UK Election 2015

Clearlier

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32568840

Just to be clear..., that was Clegg not making a referendum on membership of the EU a 'red line' issue for his party. FWIW - I think that the Tories will be the biggest party with the most number of seats - probably not enough for a majority followed by Labour then UKIP will have a higher % but not as many seats as the Lib Dems. It's obviously the margins that make this election interesting.

My biggest fear is that the DUP might have be part of a government. Unlike the SNP and to a lesser extent Plaid Cymru there's no push from them for independence and they're not left leaning like the aforementioned. Add in that they're not much in the news over here and if their numbers could tip the Conservatives over the edge they could get in.

jank

Interesting Election. Minority government but will Labour jump into bed with the SNP? If so, that will the death knell of Labour for a generation. My prediction will be Tories, Lib Dems and the DUP just getting over the line. I wonder will there be a shy Tory vote as people think of their pockets in the ballot box.

ancapailldorcha

I've just voted Labour and am crossing my fingers for a Labour/SNP coalition.

Clearlier wrote: »

Just to be clear..., that was Clegg not making a referendum on membership of the EU a 'red line' issue for his party. FWIW - I think that the Tories will be the biggest party with the most number of seats - probably not enough for a majority followed by Labour then UKIP will have a higher % but not as many seats as the Lib Dems. It's obviously the margins that make this election interesting.

Cleggy's far from stubborn as history shows. I think an EU referendum would be a huge waste of time and money.

Clearlier wrote: »

My biggest fear is that the DUP might have be part of a government. Unlike the SNP and to a lesser extent Plaid Cymru there's no push from them for independence and they're not left leaning like the aforementioned. Add in that they're not much in the news over here and if their numbers could tip the Conservatives over the edge they could get in.

My biggest fear is the DUP having any sort of say in policies affecting the mainland UK. UKIP are just a storm in a teacup and are quite unlikely to enjoy any sort of kingmaking role despite the BBC promotions. The Greens will get to keep Caroline Lucas in Brighton Kemptown but I don't see them doing any better than UKIP.

Jon Stark

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've just voted Labour and am crossing my fingers for a Labour/SNP coalition.

I've followed the lead up to this election with interest and saw a few of the live debates. What do you think about Miliband's insistence that he won't form a coalition with the SNP?

I can respect what he was trying to do, i.e. portray himself as a strong leader and Labour as a strong party that doesn't need a coalition. I also think Miliband has done well for the most part in this election campaign.

However I really think his attitude towards the SNP will, at the very least, put a dent in the image he tried to portray of himself. I'm sure there is a way for Labour to find common ground with the SNP, but Miliband will have to do some serious spin to lessen his previous comments.

Lemming

Not voted yet, but I've got two sets of votes to cast; one for the GE and another for Rotherham council.

To say the list of available candidates for both is depressing is stating the obvious;

General Election

Of the seven, four I can discount right away as being either right-wing or left-wing f*ckwits and/or racists/bigots (UKIP, BNP, English Democrats, and Trade Unionists & Socialists Against Cuts), leaving me with Labour, the Tories, and the LibDems. I don't trust Ed to jump into bed with the SNP which would be a disaster for the country at large, so that leaves the Tories & LibDems, and the LibDems have not gotten back to me regards a complaint made against one of their candidates for Yorkshire on the amount of hate-speech she spews forth so no vote for them unless they come back to me before I cast my vote this evening.

That leaves the Tories. How has it al come to this?

Rotherham council (Boston Castle ward)

The labour incubments are useless clearly given their appalling record. The "new" labour team put forth are a father & daughter (so nepotism ahoy) team that come from the same community as disgraced former council members that hvae been forced to stand down and are engaged in denial/talking down of the decades long child sex ring scandal. So no thanks Labour.

That leaves Tories, Socialists, and Racists. So Tory again ... it's a damning indictment when I can only find a single candidate that I am prepared to put a vote against whilst actively NOT wanting to give any other candidates a vote.

Edit: oh, and the LibDem candidate for Rotherham apparently lives & stands in Halifax ... finger on the pulse & all that!.

afatbollix

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Sure **** it lads lets go back to having the Queen ruling over us and thats it. This voting is too much hard work.


:rolleyes:

BoJack Horseman

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

am crossing my fingers for a Labour/SNP coalition.

Why, if you dont mind me asking?

What would be better for the UK for having the SNP in charge?

who the fug

afatbollix wrote: »

Sure **** it lads lets go back to having the Queen ruling over us and thats it. This voting is too much hard work.
/>

What the **** has voting or not voting in a UK election got to do with the Queen being in charge of Ireland Am going to hold my nose and vote Liberal , whilst praying for a miracle so we get rid of the local Labour guy

afatbollix

He voted in the UK elections.

I didnt say anything about Ireland.

BoJack Horseman

who the fug wrote: »

What the **** has voting or not voting in a UK election got to do with the Queen being in charge of Ireland

Don't think he was referring to Ireland.

Am going to hold my nose and vote Liberal , whilst praying for a miracle so we get rid of the local Labour guy

What constituency are you in?
Does the Lib-dem candidate stand a chance?

who the fug

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Don't think he was referring to Ireland.


What constituency are you in?
Does the Lib-dem candidate stand a chance?

The Liberal walla hasn't got a chance in hell and the Labour MP is badly in need of a boot up the arse

As to my constituency (don't laugh) Islington North

BoJack Horseman

who the fug wrote: »

As to my constituency (don't laugh) Islington North

Hey, I don't know one constituency from another.

Your right though, Labour won that seat by 12,000 votes last time.
Its more than likely a lock.

BlitzKrieg

afatbollix wrote: »

Sure **** it lads lets go back to having the Queen ruling over us and thats it. This voting is too much hard work.


:rolleyes:

if it was too much hard work I wouldnt have shown up at all. Especially considering when I first went down I wasnt even on the register, they'd messed up and not put me on because I had the same first initial and surname as my sister who's also registered in the same area and they assumed we must be the same person. I had to shout down the phone to get my registration sorted.

I did a lot of work reaching out to my local candidates, shame most never reached back and the few that did only gave the bare minimum of responses to the downright apathetic.

Consider our green candidate

he's the deputy leader of the whole damn party. So he must be on the ball. So when that issue of the greens policy to shorten copyright to 20 years broke I naturally messaged him cause thats a policy that directly affected me and my work. No response, mps in different areas were all giving different answers and it took a few days for what appeared to be a clear answer given, but our candidate said nothing, didnt even forward the other mp's answer or anything, this ignoring us went on for 2 weeks, it got to the point that the mp for the constituency next to us for the greens started answering in his place the 2 nights before the election.

Fed up I wrote a very lengthy emailing outlining the issues I've had with his campaign and the issues we wanted answers on and this is the response I got:

"Dear XXX Thanks for your feedback, I'll Try to do better next time"


We never got anything else from the Greens in our area, no leaflet, no canvassers, nothing. And this is their deputy leader for god's sake!

That was the Greens

The conservative when we messaged told us he was out canvassing every day, but his twitter feed showed him canvassing in Camden entirely, a seat the conservatives have a chance to win. Thats great but why should I vote for someone who decided he wasn't even going to canvass his constituency


The Labour candidate just assumed she'd won it, never saw a sign of her and again no leaflets or canvassers, all the local shops supported her though. Shame when asked about her expenses scandal the last time she was an mp she said she was drawing a line under that episode and its behind her. Never explained why she needs two homes equal distance from westminster in london.

You can pretty much apply this to every candidate in our area, no leaflets, no canvassers, no responses to emails and messages from us, the closest we got was the new lib dem candidate saying she would canvass our area and if we tell her our address she will make sure to stop by to answer questions.

and she didnt, not even a *we missed you leaflet* and we directly gave her our address


I made the effort, the political system just shrugged me off, so i'm shrugging them off.


I imagine if any of them actually thought anyone but labour were going to take Brent Central they'd made the effort and I'd gladly cast my vote, even if I had to vote tactically, but they all wrote the area off before it even started. The lib dems got screwed when the candidate they were grooming (I got christmas letters from him!) got caught committing fraud and was kicked from the party. Still he ran as an independent...but someone willing to commit funding fraud wont get my vote either.

Clearlier

Jon Stark wrote: »

I've followed the lead up to this election with interest and saw a few of the live debates. What do you think about Miliband's insistence that he won't form a coalition with the SNP?

I can respect what he was trying to do, i.e. portray himself as a strong leader and Labour as a strong party that doesn't need a coalition. I also think Miliband has done well for the most part in this election campaign.

However I really think his attitude towards the SNP will, at the very least, put a dent in the image he tried to portray of himself. I'm sure there is a way for Labour to find common ground with the SNP, but Miliband will have to do some serious spin to lessen his previous comments.

I think that Miliband had to distance himself from the SNP for two reasons. The first is for Scottish seats - if Scottish voters sense that the SNP and Labour will form a coalition then they'll likely vote for the SNP as they're not that far apart in terms of their ethos so Miliband needed to make it clear that a vote for labour was more significant than a vote for the SNP. He also needed to do it to head off the Tories from claiming that he would 'break up the union'.

If it happens that Labour and the SNP have enough seats to form a government then I think that he'll either have to get an agreement that there won't be another referendum on Scottish Independence during the lifetime of the parliament (very achievable IMO) or he'll attempt to form a minority government.

ancapailldorcha

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Why, if you dont mind me asking?

What would be better for the UK for having the SNP in charge?

Not at all. I'd classify myself as centre-left. I strongly believe in the NHS, government and narrowing the gap in inequality. Labour's policies are a tad lukewarm IMO hence the bit about the SNP.

Jon Stark wrote: »

I've followed the lead up to this election with interest and saw a few of the live debates. What do you think about Miliband's insistence that he won't form a coalition with the SNP?

I can respect what he was trying to do, i.e. portray himself as a strong leader and Labour as a strong party that doesn't need a coalition. I also think Miliband has done well for the most part in this election campaign.

However I really think his attitude towards the SNP will, at the very least, put a dent in the image he tried to portray of himself. I'm sure there is a way for Labour to find common ground with the SNP, but Miliband will have to do some serious spin to lessen his previous comments.

I thought it was depressing to be honest, mainly because he specified that he'd rather not be PM. If he follows through with this, I can't see him continuing on as party leader. The problem is that Labour's campaign has been dictated by the Tories hence ruling out a coalition with the SNP and this nonsense about cutting the deficit.

Lemming

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I thought it was depressing to be honest, mainly because he specified that he'd rather not be PM. If he follows through with this, I can't see him continuing on as party leader. The problem is that Labour's campaign has been dictated by the Tories hence ruling out a coalition with the SNP and this nonsense about cutting the deficit.

Not helped by several deeply arrogant statements by Sturgeon & Salmond about how they would lead Labour around by the nose in government. TBH, as pablomakeveli has pointed out, I think the noise made by the SNP is going to really hurt Labour outside of Scotland; it's certainly coloured my own view towards Labour (granted, locally Labour have not wrapped themselves in a flag of glory either with the ongoing near-daily revelations from the Rotherham child sex scandal)

djpbarry

Clearlier wrote: »

FWIW - I think that the Tories will be the biggest party with the most number of seats - probably not enough for a majority followed by Labour then UKIP will have a higher % but not as many seats as the Lib Dems.

I’d agree the Tories will probably win the most seats, but probably only about 10 more than Labour. SNP will win about 50, Lib Dems about 30.

UKIP will have no more than 1 or 2 seats.

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

Not helped by several deeply arrogant statements by Sturgeon & Salmond about how they would lead Labour around by the nose in government. TBH, as pablomakeveli has pointed out, I think the noise made by the SNP is going to really hurt Labour outside of Scotland; it's certainly coloured my own view towards Labour (granted, locally Labour have not wrapped themselves in a flag of glory either with the ongoing near-daily revelations from the Rotherham child sex scandal)

I remember reading something about Salmond bragging a short while ago. Didn't know Sturgeon was at the same. The SNP have been vilified in the English press with the Scottish Sun backing them most likely to break up the Labour vote. What have Labour to do with those scandals?

Thomas_.

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

if it was too much hard work I wouldnt have shown up at all. Especially considering when I first went down I wasnt even on the register, they'd messed up and not put me on because I had the same first initial and surname as my sister who's also registered in the same area and they assumed we must be the same person. I had to shout down the phone to get my registration sorted.

I did a lot of work reaching out to my local candidates, shame most never reached back and the few that did only gave the bare minimum of responses to the downright apathetic.

Consider our green candidate

he's the deputy leader of the whole damn party. So he must be on the ball. So when that issue of the greens policy to shorten copyright to 20 years broke I naturally messaged him cause thats a policy that directly affected me and my work. No response, mps in different areas were all giving different answers and it took a few days for what appeared to be a clear answer given, but our candidate said nothing, didnt even forward the other mp's answer or anything, this ignoring us went on for 2 weeks, it got to the point that the mp for the constituency next to us for the greens started answering in his place the 2 nights before the election.

Fed up I wrote a very lengthy emailing outlining the issues I've had with his campaign and the issues we wanted answers on and this is the response I got:

"Dear XXX Thanks for your feedback, I'll Try to do better next time"


We never got anything else from the Greens in our area, no leaflet, no canvassers, nothing. And this is their deputy leader for god's sake!

That was the Greens

The conservative when we messaged told us he was out canvassing every day, but his twitter feed showed him canvassing in Camden entirely, a seat the conservatives have a chance to win. Thats great but why should I vote for someone who decided he wasn't even going to canvass his constituency


The Labour candidate just assumed she'd won it, never saw a sign of her and again no leaflets or canvassers, all the local shops supported her though. Shame when asked about her expenses scandal the last time she was an mp she said she was drawing a line under that episode and its behind her. Never explained why she needs two homes equal distance from westminster in london.

You can pretty much apply this to every candidate in our area, no leaflets, no canvassers, no responses to emails and messages from us, the closest we got was the new lib dem candidate saying she would canvass our area and if we tell her our address she will make sure to stop by to answer questions.

and she didnt, not even a *we missed you leaflet* and we directly gave her our address


I made the effort, the political system just shrugged me off, so i'm shrugging them off.


I imagine if any of them actually thought anyone but labour were going to take Brent Central they'd made the effort and I'd gladly cast my vote, even if I had to vote tactically, but they all wrote the area off before it even started. The lib dems got screwed when the candidate they were grooming (I got christmas letters from him!) got caught committing fraud and was kicked from the party. Still he ran as an independent...but someone willing to commit funding fraud wont get my vote either.

Interesting post of yours and I would be as much disappointed after such experiences as you are. It seems as if the parties and their candidates trust too much on what they´ve on their internet websites and can cherry pick the places where they think it´s safe to win.

That story from you is indeed something that puts one off.

Btw., recently reported live news on the BBC News page show that some trouble with ballot papers occure again.

15:36
In Darlington, the council says about 89 ballot papers at one polling station missed off the name of one of the candidates standing for election .

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-32594267

That´s the second time a general election has such problems, apart from your negative experiences.

Clearlier

djpbarry wrote: »

I’d agree the Tories will probably win the most seats, but probably only about 10 more than Labour. SNP will win about 50, Lib Dems about 30.

UKIP will have no more than 1 or 2 seats.

You're absolutely right. I managed to muddle myself with the point I was making about share of the national vote compared to share of the seats. UKIP's no. of seats will not be a reflection of their share of the national vote (as Lib Dem's wasn't in the last election). Local parties get much closer to a representative no. of seats as they tend only to put up candidates in their own countries.

BOHtox

Any exit polls or is it too early still?

enda1

BOHtox wrote: »

Any exit polls or is it too early still?

Illegal to publish exit polls while the polls are still open in the UK.

BOHtox

enda1 wrote: »

Illegal to publish exit polls while the polls are still open in the UK.

So 10 o'clock before we see anything like that?

enda1

BOHtox wrote: »

So 10 o'clock before we see anything like that?

Yip.

See here for loads of details

A Dub in Glasgo

Clearlier wrote: »

I think that Miliband had to distance himself from the SNP for two reasons. The first is for Scottish seats - if Scottish voters sense that the SNP and Labour will form a coalition then they'll likely vote for the SNP as they're not that far apart in terms of their ethos so Miliband needed to make it clear that a vote for labour was more significant than a vote for the SNP. He also needed to do it to head off the Tories from claiming that he would 'break up the union'.

The primary reason Miliband said that is because he allowed the Tories and the mainstream media to frame the debate and he was chasing the South of England vote. The Labour Party in Scotland were beyond redemption and Labour knew that so his views were not aimed here as it is would have very little influence. I do not know how much influence his statement has in England.

The point that most folk in the media (and elsewhere) miss is the right of any MP to influence proceedings post election. The Tories have played the English Nationalist card and have been egged on by the press to demonise the choice of the people in Scotland

BlitzKrieg

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The primary reason Miliband said that is because he allowed the Tories and the mainstream media to frame the debate and he was chasing the South of England vote. The Labour Party in Scotland were beyond redemption and Labour knew that so his views were not aimed here as it is would have very little influence. I do not know how much influence his statement has in England.

The point that most folk in the media (and elsewhere) miss is the right of any MP to influence proceedings post election. The Tories have played the English Nationalist card and have been egged on by the press to demonise the choice of the people in Scotland

Curious if they had the referendum after the election how different things could have been?

would the tories etc been less vile in their attack on the snp or would the support for the snp not have been as strong?

A Dub in Glasgo

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Curious if they had the referendum after the election how different things could have been?

would the tories etc been less vile in their attack on the snp or would the support for the snp not have been as strong?

It is Jeckyll and Hyde, Mr nice before the referendum, Mr Nasty afterwards. That goes for Labour, Tories, Lib Dems and the media

I think the people in Scotland realise there is a different way to the Westminster duopoly within the UK. The UK Parliament forced PR on the Scottish Parliament yet they resist it themselves with all their energy.

The best thing about this election is the vivid demonstration of the undemocratic nature of FPTP

djpbarry

Clearlier wrote: »

You're absolutely right. I managed to muddle myself with the point I was making about share of the national vote compared to share of the seats. UKIP's no. of seats will not be a reflection of their share of the national vote (as Lib Dem's wasn't in the last election).

Ah, fair enough. Yeah, can't see UKIP getting anything outside Kent. They'll probably hang onto Clacton and Farage has an outside chance of winning in Thurrock, but that's pretty much it.

A Dub in Glasgo

Just back from voting, 2 from our house for the SNP My constituency is this one and will be a very tall ask if the SNP can take the seat from Labour

ancapailldorcha

Every little helps...