Cheltenham Festival 2015

lemush

Gringo180 wrote: »

Cant see why you could say McCoy would be a negative on Jezki. He's a master pilot.

Absolutely no doubt in my mind and plenty of others than when it comes to Jezki Geraghty suits him much better and if McCoy rides him instead (which he will) then that is a negative.

Dr. Bre

for some reason despite jezki being beaten twice by hurricane I would still hve my money on jezki in march!

NaiveMelodies

Money back if second & third to UDS the 'big' PP special perhaps?

jimjamcos

I've backed the Pricewise selection Sgt Reckless ew @ 25/1 in Arkle. He won't get within 10l of the beast but I think he's a solid ew alternative. Had good form over hurdles last year behind Vautour, Josses Hill in England and Faugheen and Vaseur Lido at Punchestown. I know he's only had the one chase run but his jumping was more impressive that day than Henderson's horse has shown and he'll definitely appreciate better Spring ground.

Un De Sceaux: wins
Josses Hill: jumping will be found out if trying to go with UDS, which he'll have to at some stage in race.
Vautour: won't run, wins JLT
Vibrato Valtat: Some are saying that he's a reformed character, that breakneck pace set by UDS will suit him perfectly. Facts are though: his form, beating Three Kingdoms and Dunraven Storm is not that of an Arkle contender. Also, while it seems he's finishing his races better now, he's still 0/3 at Cheltenham and I refuse to believe he's not soft until I see him do it there.
Clarcam: solid, but getting weight from UDS at weekend, was an average effort. Vautour wasn't right at Christmas so thinking his Navan run us probably his true form.
Gilgamboa: 2m4 horse, won't run in race
Ptit Zig: ditto
Three Kingdoms: Based on struggle to beat Solar Impulse at the weekend he's not good enough/stayer.
Gods Own: Judging by trainers comments, will skip festival
Melodic Rendezvous: ditto
Dunraven Storm: Will probably line up and wouldn't discount him grabbing a place in a cut up field. Would much prefer him to Nicholls horse, at prices.
Court Minstral: Trainer in record as saying "we're not going near that aeroplane" lol

In my opinion, there'll only be around 7 lineup on the day - UDS, JH, Clarcam, VV, SR, Dunraven Storm and maybe another and at 25/1, Channons horse is a damn good bet to win the race in behind the beast.

paddyisreal

josses hill is a great each way bet. The master trainer will have him flying come march, he will have no problems with his jumping come cheltenham either . henderson record in the arkle is also a major plus, he knows what it takes to have top 2 mile chasers. i am not saying he is going to win but you can ignore henderson/geraghty at your peril come march.

wardiaz

Vibrato valtat is each was thievery UDS will go off 2/5 7 runners line up this fella is tailed on to get around and place if sam doesnt fall off it,fehily was on id have a huge cut at it.

jimjamcos

wardiaz wrote: »

Vibrato valtat is each was thievery UDS will go off 2/5 7 runners line up this fella is tailed on to get around and place if sam doesnt fall off it,fehily was on id have a huge cut at it.

Don't think Nicholls ever sends a horse out to place. Both VV and JH will be ridden to win IMO. There is no way they'll be able to go with UDS when he gets rolling and they'll be at it a long way out. Given he's sure to be ridden early, I wouldn't have a penny on VV finding enough for pressure to place

coopdog85

wardiaz wrote: »

Vibrato valtat is each was thievery UDS will go off 2/5 7 runners line up this fella is tailed on to get around and place if sam doesnt fall off it,fehily was on id have a huge cut at it.

Owners of the horse said Fehily will be the only jockey riding him from now on. Apparantly there was murder over the ride Sam gave him at Cheltenham in November.

wardiaz

coopdog85 wrote: »

Owners of the horse said Fehily will be the only jockey riding him from now on. Apparantly there was murder over the ride Sam gave him at Cheltenham in November.

Cheers for that,ran twice since winning a grade 1 and grade 2 and finding plenty for pressure soon as they jock him off.



STD single handidly ruined Saphir De Rheu's chase career too imo rode it twice decked it both times,schofield rides it once and it jumps like a buck wins half the track.

Hulk Hands

posturingpat wrote: »

You mean once he doesn't give the horse the most impeccable ride possible and give the horse every chance of winning? That Harchibald ride was beyond brilliance, noone else would've got him as close.

Why do people say this? There was nothing wrong with the ride in question, but because people are trying to prove a point that Carberry wasn't at fault, they act like it was some super human effort to even get him to second. The horse jumped and travelled himself into the race, Carberry did his usual great thing which was get the horse to settle and travel nicely. Nothing out of the ordinary, he's had 100s of extraordinary rides, even last week on wounded warrior.

It wasn't even impeccable either according to the man himself. Carberry said he was too close to the pace after two out and that he should have reigned the horse back earlier, just that he was jumping so well that he was reluctant to put the brakes on.

'Noone else would've got him close' is such hyperbolic nonsense. The horse proved many times before and after that he was easily in the top 3 in that field. I'm plenty sure Ruby or Barry could've got that horse to travel and jump also and have been able to nab second. Grand ride, nothing wrong with it but hardly 'complete brilliance'

famagusta

famagusta wrote: »

Just getting my Chelt ante post bets in order now, only looking at a few races so far. Will wait for NRNB for most bets.

Champion Chase - Looking at the market, with the two market leaders still not sighted this season, i decided to have a play on two old favourites of mine that are abit down the betting. I do hope SS and SDG run but if they don't my bets will be extra nice!!

2 pts win on Dodging bullets at 12/1 - Had a large bet in the Arkle last year on him and i think there has been a good bit of improvement this year mainly learning to settle better in his races.

1 Pt win Special Tiara 25/1 - Backed him in the CC last year too, the price is too good to ignore especially with his good run at kempton behind him. Could do anything.

Gathering up funds for the rest of my ante post but my principal bets will be;

Jezki EW in CH, can't see him out of the top three.

Still deciding on the RSA but i will be opposing Kings Palace all day, he flatters to deceive, same story as last year. The two Giggy mullins horses look very good, and i presume don poli will be the one to go in this.

And i am really looking forward to launching on No more heros in the Albert Bartlett, think he is a proper horse!!!!!

Time to beef up the ante post portfolio-

Very disappointed with No more heroes the other day, i knew he wasn't travelling turning down the back and he has scoped badly since. Still think he has a great chance so i'll back him now for the Albert Bartlett. Sick i missed the 14s available yesterday but i'll go 1 pt win now at 10/1.

Looking at the world hudle, Zarkandar is the horse i really like, mugged after idling by RDS the last day, great price for this, going to back him now because he'll be much shorter on the day, 1.5pts win at 9/1.

Had a good look at the gold cup last night, after crossing off the horses who wont run in it or that i think aren't good enough, i think the value may be with silviniaco conti at 7/2 with boyles, great article with Nicholls in the RP last sunday who said that he had stomach ulcers last spring which is all sorted now.

My dodging bullets bet above is looking good now!!

wardiaz

Cant understand why people fancy Zarkandar MOT smashed him last year if he shows up in any form like last he wins the WH,a big enough IF tbf but still.

lemush

wardiaz wrote: »

Cant understand why people fancy Zarkandar MOT smashed him last year if he shows up in any form like last he wins the WH,a big enough IF tbf but still.

You've answered your own question, because it's a big if that MOT turns up in the same form as last yr people are looking for alternatives. A two time course winner having a much easier first half to the season in comparison to last year with just one day in mind is a worthy rival. Not to mention the fact he was ridden with restraint last year due to doubts about the trip, them doubts are now gone. He will be a big player.

jimjamcos

famagusta wrote: »

Time to beef up the ante post portfolio-

Very disappointed with No more heroes the other day, i knew he wasn't travelling turning down the back and he has scoped badly since. Still think he has a great chance so i'll back him now for the Albert Bartlett. Sick i missed the 14s available yesterday but i'll go 1 pt win now at 10/1.

Looking at the world hudle, Zarkandar is the horse i really like, mugged after idling by RDS the last day, great price for this, going to back him now because he'll be much shorter on the day, 1.5pts win at 9/1.

Had a good look at the gold cup last night, after crossing off the horses who wont run in it or that i think aren't good enough, i think the value may be with silviniaco conti at 7/2 with boyles, great article with Nicholls in the RP last sunday who said that he had stomach ulcers last spring which is all sorted now.

My dodging bullets bet above is looking good now!!

Eddie O'Leary is quoted in today's Irish Times as saying NMH "scoped rotten" so think you can forgive the weekend run. I've also had two small win bets on World Hurdle today - Zarkander @ 9/1 and Beat That @ 12/1. Wasn't planning on backing them at this stage but as Pricewise has his pick in tomorrow's paper thought I may as well with NRNB. There's a gulf behind a peak form MOT but with doubts over him I think they represent the classiest of the remainder. Zarkander travelled all over RDS lto and may have the very suitable Ruby on board if Mullins has no runner. Beat Thats form of last season, particularly beating Don Poli at Leopardstown is very good form. He travelled supremely last time out too before blowing up. If MOT is back to his best he wins. If not I think my picks can pick up the pieces in a very open race

wardiaz

Not worried about Zarkandar getting chinned by Reve de sivola last time? I thought it was jockeys fault tbh he got bet not sure he will stay as stoutly as some of them in the race



Personally think MOT is going to be the gamble of the festival plenty of doubts before the day then it gets hammered in the ring imo and finds form with the application of money.

lemush

wardiaz wrote: »

Not worried about Zarkandar getting chinned by Reve de sivola last time? I thought it was jockeys fault tbh he got bet not sure he will stay as stoutly as some of them in the race



Personally think MOT is going to be the gamble of the festival plenty of doubts before the day then it gets hammered in the ring imo and finds form with the application of money.

Not worried about Ascot at all, agree that Sam should never have got involved in a battle with Reve that early. Being a 3mile winner at Auteuil I think he stays plenty well enough. Decent gallop on better ground I think he's a huge player. Agree regards MOT can see him being smashed but I was at Newbury for his comeback and he looked like a sick horse and the tongue tie was a worry. He has apparently had a wind op but I couldn't back him with fake money until he has a prep and if he doesn't I'll be eager to take him on.

Backstreet Moyes

I backed Saphir De Reu at 10/1 last week nrnb happy enough he will hopefully come on for the run.

Beat that is a horse that is also standing out unbeaten over 3 miles beating some decent horses.

mdwexford

Is Annie Power definitely going for the waste of time Mares and not the World Hurdle?

So cowardly if he's going the Quevega road with her as well.

lemush

mdwexford wrote: »

Is Annie Power definitely going for the waste of time Mares and not the World Hurdle?

So cowardly if he's going the Quevega road with her as well.

In his half term report appearance on RUK Ruby made reference to the world hurdle when talking about her. Make of that what you will.

wardiaz

Anyone think last years bottomed her? was laboured in punchestown after it now shes out 'injured'? wouldnt be the first horse to be ruined in that slog.

lemush

She tended to lug right that day and is no doubt better going left handed, she still hacked up though from a good yardstick in Jennies Jewel. Ground was decent too that day far from a slog. She's only had 12 career starts, plenty more to come.

wardiaz

lemush wrote: »

She tended to lug right that day and is no doubt better going left handed, she still hacked up though from a good yardstick in Jennies Jewel. Ground was decent too that day far from a slog. She's only had 12 career starts, plenty more to come.

Yeah true im just slightly worried it took the edge of her hopefully im wrong I notice a lot of people are keen to oppose her in the mares hurdle this year I personally think shes a 1/5 shot if she shows up against them scrubbers want to be on drugs laying her,in saying that she is a mare after all so I wont be investing until its nrnb.

lemush

wardiaz wrote: »

Yeah true im just slightly worried it took the edge of her hopefully im wrong I notice a lot of people are keen to oppose her in the mares hurdle this year I personally think shes a 1/5 shot if she shows up against them scrubbers want to be on drugs laying her,in saying that she is a mare after all so I wont be investing until its nrnb.

Ruby said she's back in full work so that's positive but I think it all points to the Mares mainly for the fact I couldn't see Mullins putting her in the WH without a prep and she could turn up 75% and win the Mares. With 6 weeks to the festival now a prep is looking unlikely. Mullins also has Pont Alexandre back in full work so that could be his WH horse.

wardiaz

lemush wrote: »

Ruby said she's back in full work so that's positive but I think it all points to the Mares mainly for the fact I couldn't see Mullins putting her in the WH without a prep and she could turn up 75% and win the Mares. With 6 weeks to the festival now a prep is looking unlikely. Mullins also has Pont Alexandre back in full work so that could be his WH horse.

Yeah PA got an entry for it so chasing this season if off the table anyways,I remember Mullins bringing fiveforthree back from a huge absence to run very well in Cheltenham so it could be done it all hinges on More of that tbh,I think hes a serious freak to give AP weight and a beating if hes right he wins,id sooner back Pont than the likes of monksland ect.

famagusta

Who did pricewise put up as his WH tip today?

Gavin "shels"

famagusta wrote: »

Who did pricewise put up as his WH tip today?

Saphir Du Rheu. Gone in from 9s since.

Backstreet Moyes

Gavin shels wrote: »

Saphir Du Rheu. Gone in from 9s since.

Where was he 9/1 i got him at 10/1 last week and after the Cleeve he was generally 6/1 everywhere.

Just seen Ladbokes for 10 minutes this morning made him 9/1 i presume so pricewise can say advised at 9/1.

skippymac6

I backed Jetson at 25/1 this morning on Ladbrokes. Think that's a great price. he is 16/1 with B365 and 14/1 with Boyles and Paddys.

He has ok course form, he came 5th in last years Pertemps final which Fingal Bay and Southfield Theatre fought out and the previous year he finished 3rd behind Holywell again at the festival.

He has two very good seconds behind Lieutenant Colonel this year and obviously a great run ahead of Quevaga in Punchestown at the festival.

It's his only festival target and it's non runner no bet with Lads so I think it's a cracking bet anyway.

jimjamcos

Nuts102 wrote: »

Where was he 9/1 i got him at 10/1 last week and after the Cleeve he was generally 6/1 everywhere.

Just seen Ladbokes for 10 minutes this morning made him 9/1 i presume so pricewise can say advised at 9/1.

Joke. He's just a promotional tool for Ladcrookes at this stage. Filling their book with false prices must be the RP aim

Gringo180

More of That is my banker of the festival. 7/2 is an absolute steal.