FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

Lucreto

I hate this thread. All the hype in this thread over the past few years and being shot down each time.

This year is going to be especially bad I think.

Rikand

arctictree wrote: »

Is mid November a bit early for an eastery to deliver? I would think that the continent is nowhere as cold as it would be in Jan/Feb.

A lot of the recent images show all that coming in from Norway and Sweden and we all know what happened the last time snow came in from that way around the 20th of November

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_2010%E2%80%9311_in_Great_Britain_and_Ireland#22.E2.80.9324_November

elecktras weather bomb

Lucreto wrote: »

I hate this thread. All the hype in this thread over the past few years and being shot down each time.

This year is going to be especially bad I think.

my rationale is telling me your right but lord knows us starved of snow or just even seasonal weather deserve some sort of break after the mild mush last year. is it possible? I don't know heard of same case scenario 2012 and Ecm may have bias for raising heights. I imagine it shall be total lunacy in here if all the other models come into agreement . but hand on heart we are usually wrong side of the equation or get the watered down version. but hey on a whim I reckon you will have a ramp yet !even if it tis only one decent snow day this year. cheers

snowstorm445

GFS 18z coming up now. Get your F5s ready...

howlinwolf

was wondering , having looked at the charts over the last few days , albeit through confused eyes , are the charts in any way consistent with the breakup of the pv over the artic or is every run/day different as in where the cold is getting pushed and by how much....seems from my very limited knowledge the charts are agreeing that there is a pv split happening but it seems very random and disorganised on every run

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

was wondering , having looked at the charts over the last few days , albeit through confused eyes , are the charts in any way consistent with the breakup of the pv over the artic or is every run/day different as in where the cold is getting pushed and by how much....seems from my very limited knowledge the charts are agreeing that there is a pv split happening but it seems very random and disorganised on every run

Some degree of vortex disruption looks to be very likely now. What we don't know is where the colder air will spread to in the mid-latitudes following the disruption and how long until the vortex reorganizes.

pad199207

12z GFS seems to push better Heights towards Greenland. Looks better then the ECM on some days

This new GFS Parallel doesnt seem to have a clue . So inconsistent!

UKMO is the last one now to come onboard. Or will it be right and stab us all in the back?

BLIZZARD7

pad199207 wrote: »

12z GFS seems to push better Heights towards Greenland. Looks better then the ECM on some days

This new GFS Parallel doesnt seem to have a clue . So inconsistent!

UKMO is the last one now to come onboard. Or will it be right and stab us all in the back?

Il take that- UKMO day 6









Dan

maquiladora

To be honest, I really wouldn't be getting too excited about anything yet. I have a feeling we'll end up with a fairly short lived period of blocking with the cold air locked away to our northeast.

Just a gut feeling, it's too early to know. But at least it's a bit of FI fun anyway.

I think things will be more interesting when we get into December, hopefully after some good strat warmings.

Nabber

Ice/Snow Cover 2010


Ice/Snow Cover 2013


Ice/Snow Cover 2014



Ice has already moved in on Svalbard. Given our location, our warm sea and the necessicty for so many ingredients to be correct for snow. I think we need to first look at the cold pool to the East. We need to build up on that so that any block that forms in the Atlantic can allow cold air to filter in rapidly. If we need the block to last 4+ days, then we are talking rare occasions and clutching at straws.
FI is nice on the eyes, but this early on in Ireland, keep dreaming

For blizzards in Ireland, not only do we need the planets to be inline, we also need their moons to be inline

BLIZZARD7

While it doesent lead to much on this run, its nice to see a fully split vortex at day 5.







Dan

ninebeanrows

Typhoon Nuri and that record deep Barents Sea storm may force too much energy and prevent that nice cross polar block that was being progged a few days ago.

Only the 10th of November, so we have plenty of time for something to develop and the PV doesn't look too well organised as of yet.

maquiladora

12Z ECM sending -12 uppers into...Texas.

Iancar29

I like the look of the GEM , yes its the GEM but sure why not let it have a shot at things ha.

Cold pool feeding into Scandinavia and pressure building over Greenland where i would like to see it setting up shop there to give a better chance of an easterly feed then a few days later for us.


Some of the GFS ensembles showing similar with the vortex sliced right through.





:cool:

ninebeanrows

ECMWF edging away from that cross polar ridge

Elmer Blooker

Grotesque! Shocking!

leahyl

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Grotesque! Shocking!

Can you explain this chart Elmer Brooker?!

RobertKK

leahyl wrote: »

Can you explain this chart Elmer Brooker?!

My own explanation is save and retire to Spain or Portugal as the Atlantic looks to be in charge for North west Europe, which is normal fair and the weather in Iberia looks decent...normal fair too.

ltdslipdiff

Please can someone post some FI eye candy? I hate seeing this thread so quiet!

maquiladora

ltdslipdiff wrote: »

Please can someone post some FI eye candy? I hate seeing this thread so quiet!

elecktras weather bomb

I wish I could post charts so il wait patiently for some tasty ones off latest ECM..........cause something is definitely afoot.

Darwin

Yes ECM @ 240 hours starting to look very interesting with heights migrating towards Greenland leaving us a North Easterly flow.

icesnowfrost

Darwin wrote: »

Yes ECM @ 240 hours starting to look very interesting with heights migrating towards Greenland leaving us a North Easterly flow.

Im Drooling!!!!!!

arctictree

Latest charts showing a flip back to the continental flow that was showing a few days ago. Would be a welcome change from all the rain.

xXxkorixXx

Darwin wrote: »

Yes ECM @ 240 hours starting to look very interesting with heights migrating towards Greenland leaving us a North Easterly flow.

When will this happen though?

kittyn

xXxkorixXx wrote: »

When will this happen though?

It may never happen ..... This is the FI thread remember 😊

maquiladora

Definitely a shift towards a more blocked Atlantic on the models today. High pressure dominating over and around us, and in the case of the new GFS, really dominating.

If this happened during the summer we'd be talking about a heatwave! :cool:

maquiladora

18Z GFS...

Pub run alert. :P It's that time of year again...

Reckless Abandonment

Looks chilly..

maquiladora

18Z GFS parallel heading into fun territory in FI too.