Immigrant in London slams immigrants

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What's your point? That's a pan-EU tax.

And what does it mean for the UK in the EU, and for the UK out of the EU?

K-9

Sergio Georgini wrote: »

If this deal would be such a bad outcome for them, then why aren't Norway and Switzerland clamouring to get full membership?

Because they don't want to go in.

But why focus on those 2? How many countries joined over the last 20 years or so?

K-9

K-9 wrote: »

Because they don't want to go in.

But why focus on those 2? How many countries joined over the last 20 years or so?

What kind of logic is that? If the UK votes to leave then they too will be in the 'don't want to go in' club.

And re: the countries who have joined in the past 20 years, again, what has that to do with the UK's decision to leave or stay? I don't see the logic. "You have to vote to stay in the EU because quite a few Eastern European countries have joined." What?

The_Kew_Tour

Anyone got Articles videos on the improvements and benefits that countries like Poland, Bulgaria and Romania have benefited from joining EU?

jmayo

seamus wrote: »

They have very specific income streams (oil/fishing and questionable banking respectively) that would be hurt if they were to ask for EU membership. In short, it suits them to not be members.

The UK is different because its economy has already been structured to conform to EU law. So unless those on the leave side have some very specific ideas of industries that are being stifled by EU law and will flourish outside of it, they're backing a loser.

Perhaps the UK will fire up the old coal mines and build a whole new world-beating fishing fleet. But they still need to trade with the EU.

Actually UK fishermen are campaigning to leave.
They are very unhappy with EU fishery policy and Spanish fleet fishing in their waters.

I notice every one of the Europhiles are telling everyone how bad things will be for the UK, but what about the effects on EU ?

UK is second biggest contributor to EU budget.
Where does the EU get the extra 12 odd billion pounds that UK contributes after rebates are applied ?

Do the Germans pony up even more ?
Oh wait they actually want the rest of us to pony up even more so that they can afford all those recently arrived "refugees".

We are the only EU country with an actual land border with the UK.
We have a unique historical connection with the UK that goes back long before the EEC never mind the EU.
We have had reasonably free movement of people that was maintained even during the trade war with Britain in the 1930s.

If Britain does leave can Berlin and Brussels dictate our future trading and free movement of people with our nearest neighbour and the state that we share this island with ?

jmayo

K-9 wrote: »

Because they don't want to go in.

But why focus on those 2? How many countries joined over the last 20 years or so?

You can't compare the UK today with countries in Central and Eastern Europe that were just out of a 50 year stretch living under a stifling communist regime which had no real proper development since WWII.

The UK is more comparable to Norway or Switzerland than Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, etc.

Ireland circa the 1970s and early 1980s would be comparable to some of the Central and Eastern European states that joined in last 20 odd years.

Touchee

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Anyone got Articles videos on the improvements and benefits that countries like Poland, Bulgaria and Romania have benefited from joining EU?

I don't have a link, because I'm too lazy, but I can share some info seeing that I'm from Romania. There haven't been massive improvements, but mainly because the Romanian government is too corrupt, rather than this being EUs fault.

A while ago, elected officials tried to pass legislation which gave them immunity for life from any type of prosecution, which is crazy.

This law would have been enacted, if it wasn't for the EU who did put some pressure on this not becoming law. But it just gives you an idea of the type of corruption that prevents development. I'm not saying the EU is great but at times their involvement can be positive.

ancapailldorcha

Sergio Georgini wrote: »

And what does it mean for the UK in the EU, and for the UK out of the EU?

You still haven't explained your point.

ancapailldorcha

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Anyone got Articles videos on the improvements and benefits that countries like Poland, Bulgaria and Romania have benefited from joining EU?

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/01/eu-poland-10-years-economic

First Up

tipptom wrote: »

You go to try to explain the arrogant statement that at some stage "the topic needs to be taken over by adults"to the blatantly wrong claims from the brexit side", but then to personally start the previous paragraph with the same arrogant condescending bull of "Adults like me"which ironically is more the speech of a young child who is angry that things are not going your way.

A direct response to the phrase in your post.

12Phase

The problem in Ireland is that this will undoubtedly have very different impacts on different types of businesses.

If your income is dependent on larger companies and multinationals, it's likely that y you'll see things growing here as Ireland becomes the alternative to the UK in the EU. I could see a lot of companies opting to base themselves here to avoid UK restrictions and access the EU market.

However, if you're employed by an Irish SME that's heavily dependent on UK exports, and there are a lot of small services and products companies like that in Ireland, you're going to probably be facing massive uncertainty and possibly loss of trade.

There are two likely risks. First that there is a tariff barrier but there will be a 24 month lead time on that but in the short term a issue is that Sterling could collapse, weakening demand for imported goods from countries with solid currencies - i.e. British spending power might suddenly take a big hit if Sterling goes wonky which is very possible.

I would suspect thought that you'll find a lot of companies that need to be in the EU will take the opportunity to leave the UK.

My concern is that you'll see a manufacturing exit to places like the Czech Republic in particular. The likes of the car industry are very, very unlikely to hang around if Britain can't get some kind of tariff free access to the EU market. They're probably already itching to go to take advantage of lower costs anyway and this will just be the excuse to up and leave.

There's very little British-owned large scale manufacturing in the UK for that kind of product, so I wouldn't count on their being much sentimentality.

Major exporters do not like a situation where the rug's been pulled from under them by politics and will likely now see the UK as somewhat 'politically unstable' as the political environment is fundamentally impacting their ability to trade. That isn't a good place for any country to be.

The_Kew_Tour

Touchee wrote: »

I don't have a link, because I'm too lazy, but I can share some info seeing that I'm from Romania. There haven't been massive improvements, but mainly because the Romanian government is too corrupt, rather than this being EUs fault.

A while ago, elected officials tried to pass legislation which gave them immunity for life from any type of prosecution, which is crazy.

This law would have been enacted, if it wasn't for the EU who did put some pressure on this not becoming law. But it just gives you an idea of the type of corruption that prevents development. I'm not saying the EU is great but at times their involvement can be positive.

Appreciate feedback

The_Kew_Tour

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/01/eu-poland-10-years-economic

Appreciate the article

I understand it's still in development, but Poles are still leaving in their droves to live in UK,Ireland and Western Europe.

You just wonder. Cause when I was there in 2012 I was surprised how poor infrastructure was there

I guess we still have give it another 10 years or so before we see the general benefits, hopefully

K-9

Sergio Georgini wrote: »

What kind of logic is that? If the UK votes to leave then they too will be in the 'don't want to go in' club.

And re: the countries who have joined in the past 20 years, again, what has that to do with the UK's decision to leave or stay? I don't see the logic. "You have to vote to stay in the EU because quite a few Eastern European countries have joined." What?

Huh?

jmayo

12Phase wrote: »

The problem in Ireland is that this will undoubtedly have very different impacts on different types of businesses.

If your income is dependent on larger companies and multinationals, it's likely that y you'll see things growing here as Ireland becomes the alternative to the UK in the EU. I could see a lot of companies opting to base themselves here to avoid UK restrictions and access the EU market.

However, if you're employed by an Irish SME that's heavily dependent on UK exports, and there are a lot of small services and products companies like that in Ireland, you're going to probably be facing massive uncertainty and possibly loss of trade.

There are two likely risks. First that there is a tariff barrier but there will be a 24 month lead time on that but in the short term a issue is that Sterling could collapse, weakening demand for imported goods from countries with solid currencies - i.e. British spending power might suddenly take a big hit if Sterling goes wonky which is very possible.

I would suspect thought that you'll find a lot of companies that need to be in the EU will take the opportunity to leave the UK.

My concern is that you'll see a manufacturing exit to places like the Czech Republic in particular. The likes of the car industry are very, very unlikely to hang around if Britain can't get some kind of tariff free access to the EU market. They're probably already itching to go to take advantage of lower costs anyway and this will just be the excuse to up and leave.

There's very little British-owned large scale manufacturing in the UK for that kind of product, so I wouldn't count on their being much sentimentality.

Major exporters do not like a situation where the rug's been pulled from under them by politics and will likely now see the UK as somewhat 'politically unstable' as the political environment is fundamentally impacting their ability to trade. That isn't a good place for any country to be.

Yes we know that SME's and agriculture are more dependent on UK and you just highlight issues that UK may have with multinationals looking to move.
But as I asked what will the effects on continental Europe be ?

If the EU starts playing silly buggers with tariffs, then the EU start losing a market of 60 odd million and it aint a poor market either.

Speaking of car industry.
Maybe the Germans might bear in mind that a lot of VWs, Audis, BMWs, Mercedes are bought by the British.
The UK is BMW's fourth largest market in 2014 (over 10% of sales) in which they sold more cars than Italy, France and Japan put together.
I think it is somewhat similar for Mercedes.

I don't see the ubber meltdown that some are forecasting if UK leaves.
And if the UK leaves don't assume the GBP will fall and the Euro will be grand.
The day has gone where neighbouring states can slap huge tariffs on trade with each other even if they are out or in the same trading block.

Also an interesting one that I don't think I have seen anyone highlight, I may be wrong.

What happens all those existing energy interconnectors and the planned ones between UK, ourselves and other EU (France, Belgium, Denmark) and non EU states like Norway ?

K-9

K-9 wrote: »

Huh?

Huh is right. I re read what you said and it still makes no sense.

First Up

jmayo wrote:

If the EU starts playing silly buggers with tariffs, then the EU start losing a market of 60 odd million and it aint a poor market either.

True but its a bit more complex than that. If/when the UK leaves the EU, all of its trade relations will be null and void - not just with the EU but also the sixty or so other trade agreements that the EU has with the rest of the world. The UK will have to negotiate their own deals with each of them but with a bargaining chip of 60m instead of 500m.

The scale and complexity of this has not been understood by the Brexit side, judging from the staggeringly niave comments I have heard from them.

jmayo

First Up wrote: »

True but its a bit more complex than that. If/when the UK leaves the EU, all of its trade relations will be null and void - not just with the EU but also the sixty or so other trade agreements that the EU has with the rest of the world. The UK will have to negotiate their own deals with each of them but with a bargaining chip of 60m instead of 500m.

The scale and complexity of this has not been understood by the Brexit side, judging from the staggeringly niave comments I have heard from them.

But all we hear from the pro EU crowd is how awful it will be because Britain suddenly has to negotiate trade agreements and 60 million is so much less than 500 million.

Fecking hell if they are in trouble then one wonders how the hell Norway (5 odd million) has managed to have any decent trade agreements ?
How has Switzerland (8 odd million) managed to have any fair trade agreements with other countries ?

BTW the UK has the 21st largest population in the world with over 65 million people, not 60 as I said.

Hell the extra 5 million odd I just found equates almost to the Norwegian population.

Oh and that 60 odd million has a massively big spending power in comparison to a lot of the countries with bigger populations ahead of them.
I bet UK's 65 million can spend more than Pakistan's 192 million or Nigeria's 186 million.

And no one has still answered how will EU be affected without UK ?

And please don't just state Ireland and SME's or agriculture, lets hear how the rest will be affected ?

Beefy78

jmayo wrote: »

Oh and that 60 odd million has a massively big spending power in comparison to a lot of the countries with bigger populations ahead of them.
I bet UK's 65 million can spend more than Pakistan's 192 million or Nigeria's 186 million.

Fifth largest economy in the World and the second largest in Europe.

The UK economy accounts for nearly 20% of the total EU economy (if such a thing exists) based on the IMF's figures

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

First Up

jmayo wrote:

Fecking hell if they are in trouble then one wonders how the hell Norway (5 odd million) has managed to have any decent trade agreements ? How has Switzerland (8 odd million) managed to have any fair trade agreements with other countries ?

Of course they will get "decent" trade agreements. They just won't be as good as the ones they are opting out of. Take a closer look at what Norway and Switzerland agreed to in order to get their agreements with the EU.

The sixty or so trade agreements also have to be negotiated which is not an overnight process and would be a huge drain on the administration at a time when they also have to unravel and re-write thousands of pieces of legislation.

They have two years to do it all and will be doing it against the background noise of a stock market plunge, a currency plunge, decimation of the financial services sector, investor uncertainty and political upheaval.

But I suppose I'm just scaremongering and it will all be grand.

Beefy78

You're not scaremongering - obviously it will be a logistical nightmare. And that's without considering a likely General Election in that two years and resisting the pressure from the SNP for a new referendum.

But it is do-able and a UK would come out the other side not radically different to the one there today. Poorer? Probably. But if it is the right thing to do then people having a few quid less at the end of the month probably should stop it.

purplepanda

FTA69 wrote: »

Yeah whose fault is that though? The reason housing is so expensive is because we have a class of landlords gouging the sh*t out of people and a millionaire's government refusing to bring in any sort of rent control. On top of that we had social housing flogged off en masse and half of it now is in the hands of property companies charging us a fortune to live in them.

People are right to be angry at housing and low pay, but blaming migrants for these problems just lets the people who are actually responsible off the hook.

I totally agree with your viewpoint. I don't think anyone is blaming anyone but the establishment & politicians who have let this situation get totally out of control & show no sign of dealing with the issue because it suits their agenda of higher profits at all costs.

There is no serious long term planning for the extra infrastructure needed, & associated spending involved in dealing with a massive population explosion over the next decade or two.

We don't even have a pubic debate on how the country, especially south east England is going to cope with this extra population, current house building annual rates won't cope with this amount without major issues of illegal overcrowding which are already occurring.

Until a detailed long term plan with expenditure forecasts is put into place for projected population increases instead of the current ad hoc approach I won't be changing my mind.

So many people of all backgrounds have decided to protest against the situation by voting to leave, not exactly what the establishment wanted.

If it was good enough for Tony Benn to be against the EU, it's certainly good enough for me & many others.

ancapailldorcha

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Appreciate the article

I understand it's still in development, but Poles are still leaving in their droves to live in UK,Ireland and Western Europe.

You just wonder. Cause when I was there in 2012 I was surprised how poor infrastructure was there

I guess we still have give it another 10 years or so before we see the general benefits, hopefully

Paul Krugman won the 1991 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on this subject. When people are mobile, they'll tend to move from poorer economic areas like Poland to richer areas like the UK and Germany.

RDM_83 again

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Paul Krugman won the 1991 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on this subject. When people are mobile, they'll tend to move from poorer economic areas like Poland to richer areas like the UK and Germany.

In my view, and I am fairly pro-European (as a concept), the system was never designed to function between areas with such large purchasing power parity differences (what you can buy with your earnings basically). Its worth it for an Eastern European to work hard at a fairly badly paid job, live three to a room and save every penny*, when they take the money home its worth 50-100% more, for an English guy the sacrifice isn't as worth it the money they save won't have the same life impact (albeit I know people that work like that then go to asia).

* Massive generalization there obviously loads of educated/highly skilled E.Europeans and people that settle for good and personally I think one of the better things about Ireland is our mass migration occurred from people who are very culturally similar

ancapailldorcha

RDM_83 again wrote: »

In my view, and I am fairly pro-European (as a concept), the system was never designed to function between areas with such large purchasing power parity differences (what you can buy with your earnings basically). Its worth it for an Eastern European to work hard at a fairly badly paid job, live three to a room and save every penny*, when they take the money home its worth 50-100% more, for an English guy the sacrifice isn't as worth it the money they save won't have the same life impact (albeit I know people that work like that then go to asia).

* Massive generalization there obviously loads of educated/highly skilled E.Europeans and people that settle for good and personally I think one of the better things about Ireland is our mass migration occurred from people who are very culturally similar

That's a fair point. I know Tony Blair's Labour government lobbied to get the Eastern European nations into the EU. I suspect they saw opportunities for markets to grow. My comment was more about the nature of migration as opposed to being about the EU specifically.

jmayo

First Up wrote: »

Of course they will get "decent" trade agreements. They just won't be as good as the ones they are opting out of. Take a closer look at what Norway and Switzerland agreed to in order to get their agreements with the EU.

The sixty or so trade agreements also have to be negotiated which is not an overnight process and would be a huge drain on the administration at a time when they also have to unravel and re-write thousands of pieces of legislation.

They have two years to do it all and will be doing it against the background noise of a stock market plunge, a currency plunge, decimation of the financial services sector, investor uncertainty and political upheaval.

But I suppose I'm just scaremongering and it will all be grand.

But you are to a degree.
I have expected you to point me towards a video of The Day of the Triffids.

The stock market will collapse, all financial services will move to ... ?
Actually where will they move ?
Somehow I don't think they will be racing to Frankfurt, will they be racing to little old Ireland, or will they be off to Dubai, Hong Kong, etc ?

And yet all the time you keep telling us how Britain/UK will face economic collapse and the politicians, diplomats and civil servants unable to reach trade agreements, you never once give us any idea what will happen to the good old EU.
You keep telling us that the GBP will have dropped, but not once tell us about the currency with the likes of Greece, Italy, Spain attached ?

You don't once factor in what the markets make of an EU now without it's second biggest economy.

No one bothered addressing my question about electricity connectors.

Here is another one that I have thinking about having experience of many many British people living in Europe.

According to UN there are 1.3 million British expats in EU.

Some of these work there, some study there, some own business interests there, but a lot are British retirees living in the likes of Spain, France, Greece, Ireland, etc.

A lot live there thanks to joint agreements on provision of healthcare and healthy exchange rate between Sterling and Euro.
If UK leaves then what happens to those inter country healthcare agreements and if as you say that Sterling will be next to worthless then their pensions will not be much use.
The prospect of banning them from healthcare would result in UK banning Europeans from healthcare and be probably unlikely.
But the exchange rate might be the deciding factor in the end.

Do we get a mass exodos of Britons back to blighty ?
If so then some areas of EU get a sharp reduction in spending.

marienbad

jmayo wrote: »

But you are to a degree.
I have expected you to point me towards a video of The Day of the Triffids.

The stock market will collapse, all financial services will move to ... ?
Actually where will they move ?
Somehow I don't think they will be racing to Frankfurt, will they be racing to little old Ireland, or will they be off to Dubai, Hong Kong, etc ?

And yet all the time you keep telling us how Britain/UK will face economic collapse and the politicians, diplomats and civil servants unable to reach trade agreements, you never once give us any idea what will happen to the good old EU.
You keep telling us that the GBP will have dropped, but not once tell us about the currency with the likes of Greece, Italy, Spain attached ?

You don't once factor in what the markets make of an EU now without it's second biggest economy.

No one bothered addressing my question about electricity connectors.

Here is another one that I have thinking about having experience of many many British people living in Europe.

According to UN there are 1.3 million British expats in EU.

Some of these work there, some study there, some own business interests there, but a lot are British retirees living in the likes of Spain, France, Greece, Ireland, etc.

A lot live there thanks to joint agreements on provision of healthcare and healthy exchange rate between Sterling and Euro.
If UK leaves then what happens to those inter country healthcare agreements and if as you say that Sterling will be next to worthless then their pensions will not be much use.
The prospect of banning them from healthcare would result in UK banning Europeans from healthcare and be probably unlikely.
But the exchange rate might be the deciding factor in the end.

Do we get a mass exodos of Britons back to blighty ?
If so then some areas of EU get a sharp reduction in spending.

What difference does it make what will happen in the EU without GB ? The other EU nations are not voting on the issue .

Jayop

marienbad wrote: »

What difference does it make what will happen in the EU without GB ? The other EU nations are not voting on the issue .

Because even out of the EU, what happens to the economies of the other member states will have a big effect on Britain. if England leaving forces the rest of Europe into recession then that will have a detrimental effect on the British economy.

jmayo

marienbad wrote: »

What difference does it make what will happen in the EU without GB ? The other EU nations are not voting on the issue .

We live in the EU

I keep asking because all I ever hear is what a difference it will make to Ireland, but I also want to know what a difference it will make to the wider EU and it's citizens.

We are now all interlinked for good or for bad.
Thus when Greece slides it takes the Euro down and that affects us in Ireland.
If Britain leaves it has direct effect on us, but it will have possible effects on all of EU and that will have knock more on effects on us.

If it didn't have effect on Ireland and EU, most of us couldn't care less what way they voted.

Galwayguy35

From what I understand any immigrants already there won't be forced out if they vote to leave but it's new immigrants coming in that the situation will be different for.

It's been suggested a points system like what the Aussies have that might be in place which is a good idea IMO, people coming to an English speaking country with about 2 words of the language is ridiculous.