Price Changes 2015/2016

ElTel

iroced wrote: »

It is a certainty now. If it wasn't the case we'd have seen a hell of a lot more price rises (and drops) this week!


Yes. This only started last year.

How did the prediction sites get on last year?
Did they get better as season went on as you would expect?

CSF

Pedro a midfielder at 9.5

iroced

ElTel wrote: »

How did the prediction sites get on last year?
Did they get better as season went on as you would expect?

Yes they did but they always struggled during big WC weeks, which may not be the cas ethis year in the second part of the season with the removal of the January WC. FPLS dealt with it better. They were asking users to give their FPL ID when WC had been used so that they could factor it in.

iroced

CSF wrote: »

Pedro a midfielder at 9.5

If he explodes like we all hope he can, we won't have to worry too much about Hazard price tag :cool:.

Though I feel he'd have been a better option at United.

Iused2likebusts

CSF wrote: »

Pedro a midfielder at 9.5

Interesting .5 dearer than I expected now to work out if he is worth it.

dahat

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Interesting .5 dearer than I expected now to work out if he is worth it.

What he might do is take a few Hazard owners away while under wildcard. Fully expect Hazard % to drop a bit now.

menoscemo

FrClintPower wrote: »

Me too, although I wish I'd thought of FHFC's (I think) strategy, wait until Yaya gains .2, buy Silva at 10.1 and then at least Silva's resale value would be 10.1 rather than 10. Would be very handy for those of us who see Silva -> Hazard as a potential move if he becomes a necessity.

Agreed but I chickened out. I feared Silva rising and yaya not getting a second rise before the deadline

FrClintPower

FHFC wrote: »

It was too risky i felt in the end. There's a small but significant chance Yaya wouldn't rise again on Friday night then you'd have lost 0.1

Currently have Kolarov and Silva who will both be staying.

Yeah, I have them both too, and might have played it safe as well. But still annoyed with myself for not even thinking it through. One to bear in mind for the early panicky wildcard in 2016/2017!

DarraghF197

Ritchie looks really close to dropping again. He would be such a bargain at 5.8M. I hope he goes down before Saturday morning so I can place him in my wild card team!

CSF

DarraghF197 wrote: »

Ritchie looks really close to dropping again. He would be such a bargain at 5.8M. I hope he goes down before Saturday morning so I can place him in my wild card team!

To put it into better perspective, that's more expensive than Mahrez until they eventually intersect. 5.8 for a player at a club who haven't managed a goal in their first 2 games and look destined for relegation isn't a bargain for me. It's grand enough but we are talking about a guy here who hasn't a Premier League goal or assist to his name (unless someone corrects me that he did manage one in his brief previous spell).

What are we expecting from Ritchie? More than Sigurdsson tallied last season? That was a bargain at the equivalent starting price.

PARlance

CSF wrote: »

To put it into better perspective, that's more expensive than Mahrez until they eventually intersect. 5.8 for a player at a club who haven't managed a goal in their first 2 games and look destined for relegation isn't a bargain for me. It's grand enough but we are talking about a guy here who hasn't a Premier League goal or assist to his name (unless someone corrects me that he did manage one in his brief previous spell).

What are we expecting from Ritchie? More than Sigurdsson tallied last season? That was a bargain at the equivalent starting price.

Definitely a party that you want to arrive a little late to.

CSF

PARlance wrote: »

Definitely a party that you want to arrive a little late to.

Yeah, pretty much.

DarraghF197

CSF wrote: »

To put it into better perspective, that's more expensive than Mahrez until they eventually intersect. 5.8 for a player at a club who haven't managed a goal in their first 2 games and look destined for relegation isn't a bargain for me. It's grand enough but we are talking about a guy here who hasn't a Premier League goal or assist to his name (unless someone corrects me that he did manage one in his brief previous spell).

What are we expecting from Ritchie? More than Sigurdsson tallied last season? That was a bargain at the equivalent starting price.

I will also be having Mahrez in my team. Looking at Bournmouths next few fixtures, I would want a player from them for that duration. A goal is just hitting a shot a little sweeter than that person who got 2 points the same week. I've watched him play against Liverpool and he was't afraid of taking a shot, and, more importantly, he was very very close to scoring. He hit the post once I think as well, it's fine lines between 5 points and nothing. What matters is that I see potential in him, and he fits into my squad nicely for that 5.5-6 range

CSF

DarraghF197 wrote: »

I will also be having Mahrez in my team. Looking at Bournmouths next few fixtures, I would want a player from them for that duration. A goal is just hitting a shot a little sweeter than that person who got 2 points the same week. I've watched him play against Liverpool and he was't afraid of taking a shot, and, more importantly, he was very very close to scoring. He hit the post once I think as well, it's fine lines between 5 points and nothing. What matters is that I see potential in him, and he fits into my squad nicely for that 5.5-6 range

I don't think he's especially overpriced either. 5.5 would have been the right price for him and he's heading towards that now. FPL tend to get caught up in the hype.

Trippier was the same. People got caught up in his Championship form and maybe at 4.5 he would have been a bargain but then FPL went and priced him at 5.0 and people seemed to ignore that FPL had priced him as 5.0 for a Burnley defender and talked about him as a bargain anyway. The same is happening here.

kippy

ElTel wrote: »

Still trying to get a "feel" for price changes.
Example Rooney
Total no. in game 3.25M
Owned by 34.8% which is 1.1M approx.
Transfers out this gameweek 221007.
So 221007/(1.1M + 221007) = 0.167
16% of owners have transferred him this week and his price remains unchanged!!!!
How many weeks does it usually take for the stat/algoritihm guys to start reliably predicting the price changes.
Just started referring to these prediction sites this year and feel they will help my game.

The best thing to improve your game is to try get in players just before their form improves and ship them out before the form does to crap. The price rises will take care of themselves.

FHFC

kippy wrote: »

The best thing to improve your game is to try get in players just before their form improves and ship them out before the form does to crap. The price rises will take care of themselves.

Well, while the principle of this is correct of course, they kinda wont if you dont have a handle on if the guy youre buying is about to rise before you do it, or the guy you have is set to drop the day before you sell.....

CSF

kippy wrote: »

The best thing to improve your game is to try get in players just before their form improves and ship them out before the form does to crap. The price rises will take care of themselves.

This isn't really true. Picking players when they're on form is a given. Value gives people the added edge.

kippy

FHFC wrote: »

Well, while the principle of this is correct of course, they kinda wont if you dont have a handle on if the guy youre buying is about to rise before you do it, or the guy you have is set to drop the day before you sell.....

People get caught up in prices changes. You don't won the game or your mini leagues by having a valuable team. Just ask any of the thousands of people whose only aim is to have valuable teams.

CSF

kippy wrote: »

People get caught up in prices changes. You don't won the game or your mini leagues by having a valuable team. Just ask any of the thousands of people whose only aim is to have valuable teams.

Nothing is a given but you have a decided advantage if you have more money to choose your team with.

km79

CSF wrote: »

I don't think he's especially overpriced either. 5.5 would have been the right price for him and he's heading towards that now. FPL tend to get caught up in the hype.

Trippier was the same. People got caught up in his Championship form and maybe at 4.5 he would have been a bargain but then FPL went and priced him at 5.0 and people seemed to ignore that FPL had priced him as 5.0 for a Burnley defender and talked about him as a bargain anyway. The same is happening here.

I owned trippier and lost value on him
I own ritchie

CSF

km79 wrote: »

I owned trippier and lost value on him
I own ritchie

A players price doesn't dictate how they'll do at all thankfully, but relative to who they are, what they've done, and who they were playing for, they're both overpriced.

iroced

kippy wrote: »

People get caught up in prices changes. You don't won the game or your mini leagues by having a valuable team. Just ask any of the thousands of people whose only aim is to have valuable teams.

It doesn't have to be one OR the other (i.e. the points OR the team value). Most consistently good players manage a mixture of both. Even the ones who claim here that their team value is crap, in reality it's not that crap if you factor in the whole game.

Also trying to outsmart players form can work out for a couple of elite players (e.g. Sanchez, Terry, Silva last year) but if you apply this transfer strategy as a rule, you're going ta face many disappointments.

Western Pomise

On WC after a poor start...have a conundrum going into possible price rises tonight.Looks like Silva and Yaya may both go up tonight,

Here's my current lineup (was picked to try and gain rises) .....have put gains in brackets since last wkd.

Mc Carthy My hill

Kolorov (.1) Smalling (.1) Darmian (.1) Richards(.1) Shaw (.1)
Yaya Toure (.1) Mahrez (.2) Barkley (.1) Payet (.1) Albrighton (.1)
Aguero (.1) Gomis (.1) Kone (.1)

Thinking of selling one of Albrighton or Barkley tonight for Silva in hope Silva gains .1 overnight and buys me time to decide who to keep out of Silva or YaYa Toure in final team.
Is that a daft move?.....really appreciate any feedback.
Have money in the bank for upgrade.

Benimar

Its the right move unless you plan to keep both Barkley and Albrighton.

AdpRo

You already have 3 city players so can't get Silva in without dumping one of them.

kippy

iroced wrote: »

It doesn't have to be one OR the other (i.e. the points OR the team value). Most consistently good players manage a mixture of both. Even the ones who claim here that their team value is crap, in reality it's not that crap if you factor in the whole game.

Also trying to outsmart players form can work out for a couple of elite players (e.g. Sanchez, Terry, Silva last year) but if you apply this transfer strategy as a rule, you're going ta face many disappointments.

I'm playing this game (some great years, some not so great) since it's inception without worrying too much about price rises or falls.
I don't get the over obsession with the price changes tbh, but I can understand why some see it as an additional key feature of the game.

Western Pomise

AdpRo wrote: »

You already have 3 city players so can't get Silva in without dumping one of them.

Didn't spot that,rookie error!!!.....feck it,as intended holding onto Kun and Kolorov and one of Silva or Yaya.


Wonder whose more likely to rise another time before deadline on Sat am.....Aguero or Kolorov.?????

Would dump the other lad tonight and could always bring him back in.

Any thoughts much appreciated.

Iused2likebusts

swiper doesnt really bother with price rises and it doesnt seem to affect him

iroced

Western Pomise wrote: »

Didn't spot that,rookie error!!!.....feck it,as intended holding onto Kun and Kolorov and one of Silva or Yaya.


Wonder whose more likely to rise another time before deadline on Sat am.....Aguero or Kolorov.?????

Would dump the other lad tonight and could always bring him back in.

Any thoughts much appreciated.

If I were you I'd decide which of Yaya or Silva I want and go for him and forget about the £0.1m.

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

swiper doesnt really bother with price rises and it doesnt seem to affect him

Depends what means "doesn't bother" though. FWIR his team value was around £104m at the end of last year, so not that much below the ones who do care. Since the removal of WC in the price changes, it's not as important as it used to be to build a huge team value. It's worth noting that last year was a year with several sub £6.0m strikers over-performing, which is a bit unusual.

kippy wrote: »

I'm playing this game (some great years, some not so great) since it's inception without worrying too much about price rises or falls.
I don't get the over obsession with the price changes tbh, but I can understand why some see it as an additional key feature of the game.

Fair enough if it works out well for you .

About the price changes, there's no obsession, just a careful following. As I said in my previous post, it's not black or white. For some players I'd be over-cautious about potential £0.1m loss, for others I would not care. For example, as much as I'm happy that Coates held on, I'd not be too bothered if he finally drops. There should be other options at £4.4m anyway not to "waste" my budget there. I'm a lot more annoyed not to have spotted Fab £0.1m loss because it compromises my plans for getting Sanchez in. In my oipinion, there's a right balance to find.

Chesty08

Western Pomise wrote: »

Didn't spot that,rookie error!!!.....feck it,as intended holding onto Kun and Kolorov and one of Silva or Yaya.


Wonder whose more likely to rise another time before deadline on Sat am.....Aguero or Kolorov.?????

Would dump the other lad tonight and could always bring him back in.

Any thoughts much appreciated.

I was in the same conundrum earlier in the week, had a .1 price rise on Yaya & it looked like Silva would rise. I will be putting Silva in the team for start of GW3 so made the transfer.

What I should of done and what I would advise you to do is leave it, let them both rise. Therefore you will have gained a .1 resale on Yaya.

Now I know you will lose this as soon as you sign Silva,10.1, from your money in the bank.

But going forward when you look to sell Silva it will be for 10.1 & not 10.. if you transfer tonight /tomorrow (before rise)

You might get lucky and only Yaya will rise (which I'm dreading)