UK Election 2015

BOHtox

Who's staying up on Thursday night to watch it? Probably the most exciting election of my life time as it's too close to call and some of the obvious coalitions will fall short i.e. Tory- Lib Dem or Labour-SNP.

I'll be up anyway watching it on Sky News keeping a close eye on the Conservative vote

edit: I have no idea how to do a poll but if anyone would like to add a few parties to a poll that would be great :pac:

BoJack Horseman

I'll stay up as long as I can.
A long hot night with David Dimbleby is on the cards.

Prediction time:

Labour will get the most seats.
Cons will win the popular vote.
Ed will be the next PM.

Benny_Cake

Work on Friday so I don't think I'll be up too late. It'll be interesting to see how things turn out, I think the Tories will get the most seats but Miliband will be PM. I suspect that much depends on how bad of a night the Lib Dems have.

dasdog

I'm considering a day off for this or an early alarm clock. Any idea when a picture may start to form for projected seats, 3:00am to 5:00am perhaps?

BoJack Horseman

The first results are around 3am I think.

Rising for work on Friday a broad picture will be emerging.

Thomas_.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I'll stay up as long as I can.
A long hot night with David Dimbleby is on the cards.

Prediction time:

Labour will get the most seats.
Cons will win the popular vote.
Ed will be the next PM.

I´ll try to get some coverage via CNN (can´t receive BBC News on the telly where I live).

I still have my doubts about Ed becoming next PM. The worst thing would be to see the Tory Party getting in a coalition with UKIP if other constalations fail.

InTheTrees

We'll be watching the results here on the us west coast where the polls close just as I get off work at about midday.
its going to be fascinating.

BoJack Horseman

Thomas_. wrote: »

I still have my doubts about Ed becoming next PM. The worst thing would be to see the Tory Party getting in a coalition with UKIP if other constalations fail.

Ukip aren't likely to have the seats to be kingmakers.

Its looking like 3-4 seats at best for them.

I'm not sure how a Labour/SNP government is any better for the people of Britain than the Tories!

Its why the Tories are eeking ahead in the final polls.
A lot of English voters are looking at the ugly scenes from the ultra-nationalists north of the border & are saying 'no thanks'.

But as Labour need fewer votes to win more seats than the Tories, Ed will win out in the end.

Playboy

It's going to be tough to call. I think we could be facing another election before Christmas. Lib Dems have made a Europe referendum a red line so that is going to make it difficult for them to reach an agreement with the Tories. Ed Milliband has been saying he wont do a deal with the SNP but I cant see how else he will form a government. People in England are not happy with how much potential power the SNP will wield given that they will only amount to approx 4% of the vote but will have 50 seats compared to the Greens with the same percentage of votes and 1 seat.

Cameron will win the most seats for a single party and will have first crack at forming a government as he is the incumbent prime minister and the largest party. I'm not sure he will secure a majority though. Safe money will be on Ed and Nicola doing a deal. If this happens then Ed will lose a lot of support in England.

InTheTrees

Playboy wrote: »

It's going to be tough to call. I think we could be facing another election before Christmas. Lib Dems have made a Europe referendum a red line so that is going to make it difficult for them to reach an agreement with the Tories. Ed Milliband has been saying he wont do a deal with the SNP but I cant see how else he will form a government. People in England are not happy with how much potential power the SNP will wield given that they will only amount to approx 4% of the vote but will have 50 seats compared to the Greens with the same percentage of votes and 1 seat.

Cameron will win the most seats for a single party and will have first crack at forming a government as he is the incumbent prime minister and the largest party. I'm not sure he will secure a majority though. Safe money will be on Ed and Nicola doing a deal. If this happens then Ed will lose a lot of support in England.

I agree. There will be another conservative/lib dem coalition and Cameron will stay in no.10, but Labour/SNP opposition to the queens speech vote will mean another election right away.

Or will the Lib Dems loose so many seats that they are no no help to the Conservatives?

jcsoulinger

Labour/ SNP will form the next government could also see the remaining lib dems jump to this ship if they were needed,

Won't be staying up tho as the real fun will be in the following week when the parties negotiate power.

A Dub in Glasgo

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

A lot of English voters are looking at the ugly scenes from the ultra-nationalists north of the border & are saying 'no thanks'.

Can you summarise those 'ugly scenes'?

A Dub in Glasgo

This election is demonstrating one thing and that how shite the FPTP system is. I have been saying it since I moved here but it is galling to hear the Tories and Labour now decrying the system

The SNP MP's have as much right to have their say on who forms the next UK Government as any other MP. The attempt by the Tories and the main stream media to de-legitimise their right is something else.

Kalyke

dasdog wrote: »

I'm considering a day off for this or an early alarm clock. Any idea when a picture may start to form for projected seats, 3:00am to 5:00am perhaps?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11475225/date-and-time.html

11pm
Houghton & Sunderland South –traditionally the first seat to declare. Safe Labour territory
1am
Nuneaton - one of the first seats on the Labour target list to declare. If Labour don't win this from the Tories, Ed Miliband is in for a bad night.
2am.
Battersea, currently held by the Tories, is a top Labour target in London.
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow, Glenrothes, Kirkaldy & Cowdenbeath and Lanark & Hamilton East. SNP gains here will confirm that a sea-change is underway in Scotland.
2.15am
Thornbury and Yate - held by the Lib Dems in 2010: can the Conservatives obliterate their coalition partners in the south-west of England? Gains from the Lib Dems are key to Tory hopes.
2.30am
City of Chester: a Conservative vs Labour contest. A Labour gain would suggest the party is having a good night.
Westminster North – another Conservative-held Labour target in London.
3am
Bedford: Tory-held in 2010, this is another key battle between Conservative and Labour.
Bolton West – this was a top Tory target in 2010, but Labour held on. A Conservative gain here would suggest the party is on course for a great night.
Carlisle – Conservatives have thrown resources into defending one of their rare northern seats from Labour.
Croydon Central: Big, big test of Tory resilience in London. Can the Conservatives hold here in face of strong challenge from Labour and loss of votes to Ukip?
Hampstead and Kilburn – Tories came within an inch of a surprise win here in 2010. A win here this time would be an even bigger surprise.
Thurrock – Ukip’s best hope? Tim Aker hopes to be the party’s first MP elected at a general election.
Gedling – another Tory target in 2010, but probably safe Labour this time. But a Tory win here would terrify Labour.
Kingston & Surbiton – can Ed Davey, a Lib Dem Cabinet minister keep his seat?
3.30am
Enfield North - Conservative-held marginal: a Labour gain would hurt David Cameron badly.
Blackpool North and Cleveleys - Conservative-held marginal: a Labour gain would hurt David Cameron badly.
Loughborough – Nicky Morgan, Tory education secretary, is defending a marginal seat here.
Weaver Vale – Tory-held marginal in the north-west; key test of Tory fortunes in the region with the most marginal seats.
4am
Broxtowe - Conservative-held marginal: a Labour gain would hurt David Cameron badly.
Doncaster North – Ed Miliband’s victory speech will give clues about Labour morale and strategy.
4.30am
Sheffield Hallam: Will Nick Clegg survive?

Clacton – Douglas Carswell is seeking to keep this seat for Ukip, and most Tories expect him to win. A Conservative gain here would delight and surprise Tories.
Witney - David Cameron's victory speech here will show us how the Conservatives will approach the overall results: will he claim victory even if he doesn't have a majority, or hint at another deal with the Lib Dems?
5am
Inverness – Danny Alexander, another senior Lib Dem, is fighting for his life against the SNP.
Brentford & Isleworth – another key Tory marginal in London.
Hove, Brighton & Kempton, Wirral West and Warrington South – all marginals held by the Tories in 2010: losses to Labour here will be major setbacks to the Conservatives.
Finchley and Golders Green – a Labour gain from the Conservatives in Margaret Thatcher’s old seat would be unlikely but dramatic.
Rochester and Strood – Mark Reckless is defending this seat for Ukip, a key test of the Tories’ ability to win back Ukippers.
Uxbridge and Ruislip South – Boris Johnson will win, but will he be celebrating a Tory return to government?
Noon on Friday
Warwick & Leamington – another crucial Conservative vs Labour marginal. If the overall numbers are very close, we could be waiting for the result here to tell us who can govern.
1pm
St Ives - due to be the last constituency to declare. Will the general election hang on the result here, where the Lib Dems are trying to hang on to a seat they've held since 1997.

A Dub in Glasgo

I will be up watching the results come in from about 02.00 and it will be a joy to see some of the Labour MP's in Scotland get their comeuppance

Clearlier

Playboy wrote: »

It's going to be tough to call. I think we could be facing another election before Christmas. Lib Dems have made a Europe referendum a red line so that is going to make it difficult for them to reach an agreement with the Tories.

Actually, they've very pointedly declined to make not having a referendum on Europe a red line issue for them.

BoJack Horseman

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Can you summarise those 'ugly scenes'?

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-scotland-32595499

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-snp-suspends-two-members-for-disrupting-glasgow-labour-rally-10226906.html

The SNP has suspended two of its members for disrupting a Scottish Labour rally in the centre of Glasgow, in scenes which opponents described as “the ugly face of nationalism”.

Attacking political opponents sure ain't pretty.
Labour may struggle to win England if they think this brand of hostility will be their new government.

InTheTrees

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

This election is demonstrating one thing and that how shite the FPTP system is. I have been saying it since I moved here but it is galling to hear the Tories and Labour now decrying the system

I agree, except they had a referendum in 2011 specifically to that issue and voted against PR.

Benny_Cake

InTheTrees wrote: »

I agree, except they had a referendum in 2011 specifically to that issue and voted against PR.

Not PR exactly, Alternative Vote, which represented a tiny improvement over the status quo. It was strenuously opposed by the Tories, Labour, and most of the media - the very people who are now worrying about an SNP surge.

BoJack Horseman

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

This election is demonstrating one thing and that how shite the FPTP system is.

Amen to that.
Its stupid how the votes of so many millions count for next to nothing.
All that matters are the marginal seats.

Opinion polls become redundant with FPTP.
Eg: the opinion polls say that UKIP have 1st preference support of about 6.5 million UK adults.... Yet the party is apparently nip-tuck to take just 1 seat!


The greens have 2.5 million commited 1st preference holders in the polls, but will only get 2 seats.

Insanity

it is galling to hear the Tories and Labour now decrying the system

Considering how condescending "Call me Dave"© Cameron, was about the PR referendum, good enough for him.

Kalyke

Benny_Cake wrote: »

Not PR exactly, Alternative Vote, which represented a tiny improvement over the status quo. It was strenuously opposed by the Tories, Labour, and most of the media - the very people who are now worrying about an SNP surge.

Which is ironic, as the Tories would have picked up (projected) 30 more seats if AV had been passed!

Manach

Responding to OP's, no plans to do so. Both labour and conservatives have coleasce into fairly Middle of the road policies. Both have been show to be fairly dependable governing in their respective turns. It will be interesting to see the vote share of the national parties and how that effects a future coalition.

InTheTrees

I think Nicola Sturgeon should be PM!

Mr.Nice Guy

I predict the Tories will win the most seats but will fall short of being able to cobble together the necessary numbers.

I think it will be a Labour minority government with SNP support on an issue-by-issue basis.

Scotland will be the big story of the election. From the point of view of those who seek another independence referendum, a coalition involving the Tories, UKIP, and the DUP would be a nightmare scenario for most Scots and would likely see an EU referendum in two years. This would give Sturgeon the perfect card to play to place another indy referendum in her manifesto next year for Holyrood. A Labour win on the other hand would upset this strategy as they won't call an EU referendum and it would be interesting to see if Sturgeon would push for another indy referendum next year with Miliband in Downing Street.

Closer to home, East Belfast will be one to watch. I suspect the unionist pact will see off Naomi Long of the Alliance party which I think would be a pity as she has impressed me whenever I've listened to her. I can see the DUP going up to 9 seats.

Fr Tod Umptious

A bit like ourselves the British could do with a bit of stability during their economic recovery, and as result I can see people move towards the status quo when it come to the crunch, and away from the possibility of the SNP being in power.

BoJack Horseman

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

East Belfast will be one to watch. I suspect the unionist pact will see off Naomi Long of the Alliance party which I think would be a pity as she has impressed me whenever I've listened to her. I can see the DUP going up to 9 seats.

Are there any other marginals in NI to watch put for?

Could SF sweep all the nationalist seats?

A Dub in Glasgo

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-scotland-32595499

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-snp-suspends-two-members-for-disrupting-glasgow-labour-rally-10226906.html



Attacking political opponents sure ain't pretty.
Labour may struggle to win England if they think this brand of hostility will be their new government.

I just knew you were going to post that one, a storm in a teacup orchestrated by Murphy

It was 4 guys heckling and throwing abuse at Murphy that was reported as 'chaos on the streets on Glasgow'. Totally blown out of all proportions by the media

Mr.Nice Guy

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Are there any other marginals in NI to watch put for?

Fermanagh and South Tyrone is the most marginal seat in all of the UK. Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew took it last time by a margin of just 4 votes. The UUP's Tom Elliot is her biggest threat and due to the unionist pact he won't have a DUP candidate to worry about.

It's predicted to be very close again. Sinn Fein are expected to retain the seat but it will be an interesting one to watch.

Benny_Cake

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Are there any other marginals in NI to watch put for?

South Belfast - Alistair McDonnell of the SDLP may be at risk of losing his seat with a strong Sinn Felin challenger and DUP and UUP candidates in the running.

I hope Naomi Long holds on in East Belfast.

BoJack Horseman

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

It was 4 guys heckling and throwing abuse at Murphy that was reported as 'chaos on the streets on Glasgow'. Totally blown out of all proportions by the media

Someone should tell the SNP to unsuspend those gentlemen then, what with it all being labours fault.

The SNP have a miscarriage of justice to answer to!

A Dub in Glasgo

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Someone should tell the SNP to unsuspend those gentlemen then, what with it all being labours fault.

The SNP have a miscarriage of justice to answer to!

I am sorry, you are seriously equating a couple of SNP members heckling Murphy as 'ugly scenes from the ultra-nationalists north of the border' deciding English voters to say no thanks to Labour? Seriously?

I thought you had more than that 30 seconds heckle from the 'Battle of St Enoch Square'!

Have a read of this
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/a-decade-of-disruption-a-profile-of-freelance-agitator-sean-clerkin.1430819611

and especially this comment on that article

BoJack Horseman

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I am sorry,

dont be!

you are seriously equating a couple of SNP members heckling Murphy as 'ugly scenes from the ultra-nationalists north of the border' deciding English voters to say no thanks to Labour? Seriously?

I don't really personally

Baying morons appear just as what they are, baying morons...... not worth the time.


But think of how that looks to english voters.

If thats how they treat their fellow Scots, what have they in store for the english.

There is no positive spin you can put on that image, it just looks terrible no matter what the nationalist supporters think, Sturgeon had no choice but to act.

If there was no wrong done, there would have been no suspensions, end of.

The Tory press headlines practically write themselves!

Boulevardier

Here are 2 nightmare scenarios from the point of a (non-tory) watcher of tomorrow night's UK election results:

1. Exit polls give Cameron a chance of an outright majority, but this depends on a handful of seats which do not declare until about 4am. This would be utterly excruciating.

2. This one is worse. Exit polls do not look good for Cameron, but as the results come in he starts winning and it becomes clear that the exit polls were wrong. This is almost head-in-the-oven territory.

I have an awful feeling that one of the above will happen. Please let me be wrong.

A Dub in Glasgo

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

dont be!



I don't really personally

Baying morons appear just as what they are, baying morons...... not worth the time.


But think of how that looks to english voters.

If thats how they treat their fellow Scots, what have they in store for the english.

There is no positive spin you can put on that image, it just looks terrible no matter what the nationalist supporters think, Sturgeon had no choice but to act.

If there was no wrong done, there would have been no suspensions, end of.

The Tory press headlines practically write themselves!

You seem to be adept at writing the headlines for them with ''ugly scenes from the ultra-nationalists north of the border'.

so apart from this bit of heckling, Clerkin was tipped off about the Murphy 'rally' by the LP, have you anything to back up your statement?

BoJack Horseman

Boulevardier wrote: »

Here are 2 nightmare scenarios from the point of a (non-tory) watcher of tomorrow night's UK election results:

1. Exit polls give Cameron a chance of an outright majority, but this depends on a handful of seats which do not declare until about 4am. This would be utterly excruciating.

2. This one is worse. Exit polls do not look good for Cameron, but as the results come in he starts winning and it becomes clear that the exit polls were wrong. This is almost head-in-the-oven territory.

I have an awful feeling that one of the above will happen. Please let me be wrong.

Depends on UKIP.

I think neither of your scenarios will occur.
Last time the Tories got 36% & 306 seats.
This time they have UKIP.

If the Tories got 290, they would be happy.

pablomakaveli

I think the arrogant attitude of the SNP throughout the campaign has annoyed a lot of English voters. They're not well liked south of the border and the thought of them in a coalition won't appeal to many.

I dont want the Tories to win but i dont want to see a Labour/SNP coalition either.

BoJack Horseman

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

have you anything to back up your statement?

Just media reports.

Which, my tetchy SNP friend, you say are myth.

So, the folks in the south have nothing to worry about with the impending Milliband/Salmon's coalition.

A Dub in Glasgo

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Just media reports.

Which, my tetchy SNP friend, you say are myth.

So, the folks in the south have nothing to worry about with the impending Milliband/Salmon's coalition.

So you have media reports on one incident and that moves you to report 'ugly scenes from the ultra-nationalists north of the border'. The incident happened although it was not 'chaos on the streets of Glasgow' and Clerkin was tipped off by the LP that Murphy would be in St Enoch Square

A Dub in Glasgo

pablomakaveli wrote: »

I dont want the Tories to win but i dont want to see a Labour/SNP coalition either.

You won't see a Labour/SNP coalition, the SNP ruled that out ages ago

Fr Tod Umptious

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

You won't see a Labour/SNP coalition, the SNP ruled that out ages ago

Ah come on.

If Ed came knocking in a few days the SNP would not be ruling anything out.

The same goes for the Lib Dems too by the way, if approached by Cameron, the EU referendum red line would be fudged away in some shape or form

BoJack Horseman

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

You won't see a Labour/SNP coalition, the SNP ruled that out ages ago

Ed ruled it out (oddly)
Sturgeon has said she's open to a deal

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-sturgeon-orders-key-members-of-holyrood-cabinet-to-head-straight-to-london-after-campaign-to-begin-negotiations-10224316.html

The Scottish National Party is preparing for post-election talks despite Labour leader Ed Miliband ruling out a formal deal with the party.
Ms Sturgeon has stated that she will personally lead any negotiations if her party holds the balance of power after the arithmetic of the election is known.

A Dub in Glasgo

I mean coalition ala Lib Dems in the outgoing Governement

The SNP will support Labour on an issue by issue basis as a minimum and a possible 'confidence and supply' arrangement being possible. The thing is though is that it is Labour who have painted themselves into a tight corner on this one and allowed the debate to be framed by the Tories about de-ligitimising the SNP MP's

BoJack Horseman

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I mean coalition ala Lib Dems in the outgoing Governement

The SNP will support Labour on an issue by issue basis as a minimum and a possible 'confidence and supply' arrangement being possible. The thing is though is that it is Labour who have painted themselves into a tight corner on this one and allowed the debate to be framed by the Tories about de-ligitimising the SNP MP's

It couldn't work though.
There has to be a programme for government of some stable merit.

An ad-hoc bil-by-bill agreement with the SNP will crucify Labour.

Eg:
Just shy of 200 bills went through Westminster in the last 12 months.
About 3/4 of them were government bills.

What happens when the SNP disagree with 1.... Or 10.... Or 50 bills..... chaos.

Such an arrangement would be a boon for Scotland, as the amount of pork barrel spending would be huge to keep bills passing.

If PM Ed didn't stump up, his legislative agenda would be in ruins.

A Dub in Glasgo

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

It couldn't work though.
There has to be a programme for government of some stable merit.

An ad-hoc bil-by-bill agreement with the SNP will crucify Labour.

Eg:
Just shy of 200 bills went through Westminster in the last 12 months.
About 3/4 of them were government bills.

What happens when the SNP disagree with 1.... Or 10.... Or 50 bills..... chaos.

Such an arrangement would be a boon for Scotland, as the amount of pork barrel spending would be huge to keep bills passing.

If PM Ed didn't stump up, his legislative agenda would be in ruins.

In the absence of PR, that is something that needs to be grappled with. If the polls are any way correct, the SNP will be the 3rd biggest party in the UK Parliament

Clearlier

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Ah come on.

If Ed came knocking in a few days the SNP would not be ruling anything out.

The same goes for the Lib Dems too by the way, if approached by Cameron, the EU referendum red line would be fudged away in some shape or form

The Lib Dems have not said that an EU referendum is a red line for them. In fact when asked by the media if it was a red line Clegg said that it isn't.

Fr Tod Umptious

Clearlier wrote: »

The Lib Dems have not said that an EU referendum is a red line for them. In fact when asked by the media if it was a red line Clegg said that it isn't.

Thanks for the clarification , I am only reading and seeing snippets of this campaign so I'll admit to not knowing the full facts

By the way, what is the Red Line, or is there even one ?

A Dub in Glasgo

Clearlier wrote: »

The Lib Dems have not said that an EU referendum is a red line for them. In fact when asked by the media if it was a red line Clegg said that it isn't.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32568840

BoJack Horseman

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Thanks for the clarification , I am only reading and seeing snippets of this campaign so I'll admit to not knowing the full facts

By the way, what is the Red Line, or is there even one ?

Nick has been busy with red lines everywhere.

The deputy prime minister set out the Lib Dems’ first non-negotiable manifesto policy for a coalition deal on Monday – a commitment to protect education funding in real terms for four- to 19-year-olds

Other red lines outlined by Clegg this week include passing a stability budget within the first 50 days of the next parliament

Increasing the tax-free personal allowance to £12,500 by 2020

In the fourth “red line” announcement this week, the party said it would insist on investing an extra £8bn each year in the health service by the end of the next parliament,

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/01/lib-dems-to-announce-fourth-election-red-line-the-nhs

Fr Tod Umptious

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Nick has been busy with red lines everywhere.









http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/01/lib-dems-to-announce-fourth-election-red-line-the-nhs

every one of those are fairly fudgable , so explaining them away should not be too much of a big deal for him when it comes to explaining why he is back in Govt.

BoJack Horseman

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

every one of those are fairly fudgable , so explaining them away should not be too much of a big deal for him when it comes to explaining why he is back in Govt.

Exactly...

And achieving them is no great shakes either.

Commiting to spending £118bn on the NHS by 2020 over the £110bn its currently costing is essentially just 'rate of inflation' increases.

Hardly the stuff worthy of a statue in parliament square.

An Ciarraioch

A flurry of polls tonight, but Con and Lab remain deadlocked. Looks like the Tories will win most seats, but Labour have more potential coalition partners, so looks like Miliband will ultimately become PM.