FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

numilus cimbus

From an East Coast imby perspective,I'm not liking these charts with all their north westerlies
Not great for Dublin to Waterford or anywhere in between

JCX BXC

numilus cimbus wrote: »

From an East Coast imby perspective,I'm not liking these charts with all their north westerlies
Not great for Dublin to Waterford or anywhere in between

From a Clare perspective, I am extremely happy at these charts as we have gotten no/little snow in the previous years, where as Dublin has been repeatedly snowed until it almost shut down.

icesnowfrost

gem is a beauty. gfs p not as good but still nice.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8908/gem-0-204_kim1.png
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9920/gfs-0-168_xot3.png

maquiladora

0Z GFS P

Can't imagine what that would be like up in Scotland. 140 km/h gusts with heavy snow....

numilus cimbus

Aye but for Ireland again,no snowmageddon in those charts
Coastal areas eg Galway City would see a sleety mix in showers at best and probably very little precip at all in Dublin,though snow there with the wind off the land
Again a disappointing watery typical Atlantic effort there

No real consensus yet on what's happening post Xmas though

ninebeanrows

Holy guacamole

maquiladora

The low is even more intense on the 06Z GFS P.





Very interesting....but still massive uncertainty and a much more watered down version is very possible.

maquiladora

Just a slight breeze...

Elmer Blooker

Not bad! The first hint of pressure building over Scandinavia I've seen this winter?

Cantonesque

Reminder Alert... Take down Outdoor Christmas lights on the 27th 💨💨💨

icesnowfrost

my god thats windy and cold

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9571/gfs-0-156_gke4.png

maquiladora

Cantonesque wrote: »

Reminder Alert... Take down Outdoor Christmas lights on the 27th 💨💨💨

Low probability that will actually happen I think. Very uncertain still, but should have a much better idea in a day or two.

ninebeanrows

Delay it by 12 hours please. Thanks.

numilus cimbus

Not looking for high pressure over Scandinavia at all,Europe is way too warm
Low pressure over Scandinavia please to drag super cold air down into Europe and us please

A Scandinavia high now would be wasted and would probably deliver mostly dry weather here with a few nuisance light rain showers off the Irish Sea

numilus cimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

Low probability that will actually happen I think. Very uncertain still, but should have a much better idea in a day or two.

indeed but by then we'll probably be saying 8days after that is very uncertain and around and around in a ring we continue

maquiladora

numilus cimbus wrote: »

indeed but by then we'll probably be saying 8days after that is very uncertain and around and around in a ring we continue

I'm just talking in terms of the potential winter storm on the 27/28. In 8 days it'll be over one way or the other.

sean555

Both 12z gfs op and gfs p runs show cold and snow for 27th/28th with parallel run being the colder and snowier for the country as a whole.
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7040/gfs-1-162_jpz9.png
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1736/gfs-2-150_xoz4.png

Iancar29

GFS (P) moves the storms potential away from ireland but still bring down the cold northerly from it. Still lots of modification possible but some good snow potential for the northern half of the country if this was to hold.

maquiladora

The difference between the 12Z GFS and 12Z GFS P at 144 show the continuing degree of uncertainty with what happens with that low.




Both show cold air and snow showers in places in the wake of the low for a time.





We'll see what the ECM shows later.

ninebeanrows

And then the UKM

maquiladora

12Z ECM completely different to GFS/GFS P/UKMO at 144 hours....

numilus cimbus

The smart money is on the ECM being right,but then I remember one commonly referred to on NW as that ECM which about 2 years ago had us in roaring icy easterlies and used by Evelyn at the time that totally reversed so round and around the mulberry bush we go

maquiladora

ECM is a complex/messy large area of low pressure with multiple centres of circulation/frontal depressions and it's hard to follow exactly whats going on in 24 hour intervals but there could be some severe winds at times, but the nature of the setup would prevent cold air being tapped into at this timeframe.

It's a very different solution to the other models though. Maybe just as likely to be right or wrong, who knows...

Strangegravy

At the moment, small, subtle differences between the 96hrs - 120hrs charts on the GFS(P), ECM and UKMO, are making a massive difference to whether we get a few days of decent snowy weather at 144hrs - 168hrs or similar mucky stuff to what we've been getting.

Could still go either way, fascinating stuff really, especially as it's over the Christmas period...

Oneiric 3

ECMWF 12z at 240hrs. A faint hope for some storminess as we head into the new year?



Primary troughing in the northwest Atlantic doesn't look especially vigorous at this time but maybe, just maybe it may help trigger off some nice secondary waves as time wears on?

maquiladora

All change again on the 18Z GFS and GFS P with that low.

18Z GFS is stormy for northern parts but with less of a follow-on snow risk.




18Z GFS develops the low differently, less stormy but leading to colder air and snow.

icesnowfrost

gfs-p 162hr 12z run -8 uppers
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7694/gfs-1-162_kxf6.png

gfs-p 162hr 18z run -8 uppers
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3124/gfs-1-162_cak9.png

not to bad

maquiladora

Just for fun.

Windchill tonight around +8



Windchill next weekend -8

JanuarySnowstor

Hi everybody

Well the Christmas run in has begun and plenty of interest in the charts most particularly for next weekend. The charts don't have a clue jumping from severe cold to record warmth.
Something has got to give soon as to the correct way forward.

For what's it's worth I am very convinced that the models are under estimating height rises in the Greenland region and subsequent cold.

My gut tells me there'll be a massive swing to deep cold tomorrow morning and we are on the cusp of something special

As for a white Christmas who cares if Arctic air comes south 3 days later. After all Christmas is far more than just one day and should really be taken as the week up to new year

Later. ...

maquiladora

Looking at the ensembles, the 18Z GFS P was a bit of a cold outlier on the 27th. Sorry guys, but I wouldn't have high hopes about that re-appearing on the next run, so don't get your hopes up. :P