Aer Lingus Fleet/Routes Discussion

billie1b · 17-08-2016 9:22pm

Cravens wrote: »

I'm seeing on a certain rumour network that BA's younger 767's are earmarked for EI. I think it's a load of BS really. The rumour that I don't see as BS however, is that EI's A359s are to go to BA on the basis that they can carry as much as a 777-200ER while burning 20% less fuel.

Rumours around DUB also state this and that EI will be getting 3-4 747's from BA next year to replace the A350's they'll be taking from EI. I wouldn't read too much into it

Jamie2k9 · 17-08-2016 9:30pm

I cannot possibly see EI having a mixed fleet of any sort.

billie1b · 17-08-2016 9:34pm

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I cannot possibly see EI having a mixed fleet of any sort.

They already do

Locker10a · 17-08-2016 9:35pm

Well the 767 probably wouldn't be a bad aircraft for EI, although a lot of retraining of crew would be involved! I guess they would complement the 757s on certain routes.
It would be such a shame to loose the A350s.
I really can't see BA swapping 747s for EI350s. 777 maybe, but I imagine BA want and need ALL their 777s

Jamie2k9 · 17-08-2016 9:35pm

billie1b wrote: »

They already do

They don't, the 757's are not part of the fleet, the whole reasons they are not is based on cost and adding 747 or 767 that are not outsourced will not work commercially. I would expect them to continue to receive A330 in place of the A350 and cheap prices from Airbus.

Marcusm · 17-08-2016 9:44pm

BA's least premium 744 has 14F, 52J, 36W and 235Y seats. Leaving aside that EI doesn't offer two of those classes, which routes are premium heavy enough to utilise 3-4 of these thirsty birds for which EI does not have flight or cabin crew?

If you had suggested some of the 3 class Gatwick 772ERs compete with crew might be dumped on EI with Gatwick getting some of the 744s, I might have thought it realistic. The economy's not booming that much. While premium travel in the UK has constructed since the Brexit vote,and oil prices are forming, I would have thought it unlikely that these birds which are 26 years old would have enough juice in them to justify further capital and retraining expenditure to move them across to EI for what could only be a limited period.

Locker10a · 17-08-2016 9:47pm

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

billie1b wrote: »

They already do

They don't, the 757's are not part of the fleet, the whole reasons they are not is based on cost and adding 747 or 767 that are not outsourced will not work commercially. I would expect them to continue to receive A330 in place of the A350 and cheap prices from Airbus.

BA would possibly absorb the cost ( and possibly provide the training, as they'd have the facilities) for EI crews to become cross trained for the 767.
Out of interest with whom or where do EI train their CC for the 757?

Marcusm · 17-08-2016 9:49pm

Cravens wrote: »

I'm seeing on a certain rumour network that BA's younger 767's are earmarked for EI. I think it's a load of BS really. The rumour that I don't see as BS however, is that EI's A359s are to go to BA on the basis that they can carry as much as a 777-200ER while burning 20% less fuel.

I understood that the transatlantic 763s needed significant capex to continue transatlantic service and this could not be justified by BA. Hard to see how it, together with additional crew training costs, could be justified by EI with what I believe are lower fares.

Chromosphere · 17-08-2016 9:52pm

I'd suspect the rumours about the 747s are more likely coming from 747 enthusiasts. There wouldn't be much logic in putting less efficient planes into EI's fleet as it's a lower-cost operator model than BA is.

The fuel costs would have a serious impact on margins, much more dramatically than an airline with a higher % of business class / 1st class etc.

Jamie2k9 · 17-08-2016 9:53pm

Marcusm wrote: »

BA's least premium 744 has 14F, 52J, 36W and 235Y seats. Leaving aside that EI doesn't offer two of those classes, which routes are premium heavy enough to utilise 3-4 of these thirsty birds for which EI does not have flight or cabin crew?

If you had suggested some of the 3 class Gatwick 772ERs compete with crew might be dumped on EI with Gatwick getting some of the 744s, I might have thought it realistic. The economy's not booming that much. While premium travel in the UK has constructed since the Brexit vote,and oil prices are forming, I would have thought it unlikely that these birds which are 26 years old would have enough juice in them to justify further capital and retraining expenditure to move them across to EI for what could only be a limited period.

The 747 will still cost EI more per seat than the 330 and in a very competitive market higher costs are not what EI needs.

BA would possibly absorb the cost ( and possibly provide the training, as they'd have the facilities) for EI crews to become cross trained for the 767.
Out of interest with whom or where do EI train their CC for the 757?

BA won't pay for EI training, EI will have to pay BA to train them but BA could do it cheaper than a contractor would. Not sure who did the 757's but aren't the crew training on them only operating them or can they use 330 as well?

I understood that the transatlantic 763s needed significant capex to continue transatlantic service and this could not be justified by BA. Hard to see how it, together with additional crew training costs, could be justified by EI with what I believe are lower fares.

Clapped out old 767's would be a step backwards unless EI want to be the new AA out of DUB.

Nibs05 · 17-08-2016 9:55pm

The 744 rumours have been circulating around the ramp for a couple of weeks already, I work On the ramp and even I will only believe it when I'm actually handling one on the ramp, it would be nice to the queen of the sky's back in green though :rolleyes:

Chromosphere · 17-08-2016 9:55pm

Also, if the rumours are true it would effectively be turning EI into a dumping ground for old BA aircraft. That seems unlikely as it would just cause huge cash flow issues in Aer Lingus due to maintenance and fuel costs and probably even leave them open to higher risk of aircraft failures, delays, etc.

At the end of the day IAG needs to make a profit from all of its airlines. It's not going to make sense to undermine Aer Lingus' entire efficiency model to keep 'the good planes' in BA.

IAG ≠ BA.

TheFitz13 · 17-08-2016 10:01pm

I really don't want to see EI A350's go to another carrier in the group

Locker10a · 17-08-2016 10:07pm

TheFitz13 wrote: »

I really don't want to see EI A350's go to another carrier in the group

No one does, it's such a pity and also sad that EI will now not have a chance to expand their capacity etc. on well developed routes. Unless of course the 747 fairy tale rumour proves true but, well that won't happen

Nibs05 · 17-08-2016 10:08pm

TheFitz13 wrote: »

I really don't want to see EI A350's go to another carrier in the group

With the 4x A333's, currently it's looking unlikely we'll see a A350 in EI colours, I guess we just got to see how the next 2 years play out.

Cravens · 17-08-2016 10:19pm

Probably the most pressing issue for EI until the end of the decade is to come up with a plan for replacing both the B752's and the A332's. The 752's replacements are quite obvious really in the A321LR, and having heard other rumours of an A339 order on the horizon, I guess the A332's days with EI are also fairly numbered. However, this was only seen on a certain rumour network, so it can hardly be taken as gospel.

I think that if EI want to have some misadventure and plonk the 763's on DUB-Asia routes, then more power to them, but as I said, probably total BS. As for the 744 coming to EI, I would love to be proven wrong, but I think pigs will sprout wings before this happens.

Van.Bosch · 17-08-2016 10:42pm

When people say they would hate to see the A350's going to IB/BA is that from a spotters point of view? My understanding of IAG is that each op co has to compete for capital, so for someone to prove a case to IAG to take them which might not be preferable to EI. Also for IAG, if they want A350's in 2018/19/20 I'm sure they can get some from Airbus without having to take from EI.

Perhaps I'm being naive

17-08-2016 10:48pm

Cravens wrote: »

Probably the most pressing issue for EI until the end of the decade is to come up with a plan for replacing both the B752's and the A332's. The 752's replacements are quite obvious really in the A321LR, and having heard other rumours of an A339 order on the horizon, I guess the A332's days with EI are also fairly numbered. However, this was only seen on a certain rumour network, so it can hardly be taken as gospel.

I think that if EI want to have some misadventure and plonk the 763's on DUB-Asia routes, then more power to them, but as I said, probably total BS. As for the 744 coming to EI, I would love to be proven wrong, but I think pigs will sprout wings before this happens.

Plan for 332's is to return them at the end of their leases and replace with new -300's.

Plan for 757's is to order 321LR NEO's in the next year or so. I believe 4 plus options.

Absolutely no chance of 747's to EI only chance I see of 767's is running a shuttle to Heathrow.

Fattes · 18-08-2016 10:42am

Van.Bosch wrote: »

When people say they would hate to see the A350's going to IB/BA is that from a spotters point of view? My understanding of IAG is that each op co has to compete for capital, so for someone to prove a case to IAG to take them which might not be preferable to EI. Also for IAG, if they want A350's in 2018/19/20 I'm sure they can get some from Airbus without having to take from EI.

Perhaps I'm being naive

IAG have 30 a350 on order all ready! It looking more lie an EI problem. they are solely focused on the US market and don't want to risk new routes or capacity. Shame really as the A350 would offer them up a lot of flexibility on certain routes existing and new

goingnowhere · 18-08-2016 10:52am

Deleted User wrote: »

Absolutely no chance of 747's to EI only chance I see of 767's is running a shuttle to Heathrow.

If DUB-LHR is such a capacity issue why do BA regularly use A319's? If there was a capacity pinch it would be a whole lot easier for BA to start using 767's themselves

BA 767's are ugly, outdated and a major step down compared to even the old C reg A32x EI have

Cravens · 18-08-2016 1:05pm

I tell you what, my thoughts from the outset when someone mentioned that EI may need a small fleet of widebodies to cover short-haul were that they could pick up some A330-301's (ex-PR perhaps, and possibly EI-SHN (in her original colours to appeal to the retrojet crew)) for next to nothing and fly them for 5-10 years. Will need some capex for sure, but nowhere near as much as any ETOPS aircraft, and the OPEX will be marginally less that the rare-ish RR-powered B763..

All a bit pie in the sky, I know, but there are reductions in unit costs for the 330's vs the 767's in that there's some commonality with the long haul fleet and on top of that there is no need for pilots to learn a new type. Also that eliminates one more type of aircraft from the group, so the accountants would be fairly happy.

Tenger · 18-08-2016 1:18pm

billie1b wrote: »

Rumours around DUB also state this and that EI will be getting 3-4 747's from BA next year to replace the A350's they'll be taking from EI. I wouldn't read too much into it

Makes no sense at all. Even less sense than the rumour that EI were getting A340s. At least that quadjet had the same type rating for crew!

Im gonna bet someone saw the BA B744 in the other day and made the woeful assumption that it was a parking test for future operations under EI.

Why would EI exchange new deliveries for old ex-BA aircraft? IAG airlines are run as standalone companies. EI will make the decision that helps them the best, not act as a crutch for BA or IB.
As for a B767......why? Whats so wrong with multiple A320's offering a DUB-LHR shuttle service for business travellers?

The A333's coming soon are part of the long held EI 2006 plan. They were deferred 2-3 times, IAG added 2 extra frames. The next phase of that original order are the A350's, it still remains to be seen OFFICIALLY, what will happen with that order.

While I would like to see A350's, a switch to A330neo's is still growth. Which will eventually be replaced by A350s down the line.

billie1b · 18-08-2016 1:56pm

Tenger wrote: »

Makes no sense at all. Even less sense than the rumour that EI were getting A340s. At least that quadjet had the same type rating for crew!

Im gonna bet someone saw the BA B744 in the other day and made the woeful assumption that it was a parking test for future operations under EI.

Why would EI exchange new deliveries for old ex-BA aircraft? IAG airlines are run as standalone companies. EI will make the decision that helps them the best, not act as a crutch for BA or IB.
As for a B767......why? Whats so wrong with multiple A320's offering a DUB-LHR shuttle service for business travellers? There were rumours of trying an early morning A330 rotation, but getting a new type in the fleet purely for this one routes......sounds like a bad idea to me.

The A333's coming soon are part of the long held EI 2006 plan. They were deferred 2-3 times, IAG added 2 extra frames. The next phase of that original order are the A350's, it still remains to be seen OFFICIALLY, what will happen with that order.

While I would like to see A350's, a switch to A330neo's is still growth. Which will eventually be replaced by A350s down the line.

As I said I wouldn't read too much into it, but just to clarify, ive been hearing these rumours these past 4 weeks, twice from EI line engineers. But, as I said I didn't take much notice, I dont think we will ever see a 74 in EI colours again.

Marcusm · 18-08-2016 2:12pm

Like I've said before, can't see the 744s moving across to EI. IB are, I think, phasing out of reducing reliance on 340s so can't see those being used except if moved across group fleet management (when that is brought in) to provide an uplift in capacity when needed. As for 763s, I can see post integration of DUB-LHR routes, these being flown on some of the rotations to provide/release slots but in BA livery with a as crews. Eventually, like LHR-MAD, the routes will be mostly interchangeable.

Overtime, I think all IAG short haul will move to a single (likely Airbus) platform with minimal cabin differentiation. Likewise I see IB and EI sharing a long haul config with interchangeability of airframes whereas BA will maintain a distinctive product. If EI will not use 350s at maximum from the outset then of course the will go to IB or BA but EI has strong long haul growth and will not be starved of expansion capacity. It simply will be chrome taps not gold ones.

Tenger · 18-08-2016 3:08pm

Marcusm wrote: »

Overtime, I think all IAG short haul will move to a single (likely Airbus) platform with minimal cabin differentiation. Likewise I see IB and EI sharing a long haul config with interchangeability of airframes whereas BA will maintain a distinctive product.

IAG investor day last year already indicated this long term plan, same equipment config for A320's for all 3 airlines, IB and EI matching A330 config. This factor means cabin crew are familiar with aircraft from other IAG partner airlines.
Seating can be changed 'relatively' easily if required.
Investor presentation this November will provide more info.