Very strong winds developing south, east; storm watch late Tuesday

Cogsy88

30-50mm. Probably closer to 50mm in Munster I would think. Check MT,s forecast.

maquiladora

Spindle wrote: »

What sort of rainfall levels can be expected with the Tuesday System?

Not sure what the levels of water are like at the Inniscarra dam, would be a double wammy if they had to leave more water out and with East'ly winds driving water up the river Lee from harbor, combined with high tide would make for a bad situation.

For the next 72 hours :



The Met Eireann forecast for Wednesday mentions the risk of "severe flooding", wording that they rarely use. So perhaps a chance of flash flooding from intense downpours in places.

The showers will tend to merge to longer spells of rain by the middle of the day with the risk of very heavy rain in thundery downpours. Severe flooding may occur.

And then more heavy rain on the way for the weekend...

ninebeanrows

Saturday remains another interest, with a deep low around our shores.

Spindle

maquiladora wrote: »

The Met Eireann forecast for Wednesday mentions the risk of "severe flooding", wording that they rarely use. So perhaps a chance of flash flooding from intense downpours in places.

The amount of rain that has fallen within the Lee catchment area has been high enough over the last few days, so hopefully the Dam can take it otherwise it, could be a bad event if they have to increase the output from the Dam. SE winds always bring the worse tidal flooding in Cork, pushing water right back up both channels.

Steopo

maquiladora wrote: »

Peak winds on the south coast should be around 6am.

Isle of Man is under red tidal flood warnings for tomorrow.



http://www.gov.im/transport/floodwatch/

Looks like the Isle of Man survived but lots of flooding problems there too at high tide & still some very heavy rain in the Irish Sea

https://mobile.twitter.com/iompolice/tweets

SpaceTime

Hopefully they're emptying the dam during low tide.

relaxed

Judah Mammoth Ritual wrote: »

Gulp! http://www.athlone.ie/council-notices/update-on-river-shannon-water-levels-issued-by-athlone-town-council-on-monday-3rd-february

The ESB are keeping all the gates open to ease pressure on Athlone and upstream areas but at same time adding more water into the Limerick area, a balancing act it seems!

maquiladora

According the news, a 1 meter tidal swell is forecast for high tide in Cork tomorrow evening.

ninebeanrows

Looks like the east and southeast is going to take fairly prolonged hammering tomorrow with heavy rain and high winds.

First strong pulse of winds tomorrow evening then a brief tone down before another tightening of the gradient Wednesday morning.

Gusts to 110 km/hr are likely perhaps more in the exposed southeastern coasts.

sunbabe08

have an assignment due in wednesday. it could be an adventure getting into college.

vistafinder

Just saw a video clip on the news of a fella swiming up Oliver Plunkett street this morning in Cork.

leahyl

Gerry Murphy was just on Six One there so it must be serious flooding coming our way!

sunbabe08

leahyl wrote: »

Gerry Murphy was just on Six One there so it must be serious flooding coming our way!

eeek we're screwed.

M.T. Cranium

Just a heads up, at some point this evening either this thread will get a new title, or it will be locked and readers redirected to a new Tuesday to Saturday discussion room. Maq, I just sent a message requesting the change but it may be a while before we see the new thread (title).

I feel that level 2 is still appropriate although the incoming storm has a bit of a localized level 3 potential for south coast, much depends on whether the lunar tidal reduction overcomes the atmospheric upgrade relative to Monday morning. It might be more or less a cancelling out of these two factors with similar results, but I could visualize it going either side of that. Obviously a higher storm surge would be a major problem.

Saturday, we can cross that bridge if it's still standing. That one has northerly track shift potential so it's more or less an academic point to say that the south is presently once again more at risk of strong winds and fortunately by then the lunar tides should be at their monthly minimum so this might reduce the storm surge potential this time more on the west coast again.

Macy0161

leahyl wrote: »

Gerry Murphy was just on Six One there so it must be serious flooding coming our way!

Its not serious until they bring out The Eagle.

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

Red Nissan

maquiladora wrote: »

According the news, a 1 meter tidal swell is forecast for high tide in Cork tomorrow evening.

So we see a half meter drop due to natural lowering tides to an expected 3.8m from 4m this morning and add back tidal swell so we see a 4.5m tide, given the longevity of this storm, this may well release maximum potential.

pad199207

Fred Swanson wrote: »

The Eagle does not do TV anymore.

He was busy with TV3 today

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

ninebeanrows

There is still no official Met warning for tomorrow, this surprises me as the charts seem all to agree on the liklyhood of gusts in excess of 100km/hr which is the threshold and in a region not really used to high winds from this direction.

Mr Cumulonimbus

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Saturday, we can cross that bridge if it's still standing.

GEFS perturbation 4 for Saturday morning, would make a good attempt at demolishing what's left. Of course there's 5 days to go, but quite a few of the other scenarios look unpleasant too at this stage.

kub

Ok I have been reading posts here for a while and infairness you guys know your stuff.

I was listening to a presenter on a Cork radio station this morning who said that he felt that as the Cork harbour Commissioners dregger had not been clearing out the river/ harbour for a while, that he felt they may be partially to blame for the floods.

I thought may be not, what say ye?

simply simple

Is Dublin going to escape this whole event tomorrow and the whole week?

Red Nissan

kub wrote: »

Ok I have been reading posts here for a while and infairness you guys know your stuff.

I was listening to a presenter on a Cork radio station this morning who said that he felt that as the Cork harbour Commissioners dredger had not been clearing out the river/ harbour for a while, that he felt they may be partially to blame for the floods.

I thought may be not, what say ye?

Absolute load of rubbish. Full Stop. Ask on the marine forum and they will show you pictures of state of the art dredgers that look like space ships that hoover up silt and leave in a few minutes and they have been regular visitors to Cork waters.

I meant to email myself but then, who was it? [I know, he should stick to Sunday mornings and give Mawe and Tallon a day off].

goat2

how are kerry, clare and galway fare in tomorrow nights event,

maquiladora

Latest EURO4 shows winds fairly similar to early this morning for the south and and easts tomorrow evening/night, perhaps a bit stronger at times on the south coast and on the east coast the direction is more towards shore than this morning so could feel a bit stronger there.

The main story though will be the risk of further coastal flooding on the south coast tomorrow evening and possibily on the east coast early Wednesday morning. So be aware of high tides and any warnings from your local council.

M.T. Cranium

goat2 wrote: »

how are kerry, clare and galway fare in tomorrow nights event,

Based on model consensus, would suggest that you may see a burst of stronger winds late afternoon, then experience the near calm of the eye of this particular storm (one model, GEM, keeps the track a bit further west and that would keep you in the stronger winds), followed by a moderate or briefly strong blast from the west on Wednesday as the storm in a weaker condition moves away from Ireland.

The more continuous strong winds would be felt around Waterford, Wexford and Wicklow, inland southeast. Dublin might also have a brief period of strong winds and some later intervals of near calm if the eye tracks over Dublin on its way northeast.

We will have a better handle on track issues by tomorrow morning. This storm is currently shown as a rapidly deepening 975 mb low near 47N 33W (extrapolation to 20z from 18z position and reported central pressure 979 mb).

This is a much broader system than the Monday morning event and will create a longer interval of strong winds. We can only hope that things stay within reasonable limits on both this one and the Saturday event.

Martin_D

mickger844posts wrote: »

I've never seen it flood there before. The wind has been non stop here since yesterday evening. The rain looks like clearing in the next hour or so. Round two tomorrow night.

Ya must be a young lad - regularly flooded up to about 15 yrs ago - not sure what sorted it but there has been so much development, piping of streams etc it must have been a benefit until this event. The final part of the flood relief works might do the trick but saying that how did the Quay flood today given the major barriers erected in recent years - this was its first big test.

JanuarySnowstor

Red Nissan wrote: »

Absolute load of rubbish. Full Stop. Ask on the marine forum and they will show you pictures of state of the art dredgers that look like space ships that hoover up silt and leave in a few minutes and they have been regular visitors to Cork waters.

I meant to email myself but then, who was it? [I know, he should stick to Sunday mornings and give Mawe and Tallon a day off].

Maybe your right but I pass the quay in cork more than once a day and I haven't seen them dredging for a long time.
As for space ship look alike boats on cork harbour - they must be out at night!

ninebeanrows

Met Eireann have launched yet another Orange Weather Warning this evening.

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Another Atlantic storm depression will approach Ireland later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Southeast to east winds of mean speeds 65 to 80km/h., will gust 90 to 115 km/h., at times, along southern and eastern coasts. Large waves, high tides and low pressure values are likely to lead to some coastal flooding. Heavy rain or showers are also expected and with the water table so high, some river flooding is likely too.
Issued:
Monday 03 February 2014 21:00
Valid:
Tuesday 04 February 2014 15:00 to Wednesday 05 February 2014 09:00