here and 5/1 is far too big.
3 Points win 5/1 365/lads/coral/black

Slattsy

Awful ride

longshotvalue

Slattsy wrote: »

Awful ride

I think he was just unlucky. Any gap at all any time in the last 2 furlongs and she wins easy. Got blocked too many times to count..

The remote is lodged in the screen as we speak..:rolleyes:

by far the best horse. Gutted

Pinesky

Slattsy wrote: »

Awful ride

WIhen your luck is out its definitely out

razorhead

aidankkk wrote: »

Newmarket 3:35
I think Ryan Moore has got in wrong here as i really fancied September on decent ground here. With Happily gone I’m even more confident. September has been bogged down last twice on soft ground and if she can repeat the turn of foot in her first 2 runs she’ll be hard to stop. I make her a 3/1 shot here and 5/1 is far too big.
3 Points win 5/1 365/lads/coral/black

Unlucky Aidan,just needed one of them gaps to open up

longshotvalue

3:00 Newmarket
The easiest pick of the day is a hug price. Mendelssohn clearly didn’t enjoy it last time out and I think he will be far more at home here on fast ground. His previous win was decent despite being very green and I fully expect him to step up significantly here . 80/1 is just silly
1 Point EW 80/1 365 ¼ place paddy/betfair/888/vc 1/5 place
3:40 Newmarket
Star Rider likes this track, ran well in this last year despite being in the wrong position all the way and again ran well from a poor position at Ascot this year all off higher marks than today. If he were mine today would be the day with all those factors. He has been poor his last 2 starts but that was on softer ground and my guess is he has 1 target this year.66/1 is huge with 7 places. If it wasn’t for the draw in another county id be really letting loose here.
1.5 Points EW 66/1 7 places Paddy/Betfair 66/1 6 places generally
Digeanta ran a great race for us at Galway at a big price and is always competitive in these races. He has had a break since 2 poorer runs over shorter trips in August and im fairly sure he will be a fair bt better today.40/1 looks value
1 Point EW 40/1 8 places sky/hills 7 places paddy/betfair
York 3:15
Today could be the day for Growl, he has been as good as every this year on top class races and a a mark of 105 with a 5 lbs claimer on is going to put him right in the mix here. 20/1 is just huge for what looks one the most likely winners and a 10/1 shot.
2 Points win 20/1 generally

Peintre Celebre

I already backed three of those four

Justin10

Cmon Growl.. Today has to be the day.

elbyrneo

Great run from Mendelssohn. Great tip. Almost looked like challenging the winner for a second....

culline

elbyrneo wrote: »

Great run from Mendelssohn. Great tip. Almost looked like challenging the winner for a second....

A great shout. Was 8.2 on BF 4 places!

diomed

20 at 120s Rolling Maul in the Cesarewitch for an interest.

tryfix

elbyrneo wrote: »

Great run from Mendelssohn. Great tip. Almost looked like challenging the winner for a second....

Hah, I backed him the last day when he totally flopped behind Seahenge. Thought it'd be stretching things a bit too much to expect him to bounce back in a race as big as this.

longshotvalue

6:30 Caulfield Cup

I’ve been having a look at Sir Isaac Newtons runs down here and most of them have been over too short a trip. He looks to be improving all the time and ran well in this last year after pulling way to hard all the way. He was a better horse that the favourite here Johannes Vermeer and my gut is he will run a lot better here than his huge price indicates.


1 Point EW 50/1 5 places sky/fred

longshotvalue

1:25 Ascot
It appears to me that the 3yo’s in this might have the upper hand apart from the favourite. Mount Moriah caught the eye as a potential improver stepped up in trip in the Irish Ledger and he is a huge price here because he wasn’t suited by the drop back in trip last time in a race that turned into ta sprint. He has also performed on soft ground and on form there may not be much between him and Desert Skyline so an extra zero on the price is always welcome. A 3 figure price is the icing on the cake.
1 Point EW 100/1 ¼ 365 100/1 1/5th sporting/vc
2:00 Ascot
Washington Dc has been as good as ever this year and when I look at it he has performed on soft ground before. He is the sort of horse that needs thing to go his way but as this race will be run at a mental pace it should really suit him 100/1 is more than double his real price here.
2 Points EW 100/1 Generally
2:40 Ascot
The French have a strong hand here but I fancy the outsider of their runners here. The Juliet Rose has won on soft/heavy has had a very light season and wasn’t far behind Bateel on her first run this year. This end of season race on soft ground could well be a great opportunity for her at a big price.
2 Points win 20/1 365/sporting/betfair/paddy
3:15
I’m afraid I can’t resist old habits and despite the soft ground I just can’t resist a small EW bet on Lancaster Bomber here. The straight at Ascot is one of the best draining courses around and with high winds forecast, it’s worth a small risk just in case I’ve my head in my hands at the finish and am not on.
1 Point EW 80/1 ¼ Place 365 1/5th hills/betfair/paddy/stan

longshotvalue

3:50
Cliffs of Moher has been my pick for this all week and now he is a bigger price than I expected at 11/1. He will be suited by the stiffer test here and for me was the big eye catcher in the Irish Version.
2 Points win 11/1 365/lads/coral
4:30 Ascot
I’m going to go with a couple here at huge price that have form on soft. Gabriel has been running well this year and looks to have a very high chance of getting in the 5 here as he is super consistent and of a reasonable mark. In addition Eddystone Rock’s best ever run was on soft ground in Ireland when really hacking up giving a very good horse weight. He also was a bit of an eye catcher last time out in the Cambridgeshire when getting going far too late to finish well.
1 Point EW Gabriel 40/1 5 places ¼ 365/lads
1 Point EW Eddystone Rock 40/1 5 places ¼ 365 1/5th generally

longshotvalue

Deck I thought we had a real shot there . He'll never be 100/1 again :-(

longshotvalue

Dundalk 7:30
Pocketfullofdreams has been bogged down on soft ground all of the 2nd half of this year. I think she will get back to form on this surface and 33/1 is a big price for a horse with decent form. She could well go of in front and stay at this trip.
1P oint EW 33/1 4 places lads/coral 3 places elsewhere

longshotvalue

Doncaster 3:25
The Aidan O’Brien trio look to be in the complete wrong order to me. I think Seahenge is the best of these on this year’s form and he hasn’t had the run of the race in his last 2 runs but has still performed to a level above anything else here. My guess is he will improve again here and this mile will really suit him. AS I have him at a 4 – 6/1 shot the currently available 12/1 is a huge bargain and we won’t be missing that. When I look through the form Coat of Arms isn’t very far behind any of these and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him take a hand in the finish here at a 3 figure price. Don’t get me wrong he is probably a 50/1 shot but 100/1 he isn’t for steadily improving 2yo on good ground
3 Points win 12/1 Seahenge Generally
1 Point EW Coat of Arms 100/1 ¼ place 365 1/5th elsewhere

Newbury 2:15
Across the stars is a bit of a forgotten horse here. He has form on soft and is a big price here purely because of a poor run latest, which was probably too close to a very good run at Chester. He has the form in the book to go close here and that Chester run has worked out well. He should be staying on here and 22/1 is very big, I’d have him near half that.
2 Points win 22/1 365/lads/coral and others