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2014 Champion Hurdle

Themonkey

Taught id start a thread after going through the footage of the trials and watching annie power today i think The FLY is going to be very hard to beat i think jezki and our conor are the 2 to challenge him.I watched the kempton race again and im not to sure what to make of My Tent Or Yours i think he could improve plenty more but at the moment im thinking he could be a 2015 horse but my main point of this thread has to be the champion hurdle fav has to be the most overrated horse in training how he is fav is beyond me maybe im missing something but ill be stunned if he is in the first 3 never mind wins as bookies predict... 1 The FLY 2 Our Conor 3 My Tent Or Yours ..cant wait for jezki over a fence

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faoile@n

Gringo180 wrote: »

How can you have a pacemaker in a 4 runner race If he sets off to ensure a real good gallop he will just be ignored which he was to a point in the race before yesterday, at least in the Champion you will have a big field where there will be a proper gallop by all from pillar to post.

Jezki got this in last years Supreme and couldn't pick up past Champagne Fever or My Tent Or Yours. Jezki doesn't have the tactical speed to win a champion hurdle.

He'll be outpaced again and get himself in trouble rounding the bend. Some people will continue to make excuses for him and blame jockey error (Power and McCoy have both been blamed in some quarters for giving him bad rides) but as far as I'm concerned he's just there to make the market for others

He's also now 0/2 at the course.

anuprising

how did a 149 rated hurdler get that near hurricane fly ? did captain cee bee improve that much ? answer is no

all the 2 mile maidens run were faster than the champion hurdle , even the mares maiden was only one second behind hf

quickpick vic on the same track and same ground ran 4 seconds faster than hurricane fly in the first race yesterday

the boylesports was same distance and 6 secs faster than hurricane fly

how can handicappers and maidens get from A to B quicker than a 2 time champion hurdler under the same conditions ?

Gringo180

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Post makes little sense to me, It was Jeskis connections who sent Captain Cee Bee out to set that pace

How can you have a pacemaker in a 4 runner race

If he sets off to ensure a real good gallop he will just be ignored which he was to a point in the race before yesterday, at least in the Champion you will have a big field where there will be a proper gallop by all from pillar to post.

anuprising

Gringo180 wrote: »

Cant believe people writing off Jezki's chances. Listen scratch that race yesterday it was a complete shambles, it was basically a 4f sprint race in which suited HF and OC much more (2 horses bred for the flat). A true run race which you always get in the Champion and you will see Jezki at his best.

at last a man talking sense !:D

RichieLawlor

Gringo180 wrote: »

Cant believe people writing off Jezki's chances. Listen scratch that race yesterday it was a complete shambles, it was basically a 4f sprint race in which suited HF and OC much more (2 horses bred for the flat). A true run race which you always get in the Champion and you will see Jezki at his best.

Post makes little sense to me, It was Jeskis connections who sent Captain Cee Bee out to set that pace

premierstone

Huntley wrote: »

Premierstone, if you have reliable information that McCoy will ride Jezki than I see no reason why evens either or wouldn't be fair.

I'd be prepared to have anything up to two hundred whacks that he will be riding My Tent Or Yours in March should both animals turn up.

kiers47 wrote: »

I think thats probably a fair price considering

kiers47 wrote: »

If that bet is still on the table premier I'll give some even money as well.

Even money was perfectly fair before yesterday, I wouldnt be so keen to part with my cash now though, glad I wasn't on here over the weekend

Someone mentioneD there that Noel Hayes head of tote Ireland and former owner of Our Conor had said AP was favouring Jezki, I had heard that also and I believe Kevin Blake has mentioned the same, neither of these were my source, but as I said above yesterday may well have changed all that!

Neither horse will finish in the first three so I wouldnt loose to much sleep over it if I was AP!

Gringo180

Cant believe people writing off Jezki's chances. Listen scratch that race yesterday it was a complete shambles, it was basically a 4f sprint race in which suited HF and OC much more (2 horses bred for the flat). A true run race which you always get in the Champion and you will see Jezki at his best.

Hulk Hands

If Annie Power goes for the race, she will go off close to favoritism imo. I can see her and OC shortening in the build up with the front two drifting. The market is still hitting over 100% for the front 7, even discounting rags. 9/2 the field at best prices the morning of the race, i'm calling it now!

hucklebuck

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I wish somebody could explain the Un De Sceaux hype to me. He's won two piss-poor races this year, at odds of 1/12 and 1/16, and people are talking about him as a Champion Hurdle horse?? Ridiculous.

I assume you watched the races? He is a tool and looks to have a Ferrari engine. He is visually a champion hurdle horse, his times are very good bearing in mind he has run them with no company, not being asked for maximum effort and being eased down.

He beat Rory O Moore as you would expect on ratings in his reappearance, if ROM ran to his mark, UDS ran 162 eased down without being asked to quicken in a time of 3m55. If the second last time ran to his mark(possibly unlikely) he ran 172 being eased 3 from home and in 4m10.

He is a wonderful horse imo.

the groutch

sparky35 wrote: »

^^^^ well said the only one on here making any sense imo.

you waited 6 years to post THAT? lol

sparky35

^^^^ well said the only one on here making any sense imo.

klairondavis

I can see the top two from Leopardstown fighting out the finish at Cheltenham again.

Jezki isn't good enough. His jumping isn't up to it at this level.

My Tent Or Yours looks more of a flat track type to me. He's classy but lacks the resolution to win it.

The New One has an engine but again I would have concerns about his hurdling. He's the type of horse who could be handy the whole way and try to grind it out from two out like Hardy Eustace used to do. I'm not sure he jumps slickly enough to do that.

I don't think Un De Sceaux will go to Cheltenham and if Annie Power does go I think it will be for the Stayers.

I have it between Our Conor and Hurricane Fly. Dessie Hughes will probably have left a little bit to work on and the experience of a proper Grade 1 will bring him on further. Hurricane Fly will have a 2 lbs pull with him at Cheltenham so he will have to step forward again. Like others on here, you would have to have reservations about the rider given his lack of experience at the highest level. Hurricane Fly has been a few lbs shy of his brilliant best at Cheltenham in the past and he's probably slightly on the downgrade now. I still think he has less question marks over him than the other contenders though. Our Conor will be a serious hurdler if he stays sound but this might come a year too soon for him.

dicky dunne

Very impressed with the manner of hurricane fly's win today, still think he will be the one to beat this year, encouraging run by OC who was in receipt of 2lbs today that he won't be come march, this year will come too soon for him though I feel

Harry Angstrom

I wish somebody could explain the Un De Sceaux hype to me. He's won two piss-poor races this year, at odds of 1/12 and 1/16, and people are talking about him as a Champion Hurdle horse?? Ridiculous.

ste2010

RichieLawlor wrote: »

McCoy is a million to ride Jeski ahead of MTOY

2euro please

jimjamcos

Where they stand in my mind at present...

Hurricane Fly: As good as ever, has the best jockey onboard, a worthy fav but opposable at Cheltenham yet again for me. Could get stretched by a strong pacesetter. Soft in description and UDS not running key to his chances imo.

The New One: Unlike Hurricane Fly, he loves the track. Needs a Carberry cool ride and question marks whether STD can do that consistently imo. Jumping dodgy when pressure comes on. Clearly has a massive engine and will be bang there but short enough at present given his jumping. That may improve for better ground, however.

My Tent Or Yours: Seems to have matured this season and battled well to beat TNO at Kempton. Jumps well but at the end of the day, he was beaten by Champagne Fever at Cheltenham last year and probably would have been beaten by TNO but for a mistake by the Twiston Davies horse. Has class but would you trust him to out-battle the rest up the hill? I don't.

Our Conor: Is the best hurdler in the race along with Hurricane Fly. Travels through his races beautifully and while failing to see it out on in his last two runs, it's very hard to see him not there come the last in March, regardless of pace set. Jockey a negative in a finish, however.

Annie Power: Like TNO, clearly has a huge engine but unproven on good ground. Only time she's ran in a race with good in the description was when she faced Zarkander three runs back. Although the slow run nature of that race wouldn't have suited, she hit two hurdles that day which would have proved costly if she wasn't so far ahead of Zarkander in class. Made another mistake at the last in yesterday's race but Ruby took the blame for that. May jump better at a Champion Hurdle pace.

Jezki: A disappointment today. Has 4 Gr1's to his name but beating Champagne Fever in novice events and stayers in the Hatton's Grace leaves him with a massive leap to make come March. After the promise/excuses from Ryanair Hurdle, he looked to lack the extra gear needed today and jumping just isn't good enough.

Un De Sceaux: Impossible to know how good he is and very unlikely we'll find out anytime soon. IMO he hurdles well enough for a Champion Hurdle horse and is a future Gr1 hurdler in my mind. Would taking some catching if he set off in the Champion Hurdle and anyone who's backed him would be sure to get an exciting run for their money. Unlikely though.

The rest will be nowhere.

Having backed AP and UDS, one or both wont turn up. If that's the case, pretty sure I'll be siding with Our Conor on the day. Guaranteed to be there when it matters and given the improvement he's shown from race to race so far, I'd be hopeful (as is Hughes) that he'll improve again for Cheltenham and the Spring.

hucklebuck

CheltenhamJ wrote: »

Possible but more than one good run , poor ride in supreme

I disagree, he just couldn't crack a very game Champagne Fever.

The future novices was a very taking win and the Punchestown race CF had been on the go whereas he had a break before Cheltenham. I wouldn't class small winning margains against the likes of Zaidpour, Diakali and Caid De Berlais as good runs nevermind even remotely close to Champion Hurdle form

andyman

CheltenhamJ wrote: »

Possible but more than one good run , poor ride in supreme

And poor jumping in that race, as well as the last two.

CheltenhamJ

hucklebuck wrote: »

He had one really good run and people still cream themselves about him, it's possible he was just a very forward 4 year old.

Possible but more than one good run , poor ride in supreme

hucklebuck

CheltenhamJ wrote: »

I think this is way off the mark, still believe it has a place chance ( better ground , poor tactics today etc )

He had one really good run and people still cream themselves about him, it's possible he was just a very forward 4 year old.

CheltenhamJ

tipster wrote: »

jezki has no right to even go to cheltenham badly found out today

I think this is way off the mark, still believe it has a place chance ( better ground , poor tactics today etc )

hucklebuck

Far too much being made of McCoy saying he is riding Jezki, even if he did say it he was at the same craic before the Grand National when he switched to Don't Push It after saying for weeks he was riding another horse (can't remember the other horse)

STADEdeLUC

I think the New One will be found out on the 11th, I look back on his race with Zarkander where I know he put 5/6 lengths past him in the end but he made tough work of it, that added to his jumping of the last in the Christmas Hurdle. Jezki wont be over turning any results, A match between Hurricane Fly,MTOY and Our Conor is on the cards I think, hope Hurricane Fly makes it 3

RichieLawlor

ste2010 wrote: »

I reckon the new ones form may not be as good as people think. My angle for this was due to what i heard about ...I believe McCoy mentioned he will more than likely ride jezki in the CH...that's enough for me

McCoy is a million to ride Jeski ahead of MTOY

ste2010

I hate to say it but HF is not going to win this year. I would be over the moon if he did but the opposition is too strong this year. The course and speed of the race will favour others more than him. There was no Annie power, jezki, our Conor the new one and MTOY in te race last year. I would be over the moon if he did but I don't think it'll happen

Panrich

And what if the owner of Un De Sceaux wants his horse to take his chance (and who could blame him)? After all, 'he who pays the piper, calls the tune'.

paddy no 11

Jezki and TNO will be out the front trying to stretch the race out from the start, OC and MTOY will be happy with that no one will take the fly in a sprint. The blue print to beat him is there from last years race.

Mullins cant let UDS be there with them tragic for us punters as would love to see them all line up

tipster

jezki has no right to even go to cheltenham badly found out today

battser

can't believe the bookies didn't cut OC down a bit more on price for this. Took the 6's earlier today and am delighted with it. Really think he is gonna be something special. If Jezki turns over todays form in March I will back the nearest 100-1 shot at 100 ew at the festival.
HF still the one to beat on form and rightly so.

jimjamcos

chinguetti wrote: »

So Mullins has 3 chances in the race but how will he please 3 different owners who may all want to run in the race? Can't see Ruby getting off the Fly so both trainer and jockey will want to keep all horses apart.

If Quevaga wasn't in the Mares race (has anyone heard anything about her yet?), AP would run in that race and he'ld aim UDS to another race at the festival. As they would probably be roaring favourites to win their races, he would have 3 happy owners come March 11th.

He may end up with 3 owners who demand to run in the CH so how he'll handle this will be really interesting.

There's no other race for UDS bar CH. He'll either run it it or skip festival. The latter will happen I'm afraid.