FSA "How to maximise the new chips use" thread

FHFC

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

Lets look at potential gains from a well played BB. Assuming you play it in a DGW with a squad packed with Double players you are likely to get 4 players extra with 2 matches each. As these are the players you would otherwise bench it won’t be the big hitters scores we are counting here.

The part above is what i wouldn't agree with. Especially the last part. I wildcarded and had a very healthy team value. I haven't made huge changes as i had a number of players people are bringing in. And in my opinion I have upgraded my "bench players" taking fixtures and form into account as well as just being DGW players.

For example,

Courtois, Hennessy - Out
Mignolet, Robles - In

Azpi, Wollscheid, Williams and Alderwerield - Out
Smalling, Bellerin, Gabriel, Evans - In

Siggy, Eriksen, Westwood - Out
Coutinho, Payet, Barkley - In

Kane, Vardy - Out
Lukaku, Martial - In

They are all transfers I could have made in a single game week and when you take the extra game into account my bench players have been improved. I'm not crazy about Barkley and may change. But he's an upgrade on Westwood for sure. Also add to the fact he has 3 extra games than Westwood. I'm also left with 9 players for GW35 with 2 FT. Assuming no injuries I should field 11 with no hits.

I agree with the essence of what you are saying and there probably is too much stock being put into the doubles and chips. But if you can create a balanced team without disrupting things too much. It can work here better than any other spot in the season.

I'm in no way debating that a dgw after wildcarding is not the best way to maximise the BB. The statement you quoted simply says that the 4 extra players, your bench, that I am counting as your BB extra points are going to be (from your example) the likes of Gabriel, Evans and Barkley rather than Aguero and Sanchez. Hence I went on to use 4ppg as a metric rather than a higher figure you might hope for from a 'big hitter'.

steve_r

I enjoyed the article. Hopefully it gets a wider audience.

The big takeaway I took from it was the importance (and difficulty) of captaincy choices. There's acres of good coverage on this forum about DGW planning, gw transfers, use of chips etc but I'm starting to feel that level of detail should be geared towards the captaincy choices.

There was a thread a while back on people's sucess rate picking captains which depressed the hell out of me. I think it's a very hard thing to get right. My own approach has been defensive in that I stick with the pack, and the pack tends to go with either a premium player (e.g Aguero) or a player with a very good fixture (H to Aston Villa). Most weeks I end up wishing I went with the likes of Payet, or a defender who is playing well who chips in with the odd assist (e.g. Fuchs this week). Generally a few of my squad will outscore my captain.


Back on topic regarding the new chips, it will be interesting to see how it all washes out in the end. I'd agree with the thrust of the article in thinking it'll be marginal in the end with other factors having a much greater importance.

It's a game within a game for me. It seems at this stage the accepted forum consensus is WC, then either BB or TC in a DGW. I think the logic is sound, but if the DGW's turn out to be a damp squib then maybe people will lean towards a different approach next year!

FHFC

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2016/04/06/chips-versus-bread-butter-fantasy-management/

Iused2likebusts

FHFC wrote: »

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2016/04/06/chips-versus-bread-butter-fantasy-management/

Good stuff I wouldn't have let them know about the number 1 fantasy football resource this forum though.

Iused2likebusts

Reading some of the comments on it. People again are failing to take into account that the people that arent using the chips now used them at another timeand benefitted from it then.

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Reading some of the comments on it. People again are failing to take into account that the people that arent using the chips now used them at another timeand benefitted from it then.

Ony getting time to look at it now as was in meetings. Most of the comments are quite favourable. Was actually expecting it to be torn apart a bit by the FFS heads.

And how could I not credit the FSA. Don't think we're gonna have a huge influx of FFS lads looking to pick our brains somehow!

iroced

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Reading some of the comments on it. People again are failing to take into account that the people that arent using the chips now used them at another timeand benefitted from it then.

Benefitted or not !!!

How many wasted chips have all you guys been posting each week. Of course there were a couple of Aguero vs Newcastle TC but for what I remember many were "wasted". And even if they weren't. You have to factor that... what is the exact figure? 50%? of the top 10k already used them. So someone like you who's well inside top 10k have a HUGE advantage on them. And people like me, way way behind have a tiny hope of making it with exceptional returns from the chips!

FHFC

iroced wrote: »

Benefitted or not !!!

How many wasted chips have all you guys been posting each week. Of course there were a couple of Aguero vs Newcastle TC but for what I remember many were "wasted". And even if they weren't. You have to factor that... what is the exact figure? 50%? of the top 10k already used them. So someone like you who's well inside top 10k have a HUGE advantage on them. And people like me, way way behind have a tiny hope of making it with exceptional returns from the chips!

Of course you have an advantage by having your chips from here forward. Which is what a lot of people are saying on Ffs and the article doesn't say you don't. If course you should try to maximise them and play them well.

My piece effectively just says we shouldn't build our whole season around them.

And if you did "waste" your TC it probably cost you maybe 20 points on average. The TC is just one extra captain score and messing it up is no worse that getting the captain wrong any given week.

Iused2likebusts

iroced wrote: »

Benefitted or not !!!

How many wasted chips have all you guys been posting each week. Of course there were a couple of Aguero vs Newcastle TC but for what I remember many were "wasted". And even if they weren't. You have to factor that... what is the exact figure? 50%? of the top 10k already used them. So someone like you who's well inside top 10k have a HUGE advantage on them. And people like me, way way behind have a tiny hope of making it with exceptional returns from the chips!

They should have benefitted whether they did or not we couldn't predict beforehand. The same way a person bb in 34 with 15 players should benefit. If they don't it doesn't make it a bad decision. I don't approach this game in terms of outcome I think of what should I do to give me the best chance. Anything can happen on any given game week. My worst gw rank of the season was probably the week of my second wildcard I had a strong team it was just one of those weeks when players didn't deliver. My thoughts on all these chips since Xmas when I really had a good think about it has remained the same.
Aoa use whenever it's of no benefit.
2nd wildcard hold for the dgws once you are happy with your team. If your not happy with your team play it as you should benefit in the short term to help offset the difficulties you may face around dgws.
Tc has to be played in a dgw. The people that got the monster score in a sgw from aguero still made the wrong decision Imo.
BB ideally is played in a dgw like 34 to give yourself maximum advantage with at least 13dgw players without decimating your gw35 team. If no wildcard play when the fixtures suit your squad. People with a wildcard a few weeks back were talking about playing BB with 5 sgw players. They had held the wildcard so long to only half go for it. This has changed the past week and a lot more teams have more dgw players now.
There is a train of thought that the late wildcard, gw 34 bb and Tc will bring a huge bonanza in pts. From where we are now it should and people should rise the rankings. The flip side of that is that when other people wildcarded , bb and Tc they should also have made gains which some people seem to be forgetting about.

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

2nd wildcard hold for the dgws once you are happy with your team. If your not happy with your team play it as you should benefit in the short term to help offset the difficulties you may face around dgws.

Exactly, I posted this on FFS earlier in the only comment I did put up under the article. Some people may have held on grimly to the wildcard with their team in trouble, in the expectation of this illusion of a huge DGW score. Playing a wildcard when it was needed may have gained more than the 60 points or so you might gain from the Wildcard/chip combo. You proved this, although Charlie fupping Daniels skews your scores a bit!!
In my case my team was flying in Jan and Feb, I won several monthly prizes, so it suited me to hold the WC.

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Tc has to be played in a dgw. The people that got the monster score in a sgw from aguero still made the wrong decision Imo.

Correct. Especially given his form at the time it was a daft decision. It may well up being the best result but you have to play the odds in this game and use it when statistically you're more likely to have a big score.

iroced

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

The flip side of that is that when other people wildcarded , bb and Tc they should also have made gains which some people seem to be forgetting about.

Yes but we don't care anymore now. You are 4507th with BB & TC intact. If 50% of top 10k players have no chips left, you have a greater chance to gain further ground this year than in previous seasons. If you're competing in a league with such guys, you're in a better position than them. That's my point. It doesn't mean you'll take advantage. But I'd rather be in your position than in theirs.

And, if I take my own example, I think I should be around 50k with my 21 pts wasted from my failed WC. I'd have been pretty happy to be in that position (and confident enough to make another top 10k finish) considering my season and the choices I made so far. I still think I was right regarding chips. I don't think my team needed my WC earlier. I just made more bad choices than good ones this season, particularly regarding my captain (certainly my worst season in that regard). Now, after such a fail last week, I'm gonna need a miracle. I'm gonna try help it happening as much as I can but I'm not really hopeful .

FHFC wrote: »

Some people may have held on grimly to the wildcard with their team in trouble, in the expectation of this illusion of a huge DGW score. Playing a wildcard when it was needed may have gained more than the 60 points or so you might gain from the Wildcard/chip combo. You proved this, although Charlie fupping Daniels skews your scores a bit!!

Too bad for them. But with regards to such responses you got, I don't think many "serious" players did that. I mean has anyone on this forum delayed a January or February WC because of the potential huge DGW bonanza?
I'd say, like ever for a WC, if you need adjustments (way) over an 8 pts hit you'd better using it.
Like you, my team was in good shape then and I did not see the use to WC. I'd actually have been in trouble if the chips had not been implemented since I'd have probably ended up WCing just for the sake of it (there's always a couple of adjusments to make).

And Busts, as much as I rate him as a FPL player is experiencing a Leicester-like season. Things are overall turning his way. I think he had a completely different season 2 years ago, a season where things pretty much turned my way.

Iused2likebusts

Apart from daniels having an unbelievable unexpected run and getting ayew off the bench with a double digit score my season has been fairly standard.

Ziegler1988

Season tallies
AOA: 0 or 8 points
TC: 4 points
BB: 35 points

Iused2likebusts

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Season tallies
AOA: 0 or 8 points
TC: 4 points
BB: 35 points

That's a huge BB score...who did u have

Ziegler1988

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

That's a huge BB score...who did u have

Darlow, Dann, Sakho, Bolasie. Would have started Gabriel, Bellerin, Cresswell over Sakho

FHFC

Its hard to accurately quantify the BB score when you have your team set up for it with a strong 15.

But had i taken a notuon to TC instead then from my lot this week I'd be pretty certain my bench would have been Robles, Bolasie, Gabriel and Sahko. Would have almost certainly benched the 2 gametime risk defenders where I was already doubled on those defences. I was sure Fosu Mensah would play at least 1 and with a rival doubled on Utd I wanted to play him. Although if not going BB I'd have made different transfers (maybe Sahko to Smalling rather than Delaney to Fosu) so as I say its not 100%. But based on my 15 for this week:

AOA: 13
TC: 4
BB: 34 + Gabriel's score tomorrow.

IsMiseMyself

My BB was a bit of a damp squib. I had Pelle (2 week punt including next week - so it's yet to see if he's a fail!), Gabriel, Delaney and Robles. They're at 12 points. Obviously I wished I'd TCed Aguero, but I set up for this and it ended okay. (Well...depending on Gabriel tonight!)

spock.

AOA: 1 point, Vardy 7 over Souare 6
TC: 11 points, Aguero against Villa
BB: 22 points, Hennessey, Otamendi, Milner and Fuchs this week.

Rikand

The way my season is working, i'm not going to AOA at all.

Just no time that's really feasible for it

siblers

The AOA is the weakest chip imo, when I used mine, one my midfielders didn't play and it reverted back to a 3-5-2, few lads in my leagues lost points by using it on gameweeks when their defenders ended up getting decent scores.

OneColdHand

siblers wrote: »

The AOA is the weakest chip imo, when I used mine, one my midfielders didn't play and it reverted back to a 3-5-2, few lads in my leagues lost points by using it on gameweeks when their defenders ended up getting decent scores.

It's definitely a pretty hit or miss one. I did better than could be expected from the AOA in GW14. Benched Sagna (2pts) and played Bolasie (15pts)!

Necronomicon

siblers wrote: »

The AOA is the weakest chip imo, when I used mine, one my midfielders didn't play and it reverted back to a 3-5-2, few lads in my leagues lost points by using it on gameweeks when their defenders ended up getting decent scores.

Next year it's going to be something I keep in reserve for blanks/injury crisis. It would help me field XI without a hit in GW35 if I still had it.

iroced

Wanna look at the bright side ?
DGW34 BB = 57 pts :pac: (Robles, Sakho, Agüero & Rashford).
After all, my 3 outfield players were doubtful to play both games huhu...

Worst BB would be 13 (-4) pts (Robles, Mitrovic (-4), Delaney, Fosu Mensah)

"Average" BB would be 20 pts (Robles, Bolasie, Delaney) + or - what Gabriel gets tonight.

In reality, and this time I fully agree with FHFC , the way I set up my team with 15 DGWers makes it impossible to assess the real impact of my BB. Again, I'm looking at the big picture. My current BB influenced my GW33 decisions and will impact my GW35 ones. Dare I say it'll influence all my remaining ones.

Ziegler1988

https://fpldiscovery.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/1516-gw-34-final-results/
TC in the top 10k this GW gained 33.1 points on a normal team
BB in the top 10k gained 37.9 points

So basically both chips are most effective in a DGW. Next season, I would probably do everything the same way unless my team needed an early WC to fix it or I would not do so many short term transfers to force a DGW34 BB if my team looked good for a DGW34 TC GW36 WC and DGW37 BB.

Iused2likebusts

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

https://fpldiscovery.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/1516-gw-34-final-results/
TC in the top 10k this GW gained 33.1 points on a normal team
BB in the top 10k gained 37.9 points

So basically both chips are most effective in a DGW. Next season, I would probably do everything the same way unless my team needed an early WC to fix it or I would not do so many short term transfers to force a DGW34 BB if my team looked good for a DGW34 TC GW36 WC and DGW37 BB.

I still have my BB and no way will I keep it this late in the season again. Huge rotation issues particularly for GW 37. Would those gains for BB not be helped by the fact that you wildcard with BB in mind. Lets say you wildcard to BB for a sgw you are likley to get a wildcard boost from having a more suitable 11 players for that gw over a non wildcarder aswell as having the extra 4 players play from your bench. I would say the BB gain this week is from the extra players and the boost of a wildcard.

Ziegler1988

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

https://fpldiscovery.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/1516-gw-34-final-results/
TC in the top 10k this GW gained 33.1 points on a normal team
BB in the top 10k gained 37.9 points

So basically both chips are most effective in a DGW. Next season, I would probably do everything the same way unless my team needed an early WC to fix it or I would not do so many short term transfers to force a DGW34 BB if my team looked good for a DGW34 TC GW36 WC and DGW37 BB.

I still have my BB and no way will I keep it this late in the season again. Huge rotation issues particularly for GW 37. Would those gains for BB not be helped by the fact that you wildcard with BB in mind. Lets say you wildcard to BB for a sgw you are likley to get a wildcard boost from having a more suitable 11 players for that gw over a non wildcarder aswell as having the extra 4 players play from your bench. I would say the BB gain this week is from the extra players and the boost of a wildcard.

It will depend on if FA Cup quarters have Premier League fixtures or not, but I think 37 TCers and BBers will still have seen more points than a SGW BB. Anyone that says they would have started all of the Spurs lads (Kane, Alli, Alder) in a normal XI this week is kidding themselves or is quite conservative on DGWs.

Iused2likebusts

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

It will depend on if FA Cup quarters have Premier League fixtures or not, but I think 37 TCers and BBers will still have seen more points than a SGW BB. Anyone that says they would have started all of the Spurs lads (Kane, Alli, Alder) in a normal XI this week is kidding themselves or is quite conservative on DGWs.

There is no way I'd have started more than 1 SGW player in a starting eleven if I had a wildcard. I would have sold Kane due to finances but would have kept Alli mahrez and a Leicester defender. I think I'd have started one of them and 10 what I felt guaranteed dgw players along with the TC. That's the approach I'll hope to go with next year as you say though next year there will be less doubles so we will need to reassess things when we see the fixtures. The problem with an all in BB is you are limiting yourself to half the teams in the league when selecting your players. Next year there will more than likely only be 6 or 8 teams to pick from in the equivalent dgw to this one.

Ziegler1988

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

https://fpldiscovery.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/1516-gw-34-final-results/
TC in the top 10k this GW gained 33.1 points on a normal team
BB in the top 10k gained 37.9 points

This week's stats:
TC +21.5
BB +23.7

Not sure what we can draw from these stats, BB34 TC37 slightly ahead I guess

alchemist33

If Liverpool win the Europa and there's a dgw in gw1, I may well use a chip in the first week if I can find fifteen players who are nailed. There'd be less uncertainty than using BB late on.

Iused2likebusts

alchemist33 wrote: »

If Liverpool win the Europa and there's a dgw in gw1, I may well use a chip in the first week if I can find fifteen players who are nailed. There'd be less uncertainty than using BB late on.

i think the super cup is on before the pl starts next season so no early dgw.