2014 Champion Hurdle

ste2010

I'd agree with the above. My prediction is the top 4 will include our Conor, hurricane fly, un de sceaux (if he goes) and Annie power in no particular order

kiers47

If that bet is still on the table premier I'll give some even money as well.

hucklebuck

hucklebuck wrote: »

I really don't understand all this Jezki bluster, he is a fair way off the other market principles to my mind.

Cee Bee might be in the Champion Hurdle instead now :pac:

hawkhead

.

barney4001

On todays running Our Coner must be about the greatest ever Triumph hurdle winner,and when i heard that The Fly had suffered a bruised foot during the week,that Mullins was making a ready made excuse had the Fly been been beaten today

MadHorse

Todays race shoult leave Our Connor perfect for CH. He traveled nicely, jumped really well and even though The fly put a lenght on him after the last chelt probable faster ground along with OC peaking at chelt I'm very happy with the 7's i took earlier

kenco

Think my thoughts on the Champion Hurdle have hardened further after todays race.

Great run and win by the Fly but again ideal conditions. If he turns up in the right mind in March he should win. The ones behind him today will be better but still not good enough on the day if the Fly is at his best but this I think his his last season and 2015 could be historic as the pretenders will have had more time on them.

If I had to pick one to possibly upset the applecart it would be UDS (Annie Power wont be run this year....)

byronbay2

I don't think you can draw too many conclusions from today's race except that HF is as good as ever - speed and stamina to burn on soft ground at Leopardstown. I think he is a more-than-fair price at 3/1 and must have a great chance of winning his 3rd CH in March. I haven't backed him and probably wouldn't until the day at this stage - always great offers on Champion Hurdle day!

My thoughts have crystallised to the extent that I don't think anything outside the top 5 or 6 can win and I don't fancy Jezki or UDS. This leaves the Big 4 and if AP was to not run I would be very happy to dutch HF and TNO at about 5/4. Our Conor would be the only danger in that scenario (don't fancy MTOY to win this year) and I think he still needs to improve a bit - one for next year!

kenco

byronbay2 wrote: »

I don't think you can draw too many conclusions from today's race except that HF is as good as ever - speed and stamina to burn on soft ground at Leopardstown. I think he is a more-than-fair price at 3/1 and must have a great chance of winning his 3rd CH in March. I haven't backed him and probably wouldn't until the day at this stage - always great offers on Champion Hurdle day!

My thoughts have crystallised to the extent that I don't think anything outside the top 5 or 6 can win and I don't fancy Jezki or UDS. This leaves the Big 4 and if AP was to not run I would be very happy to dutch HF and TNO at about 5/4. Our Conor would be the only danger in that scenario (don't fancy MTOY to win this year) and I think he still needs to improve a bit - one for next year!

Yep agree

Small field and ok ground, if the Fly turns up in the right mind I think he will win (again by 2 lengths or so unless he really as Ruby puts its shows them what he is made of). If the ground is good then maybe hes vulnerable.

However 2015 already looks a corker with the ones we know of and whats yet to come from the juveniles this year! Throw Annie Power into the mix (dropping back and not defending the World Hurdle!!!) thats going to be some race!

ste2010

I firmly believe Annie power will run in this race, no chance ricci will let her go to the world hurdle. Mullins is a clever little jester all the same...keeping her and especially un de sceaux in small fields and straight forward races to ensure he has the "not enough" experience angle to defend his view..
Lets think of this scenario a week before the festival
Hurricane fly is injured
Une de sceaux scopes badly
Annie power is entered in the CH and WH
Which one does he and ruby choose?

Straight forward..you could apply the same to UDS...

If they were not being selfish the answer to which race they go to is very simple
Which ever race is the most prestigious that they have a chance in winning.

The ruby factor also applies...he'll bill the options in favour of him racing as many of them as he can in different races. Nothing whatsoever to do with what race they should really go to but when you have 2 experts in the game telling you the same thing it would be very hard not to doubt yourself as an owner

ste2010

I reckon the new ones form may not be as good as people think. My angle for this was due to what i heard about ...I believe McCoy mentioned he will more than likely ride jezki in the CH...that's enough for me

jimjamcos

Ruby is sure to have himself in Richi's good books after going to boring ole Doncaster just to ride AP in a nothing race yesterday. The longer he remains the only man to ride her over jumps, the less chance there is we'll see anyone else on her.

On UDS, running him will be the beating of Hurricane Fly imo (and don't think it'll happen). Not saying UDS will win but if he sets a searing pace, can see him setting it up for a strong travelling Our Conor at Hurricane Fly's expense.

chinguetti

So Mullins has 3 chances in the race but how will he please 3 different owners who may all want to run in the race? Can't see Ruby getting off the Fly so both trainer and jockey will want to keep all horses apart.

If Quevaga wasn't in the Mares race (has anyone heard anything about her yet?), AP would run in that race and he'ld aim UDS to another race at the festival. As they would probably be roaring favourites to win their races, he would have 3 happy owners come March 11th.

He may end up with 3 owners who demand to run in the CH so how he'll handle this will be really interesting.

mdwexford

I think UDS will give the festival a miss.

ste2010

Yep I'd say so...disappointed to be honest

jimjamcos

chinguetti wrote: »

So Mullins has 3 chances in the race but how will he please 3 different owners who may all want to run in the race? Can't see Ruby getting off the Fly so both trainer and jockey will want to keep all horses apart.

If Quevaga wasn't in the Mares race (has anyone heard anything about her yet?), AP would run in that race and he'ld aim UDS to another race at the festival. As they would probably be roaring favourites to win their races, he would have 3 happy owners come March 11th.

He may end up with 3 owners who demand to run in the CH so how he'll handle this will be really interesting.

There's no other race for UDS bar CH. He'll either run it it or skip festival. The latter will happen I'm afraid.

battser

can't believe the bookies didn't cut OC down a bit more on price for this. Took the 6's earlier today and am delighted with it. Really think he is gonna be something special. If Jezki turns over todays form in March I will back the nearest 100-1 shot at 100 ew at the festival.
HF still the one to beat on form and rightly so.

tipster

jezki has no right to even go to cheltenham badly found out today

paddy no 11

Jezki and TNO will be out the front trying to stretch the race out from the start, OC and MTOY will be happy with that no one will take the fly in a sprint. The blue print to beat him is there from last years race.

Mullins cant let UDS be there with them tragic for us punters as would love to see them all line up

Panrich

And what if the owner of Un De Sceaux wants his horse to take his chance (and who could blame him)? After all, 'he who pays the piper, calls the tune'.

ste2010

I hate to say it but HF is not going to win this year. I would be over the moon if he did but the opposition is too strong this year. The course and speed of the race will favour others more than him. There was no Annie power, jezki, our Conor the new one and MTOY in te race last year. I would be over the moon if he did but I don't think it'll happen

RichieLawlor

ste2010 wrote: »

I reckon the new ones form may not be as good as people think. My angle for this was due to what i heard about ...I believe McCoy mentioned he will more than likely ride jezki in the CH...that's enough for me

McCoy is a million to ride Jeski ahead of MTOY

STADEdeLUC

I think the New One will be found out on the 11th, I look back on his race with Zarkander where I know he put 5/6 lengths past him in the end but he made tough work of it, that added to his jumping of the last in the Christmas Hurdle. Jezki wont be over turning any results, A match between Hurricane Fly,MTOY and Our Conor is on the cards I think, hope Hurricane Fly makes it 3

hucklebuck

Far too much being made of McCoy saying he is riding Jezki, even if he did say it he was at the same craic before the Grand National when he switched to Don't Push It after saying for weeks he was riding another horse (can't remember the other horse)

CheltenhamJ

tipster wrote: »

jezki has no right to even go to cheltenham badly found out today

I think this is way off the mark, still believe it has a place chance ( better ground , poor tactics today etc )

hucklebuck

CheltenhamJ wrote: »

I think this is way off the mark, still believe it has a place chance ( better ground , poor tactics today etc )

He had one really good run and people still cream themselves about him, it's possible he was just a very forward 4 year old.

CheltenhamJ

hucklebuck wrote: »

He had one really good run and people still cream themselves about him, it's possible he was just a very forward 4 year old.

Possible but more than one good run , poor ride in supreme

andyman

CheltenhamJ wrote: »

Possible but more than one good run , poor ride in supreme

And poor jumping in that race, as well as the last two.

hucklebuck

CheltenhamJ wrote: »

Possible but more than one good run , poor ride in supreme

I disagree, he just couldn't crack a very game Champagne Fever.

The future novices was a very taking win and the Punchestown race CF had been on the go whereas he had a break before Cheltenham. I wouldn't class small winning margains against the likes of Zaidpour, Diakali and Caid De Berlais as good runs nevermind even remotely close to Champion Hurdle form

jimjamcos

Where they stand in my mind at present...

Hurricane Fly: As good as ever, has the best jockey onboard, a worthy fav but opposable at Cheltenham yet again for me. Could get stretched by a strong pacesetter. Soft in description and UDS not running key to his chances imo.

The New One: Unlike Hurricane Fly, he loves the track. Needs a Carberry cool ride and question marks whether STD can do that consistently imo. Jumping dodgy when pressure comes on. Clearly has a massive engine and will be bang there but short enough at present given his jumping. That may improve for better ground, however.

My Tent Or Yours: Seems to have matured this season and battled well to beat TNO at Kempton. Jumps well but at the end of the day, he was beaten by Champagne Fever at Cheltenham last year and probably would have been beaten by TNO but for a mistake by the Twiston Davies horse. Has class but would you trust him to out-battle the rest up the hill? I don't.

Our Conor: Is the best hurdler in the race along with Hurricane Fly. Travels through his races beautifully and while failing to see it out on in his last two runs, it's very hard to see him not there come the last in March, regardless of pace set. Jockey a negative in a finish, however.

Annie Power: Like TNO, clearly has a huge engine but unproven on good ground. Only time she's ran in a race with good in the description was when she faced Zarkander three runs back. Although the slow run nature of that race wouldn't have suited, she hit two hurdles that day which would have proved costly if she wasn't so far ahead of Zarkander in class. Made another mistake at the last in yesterday's race but Ruby took the blame for that. May jump better at a Champion Hurdle pace.

Jezki: A disappointment today. Has 4 Gr1's to his name but beating Champagne Fever in novice events and stayers in the Hatton's Grace leaves him with a massive leap to make come March. After the promise/excuses from Ryanair Hurdle, he looked to lack the extra gear needed today and jumping just isn't good enough.

Un De Sceaux: Impossible to know how good he is and very unlikely we'll find out anytime soon. IMO he hurdles well enough for a Champion Hurdle horse and is a future Gr1 hurdler in my mind. Would taking some catching if he set off in the Champion Hurdle and anyone who's backed him would be sure to get an exciting run for their money. Unlikely though.

The rest will be nowhere.

Having backed AP and UDS, one or both wont turn up. If that's the case, pretty sure I'll be siding with Our Conor on the day. Guaranteed to be there when it matters and given the improvement he's shown from race to race so far, I'd be hopeful (as is Hughes) that he'll improve again for Cheltenham and the Spring.