Very strong winds developing south, east; storm watch late Tuesday

M.T. Cranium

There was a thread open until a day ago, extending the discussion of the Monday storm into the prospects for a severe storm late Friday 31st into Saturday 1st February.

This new thread will continue that discussion on the basis of model data this morning, showing the potential for wind gusts reaching 130 km/hr on the west coast, and a very high potential for coastal flooding especially around Galway Bay but more generally on the west and even south coasts, due to the strongest winds overlapping some of the month's highest astronomical tides due to the new moon (30th) at perigee. Rainfalls of 15-30 mm appear likely with some risk of thunder and hail, from mid-day Friday to late Saturday.

At this early stage, I have selected level 2 although conditions look fairly close to level 1 for the inland and eastern thirds of the country, and could reach level 3 locally on the west coast. Level 2 will apply to counties from Waterford around the west coast to north Ulster.

This post will be edited after all model runs are completed, but the earlier guidance was quite consistent with a storm maximum around 0600h Saturday with the low centre approaching from the west then moving more northeast after reaching Donegal Bay. Some ensemble members of the GFS model were showing extreme conditions and the general consensus of all models would suggest maximum gusts of 130 km/hr in exposed locations and 110 km/hr fairly widespread. The only updated guidance so far (0320h) is the 48h RGEM which shows a 960 mb low approaching Ireland on Friday at 00z. Further updates will come in soon from the GFS, GME and UK models, and around 0615h from the ECM. This post will be edited from the data shown in those model runs.

UPDATE 1 _ The 00z GME shows an extreme storm event with a 940 mb low approaching coastal Donegal Bay by late Friday. If this model has support from the bigger models after two consecutive runs I would upgrade the warning to Level 3. It would warrant a high state of alert for the west coast Friday night.

UPDATE 2 _ The 00z GFS is only slightly less extreme with the low at about 940 mb mid-day Friday filling to 950 mb before landfall (the track is across north-central Ireland then into the Irish Sea). This model would suggest peak gusts of about 115 km/hr but very similar impacts from high tides and waves/swells. Maximum level 2 status is more appropriate to this model. Some perturbations are bound to be stronger.

UPDATE 3 _ The 00z UKMO appears a touch further north but is about the same intensity as the GFS. Timing on all three models is very similar for maximum gusts to hit around 0300-0900h Saturday.

UPDATE 4 _ The 00z GEM is fairly similar to the GFS and holds back the full power of the storm until after midnight Friday then unleashes it just as central pressures are filling. It would only require a slight tweak in this model to get to the GME more intense solution.

FINAL UPDATE _ The 00z ECM follows the same general scenario and now we await more reliable guidance from model runs later today realizing that the system will not actually be forming (out of remnants of a storm system off the southeast coast of the U.S.) until some time later tonight or Thursday morning.

ninebeanrows

Trend this morning is to slide this low further south than in recent runs.

And it is likely the storm will have past peak intensity when it hits.

Interesting few days ahead.

Redsunset

Post deleted.
If you have nothing of value to add to the thread then don't bother posting.
It can be deemed as trolling and action will be taken against you.

maquiladora

The current primary swell forecast for Inch Co. Kerry for 6am Saturday is 53ft. :eek:

red_bairn

maquiladora wrote: »

The current primary swell forecast for Inch Co. Kerry for 6am Saturday is 53ft. :eek:

Time to surf?

Longboard

maquiladora wrote: »

The current primary swell forecast for Inch Co. Kerry for 6am Saturday is 53ft. :eek:

maquiladora

06Z GFS shows the storm at peak strength out at sea on Friday with very strong winds.



But weakening by the time it reaches the west coast.



We are probably not looking at winds as severe as what we've seen several times already this winter. The most significant aspect will probably be the risk of coastal flooding due to the combination of factors.

crx===

maquiladora wrote: »

The current primary swell forecast for Inch Co. Kerry for 6am Saturday is 53ft. :eek:

Yeah that's my bigest fear with this particular storm even though peak intensity may be reached at sea the worst swell coincides with peak spring tide which is predicted to be 5.4m at 6.10am at Ballybunion and 5.7m at 5.50am at Galway bay.... looks like costal flooding is almost certain on Saturday morning on low costal areas of the west coast.

Harps

A constant barrage of storms on the 6z GFS for the next 10 days, the Friday/Saturday one doesn't look too severe though as mentioned coastal flooding looks to be an issue, I don't know much about how those wave height charts work but it looks worrying again along the west coast. After that there's a storm every 24 hours so enjoy the relative calm of the next few days!

Birroc

crx=== wrote: »

Yeah that's my bigest fear with this particular storm even though peak intensity may be reached at sea the worst swell coincides with peak spring tide which is predicted to be 5.4m at 6.10am at Ballybunion and 5.7m at 5.50am at Galway bay.... looks like costal flooding is almost certain on Saturday morning on low costal areas of the west coast.

why is the exciting high tide always at dawn these days! I'll try and get up for it...

relaxed

Birroc wrote: »

why is the exciting high tide always at dawn these days! I'll try and get up for it...

was just about to post something similar!

Why can't it be sunday afternoon so we can all go storm watching with the kids:D

Conmaicne Mara

maquiladora wrote: »

The current primary swell forecast for Inch Co. Kerry for 6am Saturday is 53ft. :eek:

Where does one find this type of information? There was significant damage incurred by the last two tidal events here in Connemara. The sea took a lighthouse, septic tank, fishing gear, roads, cars, flooded houses, much damage and debris on farmland etc.

ninebeanrows

Coming right bang on high tide peaks, it does look worrying.

But yet again this season, it appears it could have been worse, if the intensity occurred just 12 hours later in this system life, we would be in big trouble.

maquiladora

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

Where does one find this type of information? There was significant damage incurred by the last two tidal events here in Connemara. The sea took a lighthouse, septic tank, fishing gear, roads, cars, flooded houses, much damage and debris on farmland etc.

http://magicseaweed.com/Inch-Reefs-Surf-Report/53/

Click on Satuday. Highest is 50.5ft now for 9am. It changes a few hours after each GFS run.

Hooter23

Not even a mention on the rte weather there......

Storm 10

Hooter23 wrote: »

Not even a mention on the rte weather there......

To early for them to respond yet, they said this morning that we would get severe wind gusts in the West on Friday/Saturday with high seas and coastal flooding.

_Whimsical_

RTE weather forecast have been warning of potentially very stormy condition for friday for a few days now.

Planet X

Flood alert issued for Cork city by Cork Council.
CORK CITY TIDAL FLOOD ALERT
The following flood alert has been issued by Cork City Council on 29th January, 2014

CORK CITY TIDAL FLOOD ALERT

The natural cycle of High Tides for the following days is predicted for the times given below:

Friday 31/01/14 05:37 hours and 17:59 hours

Saturday 01/02/14 06:24 hours and 18:44 hours

Sunday 02/02/14 07:09 hours and 19:28 hours

maquiladora

Fairly windy for the west/southwest coast on the 12Z GFS. Storm force 90-100 km/h sustained winds shown reaching the coast in places for Saturday morning. Dropping off very quickly as you go inland (also known as the "What storm?/Is this it?" zone)



Later in the early afternoon, gales for western, southern and eastern coastal areas with windy/blustery conditions inland.



12Z UKMO seems to have a slower/weaker evolution. So nothing nailed down just yet.

Iancar29

90-100 km/h sustained winds shown reaching the coast in places for Saturday morning. Dropping off very quickly as you go inland (also known as the "What storm?/Is this it?" zone)

Quote of the DAY!:pac::D

red_bairn

Iancar29 wrote: »

Quote of the DAY!:pac::D

Yeah. I'll go for a walk and be like skippin' down the road and suddenly whooooooosh! Blown down by the back hand of mother nature =(

Sparks

High tide alert from Dublin city council.

ninebeanrows

I think UKM looks quite strong when it hits land.

Not a great chart coupled with the high tides and storm surge.

Few more changes to come though in the next 48 hours.

Lumi

Galway City Council have also issued and advisory regarding potential flooding along quays and shorelines in the city over the next number of days
"Based on current weather forecasts, the highest risk is at high tide on Saturday at 5.47am."

sunbabe08

CORK CITY TIDAL FLOOD ALERT
The following flood alert has been issued by Cork City Council on 29th January, 2014

CORK CITY TIDAL FLOOD ALERT

The natural cycle of High Tides for the following days is predicted for the times given below:

Friday 31/01/14 05:37 hours and 17:59 hours

Saturday 01/02/14 06:24 hours and 18:44 hours

Sunday 02/02/14 07:09 hours and 19:28 hours

here we go again

aboyro

Just noticed this yesterday

http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=237

but also the M6 bouy is now drifting out there somewhere

ninebeanrows

ECMWF has it weakening as it approaches but still a fair gradient is likely across the country.

Big waves powering into the west coast.

M.T. Cranium

Holding steady would be my overall assessment of the 12z model runs, landfall appears to be most likely over Mayo around 0700h but possibly delayed to 0900h by looks of ECM. Slight southerly trend to this track but not enough to suggest any diminished concerns from about Westport south. Donegal not in the strong winds at all, Sligo, north Mayo and Leitrim might have a gradient situation at landfall, so we'll get some interesting contrasts in observations it would seem. Glad to read that Galway, Cork and other local authorities are preparing well in advance and think they are correct to assume Saturday morning would be the high tide of most concern. In theory this one could be worse than anything seen in January for coastal flooding, it is more aligned with the highest astronomical tides as well as presenting a nasty sea state. Would suggest also that the Kerry coasts might see very severe conditions and perhaps the strongest winds this time.

Comes a few hours late to impact on our January contest where max wind gusts were sought, but onset may be early enough to threaten the current value of 72 knots, eventually would think 75-80 knot gusts might be seen on Saturday morning from this one at either Mace Head or Valentia, Sherkin Island. Belmullet might be challenged to reach 60 on the suggested track, possibly well in advance of landfall. Very squally potential ahead of this low as coldest air rotates well to south of centre and thus atmosphere very unstable over south coast Friday afternoon and evening.

Mr Cumulonimbus

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Holding steady would be my overall assessment of the 12z model runs, landfall appears to be most likely over Mayo around 0700h but possibly delayed to 0900h by looks of ECM. Slight southerly trend to this track but not enough to suggest any diminished concerns from about Westport south...........

Hmmm, worrying again for Westport. Bertra beach (arrowed) took a right smashing in the storms earlier this month. Acts as a barrier for locations further east. Tides were meant to have been 2 metres over the predicted levels in the area, hence all the damage done. There's a 5.0m tide predicted for Westport at 6.17am on the morning of the 1st.

maquiladora

Spring Onion

There seems to be a fair few posters in the weather forum from Galway. I think we should all meet up at 6am on Saturday morning (Feb 1) at Blackrock diving board to watch the storm surges in the high tide. I cannot think of a better way to start the Spring.
Heck while we're at it, we might as well strip off all our clothes, rub our bodies with goose fat and frolic in the surf while screaming like little girls...

Who is with me?!?

Cogsy88

^^ it ain't spring till march.

dexter647

Spring Onion wrote: »

There seems to be a fair few posters in the weather forum from Galway. I think we should all meet up at 6am on Saturday morning (Feb 1) at Blackrock diving board to watch the storm surges in the high tide. I cannot think of a better way to start the Spring.
Heck while we're at it, we might as well strip off all our clothes, rub our bodies with goose fat and frolic in the surf while screaming like little girls...

Who is with me?!?

relaxed

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Hmmm, worrying again for Westport. Bertra beach (arrowed) took a right smashing in the storms earlier this month. Acts as a barrier for locations further east. Tides were meant to have been 2 metres over the predicted levels in the area, hence all the damage done. There's a 5.0m tide predicted for Westport at 6.17am on the morning of the 1st.

Any recent post storm pictures of that beach? I was there a few years back and even then patches off it looked like the sea could wash straight through it creating another island, if I remember correctly.

ninebeanrows

18z develops a really potent storm out to sea and the gradient that comes over us is still very tight even if the system is filling somewhat.


Extremely dangerous at this point.


Fills somewhat but still very threatening.

ninebeanrows

Sustained gales well inland..

maquiladora

18Z GFS shows gusts up to 100 km/h possible for most areas south of Ulster (would be a Yellow Alert) and gusts of up to 110-120 km/h for western coastal counties (would be an Orange Alert).

The threat of coastal flooding will be more significant than the wind I think.

Zzippy

relaxed wrote: »

Any recent post storm pictures of that beach? I was there a few years back and even then patches off it looked like the sea could wash straight through it creating another island, if I remember correctly.

Photo from the Helm's facebook page... https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=617660901604898&set=a.236780076359651.53442.160037887367204&type=1&theater

Mr Cumulonimbus

relaxed wrote: »

Any recent post storm pictures of that beach? I was there a few years back and even then patches off it looked like the sea could wash straight through it creating another island, if I remember correctly.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057129669

ninebeanrows

Hopefully storm fatigue doesn't catch anybody out, the combination of high tides, storm surge, onshore winds could be as bad as the December system.

_Whimsical_

Not the thread for it but for the interest of anyone who....might be interested. A prehistoric fort in Kerry fell victim to the last storm. It is situated on a cliff and sections have fallen into the sea as the ground beneath it eroded. I doubt it'll survive too much more bad weather. A sad sight.

http://www.rte.ie/news/player/2014/0129/20515357-section-of-prehistoric-fort-falls-into-the-sea-in-co-kerry/

Cogsy88

Weathercheck wrote: »

Hopefully storm fatigue doesn't catch anybody out, the combination of high tides, storm surge, onshore winds could be as bad as the December system.

And one of my mates wants to go fishing on sat at high tide. I've warned him but he wont listen. High tide on sat is the same height as the last surge, 4.50m at 13.42 which seems to coincide with the peak of the winds. A bit worrying all the same.

Oneiric 3

Getting into hi-res territory. A fairly wide wind field developing helping to big up dem waves.



Will be interesting to see if we can get an 80 knot + gust speed from this one. Something, despite media claims of the 'worst storms in years', that has yet to be surpassed this winter so far at any of the regular reporting stations.

Oscar Bravo

A 2326 update from Met Eireann,expect warnings to go up tomorrow

Dry overnight apart from a few isolated showers. some breaks in cloud in the midlands and east with patches of frost and fog forming. It will become increasingly cloudy further west. Lowest temperatures 0 to 3 degrees.


Tomorrow

On Thursday, outbreaks of rain will develop in the west early in the morning and will gradually extend over much of the western half of the country. Further east it will be mainly dry with some bright intervals and a few showers. Highest temperatures of 4 to 8 degrees with light to moderate southeast breezes.

Outlook

Largely dry at first on Thursday night, apart from a few isolated showers. Some brief frost may develop early in the night as temperatures fall to between -1 and +2 degrees. This will be short lived as fresh to strong southerly winds develop and outbreaks of heavy rain move into the west of the country.

Friday will be a very wet and windy day, with some large rainfall totals expected, especially across the west of the country where there is the risk of flooding. Highs of 6 to 9 degrees, with fresh to strong southerly winds which will veer westerly later. Along the west coast the winds will reach gale force. The rain will clear the east coast early in the night, but another system will move into the west coast later in the night. The rain will be preceded by some wintry precipitation, but heavy rain will quickly follow.

Another wet day on Saturday with heavy falls of rain, with sleet on higher ground. A cool day with highs of 5 to 7 degrees. Strong and gusty westerly winds overland, but along western and southern coasts the winds will reach gale force with some severe gusts likely. The strong winds and high seas coupled with high tides may cause coastal flooding. Becoming largely dry overnight, apart from showers along the west coast. Cold with lows of -2 to +2.

Sunday will see the showers continuing along the west coast, but it will stay drier elsewhere. Highs of 5 to 8 degrees.

The unsettled weather will continue into the early days of next week.

M.T. Cranium

Storm has developed with a 988 mb centre east of Newfoundland and steady deepening underway. Models continue to show a very strong low Friday mid-day around 20W with only slight weakening before what appears to be landfall in Mayo around 0700-0900h Saturday. Southwest gale to storm force winds likely from about 0300h to 1200h in most exposed areas of west, south and some inland regions well exposed to the SW through W directions such as Limerick.

I expect there will be a reassessment from the 12z models so will leave this discussion for now until that new guidance becomes available.

ch750536

Crapbiscuits. Still not recovered power after last Sunday. Onward & upward!

maquiladora

Met.ie :

Saturday will be very windy or stormy with widespread heavy showers of rain, hail and sleet. Westerly winds will be strong to gale force with severe gusts of between 90 and 130 km/hr. The winds will be strongest in coastal counties of the southwest, west and north. The strong winds along with very high waves and high tides may cause coastal flooding.

snowstreams

The high tide is projected to be 5.9m in Galway at 05:51am
Does anyone know how it was at the time of the last major flooding in early January? This could potentially be worse than the last time since its a very high tide.

maquiladora

From NWS Ocean Prediction Center

The following sets of images highlight a rapidly intensifying low pressure across northeastern Atlantic. The first graphic contains a WV image from 0645Z, and the insert a portion of the 06Z OPC surface analysis. The low was analyzed to 986 mb, and is forecast to deepen to 946 mb by 06Z on Jan 31. The second image is GFS model output, valid at Feb 01 00Z, which centers a 939 mb low pressure just to the west-northwest of Ireland and the UK. Note the intense and expansive wind field, including areas of hurricane force (bright red), storm force (dark brown), and gale force (yellow) winds. The third image is WWIII output, also valid at Feb 01 00Z, showing the phenomenal significant wave heights generated west of Ireland (>54 feet).

Storm 10

Maq is that wave height going to have much of an impact on the West Coast ??

Storm 10

Met Eireann just upgraded the storm

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Munster, Connacht and Donegal

An Atlantic storm depression will track to the northwet of the country later Friday night and Saturday.
Southwest winds gusting 100 to 130 km/h, strongest across the Atlantic counties.
Frequent heavy showers, some thundery with sleet and snow for a time mainly on higher ground.

High coastal flood risk too due to the combination of very high spring tides, extremely high waves (greater than 10 m), low pressure and onshore winds - southwest, west and northwest margins most at threat.
Issued:
Thursday 30 January 2014 10:00

Valid:
Saturday 01 February 2014 00:01 to Sunday 02 February 2014 01:00