Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

Iwasfrozen

swampgas wrote: »

True. But EU cohesion and equal treatment for all members trumps that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/german-industry-cannot-save-britain-from-hard-brexit-warns-merke/

Trumps is for who? Why would the German government give a damn about EU social cohesion and equal treatment for all members.

Their main objective in the EU is to provide a market for their exports. The UK is a large part of that market so trade will stay open no matter what.

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Wes seems to think the eu will be glad to see the back of the UK and Francie seems to think the eu are giving the UK an "Overwhelming f u ".

I don't think the EU are glad to see the back of the UK at all. I do think some members of parliament are very invested in the EU and will seek to make things harder. On top of that I think leaving the EU in the first place will damage the economy.

Brexit seems a bit like our banking guarantee.

FrancieBrady

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

The consensus according to who?

Germany is an exporting country, and exporting countries are reliant on markets to sell their goods. Yes the EU market is important, no one said it isn't. But so is the British market. The third most important in fact.

Are you guys engaging with reality at all?

https://www.ft.com/content/f29b8e10-7296-11e6-bf48-b372cdb1043a

Mr Schweitzer, whose organisation represents 3.5m companies and entrepreneurs, said he was not threatening the UK but that it was clear the economic effects of Brexit would be “negative” for the EU and “very negative” for Britain: “Great Britain will suffer economically. That is not a threat but simply the logical consequence of the process.”

German companies are already under pressure amid the uncertainty surrounding Britain’s exit from the EU, with the DIHK forecasting a 1 per cent decline in German exports to the UK this year and 5 per cent in 2017.

However, although the UK was Germany’s third-largest market, the impact of Brexit would be mitigated by the wide diversification among German companies, Mr Schweitzer said. The average exporter from the Mittelstand — the small and medium-sized companies that form the backbone of Germany’s economy — was active in about 10 countries, he noted.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/21/brexit-untangling-uk-industry-europe-german-manufacturing-single-market-bavaria

“If we were forced to make a choice between access to the British market and preserving the common market in Europe, we would go for the common market,” said Dollendorf.

According a poll published this week by the Allensbach Institute for Public Opinion Research, such views are widely spread not just in Bavaria but throughout Germany. A majority of medium-sized and large companies indicated support for the EU taking a hardline stance against Britain after the referendum, with 56% saying they were in favour of the advantages of EU membership being revoked for the UK.



The study also shows 58% of German business and political leaders surveyed said they believed an exit from the EU would do “massive damage” to the UK economy, while 77% believed the referendum outcome would only have “minor consequences” for the German economy.

Nate--IRL--

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

The consensus according to who?

Germany is an exporting country, and exporting countries are reliant on markets to sell their goods. Yes the EU market is important, no one said it isn't. But so is the British market. The third most important in fact.

Protect access to market of 60m or safeguard existence of market of 500m.

Hmmmm...... hard choice.

Nate

swampgas

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it is a ****ty stick she has picked up, but she is no fool and never shys away from the tough decisions. She also isn't about to let the British finance industry move to Frankfurt.

She knows staying in the single market is important and will do what she can to retain that. She is a Tory remember and they usually do whatever the CBI want them to do.

Indeed. She doesn't have a lot of options though, and she may have to sacrifice some aspirations to achieve others.

She also has to try to maintain party unity, figure out how the get the party re-elected next time round, deal with fallout in NI and Scotland, avoid the economy tanking, among many other problems.

I wouldn't be in her shoes for any money.

Iwasfrozen

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are you guys engaging with reality at all?

https://www.ft.com/content/f29b8e10-7296-11e6-bf48-b372cdb1043a


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/21/brexit-untangling-uk-industry-europe-german-manufacturing-single-market-bavaria

Are you?

Do you think a large powerful country with a large powerful trade deficit like Germany is going to hinder trade with their third largest market through their own inaction?

FrancieBrady

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Are you?

Do you think a large powerful country with a large powerful trade deficit like Germany is going to hinder trade with their third largest market through their own inaction?

Did you read what the 'large powerful countries' chief traders said???

Iwasfrozen

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Protect access to market of 60m or safeguard existence of market of 500m.

Hmmmm...... hard choice.

Nate

It wouldn't be if that was the decision Germany was facing.

swampgas

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Are you?

Do you think a large powerful country with a large powerful trade deficit like Germany is going to hinder trade with their third largest market through their own inaction?

Yes. I think the political cost/benefit analysis would lead to exactly that.

If the EU collapses then German exporters have a whole other set of problems. Dealing with tariffs on cars sales to the UK is far more predictable than the chaos that could emerge in a disintegrating EU.

steddyeddy

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Are you?

Do you think a large powerful country with a large powerful trade deficit like Germany is going to hinder trade with their third largest market through their own inaction?

They would be a lot less powerful out of the biggest single market in the world.

Junkyard Tom

Britain won't be negotiating with German exporters. Britain will be negotiating with the EU.

Christy42

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Are you?

Do you think a large powerful country with a large powerful trade deficit like Germany is going to hinder trade with their third largest market through their own inaction?

Hey the UK is willing to absolutely tank their own economy. Next to that it seems like a small thing for Germany to do.

Iwasfrozen

Christy42 wrote: »

Britain is betting it's entire economy on a deal being done. Germany does not.

Seriously by this logic the UK should demand 1 million euro a year in tributes from Germany for allowing free trade because the German's benefit from it.

Sure this entire argument goes down the drain as quickly as the UK economy when you consider whst the UK will lose if they lose that financial passport but you seem happy enough to ignore that. So should the UK demand a tribute in addition to everything else it wants in these negotiations? What would a fair amount be?

When it's in both countries interests to strike a deal a deal will be struck. The precise details of any deal are ultimately unimportant and won't mark a major change in either country's economy.

I don't automatically give the upper hand to the EU since both parties need each other.

steddyeddy

Germany. like a lot of countries in the EU, value the union because it brings peace. It's not a simple economic benefit.

steddyeddy

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

When it's in both countries interests to strike a deal a deal will be struck. The precise details of any deal are ultimately unimportant and won't mark a major change in either country's economy.

I don't automatically give the upper hand to the EU since both parties need each other.

In trade negotiations the bigger market always is the rule maker.

Iwasfrozen

steddyeddy wrote: »

Germany. like a lot of countries in the EU, value the union because it brings peace. It's not a simple economic benefit.

NATO brings peace.

FrancieBrady

'Wishful thinking' reigning supreme in the last few posts.

tomwaterford

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

NATO brings peace.

To where??

Enzokk

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

My point is not necessarily. That depends on the type of arrangement that the EU want to argue for. My point is that Britain hasn't asked for trade tariffs with the EU and it isn't proposing this. Of course these things will take years to negotiate. An interim agreement could be helpful while these matters are being discussed.

You seem to think that the EU needs to trade with the UK to continue their existence. I feel that a lot of people seem to think this way. While the UK is an important market for the EU, it is not that important for the EU to compromise on freedom of movement.

The EU is also under no obligation to offer a deal to the UK, it is up to the UK to decide what they want from the EU. If they want access to the single market then the EU let the UK know what this will cost. If the UK doesn't want access to the single market then there is not much the EU can do, they don't have to go begging the UK for access to their market as it is smaller than the inter EU trade. Unfortunately the UK trades more with the EU than the EU trades with the UK, so the power doesn't belong to the UK.

Iwasfrozen

Its not a case of either or. Germany can pressure the EU to do a trade deal with the UK and that's what they'll do because it's in their interests ideology be damned.

steddyeddy

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

NATO brings peace.

The EU is more central to European peace than NATO.

You keep speculating what Germany will do when there's no need. We have Merkel herself describing the nature of the negotiations:

But she added a warning on negotiations: “It is going to be rough going I think. It will not be that easy. But what she said today is OK.”

tomwaterford

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Its not a case of either or. Germany can pressure the EU to do a trade deal with the UK and that's what they'll do because it's in their interests ideology be damned.

Belgium can block if it wishes aswell??

steddyeddy

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Its not a case of either or. Germany can pressure the EU to do a trade deal with the UK and that's what they'll do because it's in their interests ideology be damned.

Like they pressured Wallonia to accept the Canada deal?

Christy42

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

When it's in both countries interests to strike a deal a deal will be struck. The precise details of any deal are ultimately unimportant and won't mark a major change in either country's economy.

I don't automatically give the upper hand to the EU since both parties need each other.

If I have to give up 100 euro if we don't make a deal and you will have to give up everything unless we make a deal you can bet I am not giving you a better deal than those trying to contribute to progress I have made.

Especially when others in my group (e
G. Poland have very little to lose by giving up free trade with the UK and will be very annoyed if I just chuck away the bit of the deal they like.

The UK created this problem. Giving up free movement would.cause far more problems than it would solve. Especially when the other side has so much more to lose. May will be vilified for decades to come if she goes through with her stance and I reckon she knows it.

steddyeddy

tomwaterford wrote: »

Belgium can block if it wishes aswell??

Or any of the 27 member states.

Enzokk

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Britain won't be negotiating with German exporters. Britain will be negotiating with the EU.

But the noise from Brexiters were that the German car makers and french cheese and wine makers will ensure that the UK gets access to the single market without any compromises. We have seen that this is not what is being communicated by those who represent these exporters.

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Its not a case of either or. Germany can pressure the EU to do a trade deal with the UK and that's what they'll do because it's in their interests ideology be damned.

Maybe if Germany was reliant on UK trade, but seeing as its not this is just words people say to themselves to feel better about the situation.

steddyeddy

Ireland will have a representative at the negotiating table the BBC reports.

Ireland will have a representative on the European Commission team that will negotiate the terms of the UK's exit from the EU, Enda Kenny has said.
The taoiseach (Irish prime minister) stressed that final decisions will be taken by the European heads of state.
He said it is still unclear if Britain will choose hard or soft Brexit.
Negotiations begin by the end of next March when the prime minister is formally expected to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
On Wednesday 2 November the Irish government will host an all-island forum involving politicians, business and civic leaders to discuss the implications of the UK leaving the European Union.
'Agreed position'
The Taoiseach has also asked all his ministers to have discussions with their Northern Ireland counterparts in preparation for the North-South Ministerial Council meeting on 18 November.
Last week, he said he hoped the Northern Ireland Executive would have an agreed position by the time of that meeting.

solodeogloria

Enzokk wrote: »

Unfortunately the UK trades more with the EU than the EU trades with the UK, so the power doesn't belong to the UK.

Good evening!

I tried to bite my lip, but this isn't true.

The UK trades 44% of its exports with the EU. That figure has decreased in recent years. After Brexit in the long term with new trade deals that could decrease further.

EU trade constitutes 53% of UK imports.

It is a myth that the UK has nothing to bring to the negotiation table. The reality is I can't change the result here, and I voted to stay in. I've got no intention of leaving Britain, therefore I want the best deal.

I have to admit my view of the EU has actually become more negative as I see the petty nonsense coming out of the Commission and the Parliament. I'm confident of a good outcome and I'm confident I can stake my future here in the UK.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

steddyeddy

It's also in Germany's interest to absorb some of the UK's businesses post Brexit.

CrabRevolution

I won't try to predict the future of what happens with Brexit as there's a lot of road to travel.

I do find it funny though that while those who predict that the UK will suffer far more from Brexit are from a wide and varied background on boards and many have no obvious ideological history, those who reckon the UK will strongarm the entirety of Europe into complying with all British demands are the same posters with a long history of fervent loyalism and love of Britain.

Ideology be damned huh?