Price Changes 2015/2016

Ziegler1988

8-10 wrote: »

Coates survives! What a hero

His ownership is something like 17k, so it only takes 1.7k to transfer out for a drop. However, if a lot of those are on a wild card he may just survive

menoscemo

Well at least I have now got a double rise from Mahrez. Hopefully a few more before Saturday....

CSF

menoscemo wrote: »

Well at least I have now got a double rise from Mahrez. Hopefully a few more before Saturday....

Will you keep him though?

menoscemo

CSF wrote: »

Will you keep him though?

Yeah I probably will. He seems essential at his price for now as a 4th/5th midfielder.

dahat

menoscemo wrote: »

Yeah I probably will. He seems essential at his price for now as a 4th/5th midfielder.

I will have to sell him and go for Albrighton instead, not the worst scenario but still worries me a little.

AdpRo

Deleted User wrote: »

Yaya 84.7
Silva 88.2

Doesn't look like we will get the 2nd rise from YaYa before Silva rises unfortunately.

jimmii

Yaya is trying to close the gap a little now (85.1) on Silva (88.4).

PARlance

Nono, having given up on Yaya getting to 0.2 before Silva got his first, I decided that I would just stick it out with Yaya and all my planning has had him in my team....
If the opportunity arises where I can cash in on him, I would be tempted to do so and swap over to Silva....

Amazing what 0.1 can do to my plans
Daftness

menoscemo

I got Yaya in the WC and got a 0.1 rise but swapped him for Silva earlier in the week for fear Silva would rise before Yaya's 2nd. I really hope silva rises before Yaya or at the very least at the same time!

8-10

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

His ownership is something like 17k, so it only takes 1.7k to transfer out for a drop. However, if a lot of those are on a wild card he may just survive

Doubt it, majority of transfers will be tomorrow night so I'd expect him to drop.

FrClintPower

menoscemo wrote: »

I got Yaya in the WC and got a 0.1 rise but swapped him for Silva earlier in the week for fear Silva would rise before Yaya's 2nd. I really hope silva rises before Yaya or at the very least at the same time!

Me too, although I wish I'd thought of FHFC's (I think) strategy, wait until Yaya gains .2, buy Silva at 10.1 and then at least Silva's resale value would be 10.1 rather than 10. Would be very handy for those of us who see Silva -> Hazard as a potential move if he becomes a necessity.

8-10

iroced wrote: »

Think you missed mine too .


I was responding to this simple. And I rest my case: no price changes = more simple.

I meant that it's a simple action for them to take. I want the game harder, not easier. And I want there to be less of a difference between casuals and less-casuals. And I still want price changes for more popular players.

(I'm not going to get any of this mind!)

8-10

iroced wrote: »

Isn't it a bit utopian? I mean what if you're priced out because you didn't expect a few critical rises/drops to allow your "genuine" transfer? You'd make a "genuine-default" transfer? Or no transfer? And when does your "genuine" transfer become completely default? Is this really the game you want?

This is the game. It's the 3rd party sites that came in and changed it by trying to predict the algorithm. So that's the issue I'd be trying to stop. Price rises were already happening before the likes of FISO etc came along. You talk about it as if it's part of FPL, it's not, if it was then the % to a rise/drop would be on the FPL site. I just don't think they're doing enough to stop these 3rd parties doing the predicting

Neamhshuntasach

I reckon Silve and Yaya will both go up tomorrow. Yaya will probably end up with the higher number of transfers as people tempted by having more money available go for him. Pity Yaya isn't close the 100% now.

Ziegler1988

8-10 wrote: »

Doubt it, majority of transfers will be tomorrow night so I'd expect him to drop.

I expect him too as well, although I doubt too many people will be using FT or -4s on him

8-10

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

I expect him too as well, although I doubt too many people will be using FT or -4s on him

They're welcome to, won't matter once he pops up with this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EEiro08kxM

He's due :P

Colking

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

I reckon Silve and Yaya will both go up tomorrow. Yaya will probably end up with the higher number of transfers as people tempted by having more money available go for him. Pity Yaya isn't close the 100% now.

Don't you worry about YaYa

iroced

8-10 wrote: »

This is the game. It's the 3rd party sites that came in and changed it by trying to predict the algorithm. So that's the issue I'd be trying to stop. Price rises were already happening before the likes of FISO etc came along. You talk about it as if it's part of FPL, it's not, if it was then the % to a rise/drop would be on the FPL site. I just don't think they're doing enough to stop these 3rd parties doing the predicting

Well I haven't experienced the game before FISO time so I can't compare. But I'm not sure I get what you mean by "making it harder". What kind of data should they hide?

I mean we all have access to NTI & NTO for each round and for the season. That's what FISO were using. Total players, ownership is also available. And FISO were using these too. For all the guesstimating (weighting factors for second and treble price changes, recent no WC included in calculations) they got it by the try and error method, analysing what was needed for and how players rose and dropped. Same goes for protection after flag removal. Same goes for NTO adjustment when red flagged, etc...

So, do you mean the NTI/O in/out, total players & ownership figures were not available in the early years of the game?

FHFC

FrClintPower wrote: »

Me too, although I wish I'd thought of FHFC's (I think) strategy, wait until Yaya gains .2, buy Silva at 10.1 and then at least Silva's resale value would be 10.1 rather than 10. Would be very handy for those of us who see Silva -> Hazard as a potential move if he becomes a necessity.

It was too risky i felt in the end. There's a small but significant chance Yaya wouldn't rise again on Friday night then you'd have lost 0.1

Currently have Kolarov and Silva who will both be staying.

ElTel

Still trying to get a "feel" for price changes.
Example Rooney
Total no. in game 3.25M
Owned by 34.8% which is 1.1M approx.
Transfers out this gameweek 221007.
So 221007/(1.1M + 221007) = 0.167
16% of owners have transferred him this week and his price remains unchanged!!!!
How many weeks does it usually take for the stat/algoritihm guys to start reliably predicting the price changes.
Just started referring to these prediction sites this year and feel they will help my game.

iroced

ElTel wrote: »

Still trying to get a "feel" for price changes.
Example Rooney
Total no. in game 3.25M
Owned by 34.8% which is 1.1M approx.
Transfers out this gameweek 221007.
So 221007/(1.1M + 221007) = 0.167
16% of owners have transferred him this week and his price remains unchanged!!!!
How many weeks does it usually take for the stat/algoritihm guys to start reliably predicting the price changes.
Just started referring to these prediction sites this year and feel they will help my game.

The problem is Rooney was probably taken out by 80% WCers, i.e. 80% of his transfers out would not count.

ElTel

iroced wrote: »

The problem is Rooney was probably taken out by 80% WCers, i.e. 80% of his transfers out would not count.

I get you....I think
If say 300k wildcards used this week 100k will include Rooney. (Approx using the 34.4%)
So of the 221k transfers this week 100k don't count in the price change calculation?

Benimar

ElTel wrote: »

I get you....I think
If say 300k wildcards used this week 100k will include Rooney. (Approx using the 34.4%)
So of the 221k transfers this week 100k don't count in the price change calculation?

You have the idea ok, but I'd say the WC transfers are more than 100k out of 221k. For anyone not WCing it may be worth keeping Rooney for the Newcastle game, but anyone on a WC will have to look beyond that one fixture so are more likely to drop him.

I'd say iroced might not be too far off with his 80% estimate.

ElTel

Benimar wrote: »

You have the idea ok, but I'd say the WC transfers are more than 100k out of 221k. For anyone not WCing it may be worth keeping Rooney for the Newcastle game, but anyone on a WC will have to look beyond that one fixture so are more likely to drop him.

I'd say iroced might not be too far off with his 80% estimate.

Will start keeping a running total of Wildcards used.

ElTel

If Rooney is in 33% of teams it is unlikely he is involved in 80% of wildcards or am I missing something

Western Pomise

So do people reckon it looks like wild cards are not affecting price changes this year?

Ziegler1988

ElTel wrote: »

If Rooney is in 33% of teams it is unlikely he is involved in 80% of wildcards or am I missing something

I think people are saying that 80% of the people that have transferred out Rooney thus far are on wild cards. I'm sure he'll drop tomorrow night, I just hope he won't go 0.2 before Sunday

ElTel

Western Pomise wrote: »

So do people reckon it looks like wild cards are not affecting price changes this year?

Yes. Was it different in previous years?

iroced

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

I think people are saying that 80% of the people that have transferred out Rooney thus far are on wild cards.

Exactly what I meant :cool:.

The irony is I'm not on WC and I transferred him out :pac:.

iroced

Western Pomise wrote: »

So do people reckon it looks like wild cards are not affecting price changes this year?

It is a certainty now. If it wasn't the case we'd have seen a hell of a lot more price rises (and drops) this week!

ElTel wrote: »

Yes. Was it different in previous years?

Yes. This only started last year.