2014 Champion Hurdle

Themonkey

Taught id start a thread after going through the footage of the trials and watching annie power today i think The FLY is going to be very hard to beat i think jezki and our conor are the 2 to challenge him.I watched the kempton race again and im not to sure what to make of My Tent Or Yours i think he could improve plenty more but at the moment im thinking he could be a 2015 horse but my main point of this thread has to be the champion hurdle fav has to be the most overrated horse in training how he is fav is beyond me maybe im missing something but ill be stunned if he is in the first 3 never mind wins as bookies predict... 1 The FLY 2 Our Conor 3 My Tent Or Yours ..cant wait for jezki over a fence

Harry Angstrom

Not exactly sticking my neck out, but I wouldn't be looking beyond Hurricane Fly and The New One at this stage.

longshotvalue

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Not exactly sticking my neck out, but I wouldn't be looking beyond Hurricane Fly and The New One at this stage.

I have those 2 as my shortlist as well, so hopefully Fly can win..

king Henry 14

The fly is a legend but I don't think he's seen to best effect at Cheltenham. Admittedly he's won ther twice but I'm not convinced. I'd like to see Geraghty on jezki because he's gotten the best out of him in the past. The new one and our Connor very impressive at last year's festival so need a lot of consideration. MTOY not for me. No particular reason but I just can't see him winning. If pushed to make a choice I'd go for jezki if he has Geraghty on board. Some race in prospect though.

ste2010

Waiting for Un de Sceaux to run in graded company. Took the highest jump in ratings post 2 races over hurdles last season..IMO they need to give him experience in a big field sooner rather than later..completely unexposed and can only get even better with experience.
Hurricane fly is a superstar though, anything that beats him this year will need to be a superstar.

ComplyOrDie

Last year Our Conor was my banker and he won quiet easily. I seen him the other day and to be honest Hurricane Fly looked very fit and Our Conor looked like he will improve for the race. At this stage the fly is the one to beat but I wont be having a bet until I see them in the flesh over in chelt. If Our Conor turns up fit and well, I think he can beat the Fly and I expect alot of progression as he did not look as fit as the fly in leop.

SRFC

Our Conor will never beat hurricane fly sure what happened Our Conor working incredibly at home,he had racecourse gallops and all the animal is not up to HFs level especially around Leopardstown


Ricci should be demanding AP run against HF in the irish champion to see how good she is,if she wins go the champion if not go a different route.

oPATCHo

As it stands, I'm favouring The Fly and TNO.

Soft/Heavy conditions in March, The Fly's will be difficult to beat. We're into January and we haven't seen the worse of Winter yet, I'm wondering whether we will have a wet and cold Festive again, similar to last year.

If TNO had a more experienced jockey on board, then I'd be flying in more ante post. I'm hoping Sam can get the very best out of the TNO with no mistakes, if he does then he will come very close

Will be a cracking race!!

Foxinho

Hurricane Fly for me, he has the best pilot on board, knows what it takes to win in Preswick Park on the big day, cant see him losing tbh, MTOY and TNO may be horses for 2015 CH , my money will be going on the Fly

shamdrog63

Can,t really disagree that he,s the logical winner but he hit a flat spot during last years race and I nearly died.At the odds I couldn,t put myself through that again.I won,t have a bet in the race this year but will lay Our Conor because of the poor record of triumph winners and I think last years field was particularly poor.

kiers47

shamdrog63 wrote: »

Can,t really disagree that he,s the logical winner but he hit a flat spot during last years race and I nearly died.At the odds I couldn,t put myself through that again.I won,t have a bet in the race this year but will lay Our Conor because of the poor record of triumph winners and I think last years field was particularly poor.

Surely there are better lays than a 8/1 shot? The form is hardly poor as far as triumphs go and he won it by 15L.
For what it's worth I'm not convinced he can win myself but I would rather sit it out than lay an 8/1 shot.
Are you really willing to lay him at 8/1?

shamdrog63

I,m not sure I,d have to lay him @ 8/1.The race can be narrowed down to HF, MTOY,The New One, Our Conor,Jezki and possibly Melodic Rendezvous.An improvement on his last showing against HF on Sunday will contract his price and I,m sure he,ll be much shorter on the day @ 4th fav behind HF, MTOY & TNO.

kiers47

shamdrog63 wrote: »

I,m not sure I,d have to lay him @ 8/1.The race can be narrowed down to HF, MTOY,The New One, Our Conor,Jezki and possibly Melodic Rendezvous.An improvement on his last showing against HF on Sunday will contract his price and I,m sure he,ll be much shorter on the day @ 4th fav behind HF, MTOY & TNO.

What if he won on Sunday and was into 4/1ish would you lay him then.??

shamdrog63

If he wins on Sunday that obviously changes everything.He,d have beaten for me the most likely winner in HF and would be much shorter.I don,t see any of the 1st time CH challengers as being exceptional and only a deterioration in HF would see him beaten.

Gringo180

If The New One scrubs up on his jumping he will be very hard to beat. Will love the track.

premierstone

Gringo180 wrote: »

If The New One scrubs up on his jumping he will be very hard to beat. Will love the track.

This is a huge huge issue though, in the race reports of his 9 hurdle races, either ''not-fluent'', ''blundered'' or ''bad mistake'' appears in 6 of them, he will not get away with that in a Champion, not a hope. Plus his jumping will be under more pressure than it has ever been in this race.

Gringo180

premierstone wrote: »

This is a huge huge issue though, in the race reports of his 9 hurdle races, either ''not-fluent'', ''blundered'' or ''bad mistake'' appears in 6 of them, he will not get away with that in a Champion, not a hope. Plus his jumping will be under more pressure than it has ever been in this race.

Intense schooling in the next few weeks will hopefully have him pinging them come March :cool:

premierstone

Gringo180 wrote: »

Intense schooling in the next few weeks will hopefully have him pinging them come March :cool:

If you can't jump you simply can't jump no amount of schooling is going to turn him in to a top jumper, the RP did a very interesting analysis of the Champion Hurdle recently where they went through each of the contenders and how they felt the race would pan out, they basically concluded that it would come down to jumping and that Our Conor and Hurricane Fly would have it between them as a result.

shamdrog63

Thats a good point about TNO,s jumping & don,t know that intense schooling, after he,s had 9 races and still doesn,t jump well, would help him.Some horses improve their jumping when there is a good pace but he seems to make mistakes at the business end when there will be less time to recover.

premierstone

shamdrog63 wrote: »

Thats a good point about TNO,s jumping & don,t know that intense schooling, after he,s had 9 races and still doesn,t jump well, would help him.Some horses improve their jumping when there is a good pace but he seems to make mistakes at the business end when there will be less time to recover.

As an avid Hurricane Fly fan who has some juicy antepost dockets, I was genuinely worried about TNO untill the second last run and the blunder he made I just turned to a mate and said ''wow Hurricane would have taken four lenghts out of him there'', and then he repeated the mistake the next day, personally think the Irish have it between them and that Annie Power could now be the biggest danger to my slush fund!

I have it on pretty reliable word though that McCoy is very much leaning in favour of Jezki over MTOY and that would be another huge blow to the english form.

kiers47

I would think there is absolutely zero chance that McCoy rides Jezki he is a massive MTOY fan and has been since day 1.

premierstone

kiers47 wrote: »

I would think there is absolutely zero chance that McCoy rides Jezki he is a massive MTOY fan and has been since day 1.

Price?? I'm sure we can get someone to escrow the funds!

kiers47

premierstone wrote: »

Price?? I'm sure we can get someone to escrow the funds!

Wouldn't be my idea of a betting opportunity I just think it highly unlikely.

Huntley

Premierstone, if you have reliable information that McCoy will ride Jezki than I see no reason why evens either or wouldn't be fair.

I'd be prepared to have anything up to two hundred whacks that he will be riding My Tent Or Yours in March should both animals turn up.

kiers47

I think thats probably a fair price considering

anuprising

when jezki wins on sunday ,he will commit to riding him in Cheltenham also

jimjamcos

Noel Hayes, Tote employee and Our Conor's ex owner, reported a few weeks back online that he heard McCoy was leaning towards Jezki. He's usually spot on with his info too, having reported that Jezki wouldn't run in Morgiana before he was pulled.

ATR:

Tony McCoy expects to make a very late call on what he will ride in the Stan James Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.

The champion jockey can currently pick from two leading lights, with Nicky Henderson's My Tent Or Yours and the Jessica Harrington-trained Jezki both carrying the colours of his boss JP McManus.

Jezki will have another go at undisputed two-mile king Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown on Sunday, where they renew rivalries in the BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle after clashing at Christmas.

Hurricane Fly held sway that day, although many felt Jezki would have been a little closer had he enjoyed a bit better luck in running.

McCoy told Racing UK: "It's not going to be an easy task taking on Hurricane Fly, that's for sure.

"I'll leave the decision on what I'll ride in the Champion Hurdle (at Cheltenham) until the day before.

"There's a fair chance we won't be stuck for a good jockey for which horse I don't ride. Maybe Barry (Geraghty) might ride the one I don't. We won't be stuck on that front.

"My Tent Or Yours won at Kempton (Christmas Hurdle) and Jezki might show us more on Sunday. There's no doubt Hurricane Fly is still the one to beat, but you've got to be hopeful."

mdwexford

McCoy will ride My Tent Or Yours.

mdwexford

Foxinho wrote: »

Hurricane Fly for me, he has the best pilot on board, knows what it takes to win in Preswick Park on the big day, cant see him losing tbh, MTOY and TNO may be horses for 2015 CH , my money will be going on the Fly

Is that a new place?

hucklebuck

I would be amazed if Mc Coy isnt on My Tent.

I really don't understand all this Jezki bluster, he is a fair way off the other market principles to my mind.

MadHorse

I think on the day Our Connor will be spot on and ready to give HF a run for it. Dessie does not kill them before chelt just look at Hardy Hustace getting beaten in races that were winnable but when the big day came he was ready to roll. delivered 3 years in a row (he will never go down as a great but his trainer is one of the sharpest on the planet and OC will be peaking at chelt.)

ste2010

I'd agree with the above. My prediction is the top 4 will include our Conor, hurricane fly, un de sceaux (if he goes) and Annie power in no particular order

kiers47

If that bet is still on the table premier I'll give some even money as well.

hucklebuck

hucklebuck wrote: »

I really don't understand all this Jezki bluster, he is a fair way off the other market principles to my mind.

Cee Bee might be in the Champion Hurdle instead now :pac:

hawkhead

.

barney4001

On todays running Our Coner must be about the greatest ever Triumph hurdle winner,and when i heard that The Fly had suffered a bruised foot during the week,that Mullins was making a ready made excuse had the Fly been been beaten today

MadHorse

Todays race shoult leave Our Connor perfect for CH. He traveled nicely, jumped really well and even though The fly put a lenght on him after the last chelt probable faster ground along with OC peaking at chelt I'm very happy with the 7's i took earlier

kenco

Think my thoughts on the Champion Hurdle have hardened further after todays race.

Great run and win by the Fly but again ideal conditions. If he turns up in the right mind in March he should win. The ones behind him today will be better but still not good enough on the day if the Fly is at his best but this I think his his last season and 2015 could be historic as the pretenders will have had more time on them.

If I had to pick one to possibly upset the applecart it would be UDS (Annie Power wont be run this year....)

byronbay2

I don't think you can draw too many conclusions from today's race except that HF is as good as ever - speed and stamina to burn on soft ground at Leopardstown. I think he is a more-than-fair price at 3/1 and must have a great chance of winning his 3rd CH in March. I haven't backed him and probably wouldn't until the day at this stage - always great offers on Champion Hurdle day!

My thoughts have crystallised to the extent that I don't think anything outside the top 5 or 6 can win and I don't fancy Jezki or UDS. This leaves the Big 4 and if AP was to not run I would be very happy to dutch HF and TNO at about 5/4. Our Conor would be the only danger in that scenario (don't fancy MTOY to win this year) and I think he still needs to improve a bit - one for next year!

kenco

byronbay2 wrote: »

I don't think you can draw too many conclusions from today's race except that HF is as good as ever - speed and stamina to burn on soft ground at Leopardstown. I think he is a more-than-fair price at 3/1 and must have a great chance of winning his 3rd CH in March. I haven't backed him and probably wouldn't until the day at this stage - always great offers on Champion Hurdle day!

My thoughts have crystallised to the extent that I don't think anything outside the top 5 or 6 can win and I don't fancy Jezki or UDS. This leaves the Big 4 and if AP was to not run I would be very happy to dutch HF and TNO at about 5/4. Our Conor would be the only danger in that scenario (don't fancy MTOY to win this year) and I think he still needs to improve a bit - one for next year!

Yep agree

Small field and ok ground, if the Fly turns up in the right mind I think he will win (again by 2 lengths or so unless he really as Ruby puts its shows them what he is made of). If the ground is good then maybe hes vulnerable.

However 2015 already looks a corker with the ones we know of and whats yet to come from the juveniles this year! Throw Annie Power into the mix (dropping back and not defending the World Hurdle!!!) thats going to be some race!

ste2010

I firmly believe Annie power will run in this race, no chance ricci will let her go to the world hurdle. Mullins is a clever little jester all the same...keeping her and especially un de sceaux in small fields and straight forward races to ensure he has the "not enough" experience angle to defend his view..
Lets think of this scenario a week before the festival
Hurricane fly is injured
Une de sceaux scopes badly
Annie power is entered in the CH and WH
Which one does he and ruby choose?

Straight forward..you could apply the same to UDS...

If they were not being selfish the answer to which race they go to is very simple
Which ever race is the most prestigious that they have a chance in winning.

The ruby factor also applies...he'll bill the options in favour of him racing as many of them as he can in different races. Nothing whatsoever to do with what race they should really go to but when you have 2 experts in the game telling you the same thing it would be very hard not to doubt yourself as an owner

ste2010

I reckon the new ones form may not be as good as people think. My angle for this was due to what i heard about ...I believe McCoy mentioned he will more than likely ride jezki in the CH...that's enough for me

jimjamcos

Ruby is sure to have himself in Richi's good books after going to boring ole Doncaster just to ride AP in a nothing race yesterday. The longer he remains the only man to ride her over jumps, the less chance there is we'll see anyone else on her.

On UDS, running him will be the beating of Hurricane Fly imo (and don't think it'll happen). Not saying UDS will win but if he sets a searing pace, can see him setting it up for a strong travelling Our Conor at Hurricane Fly's expense.

chinguetti

So Mullins has 3 chances in the race but how will he please 3 different owners who may all want to run in the race? Can't see Ruby getting off the Fly so both trainer and jockey will want to keep all horses apart.

If Quevaga wasn't in the Mares race (has anyone heard anything about her yet?), AP would run in that race and he'ld aim UDS to another race at the festival. As they would probably be roaring favourites to win their races, he would have 3 happy owners come March 11th.

He may end up with 3 owners who demand to run in the CH so how he'll handle this will be really interesting.

mdwexford

I think UDS will give the festival a miss.

ste2010

Yep I'd say so...disappointed to be honest

jimjamcos

chinguetti wrote: »

So Mullins has 3 chances in the race but how will he please 3 different owners who may all want to run in the race? Can't see Ruby getting off the Fly so both trainer and jockey will want to keep all horses apart.

If Quevaga wasn't in the Mares race (has anyone heard anything about her yet?), AP would run in that race and he'ld aim UDS to another race at the festival. As they would probably be roaring favourites to win their races, he would have 3 happy owners come March 11th.

He may end up with 3 owners who demand to run in the CH so how he'll handle this will be really interesting.

There's no other race for UDS bar CH. He'll either run it it or skip festival. The latter will happen I'm afraid.

battser

can't believe the bookies didn't cut OC down a bit more on price for this. Took the 6's earlier today and am delighted with it. Really think he is gonna be something special. If Jezki turns over todays form in March I will back the nearest 100-1 shot at 100 ew at the festival.
HF still the one to beat on form and rightly so.

tipster

jezki has no right to even go to cheltenham badly found out today

paddy no 11

Jezki and TNO will be out the front trying to stretch the race out from the start, OC and MTOY will be happy with that no one will take the fly in a sprint. The blue print to beat him is there from last years race.

Mullins cant let UDS be there with them tragic for us punters as would love to see them all line up

Panrich

And what if the owner of Un De Sceaux wants his horse to take his chance (and who could blame him)? After all, 'he who pays the piper, calls the tune'.