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FSA "How to maximise the new chips use" thread
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But you're not playing the game alone and comparing your outcome with what it could have been had you better theoretically used your chips and made your choices. You're competing against 3.7m randomers! And in mini-leagues, you're competing against real opponents and I don't understand how you can say their choices don't matter at all.
My point is not to make a "rule" of the above example but I always found that your theoretical ("bustian" should become an FPL adjective
) view of the game is incomplete and/or idealistic.
(*) To give my above example even more context, 2 seasons ago I battled for the whole season with a friend of mine to eventually win our mini-league by 7 pts. For the sake of my obsessive demonstration, let's say I won by 4 pts instead. We had a similar enough team for the whole season. The difference was a couple of (C) choices and a few differentials. So, if I apply our situaton then to my example with FHFC, my "5 relative pts gain" over him from our TC choice gave me top spot despite a lower absolute TC return.Iused2likebusts wrote: »Their choices don't matter because I can't control their choices I can only control what I do. Of course I prefer if others choices don't work out but there is nothing I can do about it. You try and maximize your overall score and the best way of doing that is by putting tc on the player you think will score the most points in the game week you think it will get you most points.
I agree with Busts but also agree with Iroced that he's not going far enough.
Yes you can only pick your own TC, and Bust is spot on in terms of analysing the differences in the outcomes of the TC against the options YOU have for playing it.
But the other players "choices don't matter" bit is completely wrong imo. Yes you can't control their choices, but in terms of your OR or your mini league rival, their choices matter entirely, and comparing how you maximised your TC return to your rival's, or in terms of OR to every other FPL manager is very relevant.Let's say you and I have the exact same team for the whole season, bar GW37. In 37 you get Coutinho & Lanzini. I get Payet & Milner. Let's say Lanzini & Milner score the same. And in 38 our different players score the same again. Let's also assume we BB & AOA the same GW (which is not 37) and we always captain the same players bar GW33 you TC Lukaku (I just (C) him) and 37 I TC Payet, you (C) Coutinho.
Or to make it more realistic let's say we did not make all these same choices neither had the same team but ended up on the exact same amount of pts (*) and our season comes down to your Lukaku TC vs my Lukaku (C) in 33 and my Payet TC vs your Coutinho (C) in 37.
With the previous figures. Lukaku 20 pts in 33. Coutinho 10 pts in 37, Payet 15 pts in 37.
GW33: you get 60 pts from Lukaku. I only get 40. You gain 20 pts on me.
GW37: you get 20 pts from Coutinho. I get 45 pts from Payet. I gain 25 pts on you.
Your TC was "absolutely" 5 pts better than mine. But "relatively" I'll finish the season 5 pts ahead of you because I "relatively" gained more from my TC GW.
I think this "case study" was what lougal had in mind in his example.
@Iroced, sorry but your analysis, which is trying to look at TC outcomes, is still irrelevant because you are including our different choice of "normal captain" in your outcome. It is a mathematical fact, not an opinion, that we all only get ONE TC bonus per season so the difference between us based on when we activate the TC chip is based ONLY on the difference in that "C" number.
In the example you give here is how I would break it down (reminding that I've to date called your Normal Captain bonus "B" and TC bonus "C"):- In GW33 we both got the same "B" and I also got my one off "C" of 20 points because I activated my TC chip on my captain selection.
- In GW37 I lost 5 points due to my decision to NORMAL captain Coutinho rather than Payet - you gain 5 "B" points only based on us picking a different player that we thought would score highest in GW37.
- In GW37 you also got your once off "C" bonus of 15 because you also activated the TC chip on your GW37 captain.
Separately, in terms of our normal captain choices you gained 5 points on me because you picked a higher scoring captain for your "B" points in GW37.
In you example we will end up the same relatively speaking based solely on the captain and triple captain bonus for those 2 gameweek. You will have made more ground on me in GW37 because of a better NORMAL captain choice that week. The calculation is:
You got 20(B GW33) + 15 (B GW37)+ 15 (C GW37) = 50
I got 20(B GW33) + 20 (C GW37)+ 10 (B GW37) = 50
How we finish relative to each other will be affected by our selection of the other players in our teams, any by our varying captain choices in the other 37 gameweeks.
The fundamental formula here is that your season points total is made up of:
TS (team selections points - what you get for having the right players in your 11 each week)
CP (captain picks, the EXTRA points you get for the one players extra score you get 38 times in the season)
TC (the ONE triple captain score you get)
BB (the 4 extra player scores you get the week you BB)
(I'm going to ignore AOA as it only changes your weakest defender to your weakest attacker)
So TOTAL FPL Points for the season = TS + CP + TC + BB
The CP captain pick points are based on you selecting from the viable captain option in the given gameweek and it is here that ownership, differential or play safe etc affect the total CP number at the end of the season.
But for the TC number, it only matters that your number is biggest, i.e. that of all the players you select to determine your TC bonus you pick the highest one available across the 38 weeks. Differential or ownership have no relevance.
The more I look at this analysis the more I see that the impact of the BB and TC chips in terms of your overall season is vastly overrated - just like Busts said a long time ago.0 -
A follow up from post #12 from this thread
Original point was "considering everyone will captain Lukaku this week, am I not better going for a more differential TC in 37?"Iused2likebusts wrote: »Their choices don't matter because I can't control their choices I can only control what I do. Of course I prefer if others choices don't work out but there is nothing I can do about it. You try and maximize your overall score and the best way of doing that is by putting tc on the player you think will score the most points in the game week you think it will get you most points. In your example FHFC is still going to captain Coutinho over Payet so thats irrelevant.
FHFC & yourself replied that in theory it doesn't matter. What matters is how much your TC will gain you when you'll play it.
I tried to give an example to ilustrate how lougal "unmathematically correct" idea could work (without implying unrealistic returns), partly based on my season 2 years ago.
Now you tell me it's irrelevant because the GW37 TC don't suit the theory. Are we all gonna (C) the same player in 37 like we'll end up doing this week? I'd be very surprised if so!
Anyway, I'll say again that I agree with the/your theory but I'm willing to defend lougal's original point that deserves more credit, in my opinion. Because 1) it could very well match your theory (Payet or someone else could very well get a better GW37 return than Lukaku in GW33) and 2) even if this decision fails in absolute terms, it could still work out in the end if the differential GW37 TC is succeeds.
Right. This is exactly what I was willing to mean. I phrased it wrong (I'm gonna take the excuse that after all I'm French so you try writing this down in Molière's language nowIn the example you give here is how I would break it down (reminding that I've to date called your Normal Captain bonus "B" and TC bonus "C"):- In GW33 we both got the same "B" and I also got my one off "C" of 20 points because I activated my TC chip on my captain selection.
- In GW37 I lost 5 points due to my decision to NORMAL captain Coutinho rather than Payet - you gain 5 "B" points only based on us picking a different player that we thought would score highest in GW37.
- In GW37 you also got your once off "C" bonus of 15 because you also activated the TC chip on your GW37 captain.
Separately, in terms of our normal captain choices you gained 5 points on me because you picked a higher scoring captain for your "B" points in GW37. :pac:) and yeah did mix up TC with C but yeah that's precsiely why I'm insisting on lougal's original post that does deserve credit, even if like mine, his post was not mathematically correctly put 
.
If I go into politics one day, I'll ask you to write my speeches
!
- edit -
Just to come back to "our" example, In GW37 don't I gain 5 A pts on you too since we don't own the same captain?0 -
A follow up from post #12 from this thread
Original point was "considering everyone will captain Lukaku this week, am I not better going for a more differential TC in 37?"
FHFC & yourself replied that in theory it doesn't matter. What matters is how much your TC will gain you when you'll play it.
I tried to give an example to ilustrate how lougal "unmathematically correct" idea could work (without implying unrealistic returns), partly based on my season 2 years ago.
Now you tell me it's irrelevant because the GW37 TC don't suit the theory. Are we all gonna (C) the same player in 37 like we'll end up doing this week? I'd be very surprised if so!
Anyway, I'll say again that I agree with the/your theory but I'm willing to defend lougal's original point that deserves more credit, in my opinion. Because 1) it could very well match your theory (Payet or someone else could very well get a better GW37 return than Lukaku in GW33) and 2) even if this decision fails in absolute terms, it could still work out in the end if the differential GW37 TC is succeeds.Right. This is exactly what I was willing to mean. I phrased it wrong (I'm gonna take the excuse that after all I'm French so you try writing this down in Molière's language now :pac:) and yeah did mix up TC with C but yeah that's precsiely why I'm insisting on lougal original post that does deserve credit, even if like mine, his post was not mathematically correctly put .
If I go into politics one day, you'll be the one writing my speeches!
- edit -
Just to come back to "our" example, In GW37 don't I gain 5 A pts on you too since we don't own the same captain?
As above, Lougal's original point (and your example) is relevant to the normal captain bonus, not to the TC bonus - edit see bold above. This is my point, you (and lougal) are mixing up TC and C (or B and C)
As for your edit, yes I didn't notice that in your example we didn't own the opposing captains. So you are confusing the matter even further by including Player ownership (TS) points as well as normal captain (CP) points in your analysis of Triple Captain (TC) outcomes!!!
I really need to do some work (for which I get paid) now.0 -
A follow up from post #12 from this thread
Original point was "considering everyone will captain Lukaku this week, am I not better going for a more differential TC in 37?"
FHFC & yourself replied that in theory it doesn't matter. What matters is how much your TC will gain you when you'll play it.
I tried to give an example to ilustrate how lougal "unmathematically correct" idea could work (without implying unrealistic returns), partly based on my season 2 years ago.
Now you tell me it's irrelevant because the GW37 TC don't suit the theory. Are we all gonna (C) the same player in 37 like we'll end up doing this week? I'd be very surprised if so!
Anyway, I'll say again that I agree with the/your theory but I'm willing to defend lougal's original point that deserves more credit, in my opinion. Because 1) it could very well match your theory (Payet or someone else could very well get a better GW37 return than Lukaku in GW33) and 2) even if this decision fails in absolute terms, it could still work out in the end if the differential GW37 TC is succeeds.
Right. This is exactly what I was willing to mean. I phrased it wrong (I'm gonna take the excuse that after all I'm French so you try writing this down in Molière's language now :pac:) and yeah did mix up TC with C but yeah that's precsiely why I'm insisting on lougal's original post that does deserve credit, even if like mine, his post was not mathematically correctly put .
If I go into politics one day, I'll ask you to write my speeches!
- edit -
Just to come back to "our" example, In GW37 don't I gain 5 A pts on you too since we don't own the same captain?
WHAT HAVE I STARTED???
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Well, an interesting debate (at least to me) since I can't TC Lukaku on 33 (I'm currently WCing) and, after my infamous WC fail last GW, you somehow boosted me up towards a hopeful gigantically successful GW37 TC :pac:!
I certainly started a debate!
And thank you kind sir for wording my failed argument a lot better than I managed in my mother tongue :P
Basically I think that although FHFC points out the TC is an absolute, and if my TC performs better than yours/others it can be viewed as a win, I still think there is more to be gained by captaining the player when most others will captain him anyway and put the TC on a slight differential.
Of course it can blow up and my punty TC can fail, but that's what this whole season is about. For the same reason I captained Wijnaldum in a home game just before Xmas. Of course I got the wrong game and missed one of his explosions, but no risk no reward.0 -
Iused2likebusts wrote: »TBH you are approaching it from the statistico maximum pts angle.
. The statistico website is all about you and your choices. It actually tells you what were your best picks. Maybe you did not consider them so fair enough you missed them out but everytime you were on a 50/50 decisions it tells you if you got it right or wrong.
I don't think that's the approach I expressed neither it is how I play the game. I just said that I don't agree with the "other people choices don't matter". FHFC nailed my point down in his last post.
In fairness I haven't checked the statictico website for ages now. I'll definitely save my season outcome since I do think there are interesting figures to be analysed there. I used to track and build a much simpler file myself and it helped me change some tactics (e.g. GKs, (C) choices like a default one or changing every week, etc...) so now I can relax since a website does the job for me
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. The statistico website is all about you and your choices. It actually tells you what were your best picks. Maybe you did not consider them so fair enough you missed them out but everytime you were on a 50/50 decisions it tells you if you got it right or wrong.
I don't think that's the approach I expressed neither it is how I play the game. I just said that I don't agree with the "other people choices don't matter". FHFC nailed my point down in his last post.
In fairness I haven't checked the statictico website for ages now. I'll definitely save my season outcome since I do think there are interesting figures to be analysed there. I used to track and build a much simpler file myself and it helped me change some tactics (e.g. GKs, (C) choices like a default one or changing every week, etc...) so now I can relax since a website does the job for me.
It was just you made reference to my theory being like the statistico approach whereas Id feel the way you are coming at it is a statistico approach. Im not saying you approach the playing of the game in that way. Just I feel your theory is based on the best possible outcome which is beyond our control as we have to make our choices before the event.0 -
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Iused2likebusts wrote: »Excellent and spot on
You should be listed under references in fairness! You started grumbling about this months ago!! 0 -
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Iused2likebusts wrote: »wait till gw35 when someone with 10 players suggests a 4 pt hit isnt really a 4 pt hit;)
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