Carlow Kilkenny General Election 2016

road_high

Another big field in the constituency.
FG- Phelan, Deering, Fitzgerald
Lab- Ann Phelan
SF- Funchion
FF- McGuinness, Alyward, Murnane OConnor
AAA- Wallace
Renua- McKee
Conor MacLiam of PBP-AAA
Malcolm Noonan of GP/Green Party
Also
Paddy Manning Ind./NP
Noel Walsh Ind./NP

I'm not sure of any of the others, maybe someone else can add them?

I think it'll go 2 FG, 2 FF with a dog fight for the last one between SF, Labour and possibly FG.
I can't see Renua going anywhere, it's a dead duck.

Thanks to Nokia 6230i for filling in some of the other candidates for me.

Cabaal

Theres also identity Ireland I believe, they appear to have links to this new questionable and hate filled party

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/anti-islamic-group-pegida-ireland-to-be-launched-at-dublin-rally-1.2515875

I'd tend to agree with you in relation to FG/FF and then fight between SF/Labour. The usual suspects will win for the likes of FF (McGuinness, Alyward). People need to remember that FF did basically no campaigning in Kilkenny for marriage equality, in general they didn't really support the campaign other then claiming they were for a yes vote....there's a good reason why Power left them to be fair.

I also don't see Renua getting anywhere, their policy's are just ill thought out and I couldn't in good conscious vote for any party with a leader like creighton. From what I understand their runner in Kilkenny (McKee) was in FF but was effectively pushed out by the usual bunch in the party. So it seems he's just more interested in a political career rather then anything else.

road_high

Really hope Ann Phelan can see off SF.
She's streets ahead of Funchion in terms of ability and experience. She is a deeply underwhelming candidate and a total waste of space to send to the Dail. Que onslaught from Shinnerbots, but that's exactly how it is.

McKee is an opportunist but he's been wrong footed on this one. Hope for his own sake he's not burning his own cash on this. He had a prime chance in 2014/15 when dissatisfaction with the govt was at its zenith and he still couldn't get a seat and got a reasonable, but way off a seat vote.

Nokia6230i

Cabaal wrote: »

Theres also identity Ireland I believe, they appear to have links to this new questionable and hate filled party

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/anti-islamic-group-pegida-ireland-to-be-launched-at-dublin-rally-1.2515875

I'd tend to agree with you in relation to FG/FF and then fight between SF/Labour. The usual suspects will win for the likes of FF (McGuinness, Alyward). People need to remember that FF did basically no campaigning in Kilkenny for marriage equality, in general they didn't really support the campaign other then claiming they were for a yes vote....there's a good reason why Power left them to be fair.

I also don't see Renua getting anywhere, their policy's are just ill thought out and I couldn't in good conscious vote for any party with a leader like creighton. From what I understand their runner in Kilkenny (McKee) was in FF but was effectively pushed out by the usual bunch in the party. So it seems he's just more interested in a political career rather then anything else.

PO'L of II (an unregistered party) ran in the bye-election; he's not running here this time round thankfully; embarrassingly he Polled 930 1st Preference Votes in May 15.

Think this time round he's running in Cork North Central but unless the "Party" register it'll be under the Ind./NP Banner on the Ballot Paper.

road_high

Oloughlin was based in Carlow town last time. He was an unemployed school teacher if I recall correctly? Must have gotten a job down in cork perhaps...

Nokia6230i

road_high wrote: »

Really hope Ann Phelan can see off SF.
She's streets ahead of Funchion in terms of ability and experience. She is a deeply underwhelming candidate and a total waste of space to send to the Dail. Que onslaught from Shinnerbots, but that's exactly how it is.

McKee is an opportunist but he's been wrong footed on this one. Hope for his own sake he's not burning his own cash on this. He had a prime chance on 2014 when dissatisfaction with the govt was at its zenith and he still couldn't get a seat and got a reasonable, but way off a seat vote.

Think you're right; surely after having a 2nd Tilt at it having finished 5th or 6th (?) in the Bye-Election in May he'll throw that hat at it & walk away if he doesn't A), Poll better this time round and/or , Get in even if it's on the 5th Seat?

He was the Golden Boy of Renua; their Guinea Pig & after dipping their toes in the water in May there's serious pressure on him this time round since they would've perceived a demand last time round.

Nokia6230i

road_high wrote: »

Oloughlin was based in Carlow town last time. He was an unemployed school teacher if I recall correctly? Must have gotten a job down in cork perhaps...

Or simply, hopefully still be an unemployed teacher in Cork?

No loss that he's not running in this constituency this time round.

Can't say I'd like him teaching my kids in National or Primary School!

road_high

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Or simply, hopefully still be an unemployed teacher in Cork?

No loss that he's not running in this constituency this time round.

Can't say I'd like him teaching my kids in National or Primary School!

Never knew a lot about him to be honest. Cork city would be a bit more radical voting wise (left wing that is) but still can't see him getting near a seat.

road_high

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Think you're right; surely after having a 2nd Tilt at it having finished 5th or 6th (?) in the Bye-Election in May he'll throw that hat at it & walk away if he doesn't A), Poll better this time round and/or , Get in even if it's on the 5th Seat?

He was the Golden Boy of Renua; their Guinea Pig & after dipping their toes in the water in May there's serious pressure on him this time round since they would've perceived a demand last time round.

I can see him doing a lot worse this time.
Sue Nunn used have him on regularly but she's not on air these days, plus it was a fresh novelty back then.
Now the hard questions are being asked of Renua and for me as a voter there's absolutely nothing there but a risk of instability. FG have firmly taken away any economic angle they thought they might have had.

catbear

Cabaal wrote: »

People need to remember that FF did basically no campaigning in Kilkenny for marriage equality, in general they didn't really support the campaign other then claiming they were for a yes vote.....

Actually people need to be reminded that FF weren't actually united on the vote, McGuinness is one of the few TDs nationally to actively came out for a No vote.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/john-mcguinness-says-he-will-vote-no-in-marriage-referendum-1.2217553

As usual I'll be voting in ascending order starting with my least preferable first and my No1 being ticked last. It's a good contest for the bottom of the barrel between the No voters Manning and McGuinness; can't decide which one I find most slippery.

I'll give Noel Walsh a boost over Greens, AAA and Renua and this year for the first time ever in my life I'll be putting SF over FF.

Fainna Fail, male, stale and beyond the Pale.

DerryRed

Can't see Labour getting the final seat. They are going to get wiped out across the country.

Cabaal

catbear wrote: »

Actually people need to be reminded that FF weren't actually united on the vote, McGuinness is one of the few TDs nationally to actively came out for a No vote.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/john-mcguinness-says-he-will-vote-no-in-marriage-referendum-1.2217553

Indeed, I did remember reading somewhere that he was against marriage equality, utterly pathetic really.

McGuinness only cares about one thing...McGuinness! He uses FF to his own benefit but does what he wants and FF are worse for putting up with the likes of him. He basically acts like he's an Independent.

On the marriage equality vote unfortunately for him he made a very poor decision, he voted against something which many people in the country see as a defining moment. He'd rather keep a small group of backward people vote for him then move this country into the future.

His chosen company for the no vote may also create a window into the type of mindset he keeps as they include Independent TDs Mattie McGrath and Michael Healy-Rae, and Senators Fidelma Healy-Eames, Ronán Mullen, Feargal Quinn and Jim Walsh. For example Jim Walsh as a fellow FF'er and he regularly makes bigoted statements against gay people,

DerryRed

Cabaal wrote: »

Indeed, I did remember reading somewhere that he was against marriage equality, utterly pathetic really.

McGuinness only cares about one thing...McGuinness! He uses FF to his own benefit but does what he wants and FF are worse for putting up with the likes of him. He basically acts like he's an Independent.

On the marriage equality vote unfortunately for him he made a very poor decision, he voted against something which many people in the country see as a defining moment. He'd rather keep a small group of backward people vote for him then move this country into the future.

His chosen company for the no vote may also create a window into the type of mindset he keeps as they include Independent TDs Mattie McGrath and Michael Healy-Rae, and Senators Fidelma Healy-Eames, Ronán Mullen, Feargal Quinn and Jim Walsh. For example Jim Walsh as a fellow FF'er and he regularly makes bigoted statements against gay people,

I can't see his stance in the Referendum having any bearing, as unfortunately quite a large number of people who voted in it will not bother to vote in the General Election.

road_high

DerryRed wrote: »

I can't see his stance in the Referendum having any bearing, as unfortunately quite a large number of people who voted in it will not bother to vote in the General Election.

John McGuiness will likely top the poll. Having done nothing for the constituency ever, he does keep well in with his constituents by playing up the "ordinary man act" which goes downs well with the working/welfare classes which are his core vote.

I wouldn't write off Ann Phelan at all. She's had a high profile of late and had some very positive headlines (such as helping secure €19 million for Thomastown hospital)- someone please point out where John McGuiness has done anything similar especially when FF were in power he was a major hindrance to Kilkenny. But the masses were too stupid to see it.
Plus Labour have been edging up nationally, I hope she makes it back in as she deserves to.

Sky King

PP Odds:

Cabaal

DerryRed wrote: »

I can't see his stance in the Referendum having any bearing, as unfortunately quite a large number of people who voted in it will not bother to vote in the General Election.

Sadly you're likely correct he will be voted in yet again and the political family will continue....and once he retires the son will step in. No doubt he can then claim some nice expenses like the overtime he claimed...or maybe a nice trip to Seattle with his partner for 22k like his dad did?

road_high

McGuiness spends a fortune getting elected too, once the posters etc go up the place will be plastered with him.

Captain Havoc

That's a poor selection, the only reason I'll be voting is to vote against Sinn Fein.

road_high

Captain Havoc wrote: »

That's a poor selection, the only reason I'll be voting is to vote against Sinn Fein.

That's as good a reason as any...I reckon John Paul Phelan is an excellent politician, just hasn't been given any glory under Enda Kenny as he didn't support him in the heave.

Cabaal

Can't remember his name, but does anyone know if the chap who was running last time claiming he'd bring ikea to Kilkenny is running again? Frankly his leaflet seems like just random ramblings about everything and anything, but it was slightly amusing to read at the time.

[EDIT]

After a search of the forum I see its Noel Walsh, how is anyone voting for him after his leaflet lasttime?

road_high

Jasus he is special...he seems pro marriage equality which makes him more progressive than all of FF combined!

catbear

I'd put Noel Walsh above AAA, Renua, the Greens, McGuinness, or Manning any day.

Anyway I agree with the others who think McGuinness is probably a safe seat regardless of his personal morality. He's rooted in his community and the gambit would be that if needed he could dump FF to make up numbers in a broad coalition and deliver for his voters in a Healy Rae way.

However seeing the state of Lowry's Thurles I don't believe this strategy is always fruitful.

road_high

catbear wrote: »

I'd put Noel Walsh above AAA, Renua, the Greens, McGuinness, or Manning any day.

Anyway I agree with the others who think McGuinness is probably a safe seat regardless of his personal morality. He's rooted in his community and the gambit would be that if needed he could dump FF to make up numbers in a broad coalition and deliver for his voters in a Healy Rae way.

However seeing the state of Lowry's Thurles I don't believe this strategy is always fruitful.

Indeed, there's a town that has declined rapidly. Though I'm not sure it's just the politics, it's had lots of advantages handed to it through the years and capitalised very little on any of them.
Back to our own, Carlow town has had it's difficulties through the recession but hopefully better things ahead. I know Murnane O'Connor will pushing the Carlow town card.

Nokia6230i

Cabaal wrote: »

Can't remember his name, but does anyone know if the chap who was running last time claiming he'd bring ikea to Kilkenny is running again? Frankly his leaflet seems like just random ramblings about everything and anything, but it was slightly amusing to read at the time.

[EDIT]

After a search of the forum I see its Noel Walsh, how is anyone voting for him after his leaflet lasttime?

Yep, Noel Walsh is running (see OP).

Being backed heavily by the Druid himself so no surprise/s there.

He's at 100/1 for a reason......

road_high

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Yep, Noel Walsh is running (see OP).

Being backed heavily by the Druid himself so no surprise/s there.

He's at 100/1 for a reason......

He's clearly never heard of Punctuation, bless him...

fits

An embarrassing selection. Eighth amendment is the red line issue for me. So i cant vote FF or FG as all candidates are against repeal. Cant vote SF either. Ann gets it by process of elimination.

catbear

road_high wrote: »

Indeed, there's a town that has declined rapidly. Though I'm not sure it's just the politics, it's had lots of advantages handed to it through the years and capitalised very little on any of them.

I believe that back in the 50/60s Thurles was a boomtown with Erin Foods employing hundreds if not thousands through smaller businesses supplying it. They never really came back from that and turned their nose up to anything less and now they have little. TRBI is good though.

Saw a few recycled AAA posters up already. Hopefully Enda will pull the trigger tomorrow and we can get through this election over quickly. Feckin sick of the sight of posters after last May. It's actually a great time of year for elections, no much else happens during Feb.

road_high

fits wrote: »

An embarrassing selection. Eighth amendment is the red line issue for me. So i cant vote FF or FG as all candidates are against repeal. Cant vote SF either. Ann gets it by process of elimination.

Pretty sure David Fitzgerald FG is pro repeal. Not sure about JP Phelan or Pat Deering, might be more luke warm I'd reckon.
FF will definitely be anti though, as they are with any social issue- stuck in the dark ages.
Ann is a very able politician and a lovely, amenable lady as well- she's a surprise for me and has worked very hard and smartly for the constituency- I think she's well worth a no 1.

road_high

catbear wrote: »

Saw a few recycled AAA posters up already. Hopefully Enda will pull the trigger tomorrow and we can get through this election over quickly. Feckin sick of the sight of posters after last May. It's actually a great time of year for elections, no much else happens during Feb.

Indeed me too, sick of listening to all those welfare junky idiots droning on about homelessness etc- there's no one lining up to dole a free house to me or anyone I know.
I'm voting back the current govt all the way here, as the country has made a lot of progress under them and I want that to continue. I see no need or point whatsoever in voting otherwise.
Not decided which candidates yet, but I'm voting FG and Labour 1-4 then leaving the polling station.

catbear

I know it's devilment of me to say it but in ways I believe a FG/FF coalition could be the best thing ever to happen for Labour because then for the first time in the states modern history we'll have a centre left opposition.

FG/L getting back in together will only give us an opposition of increasingly incontinent FF, the loony left and the left over.

At least with a FG led government, FF can be kept away from the sweet jar. On the last stint in government they went to the cookie jar too much and developed terminal diabetes.

Nokia6230i

road_high wrote: »

Pretty sure David Fitzgerald FG is pro repeal. Not sure about JP Phelan or Pat Deering, might be more luke warm I'd reckon.
FF will definitely be anti though, as they are with any social issue- stuck in the dark ages.
Ann is a very able politician and a lovely, amenable lady as well- she's a surprise for me and has worked very hard and smartly for the constituency- I think she's well worth a no 1.

Don't think JP is even lukewarm at all; admittedly it's taken from the Druids Bile but he appears to be Pro-Life/Anti-Choice.

Think Pat'd be Pro-Choice but mightn't be shouting it from the rooftops in run up to the GE.

fits

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Don't think JP is even lukewarm at all; admittedly it's taken from the Druids Bile but he appears to be Pro-Life/Anti-Choice.

Think Pat'd be Pro-Choice but mightn't be shouting it from the rooftops in run up to the GE.

Pat was one of the last holdouts in the marriage equality referendum being unsure or undecided. Not dynamic enough for me, although I voted for him last time.

JP seems to be anti choice.

road_high

catbear wrote: »

I know it's devilment of me to say it but in ways I believe a FG/FF coalition could be the best thing ever to happen for Labour because then for the first time in the states modern history we'll have a centre left opposition.

FG/L getting back in together will only give us an opposition of increasingly incontinent FF, the loony left and the left over.

At least with a FG led government, FF can be kept away from the sweet jar. On the last stint in government they went to the cookie jar too much and developed terminal diabetes.

I'm of the thinking that "the further FF are from govt and any decision making the better for us all"!

road_high

fits wrote: »

Pat was one of the last holdouts in the marriage equality referendum being unsure or undecided. Not dynamic enough for me, although I voted for him last time.

JP seems to be anti choice.

I reckon they'll just tow the party line when needs be. They're not boat rockers.

road_high

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Don't think JP is even lukewarm at all; admittedly it's taken from the Druids Bile but he appears to be Pro-Life/Anti-Choice.

Think Pat'd be Pro-Choice but mightn't be shouting it from the rooftops in run up to the GE.

Is that the so called Kilkenny Journal? I never read that non sense, you'd find more sense from the Iona Institute to be honest.

Cabaal

road_high wrote: »

Is that the so called Kilkenny Journal? I never read that non sense, you'd find more sense from the Iona Institute to be honest.

It's insulting to proper institutes to use that fake name, use their proper registered name Lolek Ltd.

fits

Cabaal wrote: »

It's insulting to proper institutes to use that fake name, use their proper registered name Lolek Ltd.

I agree wholeheartedly!

catbear

road_high wrote: »

I'm of the thinking that "the further FF are from govt and any decision making the better for us all"!

I was thinking the sooner FF are subsumed entirely into FG the better for Irish politics, they're both centre right so there's no reason to prolong the pretense that offer choice.

RobertKK

The people going on about the same sex marriage referendum.

Remember nationally 38% of the voters were against it.
In Carlow/Kilkenny it was somewhere around 44% against.
Just saying for those who think certain politicians made a mistake. They did represent a large minority of voters in the referendum.

As for repeal the 8th, a newstalk poll has it very close if a referendum was held, as people want to now what would replace, how strong the protection for the unborn would be and I think the idea of letting politicians decide will not go down well. A referendum to repeal would fail in my opinion.
The newstalk/red c poll : from newstalk
48% of those polled believe that this amendment should be removed while 41% of respondents believe that it should not.

RobertKK

catbear wrote: »

I was thinking the sooner FF are subsumed entirely into FG the better for Irish politics, they're both centre right so there's no reason to prolong the pretense that offer choice.

Won't happen.

It suits both FF and FG to stay apart, as it gives them two fronts to tackle the SF problem.

Cabaal

RobertKK wrote: »

The people going on about the same sex marriage referendum.

Remember nationally 38% of the voters were against it.
In Carlow/Kilkenny it was somewhere around 44% against.
Just saying for those who think certain politicians made a mistake. They did represent a large minority of voters in the referendum.

Indeed they did, but the minority is only going to shrink each and every year as more and more people see marriage equality as the norm and essentially the politicians that voted no will be seen as people against progression and equality in this country. History will not see such people in a good light.

Sort of like the backward yokels that campaigned against mixed race marriage in the USA back in the 1960's. After all I think we can all agree that we see the people that wanted to ensure that mixed race marriages remained banned as nothing but racist bigots.

As for repeal the 8th, a newstalk poll has it very close if a referendum was held, as people want to now what would replace, how strong the protection for the unborn would be and I think the idea of letting politicians decide will not go down well. A referendum to repeal would fail in my opinion.
The newstalk/red c poll : from newstalk
48% of those polled believe that this amendment should be removed while 41% of respondents believe that it should not.

I'm certainly not suggesting for a moment that politicians decide the issue of the 8th at all, the issue should be put to a referendum.

However claiming it would fail to change based on current polls is like claiming marriage equality would have failed based on lower support of approx 51% prior to 2008 in polls. Things change and one way or another the issue needs to have a referendum so we can vote on it. After all we've had referendum's for much less important issues at the end of the day.

Anyway to get back on topic, the decision by McGuinness to vote no on the marriage equality issue will likely result in the loss of at least some votes he may have otherwise got from people in their 20's and 30's. At the very least maybe not a 1st pref but other preference votes,

screamer

I don't know what use any of them are TBH. Unless you're living in the city the rural areas get very little focus or attention I find.
I'm very disillusioned with the choices from some trying to build family political dynasties to others who just put themselves up year after year in the hope that someday will be their day without ever setting foot outside of the city environs I just feel it's a bunch of people who are just putting themselves forward for a job and that's their true motivation. So they're all the same all as good or bad as each other and for the first time in my life I think I'll just stay at home and not bother to vote.

Nothing changes anyway the dail is the same circus every time and really the country is run by a group of background public sector consultants who remain in place to run the shop regardless of the puppets out on stage.

lassykk

Captain Havoc wrote: »

That's a poor selection, the only reason I'll be voting is to vote against Sinn Fein.

Ha, was coming on to say exactly the same thing! No political allegiances at all but will be there to vote for anyone bar SF

Owryan

As a Laois man living and voting in CW/KK I can only see all 5 seats going to Kilkenny, 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 LAB/sf.

If a seat does go to a Carlow based candidate then it ll prob be Jennifer Murnane-o'Connor. No one here seems to have a good word for Pat "the invisible man" Deering.

Personally I hope Lab get the last seat at sf's expense. I had to spend some time with the sf candidate, my god it was torture, pure party spin and no idea about Carlow at all.

Last election in 2011 we had McGuiness canvassing for votes in Carlow, wonder will he respect the boundaries this time.

I get a kick out of reading the druids musings on fb, he really thinks his opinions carry weight lol

road_high

Owryan wrote: »

As a Laois man living and voting in CW/KK I can only see all 5 seats going to Kilkenny, 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 LAB/sf.

If a seat does go to a Carlow based candidate then it ll prob be Jennifer Murnane-o'Connor. No one here seems to have a good word for Pat "the invisible man" Deering.

Personally I hope Lab get the last seat at sf's expense. I had to spend some time with the sf candidate, my god it was torture, pure party spin and no idea about Carlow at all.

Last election in 2011 we had McGuiness canvassing for votes in Carlow, wonder will he respect the boundaries this time.

I get a kick out of reading the druids musings on fb, he really thinks his opinions carry weight lol

The Shinner is desperate, absolutely clueless on pretty much everything. I don't understand how anyone with a jot of sense or education can vote for her.
She gets a big whack in Carlow, there's more a working class republican vote. McGuinness gets a lot of that vote type in Kilkenny.

kksaints

Surprised Funchion so short in the betting. Shes ran for nearly every election here for the last while and has never gotten that close to being elected. I know SF are at the highest point in the polls in recent memory coming up to the election but even the party name will only get you so far particularly in Carlow-Kilkenny which is very staunchly FF and FG with Labour and the Greens picking up some scraps. Can see there being 2 FF and 2 FG definitely with possibly Labour getting the other seat.

catbear

I'd give her my vote above FF anyday but she won't be far up my list. I wouldn't rule out a SF upset though. I think a lot of younger people with no memory of the troubles will resonate with sooner with SF than jurassic FF. The question will be if enough of them actually vote.

road_high

kksaints wrote: »

Surprised Funchion so short in the betting. Shes ran for nearly every election here for the last while and has never gotten that close to being elected. I know SF are at the highest point in the polls in recent memory coming up to the election but even the party name will only get you so far particularly in Carlow-Kilkenny which is very staunchly FF and FG with Labour and the Greens picking up some scraps. Can see there being 2 FF and 2 FG definitely with possibly Labour getting the other seat.

That's how I call it. I think Ann Phelan is written off at her peril, she's actually delivered quite a few things and has a very good working relationship with the Tanaiste. The Shinner has zero such track record by comparison. Total waste of a vote.

Full Marx

Rather desperate shilling from road high and had the neck to give out about shinnerbots!

If Funchion gets near the same level of support she got in the bye election she will take a seat and I believe it will be at labours expense.

Theres no candidate I would be enthusiastic about voting for but Funchion and her father before her have a long history of trade union work which appeals to me..... and you can say what you like about SF but they have spine and wont roll over completly for power and pensions like labour did.

Its worth remembering that electoral politics of this nature only ever deliver, by design, mild variations on a theme. Real politics and change come from.elsewhere

citykat

We're a conservative shower in KK/CW. Can't see anything other than 2 for FF & FG and 1 for labour. I remember watching a fly on the wall doc about the last election and Funchions reaction to her failure to be elected. Couldn't get over her petulance. In fairness the shinners are the only ones that ever call to my door.

cameramonkey

road_high wrote: »

That's how I call it. I think Ann Phelan is written off at her peril, she's actually delivered quite a few things and has a very good working relationship with the Tanaiste. The Shinner has zero such track record by comparison. Total waste of a vote.

How do you mean "Ann Phelan is written off at her peril"? You mean at someone else's peril?

Looking at Phelan's numbers in 2011, surprisingly she only got 10.9%, pretty low considering the 19.4% Labour got nationally. Even though she got the highest FPV she was only elected on the 12 count, elected I think on Funchions transfers. Those SF transfers will not be coming her way this time because Funchion should be pretty far ahead of her if you believe the polls. I cant see any way Phelan can be elected on the numbers that I believe she will get, maybe about 7%.

Funchion is almost sure be elected unless there is a catastrophic drop in SF support, 12% should get her through and she is pretty good with receiving transfer. In the by- election she was more transfer friendly than the Labour candidate.

I think it should be Bobby Aylward, John McGuinness, Funchion, JP Phelan and one other.