Carlow Kilkenny General Election 2016

fits

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Don't think JP is even lukewarm at all; admittedly it's taken from the Druids Bile but he appears to be Pro-Life/Anti-Choice.

Think Pat'd be Pro-Choice but mightn't be shouting it from the rooftops in run up to the GE.

Pat was one of the last holdouts in the marriage equality referendum being unsure or undecided. Not dynamic enough for me, although I voted for him last time.

JP seems to be anti choice.

road_high

catbear wrote: »

I know it's devilment of me to say it but in ways I believe a FG/FF coalition could be the best thing ever to happen for Labour because then for the first time in the states modern history we'll have a centre left opposition.

FG/L getting back in together will only give us an opposition of increasingly incontinent FF, the loony left and the left over.

At least with a FG led government, FF can be kept away from the sweet jar. On the last stint in government they went to the cookie jar too much and developed terminal diabetes.

I'm of the thinking that "the further FF are from govt and any decision making the better for us all"!

road_high

fits wrote: »

Pat was one of the last holdouts in the marriage equality referendum being unsure or undecided. Not dynamic enough for me, although I voted for him last time.

JP seems to be anti choice.

I reckon they'll just tow the party line when needs be. They're not boat rockers.

road_high

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Don't think JP is even lukewarm at all; admittedly it's taken from the Druids Bile but he appears to be Pro-Life/Anti-Choice.

Think Pat'd be Pro-Choice but mightn't be shouting it from the rooftops in run up to the GE.

Is that the so called Kilkenny Journal? I never read that non sense, you'd find more sense from the Iona Institute to be honest.

Cabaal

road_high wrote: »

Is that the so called Kilkenny Journal? I never read that non sense, you'd find more sense from the Iona Institute to be honest.

It's insulting to proper institutes to use that fake name, use their proper registered name Lolek Ltd.

fits

Cabaal wrote: »

It's insulting to proper institutes to use that fake name, use their proper registered name Lolek Ltd.

I agree wholeheartedly!

catbear

road_high wrote: »

I'm of the thinking that "the further FF are from govt and any decision making the better for us all"!

I was thinking the sooner FF are subsumed entirely into FG the better for Irish politics, they're both centre right so there's no reason to prolong the pretense that offer choice.

RobertKK

The people going on about the same sex marriage referendum.

Remember nationally 38% of the voters were against it.
In Carlow/Kilkenny it was somewhere around 44% against.
Just saying for those who think certain politicians made a mistake. They did represent a large minority of voters in the referendum.

As for repeal the 8th, a newstalk poll has it very close if a referendum was held, as people want to now what would replace, how strong the protection for the unborn would be and I think the idea of letting politicians decide will not go down well. A referendum to repeal would fail in my opinion.
The newstalk/red c poll : from newstalk
48% of those polled believe that this amendment should be removed while 41% of respondents believe that it should not.

RobertKK

catbear wrote: »

I was thinking the sooner FF are subsumed entirely into FG the better for Irish politics, they're both centre right so there's no reason to prolong the pretense that offer choice.

Won't happen.

It suits both FF and FG to stay apart, as it gives them two fronts to tackle the SF problem.

Cabaal

RobertKK wrote: »

The people going on about the same sex marriage referendum.

Remember nationally 38% of the voters were against it.
In Carlow/Kilkenny it was somewhere around 44% against.
Just saying for those who think certain politicians made a mistake. They did represent a large minority of voters in the referendum.

Indeed they did, but the minority is only going to shrink each and every year as more and more people see marriage equality as the norm and essentially the politicians that voted no will be seen as people against progression and equality in this country. History will not see such people in a good light.

Sort of like the backward yokels that campaigned against mixed race marriage in the USA back in the 1960's. After all I think we can all agree that we see the people that wanted to ensure that mixed race marriages remained banned as nothing but racist bigots.

As for repeal the 8th, a newstalk poll has it very close if a referendum was held, as people want to now what would replace, how strong the protection for the unborn would be and I think the idea of letting politicians decide will not go down well. A referendum to repeal would fail in my opinion.
The newstalk/red c poll : from newstalk
48% of those polled believe that this amendment should be removed while 41% of respondents believe that it should not.

I'm certainly not suggesting for a moment that politicians decide the issue of the 8th at all, the issue should be put to a referendum.

However claiming it would fail to change based on current polls is like claiming marriage equality would have failed based on lower support of approx 51% prior to 2008 in polls. Things change and one way or another the issue needs to have a referendum so we can vote on it. After all we've had referendum's for much less important issues at the end of the day.

Anyway to get back on topic, the decision by McGuinness to vote no on the marriage equality issue will likely result in the loss of at least some votes he may have otherwise got from people in their 20's and 30's. At the very least maybe not a 1st pref but other preference votes,

screamer

I don't know what use any of them are TBH. Unless you're living in the city the rural areas get very little focus or attention I find.
I'm very disillusioned with the choices from some trying to build family political dynasties to others who just put themselves up year after year in the hope that someday will be their day without ever setting foot outside of the city environs I just feel it's a bunch of people who are just putting themselves forward for a job and that's their true motivation. So they're all the same all as good or bad as each other and for the first time in my life I think I'll just stay at home and not bother to vote.

Nothing changes anyway the dail is the same circus every time and really the country is run by a group of background public sector consultants who remain in place to run the shop regardless of the puppets out on stage.

lassykk

Captain Havoc wrote: »

That's a poor selection, the only reason I'll be voting is to vote against Sinn Fein.

Ha, was coming on to say exactly the same thing! No political allegiances at all but will be there to vote for anyone bar SF

Owryan

As a Laois man living and voting in CW/KK I can only see all 5 seats going to Kilkenny, 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 LAB/sf.

If a seat does go to a Carlow based candidate then it ll prob be Jennifer Murnane-o'Connor. No one here seems to have a good word for Pat "the invisible man" Deering.

Personally I hope Lab get the last seat at sf's expense. I had to spend some time with the sf candidate, my god it was torture, pure party spin and no idea about Carlow at all.

Last election in 2011 we had McGuiness canvassing for votes in Carlow, wonder will he respect the boundaries this time.

I get a kick out of reading the druids musings on fb, he really thinks his opinions carry weight lol

road_high

Owryan wrote: »

As a Laois man living and voting in CW/KK I can only see all 5 seats going to Kilkenny, 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 LAB/sf.

If a seat does go to a Carlow based candidate then it ll prob be Jennifer Murnane-o'Connor. No one here seems to have a good word for Pat "the invisible man" Deering.

Personally I hope Lab get the last seat at sf's expense. I had to spend some time with the sf candidate, my god it was torture, pure party spin and no idea about Carlow at all.

Last election in 2011 we had McGuiness canvassing for votes in Carlow, wonder will he respect the boundaries this time.

I get a kick out of reading the druids musings on fb, he really thinks his opinions carry weight lol

The Shinner is desperate, absolutely clueless on pretty much everything. I don't understand how anyone with a jot of sense or education can vote for her.
She gets a big whack in Carlow, there's more a working class republican vote. McGuinness gets a lot of that vote type in Kilkenny.

kksaints

Surprised Funchion so short in the betting. Shes ran for nearly every election here for the last while and has never gotten that close to being elected. I know SF are at the highest point in the polls in recent memory coming up to the election but even the party name will only get you so far particularly in Carlow-Kilkenny which is very staunchly FF and FG with Labour and the Greens picking up some scraps. Can see there being 2 FF and 2 FG definitely with possibly Labour getting the other seat.

catbear

I'd give her my vote above FF anyday but she won't be far up my list. I wouldn't rule out a SF upset though. I think a lot of younger people with no memory of the troubles will resonate with sooner with SF than jurassic FF. The question will be if enough of them actually vote.

road_high

kksaints wrote: »

Surprised Funchion so short in the betting. Shes ran for nearly every election here for the last while and has never gotten that close to being elected. I know SF are at the highest point in the polls in recent memory coming up to the election but even the party name will only get you so far particularly in Carlow-Kilkenny which is very staunchly FF and FG with Labour and the Greens picking up some scraps. Can see there being 2 FF and 2 FG definitely with possibly Labour getting the other seat.

That's how I call it. I think Ann Phelan is written off at her peril, she's actually delivered quite a few things and has a very good working relationship with the Tanaiste. The Shinner has zero such track record by comparison. Total waste of a vote.

Full Marx

Rather desperate shilling from road high and had the neck to give out about shinnerbots!

If Funchion gets near the same level of support she got in the bye election she will take a seat and I believe it will be at labours expense.

Theres no candidate I would be enthusiastic about voting for but Funchion and her father before her have a long history of trade union work which appeals to me..... and you can say what you like about SF but they have spine and wont roll over completly for power and pensions like labour did.

Its worth remembering that electoral politics of this nature only ever deliver, by design, mild variations on a theme. Real politics and change come from.elsewhere

citykat

We're a conservative shower in KK/CW. Can't see anything other than 2 for FF & FG and 1 for labour. I remember watching a fly on the wall doc about the last election and Funchions reaction to her failure to be elected. Couldn't get over her petulance. In fairness the shinners are the only ones that ever call to my door.

cameramonkey

road_high wrote: »

That's how I call it. I think Ann Phelan is written off at her peril, she's actually delivered quite a few things and has a very good working relationship with the Tanaiste. The Shinner has zero such track record by comparison. Total waste of a vote.

How do you mean "Ann Phelan is written off at her peril"? You mean at someone else's peril?

Looking at Phelan's numbers in 2011, surprisingly she only got 10.9%, pretty low considering the 19.4% Labour got nationally. Even though she got the highest FPV she was only elected on the 12 count, elected I think on Funchions transfers. Those SF transfers will not be coming her way this time because Funchion should be pretty far ahead of her if you believe the polls. I cant see any way Phelan can be elected on the numbers that I believe she will get, maybe about 7%.

Funchion is almost sure be elected unless there is a catastrophic drop in SF support, 12% should get her through and she is pretty good with receiving transfer. In the by- election she was more transfer friendly than the Labour candidate.

I think it should be Bobby Aylward, John McGuinness, Funchion, JP Phelan and one other.

road_high

Full Marx wrote: »

Rather desperate shilling from road high and had the neck to give out about shinnerbots!

If Funchion gets near the same level of support she got in the bye election she will take a seat and I believe it will be at labours expense.

Theres no candidate I would be enthusiastic about voting for but Funchion and her father before her have a long history of trade union work which appeals to me..... and you can say what you like about SF but they have spine and wont roll over completly for power and pensions like labour did.

Its worth remembering that electoral politics of this nature only ever deliver, by design, mild variations on a theme. Real politics and change come from.elsewhere

If she was such a super candidate and had any ability to capitalise on govt dissatisfaction she'd have easily taken a seat that time and indeed previously. She wasn't within an asses roar of a seat as it turned out, both Alyward and Fitzgerald were 5-10k votes clear of her- on an occasion where she had a relatively free run as there were no incumbents. And this was all before the "we should be like like Greece" SF debacle which has helped scare off any SF dreams of middle class voters they so crave. So if that's the kind of "spine" you're taking about i'll pass yet again on SF. In their case "change" equals anarchy, Syriza style.
Funny, SF see no problem in Northern Ireland rolling over and imposing austerity on their subject up there. Or indeed sucking up the pensions and expenses from Wesrminster where they don't attend, but bleed the British taxpayer dry instead.

bobbysands81

road_high wrote: »

If she was such a super candidate and had any ability to capitalise on govt dissatisfaction she'd have easily taken a seat that time and indeed previously. She wasn't within an asses roar of a seat as it turned out, both Alyward and Fitzgerald were 5-10k votes clear of her- on an occasion where she had a relatively free run as there were no incumbents. And this was all before the "we should be like like Greece" SF debacle which has helped scare off any SF dreams of middle class voters they so crave. So if that's the kind of "spine" you're taking about i'll pass yet again on SF. In their case "change" equals anarchy, Syriza style.
Funny, SF see no problem in Northern Ireland rolling over and imposing austerity on their subject up there. Or indeed sucking up the pensions and expenses from Wesrminster where they don't attend, but bleed the British taxpayer dry instead.

€50 charity bet to a charity of your choosing should Funchion not get in?

You choose charity no matter who wins, I'll post receipt here if you win.

road_high

citykat wrote: »

We're a conservative shower in KK/CW. Can't see anything other than 2 for FF & FG and 1 for labour. I remember watching a fly on the wall doc about the last election and Funchions reaction to her failure to be elected. Couldn't get over her petulance. In fairness the shinners are the only ones that ever call to my door.

Didn't see that documentary. That doesn't surprise me, when she speaks (which is rare) it's like a 12 year old reading a pre prepared script...badly. Imagine sending that to the Dail. Might as well not bother. This isn't someone who can talk to investors in Kilkenny or lead delegations to secure funding.

David Fitzgerald well out polled her, and he was a first time candidate! She had run on many occasions, each time failing. She'd probably believed her own propaganda up to that point, hence the reaction. And the appetite for Shinneronomics has faded a fair bit since then even.

road_high

bobbysands81 wrote: »

€50 charity bet to a charity of your choosing should Funchion not get in?

You choose charity no matter who wins, I'll post receipt here if you win.

No thanks, I never gamble. That's for silly, unemployed people.

cameramonkey

road_high wrote: »

If she was such a super candidate and had any ability to capitalise on govt dissatisfaction she'd have easily taken a seat that time and indeed previously.

No one here is saying she is a super candidate, they are giving their predictions for the election. You seem to be the one that is aggressively anti Funchio and pro Phelan.

road_high wrote: »

She wasn't within an asses roar of a seat as it turned out, both Alyward and Fitzgerald were 5-10k votes clear of her- on an occasion where she had a relatively free run as there were no incumbents.

How can there be incumbents, it was a by election. Do you know the meaning of incumbents?

road_high wrote: »

And this was all before the "we should be like like Greece" SF debacle which has helped scare off any SF dreams of middle class voters they so crave. So if that's the kind of "spine" you're taking about i'll pass yet again on SF. In their case "change" equals anarchy, Syriza style.
Funny, SF see no problem in Northern Ireland rolling over and imposing austerity on their subject up there. Or indeed sucking up the pensions and expenses from Wesrminster where they don't attend, but bleed the British taxpayer dry instead.

Your dislike of SF should not blind you to the facts on the ground, those facts point to SF taking a seat.

bobbysands81

road_high wrote: »

No thanks, I never gamble. That's for silly, unemployed people.

I'm gonna love seeing Funchion taking a seat knowing it eats away at you!

road_high

Yes of course I know what incumbents are- that's why I mentioned it- Funchion had a much freer run that time as she obviously wasn't competing against pre sitting TDs and had run on several occasions previous. Which should have made life easier for her to take the seat. But she didn't, and that was what, her third time running.

road_high

bobbysands81 wrote: »

I'm gonna love seeing Funchion taking a seat knowing in eats away at you!

Whatever makes you happy I suppose, but all that just illustrates is the kind of one upmanship brand of politics SF stand for.

bobbysands81

road_high wrote: »

Whatever makes you happy I suppose, but all that just illustrates is the kind of one manship brand of politics SF stand for.

Why? I'm not a Shinner.

cameramonkey

road_high wrote: »

Yes of course I know what incumbents are- that's why I mentioned it- Funchion had a much freer run that time as she obviously wasn't competing against pre sitting TDs and had run on several occasions previous. Which should have made life easier for her to take the seat. But she didn't, and that was what, her third time running.

She was competing against Aylward who had been a TD before and whos family are a dynasty.

As you know SF are coming from a very low base so it would be unusual for her to be elected on the % they were on, things have changed and she will be elected this time. I dont think SF have a particularly good candidate but that doesn't mean she wont get elected.

What do you base your belief on that Phelan will be elected? She was a poor vote getter in 2007 compared to the near 20% Labour got nationally, what has changed now that she can change 7% in the polls to over 12% in the election?