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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

Just looking ahead into the next couple of weeks to see what might be in store. It would seem to me that after the week coming being under the influence of a weaker more unorganized Jet Stream ,next Weekend on from the 24th gets more organised with a strong Zonal flow producing quite an amount of low's moving up off the coast and then the Jet goes more Meridional with the models predicting lows coming in from the South. It was a recent Meridional jet that introduced warmer tropical continental air with record breaking Temperatures followed by heavy rainfall for some.It also proved a very difficult time for forecasters to predict as there was a big change in forecasts in only a few days with fast forming troughs and lows forming.

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ArKl0w

Tickityboo wrote: »

Wow!! two thirds of winter written off on the 2nd December!!

No
But yes pattern changes can last for a month sometimes 2 months
Hopefully not in this case!! Or we are in for a dreary winter

Gonzo

Tickityboo wrote: »

Wow!! two thirds of winter written off on the 2nd December!!

may not be written off but this does not bode well one little bit. If the atlantic stays active all the way into April then most of Ireland away from the west and north can forget about it for another year.

squarecircles

Well,on a positive note,if the Atlantic comes back,as it seems it will,with everything going tits up,it might run out of steam in 6 months,we might have a good summer 2017.

What an absolutely ridiculous climate.

Prepares for the muck fest*

Harry Palmr

I think this is going to be a very quiet winter, dry and bright (but foggy if you live away from the coasts) to make up for the last few wet and windy horrors

nagdefy

The Atlantic is getting going next week but i wouldn't necessarily say that's 2 mts of wet and windy weather as we've had 2 anticyclonic months.

The Atlantic can be in full steam and turn off within 5 to 6 days. I remember the last week of January 2009 being wet and windy and low and behold along comes a regieme change with an easterly for the first week of February and a cold February overall.

Likewise an Atlantic storm on 5/6th January 1991 was followed by a week long polar maritime interlude which brought snow to a lot of the country, low ground alike, followed by a few days anticyclonic weather and heavy frost.

The last few years have seen the Atlantic dominate our winters with little change. I think because these winters are fresh in our memories it's resulting in a lot of fatal prognosis with regards to the chance of wintriness this winter. Many are assuming that when the Atlantic kicks in it will stay in situ for 2 months at least. But if we look at winters over the last 35 years or so that is not necessarily the case.

hatrickpatrick

Correct me if I'm wrong, but "The Atlantic" in Irish winter terms simply refers to a strong polar vortex and jet, doesn't it? In which case predicting how it will turn out for more than a week or two in advance is more or less impossible. There's all kinds of stuff going on way up in the stratosphere (which I for one can't even begin to get my head around, unfortunately) which has knock-on effects as you go down through the layers of the atmosphere, and ultimately has the final word on what surface atmospheric conditions are like.

esposito

http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/38163932

Emphasis on a meandering jet stream for the forseeable - which means yes, we will get occasional low pressure systems over us but not consistently like last winter. So this could potentially allow for cold weather from the east and north to hit us at times this winter. All not lost. Nothing like last year:)

pedigree 6

Deep FI but that is what this thread is about.
Not the worst chart.

DOCARCH

Mod Note: I have moved some of the more general 'chit chat' stuff here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057677128

We might try and keep this thread purely for FI Charts (and associated discussion).

Meteorite58

We could be using up a couple of names for storms the week of the 12th , a very mobile weather pattern with quick moving low pressure systems moving up along the Atlantic Seaboard. Interesting to see if they track close to land or stay well off shore, long way off yet but it looks like a very active week.

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nagdefy

Meteorite58 wrote: »

We could be using up a couple of names for storms the week of the 12th , a very mobile weather pattern with quick moving low pressure systems moving up along the Atlantic Seaboard. Interesting to see if they track close to land or stay well off shore, long way off yet but it looks like a very active week.

Wind will be a shock to the system

I can hardly remember the last really windy period. I know the Wexford coast had a hit a few weeks back but it feels like the last windy period was before summer.

ArKl0w

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/805530060136574976

Meteorite58

Next Sun showing up as a potentially very windy and wet day in the last few runs ( the storm showing Hurricane force winds well off shore in this run ) normally tend to track further North in later runs. Wait and see.

Meteorite58

Latest run shows a big downgrade for wind at this stage for Sun/Mon. That HP below Ireland doing a good job blocking out the LP

Signs of Hp building over Europe, and some very cold uppers.

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Elmer Blooker

The GFS and ECM more or less identical at 240.
Its looking more and more like winter 1988-9 I hate to say, that winter was dominated by a Euro high for months!
Interesting to note that November '88 also saw a cold anticyclonic spell.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1988/archives-1988-11-23-0-0.png

ECM1-240.GIF?06-0

I'm not going to be very popular around here!

icesnowfrost

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The GFS and ECM more or less identical at 240.
Its looking more and more like winter 1988-9 I hate to say, that winter was dominated by a Euro high for months!
Interesting to note that November '88 also saw a cold anticyclonic spell.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1988/archives-1988-11-23-0-0.png

I'm not going to be very popular around here!

I wouldn't worry yet. That is miles out. We are all guilty on this page of being Hypocrites. If it's bad news way into fi then we believe it as fact, if it's good news we believe it to be fact or be it with a pinch of salt. Same goes for bad news. FI is great all the same

Oneiric 3

ECM temp anomaly forecast for Dec:

MidMan25

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECM temp anomaly forecast for Dec:

Considering the first few weeks look mild to very mild it doesn't rule out a return to colder weather later in the month.

Iancar29

:rolleyes: :pac: :rolleyes:

mickger844posts

As Ian only too well knows the odds of those charts actually happening are very unlikely. Its one member of the GFS ensembles but looking through 20 or so of them the trend is for some sort of cold to return in the final third of the month.
I certainly would not be giving up on the month just yet.
But i won't be boarding the hype train just yet either

SeaBreezes

Choo choo! :-)

Iancar29

Some nice signal on this mornings ensembles for high pressure.

Nothing drastically cold but similar to what we had for the 2nd half of November.

pedigree 6

If this happened am I right in saying snow showers off the atlantic for the west and north?

nagdefy

pedigree 6 wrote: »

If this happened am I right in saying snow showers off the atlantic for the west and north?

Could be borderline i'd say!? A long enough fetch over the north atlantic.

Though it reminds me of the synoptics the night of 4th February 2013 which brought a nice dumping of snow. It lasted into the following day

nagdefy

Hope this posts. 4th Feb 2013. Brought snow as far south as my location.Laois/Carlow/KK border. Also low ground in the area.

hotwhiskey

Reaction to the latest model outputs.

Depression stuff I'm afraid!

dexter647

^^^^
I haven't bothered taking a trip over to Meteociel as tbh when I log onto boards and see about 4 people in the weather forum I know it's bad....Not looking great at the moment but we have to live in hope I suppose..:o

giveitholly

i take it by those reactions there is no real cold coming but what is the prognosis for the next few weeks,is it this mild muggy muck,back to the cool dry weather we had the end of november or any sign of wind or rain events?

ArKl0w

Well the Uk met office's cold December and January predictions look goosed anyway
Bland best describes the next few weeks with the likely hood of storms wind and more rain later once that North America cold ejects into the Atlantic stirring its cauldron

It's probably not best to check your gmail spam folders for medicinal solutions however tempting

Captain Snow

Some thing that the GFS and JMA have been hinting at for a while.

High pressure building west with lows heading north or sliding south into Europe. This all for the second half of December.

All the models are showing a cool down any way into the last 2 weeks of December from the east and into January 2017.

It aint over by a long shot yet.