Winter 2017-18: Discussion

Meteorite58

Big change to last week.


https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/942745568367075328

Captain Snow

Kinda how it will play out towards the new year and beyond. Gavs 23rd update. His 24th and last one is on Friday.

M.T. Cranium

Remember I was saying big energy peak around 2-4 January? If we get into this unsettled W-NW flow that seems to be the current preference of the GFS model after Christmas, then that could be quite a strong storm. I've found that with this developing theory, if the circulation pattern is a known quantity then you can use these energy peaks to fine-tune the details. With the pattern incorrect that attempt is of course negated.

So I'm not counting this as a forecast so much as a research project indicator, that's basically how I approach this as a man of leisure (the leisure of not having to report for duty anywhere but here, that is).

The most compelling part of the next 7-10 days globally is the enormous cold outbreak expected in the central to eastern parts of North America. The 480 thickness contour shows up as far south as Minnesota and Wisconsin at some point around 27th, whether that verifies or not, it looks extremely cold almost coast to coast in North America next week. I am getting ready for 20-30 cms of snow here in the next 24-30h.

With that pattern in place, a ridge over Greenland and the western Atlantic is almost guaranteed which is why I think a cold but maritime NW flow seems likely in Ireland over the last week of the year. If a strong vortmax comes around the top of that ridge or breaks through it around 30-31 Dec then look out ... a very strong energy peak timed for 2 Jan.

I would not expect to see any highly accurate details for this on charts before about 25-26 Dec, these energy peaks may show up in a general sense in the resolution of the global models but since they tend to be transient events of about 7-10 days total this is why computer models, no matter how sophisticated, are not going to show these things 20-30 days in advance, but if they are generated from a predictable source then a theoretical forecast could (in theory) do that. So we'll see what happens.

nagdefy

'Twas the week before Christmas and all through the winter thread not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse

I was just looking through the American charts. The pressure is not projected to be 1060mb in a weeks time today, 1045mb but over much of north America.

JCX BXC

Fairly foggy in West Clare this morning, making it seem much darker than usual!

Billcarson

What totally turgid weather we are having at the moment. Dull,damp mild muck,little temp variation day or night. What a wasted week of winter. Boring as hell. Hopefully next week will offer something a bit better at least.

Captain Snow

Billcarson wrote: »

What totally turgid weather we are having at the moment. Dull,damp mild muck,little temp variation day or night. What a wasted week of winter. Boring as hell. Hopefully next week will offer something a bit better at least.

This mild muck is killing me.......:p

Gonzo

Captain Snow wrote: »

This mild muck is killing me.......:p

I am very frustrated with this winter so far. The recent cold spell was a massive disappointment once again in Meath and many other areas with mostly cold rain and bitterly cold. Now we have this mild, drizzly damp muck and the possibility of a very active Atlantic regime setting up once again.

What I really want to see over January and February is a potent easterly even just for a few days, it doesn't have to be on par with 2010 by any means, just something like February 2009 would do very nicely. I would also like another week where we see blue skies, very cold temperatures and frosts persisting in shaded areas all day.

MJohnston

The last few days have just been heavy, dark clouds threatening rain but never quite delivering, little or no sunshine on already shortened days, and boring mildness.

I'm sure Clonmel is happy, but I want the frosty, sunny weather back!

Captain Snow

Sometimes I think its too much to ask mother nature for Winters that are Winters with cold, frost and snow, Springs wet and stormy with the buds of green starting to burst out on the plants, Summers warm with constant blue skys with thunder storms in the evenings and Autumns to show its golden colours with the beginnings of cool fresh mornings.

:rolleyes:

George Sunsnow

Captain Snow wrote: »

Sometimes I think its too much to ask mother nature for Winters that are Winters with cold, frost and snow, Springs wet and stormy with the buds of green starting to burst out on the plants, Summers warm with constant blue skys with thunder storms in the evenings and Autumns to show its golden colours with the beginnings of cool fresh mornings.

:rolleyes:

That’s our climate
Somebody on the side of a hill in Siberia is probably asking the same of warmth in spring

sryanbruen

My feelings towards this Winter so far have been neutral as nothing has been out of the ordinary than what I've expected.

Plus the sudden very active Polar Vortex for the next week is getting downgraded as the models were going very OTT, well the GFS specifically, with it. It is going to be cold zonality which can often be sunny for us here in the east - Winter 2014/15 was a very sunny Winter and it was dominated by cold zonality or northwesterlies. I will be very happy if it comes out like that.

Clonmel1000

MJohnston wrote: »

The last few days have just been heavy, dark clouds threatening rain but never quite delivering, little or no sunshine on already shortened days, and boring mildness.

I'm sure Clonmel is happy, but I want the frosty, sunny weather back!

Not adverse to the sunny frosty weather at all but don’t want snow or travel disruption. Snow was great when I was 12 now it’s an inconvenience. I’m enjoying that it’s dry and mild but obviously the gloomy and dark days not so much. There’s no likes in that I know!!!

mickmackey1

There ya go

squarecircles

The grass is lush and green,Rose buds starting to bloom,patchy sunlight and random fog banks drifting about,felt like an evening in early spring in the early afternoon,very close and sticky.

Meteorite58

Looks like Valentia got the highest temperature of 12.4C today. Got a reading of 12.9C here near Tralee. Foggy/ humid with low cloud all day, quite dense fog this morning. Still 12.2C here.

MidMan25

The weather lately has been the absolute pits. Dull, damp, overly mild and humid for the time of the year. There is no weather I hate more!

Lucreto

I actually preferred the cold damp mess from last week to this mild one. I miss the cold wind and the frost, it's good for clearing the head before and after work.

Hopefully the US cold event is short lived and we don't get stuck with storm after storm after like the last couple of years.

fraxinus1

Mild and damp and foggy. Heavy depressing gloomy winter weather. Feels just as mild at 12pm as it does 12am. Looks like that the severe cold in the USA is going to start whipping up the Atlantic so it’s looking like weeks of mild windy muck. I think we had the snow for this winter well those few who got it had it. I was scolded the other day for suggesting that if the Atlantic dominates for January then we have had it snow wise for this winter... increasingly looking like it. There’s nothing worse than a damp mild Christmas Day and that’s what we will have on monday. Rotten.

JCX BXC

fraxinus1 wrote: »

There’s nothing worse than a damp mild Christmas Day and that’s what we will have on monday. Rotten.

Is it?

Donegal Storm

I don't get the obsession with cold on here at times, the past two weeks were fairly cold by Irish standards, the clear frosty mornings were nice but scraping the windscreen every morning is a pain and we had some right miserable days with heavy rain and biting wind. This week has been largely pleasant, perfect weather for those of us with long journeys to make and great for getting out shopping, nights out, Christmas markets etc. The last thing we need is a repeat of 2010 with half the country missing Christmas with their families

I'm all for a bit of exciting weather but if there's one week all year I'd like bland benign weather its this week

Buffalobill29

Donegal Storm wrote: »

I don't get the obsession with cold on here at times, the past two weeks were fairly cold by Irish standards, the clear frosty mornings were nice but scraping the windscreen every morning is a pain and we had some right miserable days with heavy rain and biting wind. This week has been largely pleasant, perfect weather for those of us with long journeys to make and great for getting out shopping, nights out, Christmas markets etc. The last thing we need is a repeat of 2010 with half the country missing Christmas with their families

I'm all for a bit of exciting weather but if there's one week all year I'd like bland benign weather its this week

You just don't get it!
The vast majority of us (except the bold few) want snow and cold all winter.

Gaoth Laidir

Amazing similarities with the Dublin and Casement conditions at 7 am.

Dub/Casement

Temp: 11.4/11.4
Dewpoint: 9.6/9.6
Pressure; 1032.1/1032.1
Wind: 240 8 m/s / 220 8 m/s
Cloud cover: 7 okta/7 okta
Visibility: 25 km/20 km
Mood: Dank/Dank

Rebelbrowser

JCX BXC wrote: »

Is it?

Christmas day will not be mild. In fact from Christmas day to New Years eve it will be very seasonal.

fryup

so a white xmas is out of the question

so can we get the next best thing..a foggy xmas?

nacho libre

Donegal Storm wrote: »

I don't get the obsession with cold on here at times, the past two weeks were fairly cold by Irish standards, the clear frosty mornings were nice but scraping the windscreen every morning is a pain and we had some right miserable days with heavy rain and biting wind.

Don't listen to him snow:( Most of us want you at anytime.
While you and most others have been tucked up in bed, i have been out scraping my car at 5:30 in the morning and dealing with heavy fog on occasion. Some mornings i would rather not, however when i see the weather we have now, i prefer to be scraping away.... than dealing with this dreary weather. If you wear adequate clothing and drive sensibly there is no reason people can't go out in most parts of this country during cold weather. I would make an exception for upland rural areas where roads can be left untreated, but for the majority of healthy and firm people there is no excuse.

nacho libre

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Mild and damp and foggy. Heavy depressing gloomy winter weather. Feels just as mild at 12pm as it does 12am. Looks like that the severe cold in the USA is going to start whipping up the Atlantic so it’s looking like weeks of mild windy muck. I think we had the snow for this winter well those few who got it had it. I was scolded the other day for suggesting that if the Atlantic dominates for January then we have had it snow wise for this winter... increasingly looking like it. There’s nothing worse than a damp mild Christmas Day and that’s what we will have on monday. Rotten.

:eek:
Can you lend your considerable expertise to Met Eireann, you seemingly have the ability to forsee what they cannot, as they state can't forecast accurately beyond 12 days.

Elmer Blooker

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Looks like that the severe cold in the USA is going to start whipping up the Atlantic so it’s looking like weeks of mild windy muck. I think we had the snow for this winter well those few who got it had it. I was scolded the other day for suggesting that if the Atlantic dominates for January then we have had it snow wise for this winter... increasingly looking like it.

You aren't very popular around here :eek: but I think you are being realistic and I would tend to agree with you.
The Atlantic will effortlessly blast away any potential Arctic blocking as a result of the extreme cold pouring off North America. I wouldn't say winter is over but surely us weather watchers in this forum know by now that when this rot sets in it can go on for weeks on end. Any cold spells will be transient.

Gonzo

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

You aren't very popular around here :eek: but I think you are being realistic and I would tend to agree with you.
The Atlantic will effortlessly blast away any potential Arctic blocking as a result of the extreme cold pouring off North America. I wouldn't say winter is over but surely us weather watchers in this forum know by now that when this rot sets in it can go on for weeks on end. Any cold spells will be transient.

that's what has me worried. Past experience usually shows that when the deep cold over North America hits the Atlantic, it turns the Atlantic on at full power over our area of the world. It doesn't mean weeks on end of mild muck, as short cold Atlantic snaps can happen, but it's usually curtains for a decent easterly to form. Everything still seems all a bit up in the air right now, but I've a feeling any cold spells we do get this winter will be similar to the ones we've already had this year. The west, north and midlands could be the places to be for snowfall this winter.

Donegal Storm

nacho libre wrote: »

Don't listen to him snow:( Most of us want you at anytime.
While you and most others have been tucked up in bed, i have been out scraping my car at 5:30 in the morning and dealing with heavy fog on occasion. Some mornings i would rather not, however when i see the weather we have now, i prefer to be scraping away.... than dealing with this dreary weather. If you wear adequate clothing and drive sensibly there is no reason people can't go out in most parts of this country during cold weather. I would make an exception for upland rural areas where roads can be left untreated, but for the majority of healthy and firm people there is no excuse.

As I said I'm happy to see some interesting weather, I just don't get why 12C and uneventful is so depressing while 5C and uneventful, i.e most of the month so far, is so much better.