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General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

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    #902
    primary 2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 247 ✭✭primary 2


    it looks like the last seat will be a battle between kelly and smith, smith should pick up alot of coonans transfers but kelly should pick up alot of morris transfers so where will hayes transfers go? will they go like the partys have been promoting,so to kelly or will smith get a few?


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    #903
    Xenophile
    Registered Users Posts: 4,069 ✭✭✭Xenophile


    It was a good idea to suspend the count at 22.00. Counters will need to be very fresh tomorrow as it looks like that it's going to be a tight finish !

    The Forum on Spirituality has been closed for years. Please bring it back, there are lots of Spiritual people in Ireland and elsewhere.



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    #904
    primary 2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 247 ✭✭primary 2


    Xenophile wrote: »
    It was a good idea to suspend the count at 22.00. Counters will need to be very fresh tomorrow as it looks like that it's going to be a tight finish !

    call it! do you think kelly will pull away or will the gap close


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    #905
    Xenophile
    Registered Users Posts: 4,069 ✭✭✭Xenophile


    primary 2 wrote: »
    call it! do you think kelly will pull away or will the gap close


    Kelly will pull it off ! Thanks to his hard work and hard neck, the transfers he gets from John Delaney will help him win it !

    The Forum on Spirituality has been closed for years. Please bring it back, there are lots of Spiritual people in Ireland and elsewhere.



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    #906
    It wasnt me123
    Registered Users Posts: 1,722 ✭✭✭It wasnt me123


    Xenophile wrote: »
    Kelly will pull it off ! Thanks to his your hard work and his hard neck, the transfers he gets from John Delaney will help him win it !

    FYP

    Shame really, I wish you were back on Tipp FM. Loved the show


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    #907
    honeybear
    Registered Users Posts: 5,648 ✭✭✭honeybear


    Hate to say it but think Morris elimination will favour Kelly


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    #908
    solerina
    Registered Users Posts: 2,433 ✭✭✭solerina


    CrowdedHouse wrote: »
    Whatever about Lowry, that's some vote for Mattie McGrath

    I didn't think that was ever in doubt, I used to grin every time I read on here that he would struggle. Mattie does an awful lot for people in South Tipp, anyone I know who had ever asked him for help with anything is still singing his praises.


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    #909
    mahoney_j
    Registered Users Posts: 11,077 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    I think Kelly will get in and take last seat ,ironically with transfers from Seamus Morris when he is illiminated .


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    #910
    tipptom
    Registered Users Posts: 4,219 ✭✭✭tipptom


    mahoney_j wrote: »
    I think Kelly will get in and take last seat ,ironically with transfers from Seamus Morris when he is illiminated .
    Would a good few of Morrises votes go to Healy though as they are of fairly close ideologically?


    I get geographically that Kelly will get the most of them but I don't think it will be as much as people think.
    I think Healy still has a fighting chance,Maureen o Sullivan? was at home in her sitting room considering what to do next in her life when she had to go back to the count centre to accept her "lost" seat.


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    #911
    tipptom
    Registered Users Posts: 4,219 ✭✭✭tipptom


    No matter what you think of Mattie that was a phenomenal person poll,wonder what he got from N Tipp.


    Guess what I was hearing about Hayes election canvas came true on paper.


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    #912
    primary 2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 247 ✭✭primary 2


    so it is looking like two from healy.kelly,smith and hayes. It was on the radio that noel coonan advised his voters to give there number 2 to smith so if this happens smith should be still ahead of hayes when morris is eliminated so you would think kelly and smith would get a nice few as kelly is nenagh based and near roscrea but with healy being left wing he will proably do well also so if hayes is eliminated out of healy smith and kelly who would be best placed to win the two seats? if smith is eliminated first i think hayes might just make ahead of healy


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    #913
    frankz
    Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭frankz


    Distribution of Coonans votes

    McGrath + 245 = 13064. elected

    Cahill + 427 = 9530

    Kelly + 1069 = 9456

    Hayes + 2347 = 9373

    Healy + 95 = 8572

    Smith + 600 = 8165


    Morris +167 = 6205 = eliminated.


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    #914
    frankz
    Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭frankz


    Distribution of Morris votes


    Healy + 2855 = 11427

    Cahill +584 = 10114

    Kelly +502 = 9958

    Hayes + 187 = 9560


    Smith + 726 = 8891 = eliminated


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    #915
    CrowdedHouse
    Registered Users Posts: 6,806 ✭✭✭CrowdedHouse


    I'd say Kelly got considerably less than he was hoping for in the last count

    Seven Worlds will Collide



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    #916
    Xenophile
    Registered Users Posts: 4,069 ✭✭✭Xenophile


    Fianna Fail's Michael Smith has been excluded after the fifth count and it looks like it could be a straight shootout for the final seat between Labour's Alan Kelly an FG's Tony Hayes.

    Who would have thought that this would be the finish ?

    The Forum on Spirituality has been closed for years. Please bring it back, there are lots of Spiritual people in Ireland and elsewhere.



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    #917
    touts
    Registered Users Posts: 6,433 ✭✭✭touts


    frankz wrote: »
    Distribution of Morris votes


    Healy + 2855 = 11427

    Cahill +584 = 10114

    Kelly +502 = 9958

    Hayes + 187 = 9560


    Smith + 726 = 8891 = eliminated

    Three seats and Four left.

    Party means Cahill is in. Geography means Kelly is in. Hayes won't pick up 2000 more of whats left than Healy so Healy will hang on and FG will lose both seats.


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    #918
    frankz
    Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭frankz


    Distribution of Smith votes

    Cahill + 4948 = 15062. Elected

    Healy + 602 = 12029

    Kelly + 1109 = 11067

    Hayes + 383 = 9943


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    #919
    Xenophile
    Registered Users Posts: 4,069 ✭✭✭Xenophile


    Alan Kelly is elected, a tremendous performance from him. Getting 10% of the first preference votes while the Labour Party nationally only got 6.6%.

    The Forum on Spirituality has been closed for years. Please bring it back, there are lots of Spiritual people in Ireland and elsewhere.



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    #920
    jonski
    Registered Users Posts: 6,389 ✭✭✭jonski


    Xenophile wrote:
    Alan Kelly is elected, a tremendous performance from him. Getting 10% of the first preference votes while the Labour Party nationally only got 6.6%.

    Are you kidding me .... A sitting minister scraps in to the last seat .


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    #921
    Xenophile
    Registered Users Posts: 4,069 ✭✭✭Xenophile


    jonski wrote: »
    Are you kidding me .... A sitting minister scraps in to the last seat .


    You got it right he is a scrapper !

    The Forum on Spirituality has been closed for years. Please bring it back, there are lots of Spiritual people in Ireland and elsewhere.



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    #922
    macjohn
    Registered Users Posts: 531 ✭✭✭macjohn


    Xenophile wrote: »
    Alan Kelly is elected, a tremendous performance from him. Getting 10% of the first preference votes while the Labour Party nationally only got 6.6%.

    Ya, he will be elected after the distribution of Cahills surplus.
    He is almost there! :-)


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    #923
    frankz
    Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭frankz


    Distribution of Cahill Surplus

    Healy + 845 = 12874

    Kelly + 683 = 11750

    Hayes + 494 = 10437. eliminated.

    Healy and Kelly elected (without reaching quota)

    Final result


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    #924
    macjohn
    Registered Users Posts: 531 ✭✭✭macjohn


    jonski wrote: »
    Are you kidding me .... A sitting minister scraps in to the last seat .

    Ah - Simon Coovney
    Joan Burton,
    did same.

    Hardly unusual.

    James Reilly & Tom Hayes scrapped and didn't get there.

    Just as a couple of examples


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    #925
    macjohn
    Registered Users Posts: 531 ✭✭✭macjohn


    frankz wrote: »
    Distribution of Cahill Surplus

    Healy + 845 = 12874

    Kelly + 683 = 11750

    Hayes + 494 = 10437. eliminated.

    Healy and Kelly elected (without reaching quota)

    Final result

    Thanks for providing the updates after each count. Much appreciated.


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    #926
    maudgone
    Registered Users Posts: 388 ✭✭maudgone


    jonski wrote: »
    Are you kidding me .... A sitting minister scraps in to the last seat .

    He's back until the next GE. Fair play to him, and all the other 157 TD's. Just get over it.


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    #927
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    jonski wrote: »
    Are you kidding me .... A sitting minister scraps in to the last seat .

    It might knock some of the arrogance out of him


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    #928
    Xenophile
    Registered Users Posts: 4,069 ✭✭✭Xenophile


    Deleted User wrote: »
    It might knock some of the arrogance out of him


    Shur don't you know he said " Power is a drug and it suits me"

    There is no doubt that he will be looking to unseat Joan Burton as party leader.

    Interesting times ahead !

    The Forum on Spirituality has been closed for years. Please bring it back, there are lots of Spiritual people in Ireland and elsewhere.



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    #929
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Xenophile wrote: »
    Shur don't you know he said " Power is a drug and it suits me"

    There is no doubt that he will be looking to unseat Joan Burton as party leader.

    Interesting times ahead !

    I just hope, for the sake of his Marriage that he doesn't do a Mick Fitzgerald on it and say it was better than sex! He looked that excited to have gotten through!


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    #930
    EternalHope
    Closed Accounts Posts: 177 ✭✭EternalHope


    jonski wrote: »
    Are you kidding me .... A sitting minister scraps in to the last seat .
    that is nonsense, how could he scrap when the votes are cast


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    #931
    jonski
    Registered Users Posts: 6,389 ✭✭✭jonski


    EternalHope wrote: »
    that is nonsense, how could he scrap when the votes are cast

    It was in response to the statement that 'it was a great performance from him '. He is a sitting minister and he was elected in last place , that doesn't seem like a great performance to me .


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