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Winter 2017-18: Discussion
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »You aren't very popular around here :eek: but I think you are being realistic and I would tend to agree with you.
The Atlantic will effortlessly blast away any potential Arctic blocking as a result of the extreme cold pouring off North America. I wouldn't say winter is over but surely us weather watchers in this forum know by now that when this rot sets in it can go on for weeks on end. Any cold spells will be transient.
I have already described why my posts are so like a million times up to now including my very long Winter forecast. I am not being optimistic, in fact usually I'm extremely pessimistic. I was not looking at this Winter being good at all 'til around October or November when I started seeing what the "drivers" could mean for us. The drivers have still not changed, it's just models being their usual selves. As for the extreme cold in North America, it's more towards the central US than the eastern seaboard and isn't expected to last for very long either.
As for this week, I am not minding it. Sure it's very boring but I prefer it over cold and dull. My least favourite kinds of weather are cold and dull as well as cold and wet where the rain is light to moderate or just drizzle.
There is an awful lot of uncertainty regarding Christmas, that I'm focusing on just tomorrow for now because there are so many likely scenarios. For example, just look at the GEFS for the AO, there's a perfect division between the ensembles on predicting a negative and positive AO for the rest of December into the New Year - one of the ensembles going for a negative AO is the OP run of the GFS which shows quite a block developing over the Arctic whilst this stormy weather is going on.
The GFS is still showing this small SW for the end of December and early January though again far from a SSW.
The SOI is reflecting El Nino right now which is strange because the Pacific is firmly in a La Nina setup. If the La Nina continues, we could be heading for a very blocked Spring - if you were to look at Springs that followed Weak La Nina to Weak La Nina Winters historically.
Zonal winds in the tropics are continuing to be weak.
In fact, the only catch I can see right now is the NAO which according to the GEFS is going to be positive for the next 2 weeks.
P.S. that chart from the ECM you posted is far far from the worst case scenario if you ask me.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Cold spells tend to be transient every winter here. Easterlies producing heavy snow for a week are rare here. The pattern we have had up to now is cold zonality alternating with milder periods. The Polar Vortex isn't very strong this year compared to last year, as long as there is a tendency for heights to go into the arctic, the jet will still trend south at times, which opens up the possibility of short cold spells from the north or north west. However if we are being imby about it; this is wanting heavy snow from streamers for the east of Ireland then that's unlikely to happen anytime soon without a SSW eventElmer Blooker wrote: »I wouldn't say winter is over but surely us weather watchers in this forum know by now that when this rot sets in it can go on for weeks on end. Any cold spells will be transient.0 -
Streamers? Who's expecting streamers? Not me anyway.nacho libre wrote: »Cold spells tend to be transient every winter here. Easterlies producing heavy snow for a week are rare here. The pattern we have had up to now is cold zonality alternating with milder periods. The Polar Vortex isn't very strong this year compared to last year, as long as there is a tendency for heights to go into the arctic, the jet will still trend south at times, which opens up the possibility of short cold spells from the north or north west. However if we are being imby about it; this is wanting heavy snow from streamers for the east of Ireland then that's unlikely to happen anytime soon without a SSW event
This will be the seventh mild and dull Christmas in a row, personally I'd be happy with a nice quiet spell of sunny weather with hard overnight frosts over the festive period but even that is too much to expect in what we now call winter!
It might be a little early to say that the PV isn't as strong as last year, we'll know in a week or two.
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