Very strong winds developing south, east; storm watch late Tuesday

patneve2

Tomorrow's low will probably see wind speeds 10-15 km/hr higher than today so gusts of 120/125 kmh might be possible in coastal areas of the south and east.

maquiladora

It's deja vu all over again.

mickger844posts

Martin_D wrote: »

Ya must be a young lad - regularly flooded up to about 15 yrs ago - not sure what sorted it but there has been so much development, piping of streams etc it must have been a benefit until this event. The final part of the flood relief works might do the trick but saying that how did the Quay flood today given the major barriers erected in recent years - this was its first big test.

Wish i was a young lad The memory is not as good as it used be.

pharmaton

slightly ot but I know there's plenty of pics of local flooding to be had, just thought it was interesting to witness the new flood defence barriers in action in Waterford on my way to school earlier. It's the second time in a month I've seen the water this high along waterside. I remember when it was a regular disaster zone at spring tides in the past, but it gives a good idea of the volume of water passing through

Red Nissan

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Maybe your right but I pass the quay in cork more than once a day and I haven't seen them dredging for a long time.

Going OT for here for a minute, describe dredging please, what you expect to actually see. Thanks.

Aimsir

Met Éireann has issued the following Severe Weather Alert for the Cork area.

Weather Warning : Code Level Orange

Another Atlantic storm depression will approach Ireland later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Southeast to east winds of mean speeds 65 to 80km/h., will gust 95 to 115 km/h., at times, along southern and eastern coasts. Large waves, high tides and low pressure values are likely to lead to some coastal flooding. Heavy rain or showers are also expected and with the water table so high, some river flooding is likely too.

Valid from 15:01 Tuesday 4-February-2014 until 09:00 Wednesday 5-February-2014

Oscar Bravo

Its also for the Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Kerry and Waterford areas!!

maquiladora

So after tomorrow's heavy rain, and Wednesday's heavy showers....another large band of heavy rain on Friday night.



River flooding is going to be a growing problem for some areas in the coming days.

Baby75

how will Carlow fair out in tomorrow event

Steopo

Red Nissan wrote: »

Going OT for here for a minute, describe dredging please, what you expect to actually see. Thanks.

I know it's not what you're asking but useful article from BBC on stopping flooding
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25929644

Maybe one for the postmortems, back to the current situation ...

Might be clutching at straws but it does seem Cork is right in the eye of the storm at highest tide on Wed morning so winds may not be as bad at that time??. So the good news for Cork at high tide is half metre lower tide v today, maybe in eye of storm but the bad news is sea swell (which wasn't there this morning), heavy rain preceding & the already serious swollen state of the rivers

vickers209

Estofex level 1 just on south coast




Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 04 Feb 2014 06:00 to Wed 05 Feb 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 03 Feb 2014 21:36
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for S-Ireland, SW UK and the offshore areas mainly for severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

... Ireland and UK ...

06Z until noon:

A pronounced mid-level thermal trough with readings well below -30°C at 500 hPa crosses UK from SW to NE. Rather steep mid-layer lapse rates atop modest BL moisture offer some SBCAPE of 500 J/kg offshore and up to 300 J/kg onshore. Latest IR image (20Z) has an area with active convection west of Ireland and UK including spotty lightning activity. This will affect mainly the coastal areas of W/SW UK, before waning onshore. Sleet and gusty winds will be the main hazard, although an isolated funnel event can't be ruled out with some LLCAPE forecast. Beyond noon, WAA of the intense marine cyclone should induce a shutdown of any ongoing convection.

00Z-06Z including NW France:

The occluded cyclone comes closer to Ireland and UK. With cooling mid-levels, offshore convection should increase in coverage and intensity over the Bay of Biscay, the W-English Channel and just south of Ireland. Sleet and severe wind gusts will be the main hazard with 850 hPa winds aoa 25 m/s. Intense gradient flow along the back-bent occlusion features 850 hPa winds of 40 m/s, but very slim DMC probabilities exist. Severe to damaging winds start to affect SW UK during the end of the forecast, but current indications show little to no input of convection to the final wind magnitude. A broad level 1 area was issued for the wind gust risk with marine and onshore moving thunderstorm activity. However right now, no organized severe risk (e.g. forced line of DMC) is anticipated with this event.

maquiladora

Steopo wrote: »

Might be clutching at straws but it does seem Cork is right in the eye of the storm at highest tide on Wed morning so winds may not be as bad at that time??. So the good news for Cork at high tide is half metre lower tide v today, maybe in eye of storm but the bad news is sea swell (which wasn't there this morning), heavy rain preceding & the already serious swollen state of the rivers

According to the report on the news Cork City Council are expected an unusually large 1m tidal swell at high tide tomorrrow evening, that will be the one that carries the greatest risk of flooding rather than on Wednesday morning.

M.T. Cranium

Baby75 wrote: »

how will Carlow fair out in tomorrow event

Very windy in any places exposed to the south, southeast or east ... widespread spot flooding likely from heavy rainfalls.

Baby75

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Very windy in any places exposed to the south, southeast or east ... widespread spot flooding likely from heavy rainfalls.

say

Thank you

Steopo

maquiladora wrote: »

According to the report on the news Cork City Council are expected an unusually large 1m tidal swell at high tide tomorrrow evening, that will be the one that carries the greatest risk of flooding rather than on Wednesday morning.

You're right given the other factors of strong winds & heavy rain at high tide tomorrow night looks the bigger risk although does look like to me the biggest swell mightn't arrive till just after high tide (assuming magic seaweed site is accurate, I'm dubious as it does seem to over forecast wave heights)

http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-Surf-Chart/1/

BTW - does anyone know why with these spring tides every second tide is much lower in Dublin but this isn't the case in Cork?

Oscar Bravo

A 2300 update from Met

Cold overnight with clear spells and scattered rain or hail showers. Frost will develop in many places and ice will form on untreated surfaces, especially later in the night. Some fog patches are likely in the midlands also. Lowest temperatures -1 to +3 C.


Tomorrow

Frost, fog and ice will clear early in the morning, then it will be mainly dry for a time, with sunny spells in places. But extremely windy and very wet weather will sweep up from the south during the afternoon and evening, giving flooding in places. Gale force and very blustery southeast to east winds will develop over Munster and Leinster and will extend to all areas early Tuesday night. Cool, top temperatures 6 to 9 C.

Outlook

Wednesday: The heavy overnight rain will clear from the east coast soon after dawn, but then heavy showers will break out across the country during the morning and afternoon. The showers will tend to merge to longer spells of rain by the middle of the day with the risk of very heavy rain in thundery downpours. Severe flooding may occur. Then towards evening the showers will become more isolated but it will get windy and blustery, the wind direction being westerly.

Thursday: Thursday will be a much brighter day with showers frequent over the western half of the country, but the showers staying well scattered on the eastern side. Highest temperatures will be around 6 or 7 degrees. Thursday night will be clear, but it will be cold and frosty as air temperatures fall to freezing.

Friday: It will be a bright and frosty start to the day. The morning will be generally sunny and dry, but in the afternoon cloud will increase and rain will reach the southwest by the end of the afternoon. During the evening and night the heavy rain extends to all parts of the country.

Saturday: A very showery day, with the showers again merging to longer spells of rain and occasional heavy thundery downpours. Flooding is again likely to occur.

Sunday: The showers on Sunday will be mostly confined to the western half of the country and the eastern side of Ireland will be much drier and brighter.

M.T. Cranium

This is a very strong appearing low that makes a northeast turn just before reaching Ireland and reaches its lowest pressure just before expected landfall (which would be near the Shannon estuary). For those reasons, I am going to start a new thread now with level 2 status but a level 3 disclaimer in the title.

I hope a mod can lock this thread soon and direct traffic over to the new thread.

maquiladora

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This is a very strong appearing low that makes a northeast turn just before reaching Ireland and reaches its lowest pressure just before expected landfall (which would be near the Shannon estuary). For those reasons, I am going to start a new thread now with level 2 status but a level 3 disclaimer in the title.

I hope a mod can lock this thread soon and direct traffic over to the new thread.

I suggested this thread be locked earlier today but I didn't start a new one since this stayed open, so I'll let you start this one. :pac:

M.T. Cranium

Please utilize the new thread:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=88822589#post88822589

M.T. Cranium

maquiladora wrote: »

I suggested this thread be locked earlier today but I didn't start a new one since this stayed open, so I'll let you start this one. :pac:

Yep, unfortunately our hard-working mods have lives off-forum too, and have not caught up with our requests for a thread change, but I will be proactive given the risks ahead and get a more timely wording into a thread title for now, mods can decide whether to merge or lock. This thread is likely to pick up some further traffic but would ask that folks go over to the new location to discuss Tuesday evening potential.

The low is racing east now, I've noticed that it has exceeded the pace of most recent Atlantic lows and is gaining over one degree longitude an hour eastward as well as losing over one millibar per hour in central pressure. This one has a lot of angular momentum to unleash on the south coast and could do even more than we expect. Should at least have numerous ship reports on approach although the K1 buoy is kaput like so many others seem to be -- I hope the UK or France or Ireland think of sending out a naval vessel to give us some reports around 06z and 12z from 50N 18W or thereabouts. I think that has happened in the past.