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FSA "How to maximise the new chips use" thread

iroced

Just to follow-up the debate that started in the "Price Changes" thread. Maybe a mod can move the posts here?

Basically the discussion focused around waiting for a late DGW to use the Bench Boost (BB) chip after a planned WC or use it any random GW when it suits well your current team.

We have to bear in mind chips can't be use while playing (y)our WC and there's also the Triple Captain (TC) & potentially the All Out Attack (AOA) chips to be used ; initially we also thought better for a DGW (particularly for the former).

If you mix all these things together, I think the ideal scenario would be a situation like last year or 3 years ago if memory serves me right where 2 late and significantly big DGWs happen 2 to 3 GWs apart with a rather important blank GW at least 2 GWs before the first DGW, such that you can work out a (perfect on paper) plan to use all 4 chips one after each other.

Below is one potentially "perfect" scenario to plan (roughly it mirrors how I played, without the chips, the successive late blanks-DGWs last season and apart from 1 DGW that I foolishly snobed, it worked a treat for me).

AOA for the blank GW by gradually stocking on attackers from the playing teams.
WC to build your strong XV for the first DGW.
BB for the first DGW (in this scenario this would be the bigger one of the 2 and you could really get a XV DGW squad e.g. Leicester cheap defensive cover would have been great last year for that purpose)
TC for the second DGW

So, what's your point of view?

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Iused2likebusts

ElTel wrote: »

Thinking of using AOA chip.
So would benching Ake (Sakhn and Ward other subs) and playing my Fr8 be a good move this week?
Mahrez Ozil/Firmino Alli Payet KDB
Aguero Vardy Lukaku

Wouldl be benching Ozil (or Lukaku if I bring in Firmino) otherwise.
Thanking you in advance.

Great week to use it.

sheroman01

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Great week to use it.

It seemed so :P! Such a waste. Alli with 2, Ozil 0, Lukaku 2. Ah well, it's more of a punt-y chip, wouldn't think many will benefit hugely from it.

FrClintPower

sheroman01 wrote: »

It seemed so :P! Such a waste. Alli with 2, Ozil 0, Lukaku 2. Ah well, it's more of a punt-y chip, wouldn't think many will benefit hugely from it.

I'm just keeping it in case, for some bizarre reason, I only have two playing defenders.

ElTel

ElTel wrote: »

Thinking of using AOA chip.
So would benching Ake (Sakho and Ward other subs) and playing my Fr8 be a good move this week?
Mahrez Ozil/Firmino Alli Payet KDB
Aguero Vardy Lukaku

Wouldl be benching Ozil (or Lukaku if I bring in Firmino) otherwise.
Thanking you in advance.

No points lost or gained but chip is gone, No transfers used up and have 2 FTs this week.

Ziegler1988

Played AOA this GW. Bit more complicated since I only moved to a strong front 8 to use it this week and navigate blanks but would have benched Alli (5 points) or Payet (13 points) and ended up benching Fuchs (5 points). So no gain or 8 point gain from the chip

FHFC

iroced wrote: »

But you're not playing the game alone and comparing your outcome with what it could have been had you better theoretically used your chips and made your choices. You're competing against 3.7m randomers! And in mini-leagues, you're competing against real opponents and I don't understand how you can say their choices don't matter at all.

My point is not to make a "rule" of the above example but I always found that your theoretical ("bustian" should become an FPL adjective ) view of the game is incomplete and/or idealistic.

(*) To give my above example even more context, 2 seasons ago I battled for the whole season with a friend of mine to eventually win our mini-league by 7 pts. For the sake of my obsessive demonstration, let's say I won by 4 pts instead. We had a similar enough team for the whole season. The difference was a couple of (C) choices and a few differentials. So, if I apply our situaton then to my example with FHFC, my "5 relative pts gain" over him from our TC choice gave me top spot despite a lower absolute TC return.

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Their choices don't matter because I can't control their choices I can only control what I do. Of course I prefer if others choices don't work out but there is nothing I can do about it. You try and maximize your overall score and the best way of doing that is by putting tc on the player you think will score the most points in the game week you think it will get you most points.

I agree with Busts but also agree with Iroced that he's not going far enough.

Yes you can only pick your own TC, and Bust is spot on in terms of analysing the differences in the outcomes of the TC against the options YOU have for playing it.

But the other players "choices don't matter" bit is completely wrong imo. Yes you can't control their choices, but in terms of your OR or your mini league rival, their choices matter entirely, and comparing how you maximised your TC return to your rival's, or in terms of OR to every other FPL manager is very relevant.

iroced wrote: »

Let's say you and I have the exact same team for the whole season, bar GW37. In 37 you get Coutinho & Lanzini. I get Payet & Milner. Let's say Lanzini & Milner score the same. And in 38 our different players score the same again. Let's also assume we BB & AOA the same GW (which is not 37) and we always captain the same players bar GW33 you TC Lukaku (I just (C) him) and 37 I TC Payet, you (C) Coutinho.
Or to make it more realistic let's say we did not make all these same choices neither had the same team but ended up on the exact same amount of pts (*) and our season comes down to your Lukaku TC vs my Lukaku (C) in 33 and my Payet TC vs your Coutinho (C) in 37.

With the previous figures. Lukaku 20 pts in 33. Coutinho 10 pts in 37, Payet 15 pts in 37.

GW33: you get 60 pts from Lukaku. I only get 40. You gain 20 pts on me.
GW37: you get 20 pts from Coutinho. I get 45 pts from Payet. I gain 25 pts on you.
Your TC was "absolutely" 5 pts better than mine. But "relatively" I'll finish the season 5 pts ahead of you because I "relatively" gained more from my TC GW.

I think this "case study" was what lougal had in mind in his example.

@Iroced, sorry but your analysis, which is trying to look at TC outcomes, is still irrelevant because you are including our different choice of "normal captain" in your outcome. It is a mathematical fact, not an opinion, that we all only get ONE TC bonus per season so the difference between us based on when we activate the TC chip is based ONLY on the difference in that "C" number.

In the example you give here is how I would break it down (reminding that I've to date called your Normal Captain bonus "B" and TC bonus "C"):

In GW33 we both got the same "B" and I also got my one off "C" of 20 points because I activated my TC chip on my captain selection.
In GW37 I lost 5 points due to my decision to NORMAL captain Coutinho rather than Payet - you gain 5 "B" points only based on us picking a different player that we thought would score highest in GW37.
In GW37 you also got your once off "C" bonus of 15 because you also activated the TC chip on your GW37 captain.

So in terms of our decisions when to activate the triple captain chip - I have gained 5 points on you by picking a higher scoring player from the 38 weeks I had to choose from.
Separately, in terms of our normal captain choices you gained 5 points on me because you picked a higher scoring captain for your "B" points in GW37.

In you example we will end up the same relatively speaking based solely on the captain and triple captain bonus for those 2 gameweek. You will have made more ground on me in GW37 because of a better NORMAL captain choice that week. The calculation is:
You got 20(B GW33) + 15 (B GW37)+ 15 (C GW37) = 50
I got 20(B GW33) + 20 (C GW37)+ 10 (B GW37) = 50

How we finish relative to each other will be affected by our selection of the other players in our teams, any by our varying captain choices in the other 37 gameweeks.

The fundamental formula here is that your season points total is made up of:

TS (team selections points - what you get for having the right players in your 11 each week)
CP (captain picks, the EXTRA points you get for the one players extra score you get 38 times in the season)
TC (the ONE triple captain score you get)
BB (the 4 extra player scores you get the week you BB)
(I'm going to ignore AOA as it only changes your weakest defender to your weakest attacker)

So TOTAL FPL Points for the season = TS + CP + TC + BB

The CP captain pick points are based on you selecting from the viable captain option in the given gameweek and it is here that ownership, differential or play safe etc affect the total CP number at the end of the season.

But for the TC number, it only matters that your number is biggest, i.e. that of all the players you select to determine your TC bonus you pick the highest one available across the 38 weeks. Differential or ownership have no relevance.

The more I look at this analysis the more I see that the impact of the BB and TC chips in terms of your overall season is vastly overrated - just like Busts said a long time ago.

iroced

A follow up from post #12 from this thread

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Their choices don't matter because I can't control their choices I can only control what I do. Of course I prefer if others choices don't work out but there is nothing I can do about it. You try and maximize your overall score and the best way of doing that is by putting tc on the player you think will score the most points in the game week you think it will get you most points. In your example FHFC is still going to captain Coutinho over Payet so thats irrelevant.

Original point was "considering everyone will captain Lukaku this week, am I not better going for a more differential TC in 37?"

FHFC & yourself replied that in theory it doesn't matter. What matters is how much your TC will gain you when you'll play it.

I tried to give an example to ilustrate how lougal "unmathematically correct" idea could work (without implying unrealistic returns), partly based on my season 2 years ago.

Now you tell me it's irrelevant because the GW37 TC don't suit the theory. Are we all gonna (C) the same player in 37 like we'll end up doing this week? I'd be very surprised if so!

Anyway, I'll say again that I agree with the/your theory but I'm willing to defend lougal's original point that deserves more credit, in my opinion. Because 1) it could very well match your theory (Payet or someone else could very well get a better GW37 return than Lukaku in GW33) and 2) even if this decision fails in absolute terms, it could still work out in the end if the differential GW37 TC is succeeds.

FHFC wrote: »

In the example you give here is how I would break it down (reminding that I've to date called your Normal Captain bonus "B" and TC bonus "C"):
In GW33 we both got the same "B" and I also got my one off "C" of 20 points because I activated my TC chip on my captain selection.

In GW37 I lost 5 points due to my decision to NORMAL captain Coutinho rather than Payet - you gain 5 "B" points only based on us picking a different player that we thought would score highest in GW37.

In GW37 you also got your once off "C" bonus of 15 because you also activated the TC chip on your GW37 captain.

So in terms of our decisions when to activate the triple captain chip - I have gained 5 points on you by picking a higher scoring player from the 38 weeks I had to choose from.
Separately, in terms of our normal captain choices you gained 5 points on me because you picked a higher scoring captain for your "B" points in GW37.

Right. This is exactly what I was willing to mean. I phrased it wrong (I'm gonna take the excuse that after all I'm French so you try writing this down in Molière's language now

:pac:) and yeah did mix up TC with C but yeah that's precsiely why I'm insisting on lougal's original post that does deserve credit, even if like mine, his post was not mathematically correctly put

.

If I go into politics one day, I'll ask you to write my speeches

!

- edit -
Just to come back to "our" example, In GW37 don't I gain 5 A pts on you too since we don't own the same captain?

FHFC

iroced wrote: »

A follow up from post #12 from this thread

Original point was "considering everyone will captain Lukaku this week, am I not better going for a more differential TC in 37?"

FHFC & yourself replied that in theory it doesn't matter. What matters is how much your TC will gain you when you'll play it.

I tried to give an example to ilustrate how lougal "unmathematically correct" idea could work (without implying unrealistic returns), partly based on my season 2 years ago.

Now you tell me it's irrelevant because the GW37 TC don't suit the theory. Are we all gonna (C) the same player in 37 like we'll end up doing this week? I'd be very surprised if so!

Anyway, I'll say again that I agree with the/your theory but I'm willing to defend lougal's original point that deserves more credit, in my opinion. Because 1) it could very well match your theory (Payet or someone else could very well get a better GW37 return than Lukaku in GW33) and 2) even if this decision fails in absolute terms, it could still work out in the end if the differential GW37 TC is succeeds.

iroced wrote: »

Right. This is exactly what I was willing to mean. I phrased it wrong (I'm gonna take the excuse that after all I'm French so you try writing this down in Molière's language now :pac:) and yeah did mix up TC with C but yeah that's precsiely why I'm insisting on lougal original post that does deserve credit, even if like mine, his post was not mathematically correctly put .

If I go into politics one day, you'll be the one writing my speeches !

- edit -
Just to come back to "our" example, In GW37 don't I gain 5 A pts on you too since we don't own the same captain?

As above, Lougal's original point (and your example) is relevant to the normal captain bonus, not to the TC bonus - edit see bold above. This is my point, you (and lougal) are mixing up TC and C (or B and C

)

As for your edit, yes I didn't notice that in your example we didn't own the opposing captains. So you are confusing the matter even further by including Player ownership (TS) points as well as normal captain (CP) points in your analysis of Triple Captain (TC) outcomes!!!

I really need to do some work (for which I get paid) now.

lougal88

iroced wrote: »

A follow up from post #12 from this thread

Original point was "considering everyone will captain Lukaku this week, am I not better going for a more differential TC in 37?"

FHFC & yourself replied that in theory it doesn't matter. What matters is how much your TC will gain you when you'll play it.

I tried to give an example to ilustrate how lougal "unmathematically correct" idea could work (without implying unrealistic returns), partly based on my season 2 years ago.

Now you tell me it's irrelevant because the GW37 TC don't suit the theory. Are we all gonna (C) the same player in 37 like we'll end up doing this week? I'd be very surprised if so!

Anyway, I'll say again that I agree with the/your theory but I'm willing to defend lougal's original point that deserves more credit, in my opinion. Because 1) it could very well match your theory (Payet or someone else could very well get a better GW37 return than Lukaku in GW33) and 2) even if this decision fails in absolute terms, it could still work out in the end if the differential GW37 TC is succeeds.

Right. This is exactly what I was willing to mean. I phrased it wrong (I'm gonna take the excuse that after all I'm French so you try writing this down in Molière's language now :pac:) and yeah did mix up TC with C but yeah that's precsiely why I'm insisting on lougal's original post that does deserve credit, even if like mine, his post was not mathematically correctly put .

If I go into politics one day, I'll ask you to write my speeches !

- edit -
Just to come back to "our" example, In GW37 don't I gain 5 A pts on you too since we don't own the same captain?

WHAT HAVE I STARTED???

Iused2likebusts

iroced wrote: »

A follow up from post #12 from this thread

Original point was "considering everyone will captain Lukaku this week, am I not better going for a more differential TC in 37?"

FHFC & yourself replied that in theory it doesn't matter. What matters is how much your TC will gain you when you'll play it.

I tried to give an example to ilustrate how lougal "unmathematically correct" idea could work (without implying unrealistic returns), partly based on my season 2 years ago.

Now you tell me it's irrelevant because the GW37 TC don't suit the theory. Are we all gonna (C) the same player in 37 like we'll end up doing this week? I'd be very surprised if so!

Anyway, I'll say again that I agree with the/your theory but I'm willing to defend lougal's original point that deserves more credit, in my opinion. Because 1) it could very well match your theory (Payet or someone else could very well get a better GW37 return than Lukaku in GW33) and 2) even if this decision fails in absolute terms, it could still work out in the end if the differential GW37 TC is succeeds.

Im going to do what Im going to do so I cant worry about what I couldve done as thats based on the outcome not on the decision I had to make at the time. Im going to pick the week when I think TC is best and in the other week when I dont TC Im going to pick the captain that I think is best. It makes no difference to my overall score what happens with other peoples picks. Of course it affects my rank if someone elses pick is successful or not but I cant control that. If im going to TC lukaku this week and captain coutinho in gw 37 thats all I can control. Its my choice to captain coutinho over payet if payet scores highly there is nothing I can do about that. All i can be concerned about is did lukaku in 33 get a higher score than coutinho in 37. If he did I have to be happy as my overall score will be higher than if I reversed the decision. If payet returns a monster score what can I do I wasnt prepared to captain him anyway.
TBH you are approaching it from the statistico maximum pts angle.

iroced

lougal88 wrote: »

WHAT HAVE I STARTED???

Well, an interesting debate (at least to me) since I can't TC Lukaku on 33 (I'm currently WCing) and, after my infamous WC fail last GW, you somehow boosted me up towards a hopeful gigantically successful GW37 TC

:pac:!

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Im going to do what Im going to do so I cant worry about what I couldve done as thats based on the outcome not on the decision I had to make at the time. Im going to pick the week when I think TC is best and in the other week when I dont TC Im going to pick the captain that I think is best. It makes no difference to my overall score what happens with other peoples picks. Of course it affects my rank if someone elses pick is successful or not but I cant control that. If im going to TC lukaku this week and captain coutinho in gw 37 thats all I can control. Its my choice to captain coutinho over payet if payet scores highly there is nothing I can do about that. All i can be concerned about is did lukaku in 33 get a higher score than coutinho in 37. If he did I have to be happy as my overall score will be higher than if I reversed the decision. If payet returns a monster score what can I do I wasnt prepared to captain him anyway.
TBH you are approaching it from the statistico maximum pts angle.

I think (before I go do some work) that you have hit on the difference between you and Iroced here.

You are talking about maximizing your personal score.

He (and I) is talking about improving your overall rank by having a better TC outcome than the "herd".

You're both right!

lougal88

iroced wrote: »

Well, an interesting debate (at least to me) since I can't TC Lukaku on 33 (I'm currently WCing) and, after my infamous WC fail last GW, you somehow boosted me up towards a hopeful gigantically successful GW37 TC :pac:!

I certainly started a debate!

And thank you kind sir for wording my failed argument a lot better than I managed in my mother tongue :P

Basically I think that although FHFC points out the TC is an absolute, and if my TC performs better than yours/others it can be viewed as a win, I still think there is more to be gained by captaining the player when most others will captain him anyway and put the TC on a slight differential.

Of course it can blow up and my punty TC can fail, but that's what this whole season is about. For the same reason I captained Wijnaldum in a home game just before Xmas. Of course I got the wrong game and missed one of his explosions, but no risk no reward.

iroced

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

TBH you are approaching it from the statistico maximum pts angle.

. The statistico website is all about you and your choices. It actually tells you what were your best picks. Maybe you did not consider them so fair enough you missed them out but everytime you were on a 50/50 decisions it tells you if you got it right or wrong.

I don't think that's the approach I expressed neither it is how I play the game. I just said that I don't agree with the "other people choices don't matter". FHFC nailed my point down in his last post.

In fairness I haven't checked the statictico website for ages now. I'll definitely save my season outcome since I do think there are interesting figures to be analysed there. I used to track and build a much simpler file myself and it helped me change some tactics (e.g. GKs, (C) choices like a default one or changing every week, etc...) so now I can relax since a website does the job for me

PARlance

I'm going to partition for Iroced, FHFC and Busts to have to include a tl;dr at the end of their posts. I actually went a bit cross-eyed there

Iused2likebusts

FHFC wrote: »

I think (before I go do some work) that you have hit on the difference between you and Iroced here.

You are talking about maximizing your personal score.

He (and I) is talking about improving your overall rank by having a better TC outcome than the "herd".

You're both right!

I get what your saying but again I cant control what the herd do or the outcome. Like everyone Id love to have a TC that very few have and the herds captain fails. Im going to pick whoever I think is best so there is no point beating myself up about what I could have done. Ill make my decision based on the info I have available like every decision you make in the game some work out some dont. The best thing to do is always pick who you think will score the most points unless you are trying to close off a league near the end.

Iused2likebusts

iroced wrote: »

. The statistico website is all about you and your choices. It actually tells you what were your best picks. Maybe you did not consider them so fair enough you missed them out but everytime you were on a 50/50 decisions it tells you if you got it right or wrong.

I don't think that's the approach I expressed neither it is how I play the game. I just said that I don't agree with the "other people choices don't matter". FHFC nailed my point down in his last post.

In fairness I haven't checked the statictico website for ages now. I'll definitely save my season outcome since I do think there are interesting figures to be analysed there. I used to track and build a much simpler file myself and it helped me change some tactics (e.g. GKs, (C) choices like a default one or changing every week, etc...) so now I can relax since a website does the job for me .

It was just you made reference to my theory being like the statistico approach whereas Id feel the way you are coming at it is a statistico approach. Im not saying you approach the playing of the game in that way. Just I feel your theory is based on the best possible outcome which is beyond our control as we have to make our choices before the event.

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

I get what your saying but again I cant control what the herd do or the outcome. Like everyone Id love to have a TC that very few have and the herds captain fails. Im going to pick whoever I think is best so there is no point beating myself up about what I could have done. Ill make my decision based on the info I have available like every decision you make in the game some work out some dont. The best thing to do is always pick who you think will score the most points unless you are trying to close off a league near the end.

This is a crucial point. I think as I said in the captain thread that by the looks if it the TC will for a lot of serious players be a dogfight between Lukaku in 33, Sanchez in 34 and Payet in 37.

While one or other of those could blank (2 pts) and another hit 2 hat tricks (40 plus points) its probably a fair chance there will not be that big a variance across the three. Maybe 10 or 15 points (e.g. Lukaku 10, Sanchez 25, Payet 15).

So the ultimate gain on a high proportion of serious players from this fabled TC chip could be as little as 10 or 15 points. Or to put it another way just over 0.5% of your average season total of around 2,300 or 2,400pts. Even if you did get a 40pt TC it would still only be likely to be 20 points or so above the average of all TC scores.

Your normal captain totals could be anything from 8% to 12.5% of your season total and are therefore infinitely more important than your TC.

In the TS + CP + BB + TC formula the latter 2 are only maybe 1% of the total.

I'm thinking of writing a proper article on this which I may submit to FFS.

iroced

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Just I feel your theory is based on the best possible outcome which is beyond our control as we have to make our choices before the event.

To be fair my approach of this game would be:
- your "theory" first (maximising my squad pts)
- "mine" second (assessing the relative best timing of my choices compare with most players)
- assess if both concur or not
- make my choice(s) accordingly depending whether I fancy my own opinion or I feel better going with the "crowd".

After all we're having captain polls every week, we know the FFS poll (C) figures, we discuss our transfers, we follow the popular moves (via the price changes thread also), we look at our rivals teams, etc... so, in a way, we do have a little bit of control on everyone else's playing of the game in the sense that we know many of their moves/choices. And we do, more or less, take them into account, even yourself!

FHFC

Had to get this down and out of my head....

Any thoughts/feedback on this as an article summing up the possible overvaluation of the new Chips....

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6agCUvr8Q1GV24yRzEwWVN1UHM

Shedite27

FHFC wrote: »

This is a crucial point. I think as I said in the captain thread that by the looks if it the TC will for a lot of serious players be a dogfight between Lukaku in 33, Sanchez in 34 and Payet in 37.

While one or other of those could blank (2 pts) and another hit 2 hat tricks (40 plus points) its probably a fair chance there will not be that big a variance across the three. Maybe 10 or 15 points (e.g. Lukaku 10, Sanchez 25, Payet 15).

So the ultimate gain on a high proportion of serious players from this fabled TC chip could be as little as 10 or 15 points. Or to put it another way just over 0.5% of your average season total of around 2,300 or 2,400pts. Even if you did get a 40pt TC it would still only be likely to be 20 points or so above the average of all TC scores.

Your normal captain totals could be anything from 8% to 12.5% of your season total and are therefore infinitely more important than your TC.

In the TS + CP + BB + TC formula the latter 2 are only maybe 1% of the total.

I'm thinking of writing a proper article on this which I may submit to FFS.

So you're saying we should all captain Bolassie?

Iused2likebusts

FHFC wrote: »

Had to get this down and out of my head....

Any thoughts/feedback on this as an article summing up the possible overvaluation of the new Chips....

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6agCUvr8Q1GV24yRzEwWVN1UHM

Excellent and spot on

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Excellent and spot on

You should be listed under references in fairness! You started grumbling about this months ago!!

iroced

FHFC wrote: »

Had to get this down and out of my head....

Any thoughts/feedback on this as an article summing up the possible overvaluation of the new Chips....

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6agCUvr8Q1GV24yRzEwWVN1UHM

Great post FHFC. Think you called PS TS from the "Soggy Chips??" section. And didn't you mix up your BB & TC numbers in your final formula?

-

Just to post a general comment about it.

In theory and overall you're right, these new chips only represent a small percentage of our overall score. But this small percentage could be more valuable than you/we'd think.

I'd refer to 2 examples from my previous seasons. I know. Different stories. But the boosts I got were also tiny percentages of my overall score.

2011/12. DGW36. A late WC got me 129 pts (avg 69, highest 186) that shot me up to 20k from 50k. The team I had picked helped me secure a top 20k finish.

2013/14. DGW31. 8 pts hits to stock up on DGW players. 175 (-8) (avg 107, highest 205). I was stagnating between 1k & 2k for 4-5 GWs. That got me to my highest ever OR (767th) and gave me a chance to finish inside top 1k. I eventually failed but that was down to later choices (I mean not because of my DGW team).

So alright, it may only represent 1 or 2% of your overall score, but these 1 or 2% could be crucial in both your overall rank and private leagues finish!

FHFC

iroced wrote: »

Great post FHFC. Think you called PS TS from the "Soggy Chips??" section. And didn't you mix up your BB & TC numbers in your final formula?

-

Just to post a general comment about it.

In theory and overall you're right, these new chips only represent a small percentage of our overall score. But this small percentage could be more valuable than you/we'd think.

I'd refer to 2 examples from my previous seasons. I know. Different stories. But the boosts I got were also tiny percentages of my overall score.
2011/12. DGW36. A late WC got me 129 pts (avg 69, highest 186) that shot me up to 20k from 50k. The team I had picked helped me secure a top 20k finish.

2013/14. DGW31. 8 pts hits to stock up on DGW players. 175 (-8) (avg 107, highest 205). I was stagnating between 1k & 2k for 4-5 GWs. That got me to my highest ever OR (767th) and gave me a chance to finish inside top 1k. I eventually failed but that was down to later choices (I mean not because of my DGW team).

So alright, it may only represent 1 or 2% of your overall score, but these 1 or 2% could be crucial in both your overall rank and private leagues finish!

Thanks for the proof read.

I agree that 1 or 2% or 40ish points could be crucial for mini league finish. But the point is that the amount of effort, planning and debate going into when/how to BB or TC is disproportionate. It has become as if these chips will have a huge effect on how and where we finish whereas they have minimal impact compared to getting your regular captains right. I made 2 or 3 mistakes or 50/50 calls costing me 50 to 60 points this season which is more than I expect to get from BB & TC together.

BTW, your examples prove my case on the chips better still - your good selections in a non chip environment netted you 60ish above the GW average on 2 occasions. Again more than I'd say most will get from their 2 chips we have all been obsessing over.

Iused2likebusts

PARlance wrote: »

I'm going to partition for Iroced, FHFC and Busts to have to include a tl;dr at the end of their posts. I actually went a bit cross-eyed there

wait till gw35 when someone with 10 players suggests a 4 pt hit isnt really a 4 pt hit;)

FHFC

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

wait till gw35 when someone with 10 players suggests a 4 pt hit isnt really a 4 pt hit;)

iroced

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

wait till gw35 when someone with 10 players suggests a 4 pt hit isnt really a 4 pt hit;)

"absolute" vs "relative" could be the summary of all our debates :cool:.

ElTel

FHFC wrote: »

Had to get this down and out of my head....

Any thoughts/feedback on this as an article summing up the possible overvaluation of the new Chips....

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B6agCUvr8Q1GV24yRzEwWVN1UHM

Liked it but after reading it (having followed the discussion here) feel a summary of this debate here would be useful in the article as it focuses the reader to your precise point. Also feel you should stress a bit more the time spent obsessing over them and perhaps how they influence when WCs are played.

Neamhshuntasach

Lets look at potential gains from a well played BB. Assuming you play it in a DGW with a squad packed with Double players you are likely to get 4 players extra with 2 matches each. As these are the players you would otherwise bench it won’t be the big hitters scores we are counting here.

The part above is what i wouldn't agree with. Especially the last part. I wildcarded and had a very healthy team value. I haven't made huge changes as i had a number of players people are bringing in. And in my opinion I have upgraded my "bench players" taking fixtures and form into account as well as just being DGW players.

For example,

Courtois, Hennessy - Out
Mignolet, Robles - In

Azpi, Wollscheid, Williams and Alderwerield - Out
Smalling, Bellerin, Gabriel, Evans - In

Siggy, Eriksen, Westwood - Out
Coutinho, Payet, Barkley - In

Kane, Vardy - Out
Lukaku, Martial - In

They are all transfers I could have made in a single game week and when you take the extra game into account my bench players have been improved. I'm not crazy about Barkley and may change. But he's an upgrade on Westwood for sure. Also add to the fact he has 3 extra games than Westwood. I'm also left with 9 players for GW35 with 2 FT. Assuming no injuries I should field 11 with no hits.

I agree with the essence of what you are saying and there probably is too much stock being put into the doubles and chips. But if you can create a balanced team without disrupting things too much. It can work here better than any other spot in the season.