Severe Wind Storm late 26th-27th December

Redsunset

That warning on Meteoalarm is from Met Éireann. I think the warning is good.

Red Nissan

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yes would agree with that WC, stormy looks a cert what's not sure is whether it'll be an exceptional event.
The South and West look to get the worst of it, storm surge for Cork anyone!!

We have half a moon so moderate and ebbing and low tide expected during storm's maxima, so again moderate. It is a SW event again moderate, we are vulnerable to the Easterly events for floods and storm surge, we even escaped the tsunami that massacred Innishannon 150 years or so ago.

maquiladora

The weather warning is the lead story on the radio news : sustained winds of 75 km/h, gusts of 120 km/h.

Which would be weaker than the models suggest. Though the models have fooled us already this week....

Red Nissan

maquiladora wrote: »

there were plenty of trees blown down even though it wasn't really a "severe" event at all.

Roger that whole statement, a Christmas Eve a few years ago Cork was hit by a blizzard like it never saw before, at least in one hundred years, results was almost all tree were blown over, ALL roads blocked multiple times by multiple tress and hedge falls.

Fota Gardens devastated almost tall tress in arboretum blown down some over one hundred years old.

dopolahpec

kerrywez wrote: »

As i have stated before I have lost all faith in ME to do anything till the very last second, which is not forecasting, it is more like reporting the situation as it is at that time.

Even Neteoalarm is giving us more warning, maybe not in their colour, but in their explanation of the colour

Err Met Eireann have had an orange warning up for days? What should they do knock on people's doors? Stand on hills shouting?

dopolahpec

I think Met Eireann have handled this well. They've been talking about it all week and advising of actual storm conditions with possible structural damage. They have a nationwide amber alert. Should there be a red alert issued?

Rather than saying 'this needs a red alert'..could people please explain why so? And where? And because of what available information?

maquiladora

From the Met Office high seas forecast.

Shannon

Storm warnings - Issued: 0800 UTC Thu 26 Dec

At 260000 UTC, low 49 north 38 west 975 expected 55 north 13 west 943 by 270000 UTC. Winds will reach storm force 10 between 50 and 350 miles of the centre in the southern semi-circle throughout, and also violent storm force 11 between 100 and 250 miles of the centre in the southern quadrant throughout.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

The weather warning is the lead story on the radio news : sustained winds of 75 km/h, gusts of 120 km/h.

Which would be weaker than the models suggest. Though the models have fooled us already this week....

Which is why I presume forecasting is more than just a computer model output..met Eireann I presume use their own knowledge before deciding on their warning level.

kerrywez

My oh my you all seem to not like our so call met service being run down, but if my memory serves me right, there are many on here who agree with me when it comes to them giving early enough warnings. As a matter of fact the explanation given for an orange waning on the ME sight is not anywhere near as severe as that given on Meteoalarm. Time will tell who is right, by now, with less than 6 hours till the storm is supposed to hit here, I would have thought that little time to put a red warning, as suggested by the experts on here, is very small. And You can keep winking Jerry and his mates, I shall take my advice from here, and MT in particular.

Anyway, I shall say no more on the subject unless I feel there is a need to.

Wez

kerrywez

maquiladora wrote: »

From the Met Office high seas forecast.

About time too, but better than nothing.

Regards Wez

kerrywez

kerrywez wrote: »

About time too, but better than nothing.

Regards Wez

Sorry seems I got that wrong it was the UK Met Office which issued that warning.

Can't be ME they are saying possible violent storm 11.

Regards Wez

maquiladora

kerrywez wrote: »

Sorry seems I got that wrong it was the UK Met Office which issued that warning.

Can't be ME they are saying possible violent storm 11.

Regards Wez

Met Eireann sea area forecast does mention force 11.

Of course these are winds at sea. In the historic Dec 1997 storm Cork and Shannon airports had violent storm force winds. We are not looking at something like that extreme happening today!

ninebeanrows

6z GFS ups the ante a little bit.

Looks like a widespread storm. Maximum gusts near 140km/hr but suggest there could be higher gusts in peak gusts on exposed coasts.

What is noteworthy is the chance of widespread inland gusts to 110-120km/hr. Which is very uncommon.

Also storm only slowly abating tomorrow afternoon.

A red warning advised from me on latest output.

dopolahpec

kerrywez wrote: »

My oh my you all seem to not like our so call met service being run down, but if my memory serves me right, there are many on here who agree with me when it comes to them giving early enough warnings. As a matter of fact the explanation given for an orange waning on the ME sight is not anywhere near as severe as that given on Meteoalarm. Time will tell who is right, by now, with less than 6 hours till the storm is supposed to hit here, I would have thought that little time to put a red warning, as suggested by the experts on here, is very small. And You can keep winking Jerry and his mates, I shall take my advice from here, and MT in particular.

Anyway, I shall say no more on the subject unless I feel there is a need to.

Wez

Met Eireann cannot become regarded as the boy who cried wolf. On a rising scale of severity it is of the utmost importance than the integrity of the red warning is maintained for a widespread emergency situation. Today's storm will be bad but it's certainly not far past the marginal side of a red warning (if at all) for a few places on the basis of publically available weather data. It has been many years since we've had a really really bad storm in Ireland yet if you get caught up in the hype on rolling news channels, tabloids and indeed message boards you can end up thinking that youtube footage of a trampoline rolling down a road is an indication of 'hurricane force red warning extreme weather'

It may well be the case we see red warning later. But if so, met Eireann have not made a blunder by not calling it earlier. They have to make a call on probabilities

Pangea

How come M.T labelled this an extreme event, is it because its hitting the south where they are not used to these winds or because of the heavy rain accompanying it? The wind gusts predicted aren't as strong as the ones predicted for two storms ago.

Storm 10

last night in the sea area forecast Met Eireann said "backing westerly and increasing to violent storm force 11" would that not warrant a red warning

maquiladora

06Z GFS catches up with the stronger winds the hi res models had been showing since yesterday.

A very stormy night ahead for the Kerry coast.

Cliky

What time is this hitting dublin

sunflower3

Met eireann have yellow warning now, down from orange.

Lumi

They've just updated the warning

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Countrywide
Update
Becoming very stormy this evening with gale force southeast winds veering southwest early tonight and further veering westerly early tomorrow morning. Severe and damaging gusts of 110 or 130 km/hr expected, with violent gusts of 140 or 150km/hr in some exposed western and southern coastal areas.
Very high seas also with significant danger of coastal flooding also.
Winds moderating Friday afternoon and evening but gales continuing in the north until early Friday night.

Issued:Thursday 26 December 2013 09:00
Valid:Thursday 26 December 2013 16:00 to Friday 27 December 2013 15:00

ninebeanrows

Pangea wrote: »

How come M.T labelled this an extreme event, is it because its hitting the south where they are not used to these winds or because of the heavy rain accompanying it? The wind gusts predicted aren't as strong as the ones predicted for two storms ago.

A much more widespread area is going to be hit by severe winds. The severe winds 2 events ago was affecting coastal districts of the west/northwest.

Widespread gusts to 70mph are more than possible, which is significant.

JanuarySnowstor

Met Eireann haven't done a whole lot wrong BUT.....as all models this morning continue with the storm and as WC says the 06z ups the ante a red alert is needed for at least the southern half of the country

ninebeanrows

Lumi wrote: »

They've just updated the warning

Certainly going by the update, they meant it to be red rather than yellow

Oscar Bravo

That met eireann warning should be red. They will fix it soon.

dopolahpec

Weathercheck wrote: »

Certainly going by the update, they meant it to be red rather than yellow

Yeah see that now

JanuarySnowstor

Yes typo error there folks we have our red alert.
The pubs wont be happy tonight

maquiladora

HIRLAM has been rock solid on track and intensity since 06Z yesterday. The latest run continues that trend.

I cant see any significant downgrades or track changes happening now.

kerrywez

Lumi wrote: »

They've just updated the warning

No Need to say more. I have even put a little Jerry at the top for you. Well I never, some way to go about an update, but respect to ME and well done.

Wez

Villain

Updated to red now

Lumi

Weathercheck wrote: »

Certainly going by the update, they meant it to be red rather than yellow

Thought as much given the text of the update
Should be 'interesting' over this side of the country later tonight