Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

Enzokk

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I tried to bite my lip, but this isn't true.

The UK trades 44% of its exports with the EU. That figure has decreased in recent years. After Brexit in the long term with new trade deals that could decrease further.

EU trade constitutes 53% of UK imports.

It is a myth that the UK has nothing to bring to the negotiation table. The reality is I can't change the result here, and I voted to stay in. I've got no intention of leaving.

I have to admit my view of the EU has actually become more negative as I see the petty nonsense coming out of the Commission and the Parliament. I'm confident of a good outcome and I'm confident I can stake my future here in the UK.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

No-one said they have nothing to bring to the table, however the assertion that the EU has to make concessions to keep the UK in the single market isn't true either. While the trade is important it isn't the be all and end all for the EU. Take the trade of Germany to the UK out of their numbers and they move from $1.41 trillion to $1.31 trillion. It is a lot of money, but it is not worth giving up the EU for it, in my opinion.

Capt'n Midnight

solodeogloria wrote: »

As for the 350mn figure, it wasn't the best argued point because it is gross contribution. However after Brexit more of the 10 billion that the UK gives the EU will be in Britain's hand.

That £10Bn will go a long way ...


Microsoft: We're hiking UK cloud prices 22%. Stop whining – it's the Brexit

“Starting January 1, 2017 British pounds prices for on-premises enterprise software will increase by 13 per cent and most cloud prices in British pounds will increase by 22 per cent to realign close to euro levels.”

Calina

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

The consensus according to who?

Germany is an exporting country, and exporting countries are reliant on markets to sell their goods. Yes the EU market is important, no one said it isn't. But so is the British market. The third most important in fact.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/brexit-wirtschaftsverbaende-fordern-harte-linie-in-verhandlungen-a-1116362.html

According to representative bodies for German industry.

What have you got? Wishful thinking?

Fratton Fred

Enzokk wrote: »

You seem to think that the EU needs to trade with the UK to continue their existence. I feel that a lot of people seem to think this way. While the UK is an important market for the EU, it is not that important for the EU to compromise on freedom of movement.

So what will it compromise on?

Nate--IRL--

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So what will it compromise on?

It will be interesting to see if it feels it has to, given the relative positions.

The UK is effectively having to negotiate back in.

Nate

Calina

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Are you?

Do you think a large powerful country with a large powerful trade deficit like Germany is going to hinder trade with their third largest market through their own inaction?

Germany has a trade surplus, not a trade deficit.

This is a fundamental error on your part.

R P McMurphy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So what will it compromise on?

Looking at the Swiss negotiations, the EU doesn't look like compromising on its basic principles.

Capt'n Midnight

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Trumps is for who? Why would the German government give a damn about EU social cohesion and equal treatment for all members.

Their main objective in the EU is to provide a market for their exports. The UK is a large part of that market so trade will stay open no matter what.

:eek:

I'm at a loss as how anyone can still think such things.


Car manufacturers, the German group with the most vested interest in selling into the UK, have already said that maintaining an stable EU is more important than a reduced market in the UK.

Even after Brexit the UK will still buy VW's , Audi's , Mercs and Beemers. If you have any doubts on that just look outside. Our VRT rate is higher than WTO tariff rate but people still spend more on prestige brands.


Of course getting a good Brexit deal isn't dependent on just Germany. Spain and France also make more cars than the UK. Czech Republic, Slovakia , Poland, Romania , Hungry and Italy could all do with one less competitor in the lower end of the market. As could Turkey which has a trade deal with the EU. http://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/

Anita Blow

solodeogloria wrote: »

Enzokk wrote: »

Unfortunately the UK trades more with the EU than the EU trades with the UK, so the power doesn't belong to the UK.

Good evening!

I tried to bite my lip, but this isn't true.

The UK trades 44% of its exports with the EU. That figure has decreased in recent years. After Brexit in the long term with new trade deals that could decrease further.

EU trade constitutes 53% of UK imports.

It is a myth that the UK has nothing to bring to the negotiation table. The reality is I can't change the result here, and I voted to stay in. I've got no intention of leaving Britain, therefore I want the best deal.

I have to admit my view of the EU has actually become more negative as I see the petty nonsense coming out of the Commission and the Parliament. I'm confident of a good outcome and I'm confident I can stake my future here in the UK.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

I think you misunderstand the numbers there. Just because 53% of the UK's imports come from the EU doesn't mean that constitutes a similarly large % of the EU's exports. The UK accounts for just 3% of EU exports according to their own statistics. In addition to that, the UK has the 2nd largest negative trade balance for intra-EU trade in the union (after France). IE- It imports a lot more from the EU than it exports to the EU.
The EU has significantly more negotiating power in terms of economics than the UK

Anita Blow

In relation to the posters above saying it's in Germany's interests to strike a free trade deal with the UK post-Brexit. It would similarly be in Germany's & France's interests to not include financial services (like CETA & the SK FTAs) in such agreements. I would imagine the loss of London's financial status would be a far more significant blow to the economy than the gain of a Toyota plant in Sunderland

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it is a ****ty stick she has picked up, but she is no fool and never shys away from the tough decisions. She also isn't about to let the British finance industry move to Frankfurt.

She knows staying in the single market is important and will do what she can to retain that. She is a Tory remember and they usually do whatever the CBI want them to do.

If she is not a fool then why did she give away her leverage to make her position stronger the key interim deal? Why announce the date for invoking article 50 and throw that leverage away? She could have used the uncertainty to raise panic in the EU about disruption to 2019 elections. She threw it away. Now the EU can ask anything they wish. The UK absolutley need that interim deal. That interim deal might be what the UK end up with. A massive blunder.
It looks like she is either foolish or is pandering to the hard Brexit Tories. Same result for the UK negotiations.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So what will it compromise on?

Things that benefit the EU that they can't replace internally. If the UK get scraps out of this then more power to them: Pat their head, throw them a little doggy bone. Scraps is all they will get in the deal but it beats the WTO threat and beggars cant be choosers after all.

Enough of the UK economy will survive to minimize impact to Europe. Financial services will be greatly diminished when the deal is struck in 9 years or so. Banks are preparing to move out already. Theresa May realising that the Financial services industry is irreplacable does not mean she can save it.
Holande said the UK would pay a price.

demfad

Anita Blow wrote: »

In relation to the posters above saying it's in Germany's interests to strike a free trade deal with the UK post-Brexit. It would similarly be in Germany's & France's interests to not include financial services (like CETA & the SK FTAs) in such agreements. I would imagine the loss of London's financial status would be a far more significant blow to the economy than the gain of a Toyota plant in Sunderland

France seem to be taking a particular interest there so maybe that pie has been allocated already.

gerogerigegege

why were people banned?
speaking about mass immigration no doubt?

fernrock

How about IE-Exit.
After all some 40% of out exports are to the UK.
We have already got a taste of how it will be like with the UK gone.
Meetings being held in French -how did the Irish reps manage --Did they depend on our "good" friend Angela to explain as she normally does .
After all Enda takes her words as gospel.

catbear

fernrock wrote: »

How about IE-Exit.
After all some 40% of out exports are to the UK.
We have already got a taste of how it will be like with the UK gone.

Some sectors export 40% to the UK but overall it's more balanced between UK/EU/rest of the world. We actually import more from the UK more than we send.

maryishere

AndyBoBandy wrote: »

My brother is firmly of the opinion it was these idiots that lost it for them. (or certainly it was a key decider for many undecideds)

Whatever about protesting Farage, thats fine he's an idiot, however it was the fishermen who traveled the high seas from around the U.K. to be there, to have their day in the media, to air their grievances on a national platform, and it was ruined by Geldof and his boat load of wealthy gobshítés.

Did not our Taoiseach go over to England and try to interfere in their referendum also? I'm sure many undecideds would have voted Brexit when they saw that overpaid gob****e trying to argue for a remain vote. No wonder they was a slight swing towards Brexit after we reminded them where the tens of millions of EU contributions went, as one commentator said at the time.

Calina

fernrock wrote: »

How about IE-Exit.
After all some 40% of out exports are to the UK.
We have already got a taste of how it will be like with the UK gone.
Meetings being held in French -how did the Irish reps manage --Did they depend on our "good" friend Angela to explain as she normally does .
After all Enda takes her words as gospel.

The EU has a team of interpreters. Meetings are generally held in a few languages at a time. EU Parliament has 24 languages available at plenary.

Plus aren't you ashamed to assume none of our reps or EU public servants actually speak French? Because actually most of them probably do the politicians aside.

steddyeddy

maryishere wrote: »

Did not our Taoiseach go over to England and try to interfere in their referendum also? I'm sure many undecideds would have voted Brexit when they saw that overpaid gob****e trying to argue for a remain vote. No wonder they was a slight swing towards Brexit after we reminded them where the tens of millions of EU contributions went, as one commentator said at the time.

U ok hun xox?

maryishere

fernrock wrote: »

We have already got a taste of how it will be like with the UK gone.
Meetings being held in French -how did the Irish reps manage.

Calina wrote: »

Plus aren't you ashamed to assume none of our reps or EU public servants actually speak French? Because actually most of them probably do the politicians aside.

Yea, one of then was at a dinner table with some new French acquantainces. When one of them said "Bon Appetit", he introduced his name back.

Calina wrote: »

Meetings are generally held in a few languages at a time. EU Parliament has 24 languages available at plenary.
.

If its anything like the Dail, it will not matter if the EU meeting are in French most of the time from now on. Because our lads will be in the bar or elsewhere.

FrancieBrady

maryishere wrote: »

Did not our Taoiseach go over to England and try to interfere in their referendum also? I'm sure many undecideds would have voted Brexit when they saw that overpaid gob****e trying to argue for a remain vote. No wonder they was a slight swing towards Brexit after we reminded them where the tens of millions of EU contributions went, as one commentator said at the time.

He told them about the wealthy British farmers and Mrs Winsdor creaming the single farm payments?
Good man Enda!

Rightwing

I thought M Martin was way out of order criticising British ministers. He may have been right in what he was saying, but shows the man is incapable.

Brexit is such a can of worms. I can see relations between the EU & UK get very ugly if EU play hardball. Putin must be having a good laugh.

tomwaterford

fernrock wrote: »

How about IE-Exit.
After all some 40% of out exports are to the UK.
We have already got a taste of how it will be like with the UK gone.
Meetings being held in French -how did the Irish reps manage --Did they depend on our "good" friend Angela to explain as she normally does .
After all Enda takes her words as gospel.

How about no

If English is the business language of the world as we areceive repeatedly told

Would this not leave ireland as the biggest English language population in the the eu


It's reducing ties with England we should be

maryishere

Rightwing wrote: »

I thought M Martin was way out of order criticising British ministers.

What else would you expect? A leopard does not change its spots. FF is FF.

gerogerigegege

maryishere wrote: »

What else would you expect? A leopard does not change its spots. FF is FF.

they're all the same

Del.Monte

Rightwing wrote: »

I thought M Martin was way out of order criticising British ministers. He may have been right in what he was saying, but shows the man is incapable.

Brexit is such a can of worms. I can see relations between the EU & UK get very ugly if EU play hardball. Putin must be having a good laugh.

The dangerous part of it all is that Putin may see an opportunity to have a go at the Baltic states with the UK out of the EU. Although the UK will still be in NATO there may be little appetite to come to the aid of the ungrateful Europeans again and the US can no longer be counted on. Anyway, World peace is safe until after the Soccer World Cup in 2018 as Putin wouldn't want to spoil his ultimate wet dream by starting WW.III.

tomwaterford

Del.Monte wrote: »

The dangerous part of it all is that Putin may see an opportunity to have a go at the Baltic states with the UK out of the EU. Although the UK will still be in NATO there may be little appetite to come to the aid of the ungrateful Europeans again and the US can no longer be counted on. Anyway, World peace is safe until after the Soccer World Cup in 2018 as Putin wouldn't want to spoil his ultimate wet dream by starting WW.III.

Tbf....if Russia wanted to....theres fcuk all difference the UK/anyone really could do anyway to stop them

Junkyard Tom

Del.Monte wrote: »

Although the UK will still be in NATO there may be little appetite to come to the aid of the ungrateful Europeans again.

NATO is a international alliance - whether the UK is in the EU or not is irrelevant. What are the Europeans ungrateful for?

maryishere

Del.Monte wrote: »

Although the UK will still be in NATO there may be little appetite to come to the aid of the ungrateful Europeans again and the US can no longer be counted on.

Correct and well said. IThe UK has done enough for Europe to date, from coming to the aid of little Catholic Belgium in WW1 ( which was raped by the Germans), coming to the aid of Europe in WW2, helping Europe after WW2 and defend it in the cold war, to being the 2nd biggest EC/EEC/EU contributor, helping us (along with the IMF ) a few years ago when nobody else would lend us money...The UK absorbed more immigrants from Poland and Latvia than any other country did...and now the EU say the UK must be punished when the UK wants to leave the EU !!!!

Iwasfrozen

I'm glad the people in this thread aren't negotiating for Ireland.

A deal will happen because it's in both parties interests to make it happen. The EU and the UK are interdependent and neither side would tolerate a cessation of trade.