Double Gameweek Planning

SteelyDanJalapeno · 08-02-2016 9:34am

Has this been posted yet?

Ffscout

BLANK PROBABILITIES
Bet Victor are offering odds for teams to reach the FA Cup Quarter Finals, using those odds I have worked out the percentage chance of each Gameweek 30 fixture being a blank. I won’t bore you with the maths in this article, if you’d like to see the odds, click on the link to my spreadsheet at the bottom of the page.
Arsenal vs West Brom – 91.78%
Man Utd vs Crystal Palace – 91.69%
West Ham vs Watford – 83.93%
Aston Villa vs Spurs – 70.91%
Liverpool vs Chelsea – 68.75%
Sunderland vs Everton – 58.88%
Norwich vs Man City – 50%
Bournemouth vs Swansea – 41.12%
Leicester vs Newcastle – Can’t be a blank.
Stoke vs Southampton – Can’t be a blank.
ANALYSIS
Four teams definitely won’t have a blank in Gameweek 30:
Leicester, Newcastle, Southampton and Stoke.
Either Swansea & Bournemouth or Everton & Sunderland will have blanks in Gameweek 30.
Four teams have at least a 90% chance of a blank in Gameweek 30 (according to Bet Victor):
West Brom, Arsenal, Crystal Palace and Man United.
If West Ham beat Liverpool in their FA Cup replay on Tuesday 9th February:
Either Liverpool & Chelsea or Man City & Norwich will have blanks in Gameweek 30.
STRATEGY
To maximise your free transfers between now and Gameweek 30 so you can get as close to a full XI in Gameweek 30 as possible, without taking hits you should follow these rules (split into two sections: before and after the final game of FA Cup 5th Round weekend on February 21st)
Before February 21st:

Spend the fewest possible FTs (either 0,1 or 2 depending on how many FTs you have right now).
Only buy Leicester, Newcastle, Southampton and Stoke players.
Only sell West Brom, Arsenal, Crystal Palace and Man United players (if West Ham beat Liverpool in their FA Cup replay, you could sell a West Ham or Watford player too).
After February 21st:

Only buy players who won’t have a blank in Gameweek 30.
Only sell players who will have a blank in Gameweek 30 (or players who will miss Gameweek 30 due to injury).
MINIMUM ACTIVE GAMEWEEK 30 PLAYERS
If you’d like to know the minimum number of active players you can get in Gameweek 30 without hits, follow these steps (it might seem obscure, but it works):
5 + the number of FTs you have right now.
Add your total number of Leicester, Newcastle, Southampton and Stoke players.
Add whichever number is smaller:
a) Your total number of Everton & Sunderland players.
or
b) Your total number of Swansea & Bournemouth players.
If Liverpool lose to West Ham in their FA Cup replay next Wednesday, add whichever number is smaller:
a) Your total number of Liverpool & Chelsea players.
or
b) Your total number of Man City & Norwich players.
Subtract 1 if you’re reading this after the Gameweek 25 deadline.
Subtract 2 if you’re reading this after the Gameweek 26 deadline, etc.

stephenl15 · 08-02-2016 1:53pm

First part regarding the % chance of a blank is very good. But the part under the strategy heading is just pointless imo. Over analysing. I'm all for planning ahead but this is 4 gameweeks away. I'd much rather use a wait and see approach.

He advises us to spend as little transfers as possible, but maybe that transfer will gain us a lot of points before gw 30. Saying that I probably will get a Sot defender in preparation to complement Butland since that fixture is 100% and I already have 3 Lei, but I'd rather wait and see how it pans out for the rest.

Need to get as many points as possible for now so I will probably get Firmino or maybe Ivanovic for this week rather than only buying players from those 4 teams which is naive and overplanning imo.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 08-02-2016 2:05pm

stephenl15 wrote: »

First part regarding the % chance of a black is very good. But the part under the strategy heading is just pointless imo. Over analysing. I'm all for planning ahead but this is 4 gameweeks away. I'd much rather use a wait and see approach.

He advises us to spend as little transfers as possible, but maybe that transfer will gain us a lot of points before gw 30. Saying that I probably will get a Sot defender in preparation to complement Butland since that fixture is 100% and I already have 3 Lei, but I'd rather wait and see how it pans out for the rest.

Need to get as many points as possible for now so I will probably get Firmino or maybe Ivanovic for this week rather than only buying players from those 4 teams which is naive and overplanning imo.

I was thinking similar, you can end up sacrificing points between now and then if you're gonna ignore certain teams. and then where is the balance

CSF · 08-02-2016 5:44pm

Can see Norwich v City being a thing. Is there any scope for Newcastle v City being played in the same gameweek or do the Champions League rules prevent that?

Iused2likebusts · 08-02-2016 10:02pm

Swiper will be happy. I reckon I'll be getting andros townsend in a few gws as my bench player . Newcastle are currently the only team with a gw30 fixture and a dgw.

iroced · 09-02-2016 12:51am

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Swiper will be happy. I reckon I'll be getting andros townsend in a few gws as my bench player . Newcastle are currently the only team with a gw30 fixture and a dgw.

Don't you fancy more Wijnaldum?

Iused2likebusts · 09-02-2016 7:30am

iroced wrote: »

Don't you fancy more Wijnaldum?

Depending on the blanks I may get both. The plan would be for townsend to be my bench player. Newcastle are improved and have nice fixtures from gw29 to 34 and will play the blank and have a dgw34.

CSF · 09-02-2016 1:18pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Depending on the blanks I may get both. The plan would be for townsend to be my bench player. Newcastle are improved and have nice fixtures from gw29 to 34 and will play the blank and have a dgw34.

The City game in 34 you're expecting is it?

Iused2likebusts · 09-02-2016 1:19pm

CSF wrote: »

The City game in 34 you're expecting is it?

Ye

CSF · 09-02-2016 1:20pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Ye

Will be watching that Chelsea/City game with interest. It does make me consider a Newcastle player or 2 alright. Would make the transition from 30 to 34 much less steep.

Iused2likebusts · 09-02-2016 1:24pm

CSF wrote: »

Will be watching that Chelsea/City game with interest. It does make me consider a Newcastle player or 2 alright. Would make the transition from 30 to 34 much less steep.

newcastle(already) and city(if they lose) will be key players for us early wildcarders. Its one of the reasons I went elliot in my wildcard.

CSF · 09-02-2016 1:31pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

newcastle(already) and city(if they lose) will be key players for us early wildcarders. Its one of the reasons I went elliot in my wildcard.

Are Newcastle not also reliant on the City loss? I've already wasted my bench boost so I just need to make sure I have 11 DGW players for GW34

Ziegler1988 · 09-02-2016 1:52pm

Hoping West Ham win tonight since then either Chelsea-Liverpool or Norwich-Man City is guaranteed to go ahead

CSF wrote: »

Are Newcastle not also reliant on the City loss? I've already wasted my bench boost so I just need to make sure I have 11 DGW players for GW34

Newcastle have a guaranteed GW30 fixture and DGW34 (most likely). Also guaranteed GW35 if Liverpool lose

Iused2likebusts · 09-02-2016 2:01pm

CSF wrote: »

Are Newcastle not also reliant on the City loss? I've already wasted my bench boost so I just need to make sure I have 11 DGW players for GW34

11 dgw players will be enough and it's all most will have. Get 3 of your single gw players as vardez and Leicester defender decent fixture in gw 34 and a guaranteed gw 35 fixture.

CSF · 09-02-2016 3:08pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

11 dgw players will be enough and it's all most will have. Get 3 of your single gw players as vardez and Leicester defender decent fixture in gw 34 and a guaranteed gw 35 fixture.

I'll only be able to field 11 players total in Gw34

Iused2likebusts · 09-02-2016 4:08pm

CSF wrote: »

I'll only be able to field 11 players total in Gw34

Oh ye forgot about that

CSF · 09-02-2016 7:04pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Oh ye forgot about that

Sussed out my path to 34 on my bus home from work there. If Chelsea and Everton win their cup ties I will be fine to go 11 in GW27/GW30 and 11 DGW 34, without a points hit and with one transfer to spare for injuries/changes of heart etc.

This does depend on the Newcastle v City game being in 34 though. I'll be starting off with transfers that carry no fixture risk ie. Leicester transfer in and keeping City transfers in until GW29 when they've Villa at home and the FA Cup picture has become clearer.

km79 · 09-02-2016 8:51pm

What are we hoping for I west ham pool game ????

CSF · 09-02-2016 9:09pm

km79 wrote: »

What are we hoping for I west ham pool game ????

West Ham win for me. Means I'll have a goalkeeper in GW30 no matter what. Rudd (unless he gets dropped) or Courtois.

km79 · 09-02-2016 9:23pm

CSF wrote: »

West Ham win for me. Means I'll have a goalkeeper in GW30 no matter what. Rudd (unless he gets dropped) or Courtois.

Ok so as a Payet owner and no pool I want pool to win ?they wud then have 2 dgws though ?

Ziegler1988 · 09-02-2016 11:22pm

4th guaranteed fixture for GW30: Liverpool-Chelsea or Norwich-Man City
West Ham v Watford very high chance of blank since they're both playing Championship sides

Liverpool-Newcastle guaranteed fixture for GW35

Neil3030 · 09-02-2016 11:22pm

So can we now say that West Ham will blank in GW 30 and double in GW 34?

FHFC · 10-02-2016 12:26am

Neil3030 wrote: »

So can we now say that West Ham will blank in GW 30 and double in GW 34?

Not until they beat Blackburn or Watford beat Leeds.

In case anyone not following it from further up this thread already it's all here with chances of blanks based on cup odds plus explanation of the scenario for each blank...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zcb5jGdVitByKQ8R1X4gcEBpiNY9qbLylr72btlTubc/edit?usp=docslist_api

iroced · 10-02-2016 12:46am

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

4th guaranteed fixture for GW30: Liverpool-Chelsea or Norwich-Man City
West Ham v Watford very high chance of blank since they're both playing Championship sides

Liverpool-Newcastle guaranteed fixture for GW35

FHFC wrote: »

Not until they beat Blackburn or Watford beat Leeds.

In case anyone not following it from further up this thread already it's all here with chances of blanks based on cup odds plus explanation of the scenario for each blank...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zcb5jGdVitByKQ8R1X4gcEBpiNY9qbLylr72btlTubc/edit?usp=docslist_api

Lads I called this game off long ago :pac:! Watford at home to Leeds. Pretty much safe in PL. I can see them playing the Cup very seriously!

FHFC · 10-02-2016 12:50am

iroced wrote: »

Lads I called this game off long ago :pac:! Watford at home to Leeds. Pretty much safe in PL. I can see them playing the Cup very seriously!

Yeah in fairness its 93% likely to be off based on the FA Cup odds.

iroced · 10-02-2016 12:54am

Now as a WCer I'm not yet sure who to shout for in the Chelsea-City game... City getting another game to reschedule should be in favour of WCers but Liverpool not having a blank is not. Many Firmino & Moreno owners out there.

Ziegler1988 · 10-02-2016 1:12am

iroced wrote: »

Now as a WCer I'm not yet sure who to shout for in the Chelsea-City game... City getting another game to reschedule should be in favour of WCers but Liverpool not having a blank is not. Many Firmino & Moreno owners out there.

I think I want Chelsea since it gives us with Aguero more power. Rather than having to hold him for GW27 and 30 blanks we can captain him away to Norwich and possibly gain on people captaining Vardez home to Newcastle

Bleating Lamb · 10-02-2016 1:12am

Currently have 3 West Ham Players...is it time to start dumping one after that cup result?

Ziegler1988 · 10-02-2016 1:13am

Bleating Lamb wrote: »

Currently have 3 West Ham Players...is it time to start dumping one after that cup result?

After nor, SUN yes and maybe even defenders now since three went off injured

Bleating Lamb · 10-02-2016 1:19am

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

After nor, SUN yes and maybe even defenders now since three went off injured

Have Payet,Antonio and Cresswell.....
Waiting impatiently for Payet to restart scoring FPL wise:)......
Antonio could bring returns in next two games.
Might look at shipping out Cresswell.

Double Gameweek Planning

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