Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

kenmc

Ah but what are the animals doing? They know it all :rolleyes:

Baggy Trousers

Never mind all that, just tell me when there is snow above 600m and I'll be happy as a pig in shít. Never fails.

mj30

Joe Bastardi tweeted this, usually he is on the ball with his long range forecasting.


UKMET ringing weatherbell on winter pulls 500 mb ridge west.could be big for NW Europe too! shades 09-10 NATL SST

Supercell

mj30 wrote: »

Joe Bastardi tweeted this, usually he is on the ball with his long range forecasting.


UKMET ringing weatherbell on winter pulls 500 mb ridge west.could be big for NW Europe too! shades 09-10 NATL SST

Didn't do us much good, pretty big anomoly then to :-

hatrickpatrick

Is it ramping time already?! Dammit lads my popcorn isn't ready yet. :mad:

Schadenfreudia

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Is it ramping time already?! Dammit lads my popcorn isn't ready yet. :mad:

Well, the trees hereabouts are definitely showing some autumnal tinges so it's time to ramp up snowstorms and Christmas!

NIMAN

Metmaster wrote: »

It cant be predicted but it can be estimated obviously it wont be 100% accurate but by studying the behaviour of our current weather and comparing it to past models can lead to moderately accurate long range forecasts (and more often than not, inaccurate)

So they're guessing basically?:rolleyes:

Metmaster

NIMAN wrote: »

So they're guessing basically?:rolleyes:

Well yeah, but its an educated guess.

NIMAN

"Won't be 100% accurate".

Why % do we think they can get to?

Metmaster

NIMAN wrote: »

"Won't be 100% accurate".

Why % do we think they can get to?

Its hard to say im just saying it wont be dead on correct (more often than not its incorrect). Long range forecasts tend to try to give us an idea of whats ahead but it cannot be for certain.

droidman123

Metmaster wrote: »

Its hard to say im just saying it wont be dead on correct (more often than not its incorrect). Long range forecasts tend to try to give us an idea of whats ahead but it cannot be for certain.

What is the actual point of long range forecasts if it is not actually possible to forecast that far ahead?

Gonzo

I think i would leave the ramping for another month! its still only 3rd week of September and don't want cold conditions just yet, it can wait till November!

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

What is the actual point of long range forecasts if it is not actually possible to forecast that far ahead?

It's possible to forecast anything.

Forecasting is all educated guess work. Even for tomorrows forecast, but we have such instruments and technology that makes us able to get a very accurate forecast for tommorow and the next few days. As the time goes out accuracy falls off.

The actual point of forecasting something 3 months away is that people want to hear it and some will even pay money to do so

droidman123

Carnacalla wrote: »

It's possible to forecast anything.

Forecasting is all educated guess work. Even for tomorrows forecast, but we have such instruments and technology that makes us able to get a very accurate forecast for tommorow and the next few days. As the time goes out accuracy falls off.

The actual point of forecasting something 3 months away is that people want to hear it and some will even pay money to do so

I wasn't talking about 3/5 days ahead,which is sometimes possible,I mean long range forecasting,1-2 months.everyone knows it cant be done so why do some so called experts even try to fool the naive.

JCX BXC

droidman123 wrote: »

I wasn't talking about 3/5 days ahead,which is sometimes possible,I mean long range forecasting,1-2 months.everyone knows it cant be done so why do some so called experts even try to fool the naive.

I addressed that point.

You can make an educated guess, but accuracy would be low. The reason people do it is because people will always want these forecasts and some are willing to pay. There's money in it.

droidman123

Carnacalla wrote: »

I addressed that point.

You can make an educated guess, but accuracy would be low. The reason people do it is because people will always want these forecasts and some are willing to pay. There's money in it.

Yeah unfortunately there's always the gullible with deep pockets.accuracy would be zero,unless they got lucky/coincidence.even with models/trends/scientific gadgets, its just impossible

FWVT

droidman123 wrote: »

I wasn't talking about 3/5 days ahead,which is sometimes possible,I mean long range forecasting,1-2 months.everyone knows it cant be done so why do some so called experts even try to fool the naive.

Forecasting 3-5 days and 1-2 months ahead are two totally different practices. For a long-range forecast larger-scale factors of longer timescales come into play, such as El Niño, QBO, MJO, etc. Given that there may be analogue years to compare these factors with, plus factoring in current properties, such as SST, ice and snow cover, it is possible to make an educated estimate of what trends could evolve. Knowing these trends, it is possible to estimate how they may affect our corner of the globe. We're talking probabilities, such as wetter/drier than average, etc.

Stating that we will have a record cold winter with 20-ft snowdrifts for 3 months, however, is pure nonsense, but is big business for some of the gangsters out there.

Metmaster

FWVT wrote: »

Forecasting 3-5 days and 1-2 months ahead are two totally different practices. For a long-range forecast larger-scale factors of longer timescales come into play, such as El Niño, QBO, MJO, etc. Given that there may be analogue years to compare these factors with, plus factoring in current properties, such as SST, ice and snow cover, it is possible to make an educated estimate of what trends could evolve. Knowing these trends, it is possible to estimate how they may affect our corner of the globe. We're talking probabilities, such as wetter/drier than average, etc.

Stating that we will have a record cold winter with 20-ft snowdrifts for 3 months, however, is pure nonsense, but is big business for some of the gangsters out there.

I dont tend to take notice of newspaper forecasts. They are just creating misleading titles such as "coldest winter in 100 years on the way" which has been said every year the last 3 years now and has resulted in nothing more than a few snow showers here and there. Long range forecasting is a gamble and will not work out 99% of the time but you never know they might get lucky.

SeaBreezes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khabibullo_Abdussamatov

This Russian guy indicates that cold is on the way :-) of course, that probably just means rain for Ireland ...
http://russia-ic.com/news/show/13717#.Vf8zQ99Vikr

maquiladora

SeaBreezes wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khabibullo_Abdussamatov

This Russian guy indicates that cold is on the way :-) of course, that probably just means rain for Ireland ...
http://russia-ic.com/news/show/13717#.Vf8zQ99Vikr

That's a 3 year old article that says a new Ice Age will begin in 2014, which turned out to be the warmest year on record globally.

I like Vodka too...

yellowlabrador

Simon Keeling's Winter forecast

Schadenfreudia

yellowlabrador wrote: »

Simon Keeling's Winter forecast

So the NW or returning NW trend to continue all the way to the start of March!

Could be as much moaning here next winter as there was during the recent summer!

yellowlabrador

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

So the NW or returning NW trend to continue all the way to the start of March!

Could be as much moaning here next winter as there was during the recent summer!

we will have a dustbin and tide watch instead

SeaBreezes

Joe Bastardi gives his tuppence worth..

http://notrickszone.com/2015/09/21/joe-bastardi-sees-possible-nasty-winter-shaping-up-in-europe-as-north-atlantic-cold-expands/#.dpuf

Xenji

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

So the NW or returning NW trend to continue all the way to the start of March!

Could be as much moaning here next winter as there was during the recent summer!

Why would we be moaning, winters in the West provide the most entertaining weather in the country, we would be moaning if it was a dry and mild winter

snowstreams

Well if its a repeat of last years westerly snows I wont be complaining. I got a total of 6 inches of (wettish) snow last year in 2 events which is more than we got here in Athenry in 2010 though it was of course far warmer last year.

Stealthfins

I'd much prefer an easterly influence or slack winds,combined with regular westerly Atlantic swells.

I got on the surf scene 4 years ago,the conditions were way more favorable.

Plenty of offshore breezes and ground swells,frosty mornings and crisp evening' s.

mg1982

We need another snowmageddon after that crap summer. Something similiar to 2011 would be nice. Wishful thinking i know.

Gonzo

definitely would prefer a winter that will give us in the snow starved east something to look forward to this winter. I doubt we'd see a 2009/2010 again for many more years to come but a few days of regular snow trains in off the Irish sea would do nicely.

We did get an inch or so of slushy snow from the atlantic last year but it's not really the same and doesn't really last more than a few hours on the ground.

JCX BXC

Gonzo wrote: »

definitely would prefer a winter that will give us in the snow starved east something to look forward to this winter. I doubt we'd see a 2009/2010 again for many more years to come but a few days of regular snow trains in off the Irish sea would do nicely.

We did get an inch or so of slushy snow from the atlantic last year but it's not really the same and doesn't really last more than a few hours on the ground.

Aw my condolences. Meanwhile in west Clare we got no lying snow last year and no snow during daylight hours. Most possible snow events were rain. Snow starved east? Snow starved Ireland (excluding the northwest)

esposito

mg1982 wrote: »

We need another snowmageddon after that crap summer. Something similiar to 2011 would be nice. Wishful thinking i know.

2011 was awful. I think you mean 2010

mg1982

esposito wrote: »

2011 was awful. I think you mean 2010

Sorry ya meant 2010. It was a real winter wonderland in the northwest that year. Only problem was the pipes froze so there was no running water in the house. :eek:

pauldry

I think October will buck the trend of cold months.

I forsee a warmer than normal month.

Well see though.

Baggy Trousers

The blackberry crop is very late this year. They are very slow to ripen.

This can only mean a foot of snow in my garden on Christmas Day

Schadenfreudia

Xenji wrote: »

Why would we be moaning, winters in the West provide the most entertaining weather in the country, we would be moaning if it was a dry and mild winter

A quick look back to last year will confirm there was very much moaning about the lack of snow!

Schadenfreudia

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

The blackberry crop is very late this year. They are very slow to ripen.

This can only mean a foot of snow in my garden on Christmas Day

Well, around here there is a bumper crop since late August...so that must mean shirt sleeves on Christmas Day

Xenji

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

A quick look back to last year will confirm there was very much moaning about the lack of snow!

We got plenty in Castlebar the last 3 years running, well by Irish snowfall levels.

Nabber

I like watching the ICE grow on the charts.
Same day across 4 years....
2015


2014


2013


2012

sryanbruen

I don't care about the Winter as long as it's gonna be a long-cold-snowy one (not like Winter 2010-11 though). I want it like Winter 2009-10. All I ask for!

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

I don't care about the Winter as long as it's gonna be a long-cold-snowy one (not like Winter 2010-11 though). I want it like Winter 2009-10. All I ask for!

I'd settle for all three months to be like December 2010

Gonzo

all I care for is the Easterly during late November-mid February, everything else is just a waste of time resulting in disappointment.

sryanbruen

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

I'd settle for all three months to be like December 2010

I said the Winter of 2009 / 10 because of the mild February of the next Winter and the not so snow-full January

Gonzo

every winter month since December 2010 has been rubbish, at least in my area!

since the great winter of 2010 all we've had here is a few isolated glimses of snow either too late in the year around March: snow that falls during the night and melts by noon or atlantic based crap that results in a few snow flurries on the back of the car or an inch of slushy snow that melts within an hour!

altho last year we did have about a 30 minute spell of atlantic sourced dinner plate sized flakes which were cool to see but it was all over and melted within an hour. This winter im looking for the real deal.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

every winter month since December 2010 has been rubbish, at least in my area!

since the great winter of 2010 all we've had here is a few isolated glimses of snow either too late in the year around March: snow that falls during the night and melts by noon or atlantic based crap that results in a few snow flurries on the back of the car or an inch of slushy snow that melts within an hour!

altho last year we did have about a 30 minute spell of dinner sized plate flakes which were cool to see but it was all over and melted within an hour. This winter im looking for the real deal.

December 2011, February 2013, March 2013 and February 2014 are all the only months that I have recorded even one snowflake since December 2010.

mg1982

We had a couple of days last winter that we woke up to a blanket of snow. Unfortunatley it had melted by evening time.

sryanbruen

mg1982 wrote: »

We had a couple of days last winter that we woke up to a blanket of snow. Unfortunatley it had melted by evening time.

Even on the 13th of January - the day I was told where most stations recorded some snow, I didn't record a snowflake

Metmaster

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Could the Atlantic have less influence over our weather this winter because of the much cooler waters there? Letting that easterly beast in?

Our last few winters have been influenced by the atlantic, hence the mild weather especially in the south and east. The easterly influence was seen in our colder winters of 09 and 10 which usually tends to have the oppostie effect leading to much of the cold weather hitting the eastern part of the country and much of the south. Our winters will always be cold up north no matter where the air is blowing from.

Tabnabs

Fairbanks (right in the centre of Alaska) has had their heaviest September snow in 23 years.



http://twitter.com/deephil11/status/647572672436502529/photo/1

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/alaska-cold-first-fairbanks-snow-sep2015

Tindie

I heard Moscow had there frist snow of winter snow !


I need to move there ,

I looking forward to next week!
Cold and frostily early morning
I leave the house 6:30am!


Finally get a chance to try out my new gloves , which I have in my back for 5/6 weeks.

icesnowfrost

Hi guys....is it that time of year again
Things are looking interesting.