Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

Metmaster

RobertKK wrote: »

Sky news are saying El Nino gives us colder and drier winters in northwest Europe and we are more likely to have a 2010 type winter, then went straight to the chief scientist of the UK met office, who didn't seem to have a problem with what Sky news had said.

Well they arent far wrong. Sources Ive been seeing are predicting a period around xmas where we will experience blizzard conditions and periods of very heavy snow which, of course, is much like the winter we had in 2010.

Schadenfreudia

Metmaster wrote: »

Well they arent far wrong. Sources Ive been seeing are predicting a period around xmas where we will experience blizzard conditions and periods of very heavy snow which, of course, is much like the winter we had in 2010.

Oh Lord I hope so!

maquiladora

Metmaster wrote: »

Well they arent far wrong. Sources Ive been seeing are predicting a period around xmas where we will experience blizzard conditions and periods of very heavy snow which, of course, is much like the winter we had in 2010.

droidman123

Haha i see the madness has started already! Irelands weather cant be predicted beyond 3-5 days accruatly, yet some people choose to believe a 3 month forecast.... The mind boggles.

Loughc

Ah we are underway earlier than expected this year.

For anyone new to the winter weather threads please see below the following graph which will outline your time here.

Metmaster

droidman123 wrote: »

Haha i see the madness has started already! Irelands weather cant be predicted beyond 3-5 days accruatly, yet some people choose to believe a 3 month forecast.... The mind boggles.

It cant be predicted but it can be estimated obviously it wont be 100% accurate but by studying the behaviour of our current weather and comparing it to past models can lead to moderately accurate long range forecasts (and more often than not, inaccurate)

WheatenBriar

The UK met office record on long range forecasting isn't much better than Piers Corbyn tbh,who incidently is the older brother of the new UK labour leader Jeremy Corbyn

Schadenfreudia

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Piers Corbyn who incidently is the older brother of the new UK labour leader Jeremy Corbyn

Well that is something I didn't know!

...but apart from elder brother of Jeremy...who is Piers, weather-wise?

This guy?

droidman123

Metmaster wrote: »

It cant be predicted but it can be estimated obviously it wont be 100% accurate but by studying the behaviour of our current weather and comparing it to past models can lead to moderately accurate long range forecasts (and more often than not, inaccurate)

Anyone can "estimate" a 3 month forecast,as in come December it will be cold,but my point is some people believe in itemised 3 monthly forecasts,as in there will be heavy snow,it will be extremely stormy,it will be unusually mild etc etc. And I should point out I don't just mean the maddens and the rings and the postmen pats of this world.anyone who thinks they can predict Ireland's weather is a spoofer and a waffler and mother nature makes a fool of them time and time again and will continue to do so.there's no ifs or buts about it,Ireland's weather CANNOT be predicted 3 months ahead,doesn't matter about trends or models,it just can't be done.

Metmaster

droidman123 wrote: »

Anyone can "estimate" a 3 month forecast,as in come December it will be cold,but my point is some people believe in itemised 3 monthly forecasts,as in there will be heavy snow,it will be extremely stormy,it will be unusually mild etc etc. And I should point out I don't just mean the maddens and the rings and the postmen pats of this world.anyone who thinks they can predict Ireland's weather is a spoofer and a waffler and mother nature makes a fool of them time and time again and will continue to do so.there's no ifs or buts about it,Ireland's weather CANNOT be predicted 3 months ahead,doesn't matter about trends or models,it just can't be done.

I agree with you 100% im just saying it has been done before whether or not it was a fluke I dont know. But yeah youre definitely right in saying that we shouldnt take them to heart and belive them.

kenmc

Ah but what are the animals doing? They know it all :rolleyes:

Baggy Trousers

Never mind all that, just tell me when there is snow above 600m and I'll be happy as a pig in shít. Never fails.

mj30

Joe Bastardi tweeted this, usually he is on the ball with his long range forecasting.


UKMET ringing weatherbell on winter pulls 500 mb ridge west.could be big for NW Europe too! shades 09-10 NATL SST

Supercell

mj30 wrote: »

Joe Bastardi tweeted this, usually he is on the ball with his long range forecasting.


UKMET ringing weatherbell on winter pulls 500 mb ridge west.could be big for NW Europe too! shades 09-10 NATL SST

Didn't do us much good, pretty big anomoly then to :-

hatrickpatrick

Is it ramping time already?! Dammit lads my popcorn isn't ready yet. :mad:

Schadenfreudia

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Is it ramping time already?! Dammit lads my popcorn isn't ready yet. :mad:

Well, the trees hereabouts are definitely showing some autumnal tinges so it's time to ramp up snowstorms and Christmas!

NIMAN

Metmaster wrote: »

It cant be predicted but it can be estimated obviously it wont be 100% accurate but by studying the behaviour of our current weather and comparing it to past models can lead to moderately accurate long range forecasts (and more often than not, inaccurate)

So they're guessing basically?:rolleyes:

Metmaster

NIMAN wrote: »

So they're guessing basically?:rolleyes:

Well yeah, but its an educated guess.

NIMAN

"Won't be 100% accurate".

Why % do we think they can get to?

Metmaster

NIMAN wrote: »

"Won't be 100% accurate".

Why % do we think they can get to?

Its hard to say im just saying it wont be dead on correct (more often than not its incorrect). Long range forecasts tend to try to give us an idea of whats ahead but it cannot be for certain.

droidman123

Metmaster wrote: »

Its hard to say im just saying it wont be dead on correct (more often than not its incorrect). Long range forecasts tend to try to give us an idea of whats ahead but it cannot be for certain.

What is the actual point of long range forecasts if it is not actually possible to forecast that far ahead?

Gonzo

I think i would leave the ramping for another month! its still only 3rd week of September and don't want cold conditions just yet, it can wait till November!

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

What is the actual point of long range forecasts if it is not actually possible to forecast that far ahead?

It's possible to forecast anything.

Forecasting is all educated guess work. Even for tomorrows forecast, but we have such instruments and technology that makes us able to get a very accurate forecast for tommorow and the next few days. As the time goes out accuracy falls off.

The actual point of forecasting something 3 months away is that people want to hear it and some will even pay money to do so

droidman123

Carnacalla wrote: »

It's possible to forecast anything.

Forecasting is all educated guess work. Even for tomorrows forecast, but we have such instruments and technology that makes us able to get a very accurate forecast for tommorow and the next few days. As the time goes out accuracy falls off.

The actual point of forecasting something 3 months away is that people want to hear it and some will even pay money to do so

I wasn't talking about 3/5 days ahead,which is sometimes possible,I mean long range forecasting,1-2 months.everyone knows it cant be done so why do some so called experts even try to fool the naive.

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

I wasn't talking about 3/5 days ahead,which is sometimes possible,I mean long range forecasting,1-2 months.everyone knows it cant be done so why do some so called experts even try to fool the naive.

I addressed that point.

You can make an educated guess, but accuracy would be low. The reason people do it is because people will always want these forecasts and some are willing to pay. There's money in it.

droidman123

Carnacalla wrote: »

I addressed that point.

You can make an educated guess, but accuracy would be low. The reason people do it is because people will always want these forecasts and some are willing to pay. There's money in it.

Yeah unfortunately there's always the gullible with deep pockets.accuracy would be zero,unless they got lucky/coincidence.even with models/trends/scientific gadgets, its just impossible

FWVT

droidman123 wrote: »

I wasn't talking about 3/5 days ahead,which is sometimes possible,I mean long range forecasting,1-2 months.everyone knows it cant be done so why do some so called experts even try to fool the naive.

Forecasting 3-5 days and 1-2 months ahead are two totally different practices. For a long-range forecast larger-scale factors of longer timescales come into play, such as El Niño, QBO, MJO, etc. Given that there may be analogue years to compare these factors with, plus factoring in current properties, such as SST, ice and snow cover, it is possible to make an educated estimate of what trends could evolve. Knowing these trends, it is possible to estimate how they may affect our corner of the globe. We're talking probabilities, such as wetter/drier than average, etc.

Stating that we will have a record cold winter with 20-ft snowdrifts for 3 months, however, is pure nonsense, but is big business for some of the gangsters out there.

Metmaster

FWVT wrote: »

Forecasting 3-5 days and 1-2 months ahead are two totally different practices. For a long-range forecast larger-scale factors of longer timescales come into play, such as El Niño, QBO, MJO, etc. Given that there may be analogue years to compare these factors with, plus factoring in current properties, such as SST, ice and snow cover, it is possible to make an educated estimate of what trends could evolve. Knowing these trends, it is possible to estimate how they may affect our corner of the globe. We're talking probabilities, such as wetter/drier than average, etc.

Stating that we will have a record cold winter with 20-ft snowdrifts for 3 months, however, is pure nonsense, but is big business for some of the gangsters out there.

I dont tend to take notice of newspaper forecasts. They are just creating misleading titles such as "coldest winter in 100 years on the way" which has been said every year the last 3 years now and has resulted in nothing more than a few snow showers here and there. Long range forecasting is a gamble and will not work out 99% of the time but you never know they might get lucky.

SeaBreezes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khabibullo_Abdussamatov

This Russian guy indicates that cold is on the way :-) of course, that probably just means rain for Ireland ...
http://russia-ic.com/news/show/13717#.Vf8zQ99Vikr

maquiladora

SeaBreezes wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khabibullo_Abdussamatov

This Russian guy indicates that cold is on the way :-) of course, that probably just means rain for Ireland ...
http://russia-ic.com/news/show/13717#.Vf8zQ99Vikr

That's a 3 year old article that says a new Ice Age will begin in 2014, which turned out to be the warmest year on record globally.

I like Vodka too...