Carlow Kilkenny General Election 2016

road_high

fits wrote: »

How are you so sure Phelan has a bad chance? Are there polls for the constituency? (genuinely interested)

Speaking to FG people at the weekend, SF/Funchion hasn't even been mentioned on doorsteps- this was canvassing in Callan where she's from and a mix of working class/middle class. Bona fide, they had no reason to say otherwise. Her big chance was last bye-election, lot of her 15k votes would have been John McGuinness type votes- won't have those time.

road_high

cameramonkey wrote: »

FG's incompetence in election organisation in the Carlow/KK constituency cannot be underestimated.
In the 2007 election the three blue shirts shared a combined vote of over 29% which with any half arsed mob should be enough to get at least 2 elected. However FG split the vote so perfectly that they only got one seat.

As per FF in 2011- more recently than trawling way back to - FF won just one seat on 28%, the exact opposite. FG have split the areas strictly - Deering Carlow, Fitzgerald North Kilkenny, Phelan South.

cameramonkey

fits wrote: »

How are you so sure Phelan has a bad chance? Are there polls for the constituency? (genuinely interested)

Labour are hovering in the national polls at between 6 and 10%. Even if she gets 10% which is incredibly unlikely given the state Labour are in and her not being a very strong candidate you have to ask where the transfers are going to come from? Historically she would have got a big % of Sinn Fein (SF transfers last time around got her over 2000 votes and pushed her over the quota) transfers and other left wing transfers, they will have disappeared. FG have their own battles to fight and they will be transferring between FG and in Deerings case maybe within County Carlow.

So in summary she will be starting on a very low FPV with no hope of transfer against two very strong FF candidates, a FG party that should have at least two quotas and a SF party that has a national vote close to double Labour in all recent opinion polls . She in my opinion has absolutely no chance and I would bet my cash on that.

fits

We will see soon enough I suppose. I think theres a fairly high amount of people like myself who wont vote FF/FG and cant vote for the anti water left-type candidates either. She really falls into the middle there on her own.

cameramonkey

road_high wrote: »

As per FF in 2011- more recently than trawling way back to - FF won just one seat on 28%, the exact opposite. FG have split the areas strictly - Deering Carlow, Fitzgerald North Kilkenny, Phelan South.

FF were transfer toxic in that election but FG did very well to get the 3 seats in 2011. 2016 will be much more difficult for them, they will see a resurgent FF and a strong SF challenge.

As the election nears you will see how strictly the candidates stick to their areas, JPP will be all over South Carlow and it will be every man for himself. Deering gets a nose bleed if he travels south of Bagenalstown .The absence of a slice of North East Carlow ( the Hackestown salient) may be of more significance to Deering this time around.

road_high

fits wrote: »

We will see soon enough I suppose. I think theres a fairly high amount of people like myself who wont vote FF/FG and cant vote for the anti water left-type candidates either. She really falls into the middle there on her own.

There's Patrick McKee I suppose, but can't see much momentum towards him. He got a reasonable if unremarkable vote last bye-election with a big buzz around him. There's nothing about him this time.

fits

I have no interest in that mckee fellow at all. As I said, 8th amendment is red line for me.

RobertKK

fits wrote: »

I have no interest in that mckee fellow at all. As I said, 8th amendment is red line for me.

I think he wants it repealed.

road_high

RobertKK wrote: »

I think he wants it repealed.

I think so. Renua not imposing a whip system on issues of conscience- which I actually agree with. I'm pro-repeal personally but can empathise the position of Lucinda Creighton and others on this.

Cabaal

RobertKK wrote: »

I think he wants it repealed.

He very well might do, but as a party voting for him is a waste because party support for repealing 8th is so low



see list of names for/against here https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5T_zmBLwncFUDhmUjZGbXl1OVE/view?pref=2&pli=1

Interesting enough the three that don't want any referendum are Sean Haughey (FF), Ronan McMahon (Renue) and Mary Hanafin (FF)

road_high

Cabaal wrote: »

He very well might do, but as a party voting for him is a waste because party support for repealing 8th is so low

SF a so-called "voice" of working class people is not convincingly in favour of it- I wonder is this their usual party politics/games above the greater good of the country and it's people, because they'll never be near power they just want to oppose for the sake of opposing?

Captain Havoc

I used to be a one-way voter but I'm starting to lean towards Malcolm Noonan and Patrick McKee as my 1-2, this is one or more of being sick of the same old same old, not agreeing with some parties policies and poor candidates.

road_high

Captain Havoc wrote: »

I used to be a one-way voter but I'm starting to lean towards Malcolm Noonan and Patrick McKee as my 1-2, this is one or more of being sick of the same old same old, not agreeing with some parties policies and poor candidates.

I like Malcolm Noonan, he's a very genuine sort with integrity. Though I'd completely diverge from him on economics and real world stuff.
McKee I'd be far more cynical about. He's more of an opportunist that will float along with what ever gets him elected. He was in FF to start with, at the height of the crisis, so that says it all.

citykat

road_high wrote: »

I like Malcolm Noonan, he's a very genuine sort with integrity. Though I'd completely diverge from him on economics and real world stuff.
McKee I'd be far more cynical about. He's more of an opportunist that will float along with what ever gets him elected. He was in FF to start with, at the height of the crisis, so that says it all.

That's harsh on McKee. His family are/were FF but he knew he'd never progress with the McGuinness stranglehold. He could've just plodded along in the hope of maybe a Seanad spot in the future. Must've been agonising to leave FF and join a new, untried entity. He's still relatively young. He got a lot of publicity around the by-election due to his coming out. IMO he hasn't a hope of getting elected this time so consolidation is the best he can hope for, for now.

road_high

citykat wrote: »

That's harsh on McKee. His family are/were FF but he knew he'd never progress with the McGuinness stranglehold. He could've just plodded along in the hope of maybe a Seanad spot in the future. Must've been agonising to leave FF and join a new, untried entity. He's still relatively young. He got a lot of publicity around the by-election due to his coming out. IMO he hasn't a hope of getting elected this time so consolidation is the best he can hope for, for now.

I'd consider that a release from agony for anyone with an ounce of intelligence...

mountcisco

cameramonkey wrote: »

http://www.irishexaminer.com/election2016/election2016-news-and-analysis/barring-catastrophes-incumbents-set-to-return-in-carlow-kilkenny-380089.html

Examined saying that that it will be the two sitting FG TDs, McGuiness, Aylward and Phelan. I would agree that JPP, McGuiness and Aylward should make it but with Funchion and one other. Phelan hasn't a hope.

Its a pretty poor article.

I think Murnane-O'Connor is a good vote-getter in Carlow and people write her off at their peril. Carlow has two quotas, 40,000 voters, it's just that they don't always vote within the county but through the years they have often returned 2 TDs.

Cabaal

citykat wrote: »

That's harsh on McKee. His family are/were FF but he knew he'd never progress with the McGuinness stranglehold.

Not seeing the relevance, just because his family were FF doesn't mean he had to start as FF.

You only start with a party because you agree with what they stand for. In his case he agreed but got stone walled so he moved partys.

He got a lot of publicity around the by-election due to his coming out. IMO he hasn't a hope of getting elected this time so consolidation is the best he can hope for, for now.

He got more publicity for the dodgy handling of promoting himself using a Yes Kilkenny Facebook page and rightly so. See http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=95622782&postcount=149

Then they denied, denied, denied http://www.thejournal.ie/yes-kilkenny-same-sex-marriage-referendum-by-election-controversy-patrick-mckee-2124210-May2015/

In relation to his sexuality, I don't give a monkeys about his sexuality and anyone that does needs to stop living in the 1950's!

road_high

mountcisco wrote: »

I think Murnane-O'Connor is a good vote-getter in Carlow and people write her off at their peril. Carlow has two quotas, 40,000 voters, it's just that they don't always vote within the county but through the years they have often returned 2 TDs.

I seem to remember it always 2-3 split, just in recent years it's 4-1; course Ann Phelan will naturally argue she is both being based in Graignamanagh, a lot of her posts are Carlow/south Carlow stuff.
FF seem to have a free run on each others area which is probably not great for them, especially her.

kikel

Cabaal wrote: »

Not seeing the relevance, just because his family were FF doesn't mean he had to start as FF.

You only start with a party because you agree with what they stand for. In his case he agreed but got stone walled so he moved partys.



He got more publicity for the dodgy handling of promoting himself using a Yes Kilkenny Facebook page and rightly so. See http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=95622782&postcount=149

Then they denied, denied, denied http://www.thejournal.ie/yes-kilkenny-same-sex-marriage-referendum-by-election-controversy-patrick-mckee-2124210-May2015/

In relation to his sexuality, I don't give a monkeys about his sexuality and anyone that does needs to stop living in the 1950's!

Supposedly McKees old campaign manager for the by electuon that is a prominent member of the local Canoe club and the owner of the Facebook page that allowed death threats against the citizens of Kilkenny is no longer the campaign manager. He may be working in the background but Mckee is keen to not have him upfront anymore. Can't blame Mckee for that decision. The guy is a nasty bit of work.

Moghead

KC161 wrote: »

Is Peter O'Loughlin any relation to an Anthony O'Loughlin who was a school principal in Carlow before taking over the North Monastery in Cork in 1997?same surname/profession/area. Coincidence???

He could be, I seem to remember reading something in the local paper in Carlow about him last year, family moved to Cork when he was a child. Hopefully he'll fair badly in Cork North Central, might get a small bit of support in some quarters there with his anti immigration guff, seem to remember Noel O'Flynn spewing the same rubbish year ago and he got elected there.

By the way who is this guy the Druid? Sorry I'm new to the constituency.

RobertKK

Cabaal wrote: »

He very well might do, but as a party voting for him is a waste because party support for repealing 8th is so low



see list of names for/against here https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5T_zmBLwncFUDhmUjZGbXl1OVE/view?pref=2&pli=1

Interesting enough the three that don't want any referendum are Sean Haughey (FF), Ronan McMahon (Renue) and Mary Hanafin (FF)

I don't want the 8th amendment appealed. The people who argue for never put up an alternative as most people don't want a free for all abortion regime.
Then lots don't trust the Dail to have control over it, which is given as an alternative.

Looking at recent polls on the matter, there is a fairly even split on the matter, so while some will gain for their position on the matter on both sides, in the end it won't be an issue that makes a difference.
It is not clear cut given the recent polls shows support for a repeal would not be starting from a strong position like the Marriage referendum was where polls had it 3 in 4 supporting it, with the end result being roughly 3 in 5 supporting it. So it could be argued the referendum lost support.
The most recent repeal the 8th had it 48% for repeal, 41% against.
So voting for a repeal the 8th candidate will not make much difference as the normal trend is for support to fall not rise in a referendum.

The politicians against it are probably more representative than those against if a referendum is held.

fits

RobertKK wrote: »

I don't want the 8th amendment appealed. The people who argue for never put up an alternative as most people don't want a free for all abortion regime.
Then lots don't trust the Dail to have control over it, which is given as an alternative.
.

God forbid women decide on whats best for themselves with their doctors! They couldnt be trusted!:eek:

catbear

fits wrote: »

God forbid women decide on whats best for themselves with their doctors! They couldnt be trusted!:eek:

It all went down hill after they got the vote!

Captain Havoc

Moghead wrote: »

By the way who is this guy the Druid? Sorry I'm new to the constituency.

Michael McGrath, self appointed high druid of Ireland and former Gauleiter of the Irish National Socialist Party. He also produces the Kilkenny journal which I bycott because I abhor him and that other O'Loughlin fellow.

RobertKK

fits wrote: »

God forbid women decide on whats best for themselves with their doctors! They couldnt be trusted!:eek:

The Newstalk/Red C poll showed a majority of men supported the repeal of the 8th amendment and a majority of women opposed it's amendment.

fits

RobertKK wrote: »

The Newstalk/Red C poll showed a majority of men supported the repeal of the 8th amendment and a majority of women opposed it's amendment.

link please? because all I can see is
"Differences amongst male and female respondents does not vary widely with the most marked contrast between the sexes being in the instances of significant foetal disability or non-fatal foetal abnormality with 66% of men agreeing that abortion should be an option while only 57% of woman agree with this assertion."

https://www.newstalk.com/election2016/48-of-people-believe-the-8th-Amendment-should-be-removed-according-to-poll

catbear

fits wrote: »

link please? because all I can see is
"Differences amongst male and female respondents does not vary widely with the most marked contrast between the sexes being in the instances of significant foetal disability or non-fatal foetal abnormality with 66% of men agreeing that abortion should be an option while only 57% of woman agree with this assertion."

https://www.newstalk.com/election2016/48-of-people-believe-the-8th-Amendment-should-be-removed-according-to-poll

Stop oppressing robert with inconsequentials like unverifiable sources!!!

Cabaal

RobertKK wrote: »

I don't want the 8th amendment appealed.

Thats fine, but thats certainly not a reason not to have a referendum on the matter. After all anyone at the age of 40+ has never had a chance to have their say on this matter.

If you don't want it appealed then you can simply vote No on the day, thats the joys of these things

The people who argue for never put up an alternative as most people don't want a free for all abortion regime.

If most people don't want it changed in that way then I'm sure you'll have nothing to worry about

As we've seen from polls most are certainly in favor of abortion in cases of rape, incest, suicide and fatal fetal abnormalities. A perfectly reasonable position given that at present we as a country fail such women in these situations.

So voting for a repeal the 8th candidate will not make much difference as the normal trend is for support to fall not rise in a referendum.

The exact same argument was put forward for marriage equality before a referendum was called for that too, as I've already pointed out to you earlier in this thread support for marriage equality was 51% prior to 2008 in polls.

Based on this your logic is seriously flawed as if we use your logic then marriage equality would certainly not have passed in Ireland and we shouldn't have bothered to have a referendum on the matter.

Thankfully more progressive minds then yours thought we should have a referendum on the matter and so people had a chance to have their say on the matter.

Remember, marriage equality went from 51% to 62% as a pass on vote day. Sure it dropped a abit before hand but when you are dealing with outright lies and fear mongering from the no side thats going to happen.

The politicians against it are probably more representative than those against if a referendum is held.

You could just as easily argue that they are totally out of touch just like McGuinness was when he voted no in May 2015. After all a majority in Kilkenny voted yes even though the likes of FF did zip all campaigning in Kilkenny for the yes vote.

cameramonkey

RobertKK wrote: »

The Newstalk/Red C poll showed a majority of men supported the repeal of the 8th amendment and a majority of women opposed it's amendment.

Any chance of that link saying a majority of women appose an amendment. Genuinely interested.

catbear

cameramonkey wrote: »

Any chance of that link saying a majority of women appose an amendment. Genuinely interested.

Out of patriarchal duty Robert is well able to speak on behalf of all Irish women.